Workshop B Advanced Energy Management Tools: Benefitting from the Competitive Electricity Marketplace Beyond the Fixed Rate & Key Issues to Understand when Comparing Electricity Quotes 11:15 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.
Biographical Information Beth M. Polk, Regional Sales Manager (Ohio & Illinois) GDF SUEZ Energy Resources, NA, Cleveland OH 216-772-2486 Fax: 888-725-0527 Beth.Polk@gdfsuezna.com Beth has a deep understanding of the Ohio energy market and is well-versed in procurement strategies for large commercial and industrial consumers. Her background includes helping customers align unique business drivers with energy usage patterns to determine appropriate product structures. Beth started her career at AT&T in 1996, and began working as an energy consultant in 2009. She has worked as Regional Sales Manager for GDF SUEZ Energy Resources since 2011 and covers the Ohio and Illinois PJM markets. Beth is a graduate of The University of Akron with a B.A. in Business & Organizational Communication and a minor in Business Administration.
Independence, OH 216.772.2486 Beth.Polk@gdfsuezna.com
Agenda: Benefitting from the Competitive Electricity Marketplace What goes into the price of Electricity Electricity Cost Components. Basic building blocks of energy Price Risk & Reward Identification Product Structures Fixed, Block & Index, Heat Rate Things to consider when comparing quotes. Question & Answer 2
About GDF SUEZ Energy Resources NA (GSERNA) A member of the GDF SUEZ group - founded in 1822 (190+ yrs) Global leader in independent power production Over $117 billion in 2012 revenues Over 215,000 employees globally; over 20,000,000 customers worldwide GDF SUEZ ranked 17 th World s Biggest Company in Forbes Global 2009; #1 largest utility* Highest credit rating of leading energy providers in the U.S. A rating by S&P FORTUNE Magazine Ranked #1 Most Socially Responsible Company in the World, Top 10 Most Accountable Firms, Top 6 Most Admired Energy Companies Globally, 2012** Ranked #6 on Business Week list of The World s Best Companies of 2009 *** http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/mostadmired/2012/best_worst/best4.html * April 2008 Forbes Global 2009 Report ** FORTUNE Magazine, 2008, 2009, 2012 *** Business Week, May 17, 2010 GDF SUEZ Energy Resources serves over 80,000 commercial, industrial, and institutional accounts Load Served Total Load > 8,500 MW 14,500 MW of power generation in U.S. > 500 MW of green power generation 650 MW of generation in Ohio 3
PJM: Electricity Cost Components Two major components: Energy Output of generator + losses & congestion Majority of total energy cost Volatile yet liquid Determined by market forces Cost is Manageable Delivery Cost of moving energy from generator to meter Smaller portion of total energy cost Low volatility; tariff-based Determined predominantly by regulatory bodies and ISOs Customers are price - takers: Costs are less manageable 4
Delivery type costs: PJM: Electricity Cost Components Customers are price - takers: Costs are less manageable Energy: Cost is Manageable Including congestion and line losses 5
PJM: Electricity Cost Components Delivery Costs Including congestion and line losses Energy 75% Percentages are approximate Does not include utility distribution charges or taxes 6
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Transmission: In PJM TRANSMISSION Cost for transporting power over the interstate transmission grid Regulated by FERC under the Network Integrated Transmission Service (NITS) tariff for each transmission owner NITS in AEP: $32,035/MW-year effective July 1st; $0.0061/kWh at 60% Load Factor NITS in Dayton: $13,296/MW-year; $0.0025/kWh at 60% Load Factor NITS in ATSI and Duke: Not a Competitive Supplier Charge PJM Current and Historical NITS Rate: http://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/market-settlements/network-integration.aspx 8
Transmission: Your Cost Calculation Trans Tag : Each meter is assigned a unique tag representative of its share of the utility s peak load. Based Upon: The trans tag is based on that meter s average usage during the peak hour of the Utility Zone during the preceding summer. Transmission Obligation: No scaling factors. Transmission Obligation = Trans Tag Monthly Transmission Cost = Trans Tag x NITS Monthly Rate x # Days in billing cycle 9
DELIVERY COSTS: Ancillary Services Generation Deactivation Black Start Service Operating Reserve Transmission Enhancement Expansion Cost Recovery RTO Start-up Cost Recovery PJM Admin Fees Transmission Owner Scheduling, System Control & Dispatch Service Reactive Supply and Voltage Regulation and Frequency Response Service Synchronized Reserve Day-Ahead Scheduling Reserve Synchronous Condensing Reactive Services Auction Revenue Rights Marginal Loss Overcollection Credit RPS Charge Marginal Loss De-rate 10
PJM: Electricity Cost Components Delivery Costs - Ancillaries Ancillaries - Additional products and services provided by PJM to ensure safe and reliable operation of the regional electricity system - Operational products & services Voltage Control, Frequency Regulation, Operating Reserves - Administrative Services System control & Dispatch, market administration - Reliability Must Run charges Coal plant retirements due to age and potential carbon restrictions Some units will be required to keep operating for reliability until new generation or transmission upgrades can be completed PJM may announce RMR charges in Ohio due to requested retirement of Coal Generation units Potential RMR charges are unknown at this time, but is likely to occur soon Understand how a supplier is handling it 11
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DELIVERY COSTS: Capacity Locational Reliability 13
Capacity: Market in PJM CAPACITY = PLC Capacity Tag * scaling factors * RPM rate * # of days in month Cost for generation installed PJM sets capacity rates 3 years in advance through an auction process known as the Reliability Pricing Model (RPM). Rates are effective from June through May. Customer Capacity Cost The PLC Capacity Tag is based on each customer meter s share of the Peak Load Contribution defined as the five peak hours of the PJM RTO during the preceding summer. Typical CP occurrence: between 4-6 p.m. weekdays from late June through August on very hot, humid days. RPM Clearing Prices in $/MW-Day PY 08/09 PY 09/10 PY 10/11 PY 11/12 PY 12/13 PY 13/14 PY 14/15 PY 15/16 PY 16/17 ATSI $108.89 $20.46 $28.45 $128.17 $294.03 $90.54 AEP $113.22 $104.82 $182.85 $116.23 $16.74 $28.45 $128.17 $134.62 $59.37 DAY $113.22 $104.82 $182.85 $116.23 $16.74 $28.45 $128.17 $134.62 $59.37 DEOK $28.45 $128.17 $134.62 $59.37 You have some control over your PLC tag 1. Avoid or reduce operations (load) in hours when grid load is expected to peak 2. Run on-site generation during those potential peak hours 3. Demand Response programs 4. Invest in energy efficiency 14 14 14 14
Capacity: Market in PJM To Fix or Not to Fix? Just like any of the supplier Delivery Costs, Capacity can be Fixed in a price or passed through at cost. We recommend passing through capacity at cost if customers are enrolled in DR programs and working to control their Peak Load Contribution (PLC) by using less energy during the five peak hours that PJM grid peaks. Otherwise, the savings the customer is working toward will be passed on to the supplier instead of the customer. 15
PJM: Electricity Cost Components Energy Costs Hub Energy Zonal Basis Shape Straddle Imbalance Losses 16
Volatility of Hourly Pricing - Historic AD Hub Day-Ahead LMPs Day Ahead Historical LMPs - AEP Dayton Hub Annual Averages 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $ 53.21 $ 32.99 $ 37.57 $ 40.67 $ 31.45 $ 35.54 $/MWh 17
What Moves Power Prices? Correlation Between Natural Gas & Power NYMEX Henry Hub Calendar 2013 vs. AEP-Dayton Hub Power Calendar 2013 Correlation averaging approximately 94% 1 18 8
Considerations: Historic & Future Pricing: Power 19
Product Structure and Pricing Options Tariffs: Not hedgeable Risk premiums or risk transfer (contract language) Include or pass-through adders: Capacity Transmission Ancillaries Line Losses (T&D) Taxes Hedgeable Any or all of the adders can be combined into or excluded from the energy pricing structure know what you re buying! Energy Structure Fixed Index + Adder Real-Time Day-Ahead Fixed Blocks Heat Rate 20
Product Structure and Pricing Options Risk/Reward Spectrum How do you know what product to select? Very risk tolerant: Index product with full pass thru of delivery components Little risk tolerance: Fixed product More risk tolerant: Block and index Fixed with cap and trans pass thru 21
Product Structure and Pricing Options Fixed Energy Supply Risks: Shaping Supply 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 KWh 600 400 200 0 HE01 HE02 HE03 HE04 HE05 HE06 HE07 HE08 HE09 HE10 HE11 HE12 HE13 HE14 HE15 HE16 HE17 HE18 HE19 HE20 HE21 HE22 HE23 HE24 Hour Ending 22
Fixed price Product Structure and Pricing Options Fixed Fixed price can include or pass through any or all components capacity, transmission, ancillaries, T&D losses Realize that an All In price does not mean that components are fixed! Suppliers should clearly list on quote what is included and fixed in rate, and what is floating. For example, capacity may be included but subject to change when new PLC tags are released. Make sure you know. Otherwise, you will not have an apples to apples comparison. 23
Product Structure and Pricing Options Fixed Fixed Quote Questions/Clarifications: 1. Fixed at Hub or Zone? If at hub, which one? Hub price will appear lower, but will not include congestion or losses (accounts for @ $2/mWh). Zone price will appear higher, but will include congestion. 2. Components are they included and fixed, or included and may change? Capacity how are updated PLC s handled? Will they affect price up or down or are they fixed? What capacity tag is being used? Transmission how is NITS handled? Ancillaries how is RMR handled? It may not be an issue currently, however, with plant closings it may soon become an issue. A fair way to treat RMR is to pass it through at cost should a charge be initiated by PJM. 3. Tolerance Bands Know how much do you need. The higher the Tolerance Band, the more risk premium a customer will pay. If operations are not changing, most customers really don t need to pay for more than 10%. A tolerance band is not a penalty fee. If on a banded product, know how the usage outside the band will be billed. Will there be a retail adder, or will it be actual LMP prices? 24
Product Structure and Pricing Options BLOCK & INDEX Index Pricing - Hedging with Fixed Price Blocks Energy cost is variable - Changes hourly - Indexed to zonal price posted by PJM - Choice of day ahead prices or real time Blocks - Fix a portion of the load - Variety of options: Peak, off peak, min of one month - Build a portfolio of hedges and dollar cost average like your 401k Benefits - Index portion won t pay any forward risk premium - Avoid load shaping and load following risk premiums (lower cost) - Not making the bet that today is the best day to buy power - Take advantage of declining power prices Risks - Market runs up before you hedge mitigate by having a plan and sticking to it 25
Product Structure and Pricing Options BLOCK & INDEX Energy Price Risks: Shaping Supply You can build a portfolio of hedges to manage your entire load profile Strike hedges opportunistically based on market conditions over time Block 3: 5 MW Peak @ $38/MWH Block 2: 3 MW RTC @ $30/MWH Block 1: 5 MW RTC @ $31/MWH 26 26
Product Structure and Pricing Options INDEX Index Structure: Index to either Day Ahead or Real Time LMP at Zone or Hub Adder can include or pass through any or all of the following capacity, transmission, ancillaries, T&D losses Option to fix (hedge) blocks 27
Product Structure and Pricing Options INDEX INDEX Quote Questions/Clarifications: 1. Index Price at Hub or Zone? Day Ahead or Real Time? Clarify what is included in adder and what is floating. If Day Ahead Where is imbalance billed? Will it be included in Retail Adder, or will it be a pass through on the bill? If Real Time Where are operating reserves billed? Will it be included in Retail Adder, or will it be a pass through on the bill? Blocks Priced at Hub or Zone? If at Hub, which one? 28
Product Design Electrical service at a price based on a highly visible natural gas index Heat Rate and Retail Adder are fixed at the time contract is signed Natural Gas price is settled monthly Customer may have opportunity to lock in the gas price in advance of the gas settlement date Price includes everything except for taxes and utility charges Customer Benefit Product Structure and Pricing Options Customer may lock in a Fixed Price at anytime in the future Customer can calculate the Energy Price before the start of each month no hourly volatility during the delivery month HEAT RATE Energy Price $/MWh 100 80 60 40 20 0 What is Heat Rate? Technically, heat rate is used to describe the amount of fuel required to generate a kwh of electricity The heat rate used in the energy price formula will be market-based and not tied specifically to a generator (1) Market-based heat rate Heat Rate Product Sample Energy Price = 8.5 HR * NYMEX + $7 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 NYMEX Price $/mmbtu 29
Product Structure and Pricing Options HEAT RATE What is it? as an Efficiency Factor, Heat Rate is a factor that measures how efficiently a generator converts thermal energy into electricity. It is the amount of fuel energy (such as natural gas) required by a power plant to produce one kilowatt-hour of electrical output. Heat Rate, as a Retail Electricity Product, is a product that offers consumers an opportunity to link the price of electricity to the price of natural gas. In retail markets, Heat Rate products are generally based off a Market Implied Heat Rate, derived from dividing the forward power price by the forward gas price, as shown below. Rather than opting for a Fixed Price contract, customers on a Heat Rate pay a price for electricity that varies based on the settle price of the agreed upon natural gas price index such as the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). 30
HEAT RATE: How Does It Work? The Electricity Price for a Heat Rate product is calculated on a calendar month; by multiplying a Heat Rate by a Gas Index, then adding the Retail Adder, as shown below. The Gas Index varies monthly, based on the settlement of that index. The Electricity Price component is calculated as the Heat Rate multiplied by the monthly settled Gas Index price. Example: Customer ABC is on a Heat Rate product, with a HR of 9 and a Retail Adder of $8.50. The Gas Index is NYMEX. In order to calculate the electricity price for one month, (September 2012), take the NYMEX settle price for that month, $2.634, and perform the following calculation: Electricity Price = (9 x $2.634) + $8.50 = $32.21/MWh or $0.03221/KWh 31
Example of Customer on Heat Rate CUSTOMER ON HEAT RATE IN 2012 ALL IN ELECTRICITY PRICE/MWh ALL IN ELECTRICITY PRICE/KWh NYMEX NG SETTLE PRICE X HEAT RATE FACTOR + Retail Adder /MWh = January 12 $3.08 9 $8.50 $36.22 $0.03622 February 12 $2.68 9 $8.50 $32.62 $0.03262 March 12 $2.45 9 $8.50 $30.55 $0.03055 April 12 $2.19 9 $8.50 $28.21 $0.02821 May 12 $2.01 9 $8.50 $26.59 $0.02659 June 12 $2.43 9 $8.50 $30.37 $0.03037 July 12 $2.77 9 $8.50 $33.43 $0.03343 August 12 $3.01 9 $8.50 $35.59 $0.03559 September 12 $2.63 9 $8.50 $32.17 $0.03217 October 12 $3.02 9 $8.50 $35.68 $0.03568 November 12 $3.47 9 $8.50 $39.73 $0.03973 December 12 $3.70 9 $8.50 $41.76 $0.04176 AVERAGE PRICE $33.58 $0.03358 Would you have liked to pay $0.3348/KWh?? 32
Product Structure and Pricing Options HEAT RATE HEAT RATE You can build a portfolio of hedges to manage your entire load profile Strike hedges opportunistically based on market conditions over time 18,000 16,000 14,000 KW 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Block 3: 5 MW Peak @ $36/MWH Block 2: 3 MW RTC @ $29/MWH Block 1: 5 MW RTC @ $30/MWH 0 Hour Ending 33 33
Is Heat Rate Right for Me? A company s perception of whether or not Heat Rate products are good for the company depends on the company s view of the gas market and its tolerance for risk. Companies - forecasting a downward trend in natural gas prices may choose a Heat Rate product, rather than a Fixed Price, so they can take advantage of future declines in market prices - with resources dedicated to monitoring the gas market may also prefer a Heat Rate product. For example, if a company already used to hedging gas, they are likely more comfortable with a Heat Rate product. In addition, they will only need to watch the commodity of gas instead of both electricity and gas. - with an end-product directly related to natural gas,(e.g. refineries), may prefer a Heat Rate product A longer time horizon is beneficial to customer when buying a heat rate, i.e. deal starting 12 months from today gives the customer time for gas to fall 34
Requirements for Apples to Apples Rate Comparison All Product Structures For apples to apples ask each supplier to: Deliver quote on same day/time. Use the same volumes (this impacts capacity charges if they are fixed). Use the same loss factor and clearly state if losses are included in price or not. Use the same capacity tag (PLC) Use the same transmission tag (if utility does not bill for transmission) Clearly list on quote what is included and fixed in rate, and what is floating. 35
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