Introduction of P/C Insurance Market in China
Context Economic Environment in China P/C Insurance Market in China Development Status Market Potential P/C Insurance Regulation in China Overview Solvency Regulation Reserve Regulation
Rapid Economy Growth Economic Environment in China The world's second-largest economy since 2010. GDP Development of China in Last Decade ( RMB Billion ) Nominal GDP Growth Rate of Real GDP 60000 14.2% 50000 12.7% 11.3% 51932 10.0% 10.1% 10.4% 40000 9.6% 9.2% 9.30% 40151 7.80% 30000 26581 20000 10000 13582 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
Economic Environment in China Rapid Economy Growth Consumption and investment are rising continuously and rapidly. And their growth rates reach 16.3% and 21.3%, respectively. Net export maintains a stable growth. ( RMB Billion ) 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 11483 13268 15700 18392 21031 Fixed Assets Investment 17283 22460 27812 31149 37468 Amount of Export 10039 8203 10702 12324 12716
P/C Insurance Market in China Development Status Market Structure Highly Concentrated Market Investment Rapid Growth Premium, Sum Insured, Assets and Equity, Companies Profitability Auto Insurance
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Market Structure -- Companies Foundation of new insurance companies must been approved by CIRC, with at least 0.2 billion RMB registered capital. Insurance companies must been organized as limited liability company or wholly state-owned company. By 2012, there are 11 insurance groups, 138 insurance companies, and 16 insurance asset management companies in China. Numbers of insurance companies in 2012 Foreign Re, 5 Domestic Re, 3 Foreign Life, 30 Domestic P/C, 42 Domestic Life, 45 Foreign P/C, 21
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Highly Concentrated Market Top 3 cover over 65% market share in 2012. PICC, the largest P/C company in China, ranks the first in Asia, and second in the world, among all single brand P/C companies. Auto insurance accounts for over 70% marker share in 2012. Company Direct Premium Written 2012 (RMB Billion) Market Share Cumulated Market Share PICC 193 34.9% 34.9% Pin An 99 17.9% 52.8% CPIC 70 12.6% 65.3% China United 25 4.4% 69.8% China Life 24 4.3% 74.0% Coverage Direct Premium Written 2012 (RMB Billion) Market Share Cumulated Market Share Commercial Auto 289 52.3% 52.3% CTPL 111 20.1% 72.4% Enterprise Property 36 6.5% 78.9% Agriculture 24 4.4% 83.3% Liability 18 3.3% 86.6%
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Investment Insurance Industry Investment Portfolio in 2011 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Return on Investment 4.3% 3.1% 2.7% 3.0% 3.6% 5.8% 12.2% 6.4% 4.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% Funds 5.3% Other Stocks 8.8% 6.9% Bonds 47.1% Cash at bank 32.0%
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Rapid Growth -- Premium The growth rate of P/C direct written premium reaches 22.6%. Growth trend tends to be stable. Direct Written Premium of P/C Insurance Sector 600 ( RMB Billion ) 553 500 400 300 245 299 403 478 200 100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Rapid Growth -- Sum Insured The growth rate of Sum Insured reaches 22.3%. Sum Insured 450000 400000 350000 ( RMB Billion ) 369273 419605 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 187562 258332 264300 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Rapid Growth -- Assets and Equity Assets and equity of P/C industry increase by 19.7% and 42.3%, respectively, in 2012. 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 ( RMB Billion ) Assets and Equity of P/C Industry 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Assets 469 489 584 792 948 Equity 50 69 97 155 221
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Rapid Growth -- Companies 65 60 Number of P/C Insurance Companies 59 62 55 52 53 50 47 45 40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Profitability Underwriting profit has been falling since 2010. The most profitable year in underwriting is 2011. Combined ratio jumped 4.26% from 2011 to 2013. ( RMB Billion ) 35 25 15 5-5 -15 Underwriting Profit and Combined Ratio 106.7% 104.5% 97.3% 95.3% 97.2% 99.5% 21.5% 18.6% 2.8% 13.6% -16.2% -13-10 8 18 12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan.&Feb. Underwriting Profit Combined Ratio ROE 110% 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% -10% -30%
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Profitability Decomposition of combined ratio Combined Ratio = Loss Ratio + Expense Ratio Loss/Expense Ratio 80% 60% 40% 20% Combined Ratio 108% 104% 100% 96% 92% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan.&Fe b. Loss Ratio 66.3% 63.1% 61.2% 61.3% 63.2% Expense Ratio 38.2% 34.2% 34.0% 36.0% 36.3% Combined Ratio 104.5% 97.3% 95.3% 97.2% 99.5% 88%
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Decomposition of Loss Ratio Loss _ Ratio Claim _ Incurred Earned _ Pr emium Claim _ Incurred Number _ of _ Claims Number _ of _ Claims Number _ of _ Policies Earned _ Pr emium Number _ of _ Policies Payment per claim Claim frequency Premium per policy
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Auto Insurance Auto insurance accounts for over 70% marker share in 2012, with rising loss ratio. Claim severity in 2012 increased by 3.4%. Compensation for body injury went up by 10%; Auto parts price rose by 10%; Hourly wage for Mechanic increased by 13.5%. Claim frequency in 2012 increased by 2.3%. NCD became less and less effective on reducing claim frequency. Deductible clauses were not strictly enforced. Competition between companies got more intense.
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Development Status Auto Insurance Premium adequacy is declining. Discount rate rises since 2010. Premium per policy has a slight growth of 0.78%, caused by rapid increase in sum insured of commercial insurance (18.68%). 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% Growth Trend of Discount Rate 2009 2010 2011 2012Q1 2012 Q1-Q2 2012 Q1-Q3 2012 Discount Rate 18.2% 14.6% 15.9% 17.5% 17.9% 18.0% 18.2%
P/C Insurance Market in China Market Potential Penetration and Density of P/C Insurance Sector Changing Coverage Structure Oversupply and Undersupply of Products Enormous Demands
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Market Potential Penetration and Density of P/C Insurance Sector Penetration in China is 17% of U.S. Density is only 3% of U.S. Top Ten Countries by P/C Direct Premiums Written (2011) Nonlife P/C Insurance P/C Insurance Rank Country Premiums Penetration Density 1 $667,107 U.S. 4.44% $2,126 2 $131,292 Germany 4.26% $1,615 3 $130,741 Japan 2.98% $1,026 4 $109,486 U.K. 4.87% $1,737 5 $98,359 France 4.44% $1,499 6 $87,319 China 0.77% $65 7 $79,722 Netherlands 11.30% $4,765 8 $69,045 Canada 4.97% $2,013 9 $55,426 Italy 3.04% $905 10 $51,223 South Korea 3.30% $1,048
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Market Potential Changing Coverage Structure Over 70% of P/C premium comes from auto insurance. Auto s contribution to premium increment is decreasing. Other coverage is emerging, e.g. agriculture insurance. Contribution of Auto Insurance 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Premium Contribution 69.6% 72.0% 74.6% 73.3% 72.4% Contribution to new business 60.7% 82.9% 82.1% 66.5% 66.7%
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Market Potential Changing Coverage Structure -- Agriculture Premium volume of agriculture insurance ranks No.2 over the world. GR:21.4% Premium (RMB Billion) Premium of Agricultural Insurance Contribution to new business Contribution of Agricultural Insurance 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 11.1 13.4 13.6 17.4 24.1 15.9% 4.3% 0.2% 5.1% 8.9% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Premium of Agricultural Insurance Contribution to new business
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Market Potential Oversupply and Undersupply of Products Over 18,000 products in market, with 90% products barely have premium income. Lack of product innovation; Short of customized products according to region, season or special need of consumers.
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Market Potential Enormous Demands Booming macro economy of China stimulates domestic demand, which leads to rapid development of insurance industry. Growth rate of P/C premium is highly related to growth rate of GDP, with correlation coefficient of 0.8 during past three years. Growth rate of P/C premium and GDP 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Growth Rate of Premium Growth Rate of GDP 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 43.1% 38.1% 37.0% 40.0% 14.3% 17.1% 17.7% 18.7% 15.2% 14.7% 15.1% 15.7% 11.9% 10.3% 10.6% 9.8% 9.7% 9.5% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.4% 7.9% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Market Potential Enormous Demands The world's No. 1 vehicle producer & Emerging stage of vehicle industry. New car sales will continue to stimulate premium growth. New demand of auto insurance emerging Auto insurance is highly related to new car sales, with correlation coefficient 0.94 during 2008-2012. Recently, increasing rate of premium is larger than vehicle sales, which indicates new demand of auto insurance is emerging. Sales of vehicle and Premium of Auto Insurance 48% Increasing Rate 39% 1380 1827 1842 1931 27% 32% 935 17% 14% 170 216 300 350 401 1% 5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sale of Vehicle (Million) Premium of Auto Insurance (RMB Billion) 2009 2010 2011 2012 Increasing rate of auto insurance premium Increasing rate of vehicle sales
Cumulated fixed investment 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 P/C Insurance Market in China -- Market Potential Enormous Demands Increasing fixed Investments demand engineering insurance Correlation coefficient of cumulated fixed investment and sum insured of engineering insurance is 0.93 during 2010-2012. Foreign trade demands export credit insurance Correlation coefficient of gross export value and premium of export credit insurance is 0.7 during 2010-2012. (RMB Billion) 20000 16000 12000 8000 4000 y = 0.0008x 2 + 0.1674x + 853.11 R² = 0.8945 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0-1000 1000 3000 5000 Sum insured of engineering insurance Gross export value Premium of export credit insurance
P/C Insurance Market in China -- Market Potential Enormous Demands Premium volume of agriculture insurance ranks No.2 over the world. Potential Crop insurance covers for 40% of arable area, with some region under 10%. Start-up stage of livestock Insurance, forest insurance. Agricultural insurance act officially carried out on March 1 st, 2013 Focus on crop insurance, livestock Insurance, forest insurance Supporting policy for seed production insurance, fishery insurance, agricultural machinery insurance, farm house insurance and Corporation of agriculture-related credit and insurance.
P/C Insurance Regulation in China Overview Solvency regulation Reserve regulation
P/C Insurance Regulation in China Regulation Scheme: Three Pillars Solvency Establish dynamic solvency regulation system, complete actuarial system, unified statistical method and valuation standards. Corporation governance Establish corporate governance structure with general meeting, board of directors, board of supervisors and manager group which have their own responsibility, cooperate and counterbalance with each other. Market behavior Protection of consumers interests Regulation of affiliate transaction of insurance companies, insurance sellers behavior, customers information management and etc.
P/C Insurance Regulation in China Regulation with Chinese Characteristics Adapting to international trend Accounting principles Actuarial technologies Solvency Adapting to the emerging market Consideration of rapid growth and market order Protection of consumer s rights and interests Consumer Protection Bureau, including over 4400 Insurance Consumer Affairs Committees. Consumer hotline specialized in insurance: 12378 Products regulation Improper products lead to many market problems directly or indirectly Pre-sale review system of insurance product Promoting rating mechanism reformation
P/C Insurance Regulation in China Five Pillars of Non-life Insurance Risk Regulation Core capital Cash flow Premium retained should be no more than 4 times of the sum of book capital and provident fund. The cash flow indexes of the insurance market, especially of the non-life investment insured productions should been under regulation. Asset-liability matching Asset-Liability management committee has been founded in 2013, doing research to establish a preliminary regulation system. Solvency Reserving
P/C Insurance Regulation in China -- Solvency Overview of Solvency Regulation Position History The core of insurance regulation Stage 1 of China Solvency System was established in 2008, mutually recognized with European Solvency II. Mutual recognition questionnaire was replied to European Union in 2012. Stage 2 of China Solvency System is around the corner.
P/C Insurance Regulation in China -- Solvency Solvency quota requirements of Stage 1 in China Minimum capital requirements Based on premiums and claims Similar to Solvency I in Europe Actual capital measurement Admitted assets: a discount of book value Admitted liabilities: measured on a statutory-accounting basis Similar principal to RBC Comparison of solvency results Results of China Stage 1 is basically consistent with EU Solvency II and RBC. Solvency regulation in China now is quite strict, which conforms to international solvency regulation requirements. Company Premium 2011 Market Solvency MCR quota of SCR quota of (100 Million RMB) Share quota EU SII EU SII RBC quota 1 PICC 1,734 36.3% 184% 137% 34% 275% 2 Pin An 833 17.4% 166% 153% 38% 251% 3 CPIC 616 12.9% 233% 209% 52% 337% 4 CCIC 163 3.4% 154% 144% 36% 202% 5 Sunshine 133 2.8% 172% 172% 43% 343% 6 Sino safe 49 1.0% 479% 450% 113% 566% 7 Huatai 48 1.0% 152% 137% 34% 324% 8 Tianpin 40 0.8% 152% 146% 36% 222%
Framework of China Stage 2 Regulation Foundation P/C Insurance Regulation in China -- Solvency Enterprise Solvency Management Refer to 26 Insurance Core Principles, and Common Framework for the Supervision of Internationally Active Insurance Groups published by IAIS Three Regulation Pillars: Consistent with international trends Quantitative capital requirements, Qualitative regulatory requirements, Market restraint mechanism. Characteristic Unified regulation; Risk oriented, balance with valuation of insurance companies Includes operation risk, systemically important risk and countercyclical risk in the second pillar Attach importance to emerging market: considering a lower confidence level of VaR. A Glance at First Pillar: Quantitative capital requirements Capital requirements of insurance risk, market risk, credit risk; Prudential regulatory capital requirement on macro level; And adjustable capital requirement. Consideration of correlation between risks
P/C Insurance Regulation in China -- Reserving Mature Reserving Regulation Legal Basis: Feb. 2009, Law of Insurance Accounting Standard: Aug. 2008, Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises No. 2, adapted to international accounting standards General Requirements: Definition, valuation methods, reporting system of reserve Feb. 2004 Reserving Regulation for P/C Business of Insurance Company and its implementing rules
P/C Insurance Regulation in China -- Reserving Mature Reserving Regulation Responsibility Supervision: Jul. 2010 Standard for Appointed responsible actuary for P/C company, who should sign actuarial statements of reserving reports, rating reports of new product and etc. Reference Requirements: Jul. 2010, Standard of Reference Marital of Valuation Process for P/C Business Valuation Process: Mar. 2012 Internal Control Standard of Reserving for P/C Business of Insurance Company Valuation Results: Reserving adequacy regulation, insight into reserving quality in time. May. 2012 Retrospective Analyses for P/C reserve of Insurance Company Third-party Audits
P/C Insurance Regulation in China -- Reserving Internal Control Standard of Reserving for P/C Business of Insurance Company Principles responsibility assignment : actuarial, financial, underwriting, reinsurance, IT, investment departments and etc. Fundamental Data Valuation Accounting Compulsively automatic registration of reported claims Time limit: 3 days for auto insurance, 15 days for others; Automatic assignment of case reserve and, Update in time according to development of the case; Case reserve compulsively raised according to delay of loss assessment. Update automatic assignment rules in time according to claim experience Data extraction and reconciliation, assumption setting, reinsurance analysis, volatility analysis, adequacy analysis, corporation of financial and actuarial teams and etc. Compare actuarial valuation results with accounting statement Retrospective analysis requirement
P/C Insurance Regulation in China -- Reserving Empirical Study of the Non-life Reserve Adequacy Pretest financial ratio method Some financial index is related to retrospective analyses result, e.g. Outstanding Reserve/Claim Paid Choose the best financial ratio from more than ten selections in consideration of stability, accuracy and economic interpretation. Triangle method Use uniform assumption and method to evaluation reserves claim management index method Speed of claim payment, Sufficiency of loss assessment, Management of claims in transit and Reopened claims Welcome to Round-table Discussion for Details and Share Your Idea!
P/C Insurance Regulation in China Regulation Results Elimination of Solvency Deficiency In 2012, all P/C companies meet solvency requirements. Industry risk is under control. Major Risks including solvency, investment and surrender are under control. Elimination of Regional Risk
P/C Insurance Regulation in China Future Development of Regulation Reserving and margin setting of agriculture catastrophe risk Unearned premium reserving rules of agriculture insurance Third-party audits regulation for reserving Instruction and standard of compulsively automatic registration and adjustment, as a supplement for Internal Control Standard of Reserving Internal control cycle of pricing