What if BAU would come true?

What if BAU would come true? Scanning transport CO 2 emissions in the EU Petri Tapio & Jyrki Luukkanen Finland Futures Research Centre

The approach Introduction of general trends on EU15 level GDP Transport CO 2 emissions Historical CO 2 data by country 196-1999 Future extrapolations CO 2 by country 2-212 Historical transport CO 2 intensity of the economy by country CO 2 /GDP 196-1999 Future extrapolation of intensity by country 2-212 Comparison with USA and Japan history 196-1999 2-212 Discussion

CO 2 emissions by sector in EU15 1985-1999 12 CO 2 Emissions /1 6 tn 1 Electricity & Heat Production Transport 8 6 Household & Commerce Industry 4 Energy Branch 2 1985 199 1995 2 Source of Data: Eurostat 2; 22

GDP, passenger traffic, freight and traffic CO 2 in EU15 in 197-2, scanning for 212 Source: Eurostat Real GDPmer, 35 passenger transport and freight transport/ 3 (index 197=1); 25 CO 2 emissions from transport/ 2 (index 1985=15) 15 GDP mer R 2 =,991 Passenger km CO2 from transport Freight (tnkm) GDPmer 1 5 CO 2 R 2 =,977 Freight R 2 =,954 Passenger km R 2 =,994 197 198 199 2 212

Transport CO 2 emissions by country EU15 Big countries France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK Little central and southern countries Austria, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Portugal Nordic countries Denmark, Finland, Sweden

History 196-1999: Big EU countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 196 197 198 199 2 Germany France UK Italy Spain Time/ Year

Future 212 big countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 25 2 15 1 Linear extrapolation - big EU countries R 2 =,9762 R 2 =,9912 R 2 =,971 R 2 =,9958 R 2 =,9446 Germany France UK Italy Spain 5 196 197 198 199 2 212

Future 212 big countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 25 2 15 Second order polynomial extrapolation - big EU countries R 2 =,984 R 2 =,984 R 2 =,9912 R 2 =,9959 Germany UK France Italy 1 R 2 =,975 Spain 5 196 197 198 199 2 212

History: Little central and southern countries (196-1999) Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 35 3 Transport CO 2 in the little central and southern EU countries Netherlands 25 Belgium 2 Greece 15 Aus tria Portugal 1 Ireland 5 Luxembourg 196 197 198 199 2 Time/Year

Future 212 little central and southern countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 4 3 2 1 Linear extrapolation - little central and southern EU countries R 2 =,9731 R 2 =,9822 R 2 =,9835 R 2 =,9795 R 2 =,9434 R 2 =,8785 Netherlands Belgium Greece Austria Portugal Ireland Luxembourg R 2 =,886 196 197 198 199 2 212

Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg Future 212 little central and southern countries Second order polynomial extrapolation - little central and southern EU countries 4 3 R 2 =,9731 R 2 =,9865 R 2 =,9885 Netherlands Belgium Greece 2 R 2 =,9839 R 2 =,9798 Austria Portugal 1 R 2 =,8923 R 2 =,9833 Ireland Luxembourg 196 197 198 199 2 212

History 196-1999: Nordic countries Source IEA 3 Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 2 Sweden Denmark Finland 1 196 197 198 199 2 Time/ Year

Future 212 nordic countries Linear extrapolation - nordic EU countries Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 3 2 R 2 =,9543 R 2 =,985 Sweden Denmark Finland 1 R 2 =,9742 196 197 198 199 2 212

Future 212 nordic countries Second order polynomial extrapolation - nordic EU countries 3 Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 2 1 R 2 =,9755 R 2 =,9832 R 2 =,9462 Sweden Finland Denmark 196 197 198 199 2 212

History 196-1999: USA, Japan and EU15 Transport CO 2 in USA, EU15 and Japan in 196-1999 Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg 2 15 1 USA EU15 Japan 5 196 197 198 199 2 Time / Year

Future 212 - EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 in USA, EU15 and Japan in 196-1999; linear extrapolation for 2-212 2 Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg R 2 =,9329 15 USA 1 R 2 =,9916 EU15 5 R 2 =,9858 Japan 196 197 198 199 2 212

Future 212 - EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 in USA, EU15 and Japan in 196-1999; second order polynomial extrapolation for 2-212 2 Transport CO 2 emissions / Tg R 2 =,9519 15 USA R 2 =,9921 1 EU15 5 R 2 =,9858 Japan 196 197 198 199 2 212

Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy Grouping as above CO 2 /GDP by country History 196-1999 Future 2-212

History 196-1999: Big countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 - big EU countries,2 Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15,1 Spain UK France Germany Italy,5 196 197 198 199 2 Time/ Year

Future 212 big countries,2 Transport CO 2 / Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2-212 - big EU countries GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15,1,5 R 2 =,5144 R 2 =,3884 R 2 =,8532 R 2 =,788 R 2 =,8714 Spain UK France Germany Italy 196 197 198 199 2 212

Future 212 big countries,2 Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15 Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 and second order polynomial extrapolation for 2-212 - big EU countries R 2 =,7522 R 2 =,444 R 2 =,8535 Spain UK France,1,5 R 2 =,834 R 2 =,9142 Germany Italy 196 197 198 199 2 212

History 196-1999: Little central and southern countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 - little central and southern EU countries,25 Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp,2 (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15,1,5 Luxembourg Greece Ireland Portugal Belgium Netherlands Austria 196 197 198 199 2 Time/Year

Future 212 little central and southern countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2-212 - little central and southern EU countries,25 Transport CO 2 / R 2 =,9352 Luxembourg GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),2 R 2 =,972 Greece,15,1,5 R 2 =,376 R 2 =,8452 R 2 =,7673 R 2 =,7449 R 2 =,123 Ireland Portugal Belgium Netherlands Austria 196 197 198 199 2 212

Future 212 little central and southern countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 and second order polynomial extrapolation for 2-212 - little central and southern EU countries,25 Transport CO 2 / R 2 =,947 Luxembourg GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),2 R 2 =,926 Greece,15,1 R 2 =,928 R 2 =,8125 R 2 =,165 Portugal Belgium Aus tria,5 R 2 =,8628 R 2 =,5666 Netherlands Ireland 196 197 198 199 2 212

History 196-1999: Nordic countries Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 - nordic EU countries Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),2,15,1 Sweden Finland Denmark,5 196 197 198 199 2 Time/ Year

Future 212 nordic countries Transport CO 2 / Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2-212 - nordic EU countries,2 GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15 R 2 =,3574 R 2 =,1638 Finland Sweden,1 R 2 =,1265 Denmark,5 196 197 198 199 2 212

Future 212 nordic countries Transport CO 2 /,2 Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 and second order polynomial extrapolation for 2-212 - nordic EU countries GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),15,1 R 2 =,374 Sweden,5 R 2 =,664 R 2 =,651 Finland Denmark 196 197 198 199 2 212

Comparison of EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy History 196-1999 Future 2-212

History 196-1999: EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),3,25,2,15,1 USA EU15 Japan,5 196 197 198 199 2 Time/ Year

Future 212 - EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2-212 - EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ),3,25,2,15,1,5 R 2 =,7669 R 2 =,9171 R 2 =,338 USA EU15 Japan 196 197 198 199 2 212

Future 212 - EU15, USA and Japan Transport CO 2 / GDP ppp (Tg/1 9 US$ 2 ) Transport CO 2 intensity of the economy 196-1999 and linear extrapolation for 2-212 - EU15, USA and Japan,3,25,2,15,1 R 2 =,9173 R 2 =,356 EU15 Japan,5 R 2 =,865 USA 196 197 198 199 2 212

Discussion Substance Transport is an exceptional sector as the CO 2 intensity of the economy has not decreased The countries receiving a lot of EU structural funding have had high CO 2 growth rates USA has had decreasing transport CO 2 intensity figures but was still twice as high as EU15 in 1999 Methodology Extrapolation should be used very cautiously even in what if studies and even with BAU analyses