FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR THE LIFE INSURANCE INDUSTRY AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Transcription

1 FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR THE LIFE INSURANCE INDUSTRY AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE ACLI Executive Roundtable 10 January 2013 Dr. Joachim Wenning

2 Agenda 1 Economic growth and life business prospects 2 Product split 3 Demography and products 4 Capital markets, accounting and regulation 5 Sales channels 6 Digitization and future sales in Life 7 Pension gaps and tax 2

3 1 Economic dynamics in major regions Real GDP growth % North America Europe Asia ex Japan Japan Latin America Africa -4-6 Source: Munich Re Economic Research 3

4 1 Growth in life insurance shifts to East and South Life insurance premiums development historic and projected North America Europe Emerging Asia 10% 11% 0% 2% 2% 3% Latin America 12% 9% Africa/Middle East 4% % Asia/Australasia 5% % Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America show highest expected growth Source: Munich Re Economic Research 4

5 2 Annuities a key life product Product landscape: business by product line as % of market UK Germany INDICATIVE U.S. China Australia Annuities, Pensions & Savings (US) Annuities & Pensions Savings Living Benefits Life Longevity risk exposure on the increase Classification of products by line of business can vary by market. Market estimation for China. Source: Munich Re Reinsurance Development, GDV, ACLI, ABI, APRA 5

6 3 Demographics will further accelerate the growth of annuities and living benefits Proportion of population >65 to population Projected life expectancy from age 65 70% 30 60% 25 50% 40% 30% 20% yrs +4.2 yrs +3.5 yrs +3.1 yrs 10% 5 0% Africa Japan North America Asia (ex Japan) Europe Men Women Challenge: How can (unexpected) future mortality improvements be managed? Source: Munich Re Reinsurance Development, OECD 6

7 3 Annuities and living benefits carry risks with a high degree of uncertainty (1) Annuity products: example of UK Sample portfolio of 65-year-old male level annuities 100 ~ 15-20% Additional reserves for changed expectation of future longevity Additional reserves for survivors Total volume of reserves in market estimated at 80bn (~ $115bn) in 2001 Reserve strengthening due to lower mortality had been in the range of 15bn (~ $22bn) 0 Reserves 2011 calculated in yrs Reserves 2011 So far, mortality improvements have been underestimated Source: Munich Re 7

8 3 Annuities and living benefits carry risks with a high degree of uncertainty (2) Long Term Care products: example of U.S. US average price development % 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% Benefits payable for longer than previously assumed Significantly underestimated incidence of home care Premium calculation based on high interest rates Ultimate lapse rates underestimated So far, LTC claims have been underestimated Source: Munich Re 8

9 4 Development of interest rates putting pressure on life insurers Comparison of 30-year swap rates % US 30y swap rate EUR 30y swap rate JPY 30y swap rate Minimum cash value in the U.S. requires higher premiums to meet regulatory requirements Guaranteed interest rates in older German life insurance products a problem reduction in guarantees for new products Reinvestment risk and significant hedging costs for insurers Interest-rate risk accounts for up to 70% of total risk capital required according to Solvency II 1 Economic environment increasingly impairs value proposition of life insurance products, especially if Japan scenario of long-lasting low interest rates comes true 1 Sample German life insurer based on QIS5 results, 9

10 4 Trends in accounting and regulation systems (1) Different accounting systems Today IFRS No requirements for insurance contracts Currently measured on the basis of local GAAP Inconsistencies in local GAAP accounting principles US GAAP Regulations for measurement of insurance contracts No economic view Future IFRS 4 Phase 2 and US GAAP measurement approach based on following building blocks Current estimate of future cash flows Discount rate IFRS: explicit risk adjustment and a residual margin US GAAP: single margin Future accounting systems will aim to create increased transparency 10

11 4 Trends in accounting and regulation systems (2) Different regulatory systems Solvency I Established 1979 (Life) Rule-based system EU-wide uniform minimum solvency standards Available solvency capital derived from accounting data (local GAAP) Capital requirement based on plain factors only premiums, claims and GAAP liabilities Rule-based RBC Developed in the early 1990s Rule-based system Create harmonized supervision system in US, but a state-based system Available solvency capital derived from accounting data (US Stat) Factor model, mainly based on accounting data, reflecting differences in risks covered for different lines of business Solvency II To be implemented in 2014 Principle-based system with guidelines for determining capital requirements Comprehensive and uniform supervision system Available solvency capital derived from marketconsistent valuation Capital requirements based on probability model (VaR) Standard stress scenarios for VaR calculation but internal models are allowed Economic-based Trend for regulation systems to move towards an economic basis 11

12 4 Trends in accounting and regulation systems (3) 1 The messengers accounting and regulation will become more effective 2 The message as such is about sustainability of current products and business model 3 More effective messengers will drive necessary change towards sustainability 4 Product design is key for sustainability 12

13 5 Banks and tied agents still dominating sales channels worldwide Distribution: intermediated vs. non-intermediated sales channels 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Intermediated distribution: banks, IFA, tied agents Direct distribution: telephone, mail, internet Australia China Germany U.K. U.S. History does not indicate any change Source: Munich Re, Market estimation, ABI, Towers Watson 13

14 6 Ongoing digitization and online affinity might also favor electronic sales in Life Population with internet access Affinity to online purchase ~2,100m Education < 30 years Professional life ILLUSTRATION Retirement > 60 years +480% High income Affinity online shopping high ~360m Medium income Over 30% of world population are online Low income Affinity online shopping low Target group with high affinity to purchase via Internet Source: PingDom, Google 14

15 6 High share of motor business already concluded via direct sales channel Consumers buying car insurance online 63% 69% 45% 26% 23% 31% 18% 28% 14% U.S. current 8% UK Germany Italy Spain France Current Planned Will Life really look so different in the end? Source: Accenture s Multi-Channel Distribution Consumer Survey 2010, comserve online automobile report, April

16 7 Pension gap provides potential for additional private insurance Gross replacement rate for an average earner from mandatory and voluntary pension schemes Replacement rate, % of individual earnings, selected markets United States Canada United Kingdom Norway Germany France Australia Japan Mexico Level of the OECD average Replacement rate 7% 0% Mandatory Mandatory 100% & voluntary OECD average replacement rates Total mandatory pension schemes Voluntary defined contribution Pension gap Further increase in pension gaps expected Source: PENSIONS AT A GLANCE 2011: RETIREMENT-INCOME SYSTEMS IN OECD,

17 7 Tax treatment of retirement savings made through private pension plans Relative tax advantages % of contribution OECD United States Australia United Kingdom Germany 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% More tax incentives needed, but probably not affordable Source: PENSIONS AT A GLANCE 2011: RETIREMENT-INCOME SYSTEMS IN OECD,

18 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on current assumptions and forecasts of the management of Munich Re. Known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the forward-looking statements given here and the actual development, in particular the results, financial situation and performance of our Company. The Company assumes no liability to update these forward-looking statements or to adapt them to reflect future events or developments.