A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths Survey by GFK
Foreword It has been predicted that the TV industry will change significantly due to the arrival of new devices such as smart TV, connected TV, smartphones and tablets. Indeed, many have predicted that traditional TV will be displaced from its pre-eminent position thanks to the rise of portable devices delivering digital content, as well as the increase in savvy consumers and anytime/anywhere content. So where does the future lie for the TV industry? Should broadcasters be worried that traditional TV is going to be assigned to the history books? Should advertisers give up promoting products on TV? Will the consumer give up his love affair with the TV in favour other, newer devices? We have conducted research into these challenging questions. To do this we surveyed consumers in the Netherlands using a questionnaire jointly developed by Deloitte, Paul van Niekerk from GfK and Michel van der Voort from SPOT. We also spoke to advertisers, media buyers, broadcasters and content producers to understand their perspectives as they adapt to the digital revolution and deal with a global economic slowdown. Our research focused on two key areas: the change of consumer behaviour with respect to their consumption of TV content, and the response of the players in the TV value chain to these changes. It s an exciting time to be part of the ever-evolving media industry. We, as members of the Deloitte TMT team, are pleased to present you with our view on the TV industry s future. The results may surprise you. Daan Witteveen & Marieke van der Donk 2
Content Introduction to the report 4 Myth 1: TV is no longer relevant 5 Myth 2: New devices will destroy television as we know it today 8 Myth 3: Social media is more influential than TV 17 Myth 4: Advertising on TV will decline 23 Myth 5: Content wants to be free 30 A new breed of media: Deloitte perspective on the future of TV 38 Appendix: Research Description 45 A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths 3
Introduction to the report Today s consumer lives in the golden age of media consumption. He has an incredible amount of media at his fingertips, which he is able to access with increasing ease through an ever-widening array of technologies and devices. Media consumption for the average European is forecast to continue rising to an astonishing 92 hours a week in 2020. While this does include overlap, the importance of media in the life of today s consumer cannot be understated. Many futurists have been quick to write the epitaph of traditional media due to the rise of new media, but the graph below shows the impact on TV so far has been limited. This report examines the impact of new technologies and new devices on television-related behaviour and the resulting impact on advertising and consumer willingness to pay. It does this by examining and dispelling common myths related to the TV industry, and by taking a fact-based approach to explaining the impact of these technological shifts on the TV eco-system, including the impact on future business models of TV value chain players. To produce this report, Deloitte/GfK conducted an online survey of 2,000 consumers in the Netherlands and interviewed key opinion leaders. We also used findings from a similar survey carried out annually in the United Kingdom by Deloitte/ GfK. These results were supplemented with research from industry reports, annual reports, analysts reviews and our own experience. For details of our survey methodology, please see the appendix on the research description. The bottom line of the study is this: despite the explosion in new media forms and the rise of new devices and technologies, TV remains first among equals in the media world. No other media type is able to attract the vast numbers of people that television can. Figure 1 Number of hours per week spent per media type 1 90 Internet 75 60 45 Digital TV Analogue TV Games Wirelesss Outdoor media Digital Radio Analogue Radio Cinema Print 30 15 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 4
Myth 1: TV is no longer relevant People are watching more TV than ever before Contrary to popular belief, the Dutch are watching more TV than ever before. In fact, the average Dutch person now watches 191 minutes of TV every day, spending 1/5th of every waking hour watching television. This number has actually increased by five minutes in total in the last five years. 2 In the UK, this number is even higher. There, people watch TV for 242 minutes per day 3, an increase of more than 20 minutes since 2003. 4 In the US, the total number of daily minutes spent watching TV is 283. 5 TV remains the prime driver and binder of national passion during mega events. For example, sport events continue to attract record viewers. Despite the Netherlands not making it to the finals, over 5 million Dutch people tuned in to watch the final of the European Championship between Spain and Italy in 2012. 6 This number was much higher for the World Cup final in 2010 between The Netherlands and Spain, when more than 8.5 million viewers saw the Dutch team lose the final. 7 Meanwhile, the popularity of reality shows in the Netherlands remains at an all-time high. The last season of The Voice of Holland, a popular TV singing contest, was watched by over 3 million viewers on average. The final of Boer zoekt Vrouw (Farmer seeks a Wife) was watched by over 5.3 million viewers. 8 It seems that TV is leading rather than following social media, and social network conversations are often fuelled by the latest TV shows. The Facebook page of The Voice in the US has above 3 million followers. More than 15,000 tweets were sent every second when Spain scored a goal during the Euro Cup final in 2012 9, largely by people watching the live match on TV, we presume. TV is a critical part of the end-of-day relaxation routine for most. Nearly 60% of participants in the Deloitte/GfK study on TV behaviour felt that TV was the best way to relax at home. TV also continues to drive content creation in other media sectors. TV listing magazines remain incredibly popular in the Netherlands. Veronica Magazine, for example, has a circulation of 802,599, reaching 2.5 million readers. 10 TV talent shows continue to be the birthplace of a large number of new music stars. TV remains critical for brand building, and viewers reveal that TV advertisements have the greatest impact on them, according to the Deloitte/GfK survey. Even in today s age of multiple information sources, TV continues to have a huge ability to frame a society s opinion. The Deloitte/GfK survey in the Netherlands shows that 62% of respondents feel that of all the media types, television has the greatest power to change the way people think. Figure 2 Number of minutes TV watched the day per age segment (average minutes per day) 12 160 166 167 159 162 183 188 184 180 182 257 263 266 254 255 222 232 237 225 225 184 191 186 184 191 112 116 116 113 116 122 112 112 113 118 6-12 13-19 20-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Average 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths 5
At the same time, people appear willing to spend even more on television. The average monthly TV subscription has gone up from 19.87 in 2007 to 23.87 in 2011, a 20% increase. This number is expected to increase even further to approximately 27 in 2014. 11 The expectation that multiple media options will cool the attraction of traditional media like TV to younger audiences has not yet happened in any significant way. Time spent on TV by children between 6-12 years has been flat over the last four years, whereas there has been a net 3% decline for viewers between 13-19 and 20-34. However, time spent by older audiences (50-64 and 65+) has increased by 5%. is likely to increase the uptake of TV consumption, especially among younger, technology-friendly audiences. Easy access means that viewers will be able to watch TV not only in traditional areas like the living room or bedroom but also in other areas inside and outside the house. At the same time, younger audiences no longer have to go to their desktop computers in their bedrooms to surf the net, but can do it in the living room while watching TV. While new devices and other technology developments increase the possibility of multitasking, 66% of people when watching TV only watch TV. This percentage is higher than the single-minded use of other media types. Over the next few years, the increase in the number of portable connected devices, the proliferation of second screens and the easy access to on-the-go services Figure 3 Percentage of time of single-tasking during use of media (%) 13 TV 66 Gaming (computer) 51 Magazine 43 Paper 34 Call/Text (fixed) Surfing the web E-mail 29 28 28 Social Media 18 Call/Text mobile 8 Radio 3 0 15 30 45 60 75 6
Nearly half the country cannot imagine life without TV Of the respondents surveyed, 45% agreed with the statement I cannot imagine life without television. This outcome shows how strongly people value watching TV and what a big role it plays in people s lives. Females agree more strongly than males at 48% and 42% respectively. In the Deloitte/GFK study in the UK, the number was even higher; 55% of the entire sample agreed with this statement 14. The UK respondents also feel that watching TV brings the family together much stronger than the NL respondents across all ages. For example, nearly 55% of the people between 35 and 44 agree with this statement in UK 15 16 while in NL approximately 32% agrees. Conclusion: Despite new developments in the media world, television remains a highly relevant and growing market. Consumers are still in love with the TV, which means players in the TV value chain, including content producers, broadcasters, cable companies and device manufacturers, are looking to grab a bigger share of the pie. The entry of global technology giants like Google and Apple into this industry is further testimony to televisions long-term attractiveness to consumers. Figure 4 I cannot live without television (category, %) 17 Total Gender In a world where the mobile phone is becoming more and more indispensable, it may be surprising to learn that more than 1 in 3 people would be willing to give up their phone two keep their TV. The survey shows that 35% of respondents would rather keep their television than their mobile. 32% 36% 23% 22% 29% 24% Disagree Indifferent Agree TV market the new battleground for technology giants The TV market has recently captured a lot of attention from non-traditional players like Apple and Google. In the Netherlands, Google has recently launched Google TV, and Sony 18 is expected to partner Apple in the Netherlands. The entry of left field competition is expected to force TV manufacturers and producers of TV interfaces to focus on usability 19, and many analysts expect TV to become the next digital battleground. 20 45% 42% 48% Total Male Female A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths 7
Myth 2: New devices will destroy television as we know it today The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated Mark Twain The news media loves to report on new devices and disruptive new technologies. Super set-top boxes, private video recorders (PVRs), connected TVs, 3D TVs, tablets, over-the-top devices all have been predicted to significantly change TV consumption patterns and, consequently, the business models of players. By 2016, analysts have predicted that there will be 1.8 billion connected TV devices globally. However, these purported threats have mostly not materialised. Relative to initial expectations, digital TV, the personal video recorder, video-on-demand, social networks, Internet TV and the Internet itself have had little impact on the amount and manner of television consumption. Consumers still largely rely on TV schedules (66% on TV screens and 56% in newspapers/magazines) and trailers on television (80%) for a majority of their TV viewing, while the growth of torrent sites has not adversely affected the TV market in the same way it has affected the music market. The challenge for TV moving forward is to maintain its position as a primary activity Dan Ligtvoet, EVP & MD Viacom International Media Networks, Northern Europe Figure 5 Connected TV devices globally (billion) 21 2,0 1,80 0,05 Media-streaming devices 1,5 1,25 0,25 0,25 Hybrid set-top box Games console 1,0 0,93 0,35 Connected Blu-ray player 0,74 0,5 0,36 0,50 0,90 Connected TV 0,0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 8
Figure 6 How do you find out about new TV programmes which you want to watch (category, %) 22 Browsing the listings on TV screen 23 43 32 2 Browsing the listings in newspapers / magazines 19 37 41 2 Seeing trailers on television within the broadcast schedule 18 62 17 2 Recommendation by a friend 8 63 27 2 Recommendation in a newspaper / magazine Browsing the shows in broadcasters on-demand services Recommendation on a social networking site 3 3 5 42 24 69 50 2 23 70 4 4 Seeing adverts in newspapers / magazines 3 40 54 3 Recommendation on a website 2 32 62 3 Seeing trailers on a broadcasters on-demand services 2 18 76 4 Seeing adverts online 1 26 69 3 Seeing posters or billboards 1 26 69 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 often sometimes never don t know A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths 9
More screens mean more TV In June 2012, over 6 million people in the Netherlands owned a smartphone and 2.8 million owned a tablet. The number of smartphones has increased by 600,000 in the last six months, with the number of tablets increasing by over 1 million in the same period. Worldwide, tablet sales are predicted to grow by nearly 80% a year, to 326 million tablets sold in 2015. By then, nearly 1 in 6 people in the world will have a tablet. 23 24 Figure 7 Adoption of tablets in the Netherlands Tablet ownership (% of people using tablets in NL) Ownership of tablet/ipad 14% 23% More screens do not mean less TV. On the contrary, 6 million smartphones, many with large screens, and 3 million tablets will augment the 12.6 million TV sets in the Netherlands and increase the opportunity that people have to watch TV. 25 6% Just as smartphones have revolutionised the mobile phone experience, so can smartphones and tablets transform the TV experience. In all likelihood, new devices will mean that people will be able to watch TV outside the traditional lounge and bedroom which is the so-called TV everywhere experience. 1% Aug-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Number of tablets in the world (m) Other WebOS MeeGo QNX Microsoft Android ios Jun-12 178 14 252 20 24 85 326 26 34 116 104 54 18 15 2010 64 11 47 2011 23 69 2012 96 2013 122 2014 149 2015 Tablets v/s other PCs, in the world (m) Tablet PCs Other PCs 347 357 18% 390 27% 434 41% 482 52% 535 61% 95% 82% 73% 59% 48% 39% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10
TV still the preferred device to watch Live TV Today, Live TV is still being mainly consumed in the traditional way, and a traditional TV is still the dominant device to watch broadcast TV transmitted live, as indicted by 96% of the respondents. Only 4% of respondents watch Live TV through other devices such as laptops, tablets or mobiles. Figure 8 What device did you use to watch broadcast TV as transmitted live? 26 A TV with buit-in internet access Other* Not specified 4% 2% 8% A likely reason is the quality of services on offer, but that will improve as the number of free and pay-asyou-go offerings for mobile TV increases. However, bandwidth remains an issue in the short term. Watching Live TV on mobile devices on current 3G networks in the Netherlands is not an option; its limited bandwidth does not yet allow broad streaming. Long Term Evolution services, marketed as 4G LTE, do allow this but they are not expected to be launched earlier than 2013 for the first operator (T-Mobile) and not earlier than 2014 for other operators (KPN, Vodafone). 27 A TV with a set-top box 22% 66% A regular TV (cable/broadcast) In South Korea prime time is now between 6pm-7pm when many people travel from work to home as people watch TV on new devices. This may happen in the Netherlands in a few years Ton Schoonderbeek, Regional Leader Benelux & Nordics Mindshare The limited success of mobile TV offerings in the past has much to do with the limitations of mobile broadcast technology deployed, poor quality handsets and tedious subscription plans. 28 These are not the only hurdles to overcome either. One of the major barriers to adopting Live TV on mobile devices, even in advanced markets like the United States, is the rights regime. While cable companies have the rights to retransmit content within a home on other mobile devices, they usually need to renegotiate rights with content owners should they wish to broadcast the content on tablets outside the home. Nevertheless, after considering the future potential the same Dutch operator that quit mobile TV due to technology limitations has recently re-launched its mobile TV offering for smartphones, after launching this offering for tablets and laptops. 29 A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths 11
Catch-up TV becoming popular on mobile devices While Live TV is still being consumed in the traditional manner, new devices like tablets and mobile phones are being increasingly used to watch mainly catch-up TV. At the moment, the traditional TV set is still the dominant device for watching this type of content, yet 41% of the respondents indicated they watch catch-up TV on a PC, laptop, tablet or mobile phone. The main drivers behind the rise of catch-up TV on a mobile device are the increase in storage capacity of the devices and the easy availability of Wi-Fi access. This, combined with the fact that the Dutch spend more time getting to work than other nationalities from OECD countries 31, means they have more time to pursue such recreational activities while travelling a significant amount of mobile content is watched by people on the go. Figure 9 What device did you use to watch catch-up/on demand service? 30 Not specified Other 41% 11% 15% A regular TV (cable/broadcast) 13% 4% A TV with a set-top box A TV with built-in internet access Because global brands like Google, Apple, Facebook, Twitter are dominant in our lives, we see global partnerships between these brands and global operating companies like Unilever, Heineken Ruud de Langen, CEO Mindshare Netherlands 12
Broadcasters dominate the catch-up/on-demand scene Catch-up/on-demand services owned by broadcasters currently loom large in the TV catch-up market in the Netherlands (For example, RTL XL, which includes RTL gemist, has 10 million visits per month 32 ). In the Deloitte/GfK survey, 64% of respondents had used broadcasters on-demand services. Unsurprisingly, these services are more popular among younger people with higher education levels. The survey also reveals the leading services; 47% and 22% of respondents indicated they use Uitzending Gemist and RTL Gemist respectively. Females use them significantly more than males. Figure 10 Which devices do you use to access broadcasters on-demand services and with what frequency? 33 Tablet 8% 7% 8% 5% 28% 4% 30% 12% 7% 28% 15% 4% 39% 12% 7% 37% 6% 33% 57% 30% 46% 35% 39% 13-17 years 18-34 years 35-49 years 50-64 years 65+ years Often Rarely Don t have this device Sometimes Never Mobile phone 6% 4% 7% 4% 5% 12% 7% 14% 3% 14% 71% 71% 64% 73% 74% 7% 6% 13-17 18-34 years years 12% 17% 35-49 years 50-64 years 23% 65+ years Often Rarely Don t have this device Sometimes Never A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths 13
What about recorded content? According to the Dutch Deloitte/GfK survey, two out of three people in the Netherlands have access to a PVR or personal video recorder. Of those who have a PVR, 38% record less than an hour a week, while 20% record between 1-2 hours. The types of content normally recorded are films (56%), drama (26%) and documentaries (25%). Figure 11 What device did you use to watch recorded via a hard disk or other recording device? 34 Second screens work in harmony with the TV New devices give us the ability to watch TV, but they also give us a second screen to do other things while watching traditional TV. A recent study by Nielsen noted that 88% of tablet owners and 87% of smartphone owners use these devices at the same time as watching TV. 37 Yet analysts report that tablet sales are not going to cannibalise sales of large TVs 74% of consumers say they will not change their behaviour in buying large TVs even after buying a tablet. Moreover, 57% indicated that their purchasing of small TV s will not change after they got a tablet. 38 Not specified Other A TV with buit-in internet access 9% 5% 14% 27% A regular TV (cable/broadcast) 33%...the quality of the produced video entertainment content in general will improve as the second screen becomes more important A TV with a set-top box Paul Zonderland, Country Manager The Walt Disney Company Benelux From the perspective of TV revenue models, PVR penetration and associated revenue is of particular interest. For example, in the Netherlands, cable operator UPC offers the PVR option to its premium customers for an additional fee of 4 a month on top of the premium TV package. The penetration of HD, PVR and HD-DVR devices among UPC digital cable subscribers is 62%. 35 UPC s main competitor, Ziggo, offers new customers an interactive HD recorder at a discounted price of 99 euros 36, employing a different model. The Deloitte/GfK survey found that 62% of respondents have, in the month prior to the survey, used a device to access the Internet at the same time as watching TV. Of this group, 74% used a computer or laptop, 42% used a mobile phone and 26% used a tablet computer. More specifically, 48% of the respondents frequently or occasionally browsed the Internet for general information while watching TV. Some futurist s prophesised the increase in the use of the Internet would decrease the time we spend watching TV. Indeed, it seems the two can co-exist in harmony. 14
Respondents of the Dutch Deloitte/GFK study talk on the phone while watching TV about as much as their counterparts from the UK. The Dutch however browse the internet much less. For general information, around 65% of the respondents in the UK frequently of occasionally do so compared to 48% in the Netherlands. Less than 40% never browses the internet for information about the program they are watching in the UK while more than 50% never does this in the Netherlands. Second screens appear to be employed only or mostly for private use. Of the respondents surveyed, 72% would not like the content they were viewing on their computer, tablet or smartphone to be displayed on the television screen alongside the programme they are watching. People see the TV as a social experience and, at times, a personal experience. Many use a second screen to find information related to the show that they are watching. An existing example of solutions following this concept is Real-time accompany content, which serves content and advertising related to what is being watched using automated content recognition. An example of this is The Voice app; viewers play a game by acting as coaches during the live shows. A second type of solution is Transmedia storytelling in which tablet products are geared toward usage between episodes which is meant to keep followers engaged. An example from the US is the USA Network and DC Comics production of an interactive graphic novel for the show Burn Notice. 40 Figure 12 How often do you do the following while watching programmes on your television? 39 Talk to other people in the room 50 32 11 7 Browse the internet for general information 17 31 18 34 Talk on the phone 13 41 31 15 Txt/Message with others who are watching the same program Communicate with others via the internet about general topics Browse the internet for information about the program 10 15 16 9 18 18 5 16 27 59 55 52 Communicate with others via the internet about the program 3 10 17 69 Participate in the program 1 4 13 81 0 20 40 60 80 100 Frequently Occasionally Rarely Never A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths 15
Web-connected television available but largely unused In the Deloitte/GfK survey, 11.7% of respondents said they have an Internet-connected television (TV set with built-in Internet access). According to GfK, the share of Web TV in the flat-panel TV market was over 60% in 2012; it is expected to reach 84% in 2013. In the US, 16% of households are reported to have a connectable TV. This is expected to grow to 52%, or 66.8 million households, by 2016. 41 The same trend is visible in the number of global subscribers for the slightly different IPTV technology. This is expected to grow at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 18.1% and more than double the number of subscriptions, from 41 million in 2010 to 93.6 million in 2013 globally. 42 However, while it is evident that connected TVs will reach the majority of European households, the disruptive effect of connected TVs on consumer behaviour is expected to be limited. The reasons are twofold. First, there is a difference between having a connectable TV and using it as a connected TV. Factors such as the (non) friendliness of the remote control, lack of time, lack of technical knowledge and even lack of awareness of the possibilities slow the adoption of fully-connected television. 43 Second, the nature of TV is not due to change drastically; it will be delivering world-class audio-visual content to consumers for the foreseeable future. Therefore, consumers are likely to purchase more of the same content, but in an easier manner and of better quality, making the most of options like VoD and catch-up. This leads to the increasing importance of distribution mechanisms, like app stores, which were present in around 28% of TVs sold in the Netherlands in December 2011. 44 Analysts have noted that, to develop excellent controls and features, companies need both breakthrough thinking on uses of semiconductordriven technologies, along with a well-designed user interface to access the consumer s content. 45 Consumers today want more choice, more control, increased personalisation and enhanced user experience but, above all, they value simplicity and ease of use. Devices offering a well-designed, user-friendly interface are likely to be appreciated the most. Additionally, two-way interaction is more likely to be employed using second-screen devices alongside the TV, rather than on a large TV screen. Yet, people in the Netherlands are not very interested in new technological products. Two thirds (67%) of the survey s respondents mentioned that they are unlikely or extremely unlikely to look in showrooms or shops for new technology products when they are shopping. 46 With respect to technological adoption, only 5% categorise themselves as innovators or early adapters. 4 Conclusion: Technological developments will eventually change the way in which we consume television, as well as the underlying business models. However, this technological innovation will enhance TV rather than destroy it as all these developments, from the flat-panel TV to 3D production, strengthen the main purpose of TV: delivering world-class audiovisual content. Companies need to understand consumer behaviour since user experience, packaging and pricing will become the factors that determine success and willingness to pay. Rather than adding new features, the players in the value chain will have to focus on making access to audio-visual content easier and faster, anywhere and anytime. That will result in redefining the roles of value chain participants. 16
Myth 3: Social media is more influential than TV The arrival of new types of media is not new. People still read newspapers and listen to the radio even though both media types have ceded ground to the television and the Internet in recent years. Many have argued that the rise of social networks will hurt TV in a similar or worse way. Yet rarely does one medium fully replace another. Radio added to live concerts; they didn t kill them. TV and radio remain popular and time spent watching TV continues to increase despite the rise of the Internet. The coexistence of different types of leisurely pursuits is more common than the substitution of one for the other. TV outdoes social media in every meaningful way Today, the total number of hours people in the Netherlands spend watching television is 31 times greater than the time they spend on Facebook, Hyves and Twitter combined. The aggregate number of television hours each month is 1.499 million compared to 48 million on these social mediums combined. Figure 13 TV use versus social media use 48 Aggregate NL consumption of TV and social media TV 1.499 Having said that, the rise of social media has put TV executives in a predicament. Some TV executives worry about losing viewers to social media sites and in turn losing audience reach and advertising relevance; some fear their programmes are not generating sufficient social buzz; others are striving to emulate social networks ability to gather user data. Hyves Facebook Twitter 30 17 1 0 50 100 1.500 Hours per month (m) Average consumption per user TV 5.921 Hyves 253 Facebook 144 Twitter 21 0 200 400 6000 Minutes per user per month What s more, the number of minutes individuals spend watching TV every month is approximately 14 times greater than that of the other three combined. The time individuals spend on social media may be growing faster than that on television, the aggregate number of minutes watching TV is increasing faster than that of social media because it is growing from a much larger base. In the UK, the aggregate number of hours people watch TV is 35 times the number of hours they spend on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn combined. A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths 17
Moreover, the average number of minutes spends per user on watching TV is 16 times larger. Advertising spend much greater on TV than on social networks Today, ad spend on social media is much lower than ad spend on television. Estimated advertising revenue for all social media sites in the Netherlands region is less than 50 million. 49 In 2011, the amount spent on television was 1.017 billion, which is 20 times larger. 50 TV advertising grew by 4.3% between 2010 and 2011. Zenith Optimedia expects it to grow at a compounded annual rate of around 5% between 2011 and 2014, exceeding the GDP growth forecast by some measure. 51 Social media ad spend is also expected to grow quickly, but at a much slower pace than previously expected. According to recent earnings reported by Facebook, its advertising earnings grew 28% year on year between Q2 11 and Q2 12, while this growth was 83% the year before. 52 Gartner forecasts that global social media advertising revenue growth will decline from 34.9% in 2012 to 11% in 2016. 53 At this pace, social media advertising spend, coming from a much smaller base as it does, is not expected to surpass TV ad spend in the near future. In addition, the TV market has a much sounder price base compared with social networks. A large number of ads that run on social networks are display ads. The inventory of such advertising is potentially infinite, since there is no limit to the amount of ads that can be added, whereas the inventory of TV ads is finite, especially within the leading networks. Consequently, the price levels of TV ads are expected to remain strong in the coming years, whereas the ever-increasing inventory of online ads is likely to continue to put pressure of social network prices. TV much better at encouraging people to buy products Television also dwarfs social media s ability to persuade consumers to try new products. Only 2% of 18-34 year olds mentioned Facebook as the source for finding their latest planned purchase. This number was substantially higher for television. Approximately one in seven respondents in the Deloitte/GfK survey acknowledged they were persuaded by television to make a non-routine purchase. 54 Overall, this means TV is still way ahead of social media in terms of scale, effectiveness and attractiveness to advertisers. As long as there is no medium to replace it, TV will remain unbeaten in reaching and influencing mass audiences. Little consensus about TV as a social activity TV has often been described as the original social network. However, do people still consider watching TV a social activity? If so, does this mean they want to watch TV together or do they just want to use the activity as a basis for conversation? If the latter is true, do they like to do talk about the programme as it is being broadcast or once it has finished? Lastly, what medium do they use to talk about programmes? Figure 14 How much do you agree with the following statements about the reasons for 55 56 watching TV (%) Watching TV is more enjoyable with others 38 7 Agree strongly 27 Agree slightly Neither Disagree agree slightly nor disagree Disagree strongly TV is a social activity which brings the family together 36 3 Agree strongly 25 Agree slightly 17 23 Neither Disagree agree slightly nor disagree 9 12 Disagree strongly 18
There was no single view on this subject. On one hand, 34% of those taking part in the Deloitte/GfK survey felt that watching TV is more enjoyable with others, and another 28% agreed that TV is a good social activity that brings the family together. On the other hand, 26% report enjoying TV more when on their own, and 37% do not see it as a family-connecting activity. In contrast to interacting with others during the transmission of a programme, it seems most people prefer discussing TV programmes after watching them, perhaps because they find the content compelling. The results of the survey show that 39% of respondents, more women than men, often talk with others about TV programmes they have watched, 34% occasionally discuss TV programmes after watching, and only 26% rarely discuss them. 57 58 Figure 15 People enjoy talking about TV programmes they watch How often do you do the following while watching programs on your television? I often talk to others about the programs I ve watched on TV (category, %) Total Gender 7 Never 11 Rarely 26% 29% 23% Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 32 Occasionally 34% 35% 33% Agree 50 Frequently 39% 36% 43% Talk to other people in the room Total Male Female A new breed of media? Report on TV myths & truths 19
Communication remains traditional The Deloitte/GfK survey results also show that most people prefer traditional ways of communicating, like talking to people in the same room, phoning or text messaging. A much smaller number of people use the Internet to discuss TV programmes or find information on them, which means that even fewer people use social media for the same purpose. Today, however, over a quarter (27%) of respondents sometimes use social media to find out about new programmes to watch on TV. Given the short history of social media, these statistics show that social media has become a channel of interaction around TV programmes in a relatively short time. As people share more and more on their social media pages and social networks substitute traditional messaging channels with advanced messaging possibilities, social media is likely to conquer an element of traditional communication, enriching it with additional features. Television and social networks complement each other but collaboration is still minimal Many broadcasters believe that socialisation clearly enhances traditional TV. People who actually visit websites or make comments while watching TV reported that it makes viewing more exciting (72%), makes viewing richer (63%), makes viewing feel more like a communal experience (41%) and encourages them to watch more programmes/of each programme (14%). Only 26% said that it distracts them from watching. Television provides the topic of conversation, while social networks, by enabling conversation, amplifies the appeal of television. The emergence of second screen devices has strengthened this ability to converse since it eliminates the need to walk to the desktop computer and it enables people to access social networks while sitting in front of their TV. Another recent survey reports that 41% of people using a second screen when watching TV use it for social media, making it the second most popular activity after surfing on the Internet (51%). 59 The complementary nature of TV and social media implies that parties in the value chain should co-operate in developing new models to strengthen that combination. However, this symbiotic relationship has yet to fully take off, at least in the Dutch market. Nevertheless, if technology and consumer behaviour were aligned, and best practices developed to ensure optimal integration and usability, the mutual effects of TV and social media could be improved significantly. Combining TV with online advertising has already proved effective since it is reported to have raised the reach of TV campaigns when combined effectively. 60 Figure 16 Have you interacted with a TV program other than to vote? 61 Send in an answer to win a contest/prize Tweeted a comment 4 10 Social network Other No Entered myself in a competition 4 Posted a comment on a social media site 3 Other 1 No I have not interacted 82 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20