Is Northern Colorado Still an Advanced Technology Economy? Professor Martin Shields Regional Economics Institute Colorado State University

Is Northern Colorado Still an Advanced Technology Economy? Professor Martin Shields Regional Economics Institute Colorado State University

Well, is it? Yes!! Sorta kinda

The story High-tech jobs and workers make up a greater share of the local economy than they do the nation s Yet regional technology sectors have shed a lot of jobs over the past 10 years, while the national job count has remained relatively flat Technology is transitioning nationally, and that has important local implications

Outline How is the regional economy doing? A closer look at high-tech A few words about investment What about skills versus industries? What does this mean for the region?

How is the regional economy doing?

Regional job growth outpaces state and nation: 1990-2012 Employment Share of 1990 Totals 100% Fort Collins-Loveland Colorado United States 174% 155% 125% 177% 152% 122% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Source: BLS (CES) Dot-Com Recession Great Recession

Health, consumers and manufacturing(!) driving the local recovery Ambulatory Health Care Services Food Services and Drinking Places 1,082 1,046 Administrative and Support Services 949 Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Hospitals Merchant Wholesalers Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores Machinery Manufacturing Accommodation 389 324 293 288 288 280 255 Region: +5,200 jobs Source: EMSI-QCEW 10 Leading Job Growth Industries Fort Collins-Loveland: 2009-12

Manufacturing(!) driving local decline (5,821) (1,556) (201) (212) (218) (220) (224) (275) (406) (418) (700) (724) Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Telecommunications Rental and Leasing Services Miscellaneous Manufacturing Wood Product Manufacturing Publishing Industries (except Internet) Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Construction of Buildings Specialty Trade Contractors Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing Source: EMSI-QCEW 10 Largest Declining Job Growth Industries Fort Collins-Loveland: 2001-12

Regional Summary Healthcare continues as an important regional driver Will be accentuated by Obama-care and growing and aging population As the region grows its economy is diversifying Looking more like a self-contained city Manufacturing is too general of a term

A closer look at advanced-tech Industries where science and technology occupations are at least twice the share of total employment than average and Colorado is an important player. (BLS and CDLE-LMI)

The great moderation of the Colorado Advanced Technology economy 15% 10% 11% Change in advanced tech employment from previous year 5% 0% -5% 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 3% 2% CO US -10% -15% -13% Source: BLS-CES and CDLE-LMI

Another view: Advanced Tech Employment Relative to 1990 The maturing of an industry 177% 156% 157% 146% Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Advanced Tech Total Colorado Employment Source: BLS-CES and CDLE-LMI

Advanced technology s share of stateemployment back to pre dot-com level 12% 10% 9.6% 8% 7.5% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: CDLE-LMI

Regional advanced technology declining faster than state and nation Employment Trends by Advanced-Tech Industry: 2001-12 Source: EMSI using CDLE-LMI definition of Advanced Tech

A few words about investment

The coasts with the most: 2012 venture capital deals, by city Source: theatlanticcities.com

And their share of all VC is growing over time Silicon Valley NY Metro New England SouthWest San Diego LA/Orange County Midwest Texas DC/Metroplex Northwest Colorado Sacramento/N.Cal North Central South Central Upstate NY Philadelphia Metro Southeast 90% 186% 180% 166% 158% 150% 144% 141% 139% 118% 235% 231% 226% 212% 280% 260% US 326% Source: Price Waterhouse Coopers VC 2010-12:VC 1995-97, by Region

When all is said and done, venture capital and start-up activity today is associated with denser, more talent-driven, more diverse and innovative metros, reflecting the increasingly spiky nature of America's economic landscape. Richard Florida, July 9 2013

The changing regional high-tech workforce In 2001 the region had a 75% higher concentration of high-tech workers than the nation. Today it is 53%.

High-tech occupation change: 2001-12 1% 0% (1%) (2%) +24,274 jobs Fort Collins-Loveland US Colorado -2,032 jobs (3%) (4%) (5%) -524 jobs Source: EMSI using BLS (2005) definition

Largest gainers and decliners: 2001-12 Biological Scientists Conservation Scientists and Foresters Natural Sciences Managers Database and Systems Administrators and Biological Technicians 157 115 108 90 85 Electrical and Electronics Engineers Architectural and Engineering Managers (126) (142) Engineering Technicians, Except Drafters Computer Hardware Engineers (249) (214) Software Developers and Programmers (437) Source: EMSI using BLS (2005) definition Change in occupations

High-tech occupation growth leaders due to competitive strength (projected) 1. Biological scientists 2. Conservation scientists and foresters 3. Natural sciences managers 4. Chemists and materials scientists 5. Biological technicians 6. Computer occupations, all other 7. Agricultural and food scientists 8. Electrical and electronics engineers 9. Miscellaneous life, physical, and social science technicians 10. Medical scientists Source: EMSI

Regional implications High-tech remains a critical part of the economic base Yet industry prospects suggest many core companies are relatively mature And international competition is fierce

Regional implications Although region is growing, high-tech still concentrated nationally in places with larger numbers of competing and complementary businesses

Regional implications Creativity and user experience are becoming a larger part of nation s high-tech sector

Regional implications Projected growth more aligned with physical and environmental sciences

Professor Martin Shields Regional Economics Institute Colorado State University csurei.colostate.edu IS NORTHERN COLORADO STILL AN ADVANCED-TECHNOLOGY ECONOMY? Prepared for the Future of Jobs Summit. Sponsored by the Fort Collins Chamber of Commerce. July 31 2013. 2013