BrazilianAutomotive Industry Fernando Iervolino
The Brazilian automotive industry represents almost 20% of its GDP
Worldwide vehicle fleet ( x 1.000 ) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 China: 70.000 in 2009 (Estimated), and growing fast! Source: Internet Share in 2009 (without China) United States 221.475 223.446 229.620 231.390 237.243 241.194 244.166 247.265 250.239 248.460 37% 5% Japan 72.649 73.408 73.989 74.214 74.656 75.686 75.859 75.715 75.528 75.324 11% 1% Germany 47.307 47.975 48.225 48.564 48.915 49.223 49.742 44.021 44.180 44.633 7% -9% Italy 36.165 36.995 37.682 38.476 38.224 38.942 39.877 40.368 40.895 41.323 6% 8% France 33.813 34.597 35.144 35.628 36.039 36.298 36.661 37.033 37.212 37.438 6% 4% United Kingdom 31.248 31.940 32.734 33.390 33.883 34.394 34.935 35.354 35.538 35.217 5% 4% 2004-2009 Growth Mexico 15.318 17.020 18.418 19.368 20.360 21.550 24.185 25.868 28.208 29.704 4% 46% BRAZIL 19.310 20.093 20.769 21.357 22.172 23.023 24.069 25.596 27.481 29.643 4% 34% Spain 21.427 22.312 23.048 23.726 24.202 25.158 26.227 27.174 27.613 27.633 4% 14% Canada 17.571 17.783 18.267 18.495 18.673 18.909 19.578 20.071 20.520 20.792 3% 11% South Korea 12.060 12.915 13.949 14.587 14.934 15.397 15.895 16.428 16.795 17.326 3% 16% Australia 12.025 12.126 12.451 12.786 13.137 13.498 13.896 14.268 14.729 15.051 2% 15% Argentina 6.953 6.947 6.837 6.930 6.997 7.005 7.682 8.258 8.460 8.955 1% 28% Netherlands 7.190 7.389 7.706 7.894 8.220 8.369 8.483 8.692 8.908 8.920 1% 9% South Africa 5.713 5.805 6.140 6.132 6.211 6.470 6.893 7.603 7.814 8.007 1% 29% Belgium 5.222 5.299 5.353 5.417 5.487 5.553 5.636 5.719 5.865 5.953 1% 8% Sweden 4.387 4.428 4.466 4.511 4.567 4.628 4.696 4.776 4.802 4.829 1% 6% Austria 4.493 4.584 4.335 4.409 4.472 4.524 4.579 4.628 4.676 4.757 1% 6% 576.326 587.063 601.135 609.277 620.396 631.826 645.065 650.844 661.471 665.974 7% Source: Anfavea
World Production ofvehicles ( x 1.000 ) Country 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Share in 2010 2005-2010 Growth China 2.334 3.287 4.444 5.234 5.708 7.278 8.883 9.299 13.791 18.265 24% 220% Japan 9.777 10.257 10.286 10.512 10.800 11.484 11.596 11.576 7.934 9.626 12% -11% United States 11.425 12.280 12.115 11.989 11.947 11.292 10.781 8.694 5.731 7.761 10% -35% Germany 5.692 5.469 5.507 5.570 5.758 5.820 6.213 6.046 5.210 5.906 8% 3% South Korea 2.946 3.148 3.178 3.469 3.699 3.840 4.086 3.827 3.513 4.272 6% 15% BRAZIL 1.817 1.792 1.828 2.317 2.531 2.612 2.980 3.216 3.183 3.646 5% 44% India 815 895 1.161 1.511 1.639 2.017 2.254 2.332 2.642 3.537 5% 116% Spain 2.850 2.855 3.030 3.012 2.752 2.777 2.890 2.542 2.170 2.388 3% -13% Mexico 1.841 1.805 1.575 1.577 1.684 2.046 2.095 2.168 1.561 2.345 3% 39% France 3.628 3.702 3.620 3.666 3.549 3.169 3.016 2.569 2.048 2.227 3% -37% Canada 2.533 2.629 2.553 2.711 2.688 2.572 2.579 2.082 1.490 2.071 3% -23% Thailand 459 585 742 928 1.123 1.194 1.287 1.394 999 1.645 2% 46% Iran 323 315 582 789 817 904 997 1.051 1.394 1.599 2% 96% Russia 1.251 1.220 1.279 1.386 1.355 1.503 1.660 1.790 725 1.403 2% 4% United Kingdom 1.685 1.823 1.846 1.856 1.803 1.650 1.750 1.650 1.090 1.393 2% -23% Turkey 271 347 533 823 879 988 1.099 1.147 870 1.095 1% 25% Czec Republic 465 447 442 448 602 855 938 947 983 1.076 1% 79% Poland 348 311 322 601 613 715 785 946 879 869 1% 42% Italy 1.580 1.427 1.322 1.142 1.038 1.212 1.284 1.024 843 857 1% -17% Argentina 236 159 169 260 320 432 545 597 513 717 1% 124% Indonesia 279 299 322 408 501 296 412 601 465 705 1% 41% Malaysia 359 395 344 472 563 503 442 531 489 568 1% 1% SouthAfrica 407 404 421 450 525 588 534 563 374 472 1% -10% Belgium 1.187 1.057 904 900 927 918 834 724 537 338 0% -64% Australia 319 344 413 411 395 331 335 330 227 243 0% -38% Sweden 289 276 323 340 339 333 366 308 156 217 0% -36% Others 1.188 1.466 1.402 1.714 1.996 2.006 2.498 2.566 1.887 2.369 3% 19% TOTAL 56.304 58.994 60.663 64.496 66.551 69.335 73.139 70.520 61.704 77.610 17% Source: Anfavea
World Production of Vehicles (x 1.000) 20.000 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 China Japan USA Germany South Korea Brazil India Source: Anfavea China Japan United States Germany South Korea BRAZIL India Spain Mexico France Canada Thailand Iran Russia United Kingdom Turkey Czec Republic Poland Italy Argentina Indonesia Malaysia SouthAfrica
Growth potential Production in 2010 (x1.000) 2005-2010 Growth Inhabitants per vehicle in 2009 China 18.265 220% (27 in 2008) Italy 857 124% 1,5 India 3.537 116% Thailand 1.645 96% Turkey 1.095 79% Canada 2.071 46% 1,6 BRAZIL 3.646 44% 6,5 Czec Republic 1.076 42% 2 Argentina 717 41% 4,5 Others 2.369 39% United Kingdom 1.393 25% 1,8 Sweden 217 19% 1,9 South Korea 4.272 15% 2,8 Iran 1.599 4% Germany 5.906 3% 1,8 Indonesia 705 1% Malaysia 568-10% Japan 9.626-11% 1,7 Spain 2.388-13% 1,7 Poland 869-17% 2 Russia 1.403-23% France 2.227-23% 1,7 United States 7.761-35% 1,2 Australia 243-36% 1,5 Mexico 2.345-37% 3,6 Belgium 338-38% 1,8 SouthAfrica 472-64% Source: Anfavea
Inhabitants per Vehicle 10 China 2006: 36 2007: 31 2008: 27 Source: Internet 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 BRAZIL Argentina Mexivo South Korea BRAZIL Argentina Mexico South Korea Czec Republic Poland Sweden United Kingdom Austria Germany Belgium Spain Japan France Canada Italy Australia United States 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Anfavea
Mercosul Automotive Scenario 2010 ROLAND BERGER 2010: In 10 years Brazil jumped from 10th position to 4th 5,5 million of vehicles will be potential production in 2015??? Risk: Importation of 1 million of vehicles in 10 Challenges: Infra-structure; high taxes, bureaucracy and Brazil high cost 14 12 10 8 13,8 Light Vehicles Sales Ranking 2010 Million of units 11,5 6 4,4 4 2 0 3,7 Mercosul 3,2 2,8 2,4 2,3 2,2 1,9 1,6 Other countries on BRIC are the Brazilian's main competitors Investment of 19 BUSD until 2015 on whole automotive supply-chain Source: Roland Berger
BRAZIL Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) Production 2.010 Plants Cars LCV Total VW 4 968.649 98.456 1.067.105 31% Fiat 3 576.307 181.111 757.418 22% GM 4 530.977 120.074 651.051 19% Ford 4 236.862 81.507 318.369 9% Renault 3 161.525 10.930 172.455 5% PSA Peugeot-Citroen 2 132.860 16.612 149.472 4% Honda 1 131.455 131.455 4% Toyota 2 64.588 64.588 2% Mitsubishi 1 37.558 37.558 1% Hyundai 1 24.777 24.777 1% Nissan (Renault) 10.491 7.664 18.155 1% Mercebes Benz 3 12.260 12.260 0% Iveco 1 3.651 3.651 0% Agrale 4 319 319 0% 82% Total 33 2.825.974 582.659 3.408.633 Source: Anfavea
LICENCED Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles made in Brazil Cars LCV Total 2007-2010 Growth 2000 1.075.832 161.464 1.237.296 2001 1.176.557 159.375 1.335.932 2002 1.143.376 139.761 1.283.137 2003 1.121.462 152.775 1.274.237 2004 1.226.435 192.102 1.418.537 2005 1.325.498 208.461 1.533.959 2006 1.472.695 220.024 1.692.719 2007 1.790.212 277.111 2.067.323 2008 1.962.369 337.685 2.300.054 2009 2.160.421 362.893 2.523.314 29% 2010 2.213.617 458.040 2.671.657 Source: Anfavea
LICENCED Made in Brazil +Imported Cars LCV Total Made in Brazil Imported 2000 1.176.774 227.059 1.403.833 88% 12% 2001 1.295.096 216.091 1.511.187 88% 12% 2002 1.218.546 177.595 1.396.141 92% 8% 2003 1.168.681 177.649 1.346.330 95% 5% 2004 1.258.446 219.672 1.478.118 96% 4% 2005 1.369.182 249.765 1.618.947 95% 5% 2006 1.556.220 275.492 1.831.712 92% 8% 2007 1.975.518 365.514 2.341.032 88% 12% 2008 2.193.277 477.714 2.670.991 86% 14% 2009 2.474.764 533.978 3.008.742 84% 16% 2010 2.644.704 684.244 3.328.948 80% 20% Source: Anfavea
Capacity installed & Investment byautomakers-2010 (x1.000 vehicles/year) AUTOMAKERS Currentinstalled capacity (A) New installed capacity (B) (B-A)/A % When it will be invested Investment Bil BRL Ford - Camaçari 250 300 20% 2015 4.0 Mitsubishi 50 100 100% 2015 0.8 Peugeot Citröen 160 240 50% 2013 1.4 Volksvagen 840 1.000 19% 2014 3.4 Mercedes Benz 65 75 15% 2011 1.2 GM- Gravataí 230 380 65% 2012 2.0 GM SJC/SCS/MC 430 530 25% 2015 3.1 Renault Nissan 200 -- -- -- -- Iveco 40 -- -- -- -- Fiat 800 Next Slide Hyundai 68 Next Slide Toyota 70 Next Slide Honda 135 Next Slide Source: Dana Channel, AutoData, Sindipeças Forecast, Investimentos e Notícias, O Globo, Jornal do Brasil Consolidated byhöganäs Brasil Ltda
New facilities and New automakers in Brazil (x 1.000 vehicles(engines)/year) AUTOMAKERS NewInstalled capacity (B) When it will start Investment Bil BRL Chery - Jacareí 160 2013 1,2 Toyota - Sorocaba 150 2012 1,6 Hyundai- Piracicaba 100 2012 1,1 Honda- Argentina 30 (done) 2010 0,2 Sany?? 0,3 Chanae Lifan??? NC² Global LLC??? Total new investments already announced 4,4 AUTOMAKERS ENGINES NewInstalled capacity (B) When it will start Investment Bil BRL GM (Engines)- Joinville 120 2012 0,4 Fiat (Engines) C. Largo 330 (done) 2010 0,3 Total new investments already announced 0,7 Total of investments 5.1 bil BRL Source: Dana Channel, AutoData, Sindipeças Forecast, Investimentos e Notícias, O Globo, Jornal do Brasil Consolidated byhöganäs Brasil Ltda
Investments in new automotive facilities in Brazil 8,1 BBRL (5,1 BUSD) 3,00 BBRL 2,32 BBRL NC2 320MBRL TOYOTA 1 BBRL HYUNDAI 1 BBRL 1,36 BBRL SUZUKI 100MBRL DAF 336MBRL CHERY 700MBRL FIAT 3 BBRL 0,65 BBRL LIFAN 150MBRL JAC MOTORS 500MBRL 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Dinheiro Magazine Aug, 8th 2011
Autoparts capacity & new models investments in Brazil 26 BBRL (16 BUSD) Renault 1,00 BBRL Volvo 0,42 BBRL PSA 1,40 BBRL GM 3,00 BBRL HONDA 0,36 BBRL FORD 4,97 BBRL FIAT 3,80 BBRL AUTOPARTS 10,80 BBRL 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Automotive Business June 2011
Total investment of the automotive industry in Brazil 5,1 BUSD New auto facilities 16 BUSD New models Capacity Tiers 21,1 BUSD Total investments
Vehicles Production Forecast - Brazil: 2011 2015 (x 1.000.000) 3,67 3,88 4,08 4,29 4,45 +5,7% +5,2% +5,1% +3,7% +21,3% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Sindipeças Forecast August 2011
AUTOPARTS Brazil - Balance of Trade for Autoparts
Autoparts Imports
Autoparts imports
Autoparts exports
Autoparts exports
Brazil Autoparts Gross Operating Revenues 25,5% 42%
Powder Metallurgy Parts producers in Brazil Source: Mazza, Pedro Augusto Höganäs Brasil Ltda.
BRAZIL Source: Mazza, Pedro Augusto Höganäs Brasil Ltda.
BRAZIL Source: Mazza, Pedro Augusto Höganäs Brasil Ltda.
BRAZIL -PM parts per vehicle Scenario 1: VW, Fiat, GM and Ford are in Brazil for over 30 years and are the main customers of Brazilian PM parts. 2010 Production Cars LCV Total VW 968.649 98.456 1.067.105 Fiat 576.307 181.111 757.418 2.793.943 GM 530.977 120.074 651.051 Ford 236.862 81.507 318.369 Scenario 2: Including Renault and PSA (Peugeot-Citroen) 2010 Production Cars LCV Total VW 968.649 98.456 1.067.105 Fiat 576.307 181.111 757.418 GM 530.977 120.074 651.051 3.115.870 Ford 236.862 81.507 318.369 Renault 161.525 10.930 172.455 PSA 132.860 16.612 149.472 Total Steel and Iron Powder (ton) used in Brazil 69,9% for automotive industries Estimated Kg of BrazilianPM parts per vehicle 24.358 17.026 6,1 Total Steel and Iron Powder (ton) used in Brazil 69,9% for automotive industries Estimated Kg of BrazilianPM parts per vehicle 24.358 17.026 5,5... But Brazilian vehicles also have imported PM parts, like sinterforged connecting rods, VVT rotor, water pump pulley, crankshaft sprockets... Precise figures can only be obtained joining information with the automakers
Brazilian Automotive Industry Fernando Iervolino, PMT fernando.iervolino@metalurgiadopo.com.br www.metalurgiadopo.com.br Sources Anfavea www.anfavea.com.br Sindipeças www.sindipeças.org.br Höganäs Brasil Ltda www.hoganas.com.br Automotive Business June 2011 - www.automotivebusiness.com.br/ MDIC Ministry of development of the Industry and the Commerce - www.mdic.gov.br