STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT REPORT 2005 Sub-report 3: Climate Change Malta Environment & Planning Authority January 2006 29
Climate Change Key messages Malta s greenhouse gas emissions increased by 44 percent between 1990 and 2003, and derive largely from the energy and transport sectors. There is an urgent need to decouple economic growth from energy generation. The Maltese climate has changed slightly over the last 50 years, and is slowly becoming warmer and dryer, consistent with international climate change predictions. Malta is expected to suffer moderate impacts from climate change, mainly related to deterioration of water supplies and quality, and more frequent extreme weather events. Yet due its dependence on coastal activities its economic vulnerability is expected to be moderate to moderately high. Even if global society gradually reduces its greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades, climate change is likely to continue over the next centuries; mitigation and adaptation strategies are therefore necessary. 3.1 Malta s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Climate change is one of the most serious environmental threats facing the world today. Indeed it is a key priority of the EU 6 th Environmental Action Programme, the EU Sustainable Development Strategy and the Lisbon Strategy. 59 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the principal policy instrument governing international action on climate change. Malta ratified the Convention in 1994 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2001. Under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and the specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, Malta s current formal position is that of a developing country within the context of the Convention. To date it remains a non-annex 1 party without any quantified greenhouse gas (GHG) emission limitations and reduction targets. Under these international instruments, Malta s obligations are principally limited to reporting of emissions and preparation of periodic national communications. However, the EU has ratified the Kyoto Protocol as an Annex I signatory, and has committed to reducing its emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by the commitment period from 2008 to 2012. As a European Union member state, Malta is obliged to abide by EU legislative instruments that address climate change. Emissions Malta s overall emissions of greenhouse gases rose by more than 44 percent between 1990 and 2003, with CO 2 being by far the most significant 59 COM(2001) 31 final; COM(2001)264 final; COM(2005) 24 final. 30
contributor. Indeed, these overall emissions rose almost in parallel with the net rise in CO 2 emissions (almost 44 percent over the same period). 60 EU-15 GHG emissions were 3.3 percent below 1990 levels in, however, in 2003 emissions rose to 1.4 percent below 1990 levels. EU-25 emissions were 5.5 percent below the 1990 level in 2003. 61 2600 2400 2200 1800 1600 1400 1200 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Emissions in Gg 2001 2002 2003 CO2 CH4 N2O NOx CO NMVOC SO2 Source: MEPA 2005 Chart 3.1 Emissions of greenhouse gases by gas for Malta (1990 2003) Despite the fact that its GHG emissions continue to rise, Malta has one of the lowest GHG emission rates per capita in the EU; seven tonnes per capita compared to the EU average of 11 tonnes in. Nevertheless Malta has a relatively high rate of GHG emissions per unit GDP, standing at 910 tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per million Euro as against the EU average of 605 tonnes in, 62 which is likely to be related to low levels of efficiency in energy generation and consumption. In 2003, Malta accounted for just 0.055 percent of total EU greenhouse gas emissions. 60 61 62 MEPA 2005. EEA 2005. MRAE 2004a. 31
emissions in kilotonnes CO2 equiv. 3500 3000 2500 1500 1000 500 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 Energy Industry Transport Agriculture Waste Other Fuel Combustion Chart 3.2 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector Source: MEPA 2005 Energy Generation The energy generation sector contributes approximately 63 percent of Malta s direct GHG emissions, with approximately 75 percent of national CO 2 emissions. It is largely responsible for the steep rise in emissions in 2002. CO 2 emissions from this sector stood at 1,400 kilotonnes in 1990, rising to 1,973 kilotonnes in 2003, an increase of 41 percent. 63 As indicated in Chapter 1, energy consumption continues to rise, with a growth of 61 percent between 1990 and 2002. The domestic and commercial sectors have contributed most significantly to the increase in demand. This trend is expected to continue. Malta s total energy generated per unit GDP (at constant prices) has risen sharply, particularly since 2002, after declining during the 1990s. Major contributing factors to this change in direction may be related to the sharp rise in energy generation since the hot summer of 2002 as compared to the rate of GDP growth, which has been slower. This trend is a matter of concern since it demonstrates that Malta has not been able to continue generating cleaner economic growth. There is an urgent need to decouple economic growth from energy consumption and limit CO 2 emissions from power plants to levels stipulated in Malta s National Allocation Plan. 64 In the short- to medium-term, Malta will need to map out, based on coordination between the principal sectors involved, a sustainable development 63 64 MEPA 2005. The National Allocation Plan is prepared pursuant to obligations under the EU Directive that establishes an emissions trading scheme for greenhouse gas emissions within the European Union. (MRAE 2004a) 32
path for the energy sector in line with EU energy scenarios, the EU post-kyoto climate regime, and EU renewable energy targets. Electricity generation (KWh) per unit GDP (Lm) 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 Chart 3.2 Energy intensity of growth Source: NSO Transport Transport is the second highest but fastest growing contributor to national GHG emissions. Emissions from this sector increased steadily between 1990 (342 kilotonnes) and 2003 (525 kilotonnes), 65 in step with rising vehicle numbers 66 (see Chapter 1). This sector has increased its share of emissions by 53 percent over the period under consideration and now stands at 20 percent of total CO 2 emissions. Transport is also the major emitter of carbon monoxide. In the EU, transport energy consumption and the resulting emissions of greenhouse gases are increasing due to a rise in transport volumes that outweigh increases in efficiency. 67 In 2002 the transport sector s emissions in EU-15 rose to 22 percent higher than 1990 levels. 68 It is evident that Malta is following this international trend; how easy it will be to decouple the growth in Malta s transport volumes from economic growth remains to be seen. Other Sectors Fossil fuel use in industry, the commercial and institutional sector and the residential sector accounts for a further contribution of about 5 percent, of CO 2 emissions. Waste and agriculture are the main contributors of methane emissions. 65 66 67 68 MEPA 2005. MRAE 2004a. EEA 2004b. CEC 2005a. 33
3.2 Climate change and its impacts The climate in Malta and the world Rainfall and temperature are key indicators of climatic conditions, and their distribution in space and time vitally affects social and economic practices, particularly for those engaged in agriculture. In the Maltese Islands rainfall is the only direct natural source of water and is in scarce supply due to the dry climate. Despite a fluctuating trend (see Chart 3.3) the data indicates that precipitation over the past 50 years has tended to decrease. Average rainfall for the intervals 1950-1975 and 1975 decreased by 17 percent from 549mm to 453mm. Extrapolation of this trend suggests a 50 percent probability of a 17 percent decrease in annual total precipitation in Malta by 2100. 69 At the same time, the number of days with thunderstorms has increased by nine since 1950, and incidence of rainfall being heavier and of short duration is increasing, indicating that the global trend towards more extreme weather events may also be indicated in Malta. 70 This trend is also experienced more generally in southern, eastern and central Europe, which are undergoing either small changes in precipitation or becoming dryer by up to 20 percent. However, global precipitation increased by about 2 percent during the last century with large variations between continents and also within Europe. Chart 3.3 displays time series data for temperature and rainfall between 1950 and. Despite year-to-year fluctuations, there is a small upward trend in temperature and a slight downward trend in rainfall. The average temperature for the period 1950 1960 was 18.68 C, while average temperature rose to 18.87 C during the period 1980 1990 and further to 19.38 C between 1990 and. The highest temperature recorded for the period under review was in August 1999 when the temperature reached 43.7 C. Statistical analysis of meteorological data over the past 77 years indicates that the mean annual air temperature in Malta has increased by approximately 0.5 C. 71 Over the past 100 years, mean temperature has increased by 0.7 C globally, and by 0.95 C in Europe. 72 This contrasts with the EU s indicative target of limiting the long-term global temperature increase to 2 C. Observed global temperature rise is consistent with the expected rise estimated from increased levels of greenhouse gases in the earth s atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 69 MRAE 2004b. 70 MRAE 2004b 71 MRAE 2004b. 72 EEA 2004b. 34
(IPCC) predicts an increase in global mean temperature of 1.4 to 5.8 C by 2100, 73 and European temperatures are projected to rise by a further 2.0 C to 6.3 C by 2100. 74 European sea levels are also on the rise, by about 0.1 m to 0.2m over the past century, and projections indicate further rises. 75 This suggests that the Maltese climate is slowly becoming warmer and dryer, consistent with global climate change predictions. The First National Communication of Malta to the UNFCCC 76 predicts that the mean annual temperature in Malta will increase by a further 3 C by 2100. 20.5 20.0 19.5 19.0 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Degrees Celcius 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 millimetres Average temperature Total Rainfall Chart 3.3: Temperature and Rainfall since 1950 Source: NSO Impacts of Climate change on Malta and the world Evidence is now growing of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, human health and economic activity. The impacts for Malta have been estimated in the First National Communication of Malta to the UNFCCC. 77 From a global perspective, Malta is expected to suffer moderate impacts from climate change. Yet its economic vulnerability to climate change is expected to be moderate to moderately high, due its small island geography and its dependence on tourism and other coastal activities. The Communication predicts significant impacts related to deterioration of water supply and quality, and more frequent extreme weather events (including heavy rainfall, severe heat waves and long spells of drought). This is likely to be accompanied by an increase in soil erosion and desertification processes, and 73 74 75 76 77 Houghton et al. 2001. CEC 2005b. EEA 2004a. MRAE 2004b. MRAE 2004b. 35
threats to public health, particularly for groups such as the aged, the very young, the obese and the infirm, individuals suffering from cardio-circulatory-related conditions and those undertaking heavy physical work such as manual labourers or athletes. A sea level rise of 1cm is currently indicated 78, and a rise of 0.5m is estimated by 2050 and of 1m by 2100. This would impact upon sea water characteristics and fish stocks, and give rise to coastal erosion and inundation, which would affect coastal development and infrastructure. It would also lead to reduced biodiversity as coastal habitats change, the climate becomes drier and water availability decreases. Climate change is likely to have a moderate to moderately high effect on Malta s society, environment and economy, particularly due to the risks associated with extreme weather events. On a European scale, the consequences of climate change are estimated to include economic losses resulting from extreme weather events such as flooding, storms and droughts. Although a lengthening of the agricultural growing season may be expected, in some parts of Europe this sector may be threatened by increased water stress. 79 The most identifiable impact of climate change so far has been the retreat of snow cover, glaciers and Arctic sea ice a third of the European Alpine Glacier area, constituting half the mass, was lost between 1850 and 1980. 80 At the same time, the EU predicts that by 2050 climate change could endanger the survival of 15 to 37 percent of all species. Even if society gradually reduces its greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades, climate change is likely to continue over the next centuries; mitigation and adaptation strategies 81 at various scales are therefore necessary. 82 78 Data from the Physical Oceanography Unit of the International Ocean Institute s Malta Operational Centre at the University of Malta, cited in MRAE 2004b. 79 EEA 2004a. 80 EEA 2004b. 81 EEA 2004b. 82 These issues are being taken into account in the review of Malta s Structure Plan, which will encourage energy generation from renewable sources and encourage incorporation of energy efficiency measures in major developments. 36
References CEC (Commission of the European Communities). 2005a. Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament 2004 Environmental Policy Review. COM(2005) 17 final, European Communities, Luxemburg. CEC (Commission of the European Communities). 2005b. Communication from The Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. Winning the Battle Against Global Climate Change. COM(2005) 35 final, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels. EEA (European Environment Agency). 2004a. EEA Signals 2004, EEA, Copenhagen. EEA (European Environment Agency). 2004b. Impacts of Europe s Changing Climate: An indicator-based assessment. EEA Report No. 2/2004, EEA, Copenhagen. EEA (European Environment Agency). 2005. Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990 2003 and inventory report 2005. Submission to the UNFCCC Secretariat. Revised final version, 27 May 2005 Version 1.3, EEA, Copenhagen. Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J. and Xiaosu, D. (eds.). 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UK. MEPA (Malta Environment and Planning Authority). 2005. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Malta 1990-2003. MEPA, Floriana. MRAE (Ministry for Rural Affairs and the Environment). 2004a. National Allocation Plan for Malta (2005-2007). Submission to the European Commission, 18th October 2004. MRAE (Ministry for Rural Affairs and the Environment). 2004b. The First Communication of Malta to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Report prepared by the University of Malta Physics Department (editors Charles V. Sammut and Alfred Micallef) for the Ministry for Rural Affairs and the Environment, April 2004. 37