Equity Research ANCHOR REPORT China insurance: Life faces headwinds Life running out of value, switch into AIA from China Life & CPIC; non-life has positive catalysts We think now is an appropriate time for investors to consider switching out of Chinese life insurers into AIA, given AIA is still delivering more than 2% y-y NBV growth with strong management execution. We downgrade China Life and CPIC to Neutral. We reiterate Buy on AIA, which has underperformed over the last few months following the AIG placement in mid-december which may have absorbed potential buyers. In non-life, we believe the insurance regulator will remain strict on commission rates for motor insurance this year to clamp down on aggressive competition. In general, we expect profitability of non-lifers to record positive trends in 213F and expect P&C companies to beat expectations. We upgrade PICC to Buy. February 7, 213 Research analysts China Insurance David Chung - NIHK david.m.chung@nomura.com +852 2252 621 Lucy Feng - NIHK lucy.feng@nomura.com +852 2252 2165 Ben Huang - NIHK ben.huang@nomura.com +852 2252 6242 Key analysis in this anchor report includes: Key headwinds faced by life insurers in 213. FY12 preview and 1Q13 outlook. See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-us analysts.
China insurance INSURANCE EQUITY RESEARCH Life faces headwinds Life running out of value, switch into AIA from China Life & CPIC; non-life has positive catalysts February 7, 213 Valuation for life insurers getting rich but headwinds still unresolved China s insurance sector has returned 15% over the past three months following the 15% gain seen in the A-share index. In particular, our sector top pick, CPIC, has outperformed peers by 1pp during the same period. While we are certainly not making a call on the A-share market and we could very likely end up being too early in saying this, we think it is important to remind investors the rising risks of holding insurers at current valuations for purely its leverage to the A-share market. We downgrade China Life and CPIC to Neutral on a valuation basis. Out of the three large cap life insurers we cover (China Life, Ping An and CPIC), we continue to favour CPIC for its well capitalised position and better-than-peers new business growth. Life to disappoint; non-life to pleasantly surprise Buy PICC While we think most investors understand the risks associated with maturity payments and the potential for more policy surrenders in 213, we believe they have generally downplayed or even ignored them. Therefore, we believe there may be room for downside surprises for the life insurers. While we have to be honest and admit that we would probably have higher conviction on this upgrade if PICC P&C s FY13F P/B were nearer 2x rather than the current 2.2x, especially in terms of absolute performance, we would still recommend investors if they have to pick an insurer for an A- share proxy to select PICC P&C. We believe the insurance regulator will remain strict on commission rates for motor insurance this year to clamp down on aggressive competition. We think generally profitability for the nonlife sector will trend quite well in 213F and beat expectations. Switching out from Chinese life insurers; Reaffirm Buy on AIA We think now is an appropriate time for investors to consider switching out of their Chinese life insurers into AIA, given AIA is still delivering more than 2% y-y NBV growth with strong management execution. AIA has been a relative underperformer ytd and over the last few months we believe this can be partially attributable to the AIG placement on 17 Dec 212, which perhaps took a good tranche of the marginal buyers given it was 13.69% of the outstanding share capital. AIA is due to release its results by late February and it has a tendency to outperform after results while on the other hand, we are expecting mediocre results for the Chinese insurers, scheduled to release around mid to late March. Anchor themes Following the recent re-rating of the sector on the back of the A- share rally, we believe expectations have run ahead of fundamentals. We see downside risk for the life sector and recommend investors to switch to PICC P&C. Nomura vs consensus Our FY13F earnings forecasts are generally in line with consensus except for China Life and CPIC. Research analysts China Insurance David Chung - NIHK david.m.chung@nomura.com +852 2252 621 Lucy Feng - NIHK lucy.feng@nomura.com +852 2252 2165 Ben Huang - NIHK ben.huang@nomura.com +852 2252 6242 Fig. 1: Stocks for action Ticker Ratings Current price (HKD) TP (HKD) potential up/downside (%) PICC 2328 HK Buy ( ) 11.8 14 ( ) 19 CPIC 261 HK Neutral ( ) 3.3 32 6 China Life 2628 HK Neutral ( ) 26. 27 4 Ping An 2318 HK Neutral 69.55 67 (4) AIA 1299 HK Buy 3.85 36 ( ) 17 CTIH 966 HK Buy 16.38 18 1 Note: closing prices as of 31 Jan 213. Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-us analysts.
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 Contents 3 Valuation table 3 Performance table 4 Sustainable re-rating of life insurers more likely in 215F 5 Potential rate rise in 2H13F another key headwind 6 New policy products may disappoint commercially 6 Non-life profitability should trend well in 213F 7 Key operating trends in 1H12 9 FY12 preview/1q13 outlook 9 FY12 results unlikely to trigger further re-rating 1 PICC Property & Casualty 14 China Pacific Insurance 19 China Life Insurance 24 Ping An Insurance Group 29 AIA 33 China Tai Ping Insurance 37 Appendix A-1 2
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 Valuation table Fig. 2: Insurers valuation table Current price Potential up/ NB Multiple Bloomberg Mkt cap TP P/EV (X) P/B(X) P/E (X) Div. Y ROE ROA ticker (USDmn) Rating (HKD) (HKD) downside 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F Insurance China Life 2628 HK 91,478 Neutral 26. 27. 4% 9 1.8 1.5 3. 2.8 47.3 23.5.7% 1.5% 6% 12%.8% 1.4% Ping An 2318 HK 63,71 Neutral 69.55 67. -4% 6 1.8 1.5 2.9 2.5 2.6 15.7.8% 1.% 15% 17%.9% 1.% CPIC 261 HK 32,422 Neutral 3.3 32. 6% 6 1.7 1.5 2.6 2.6 46.9 29.3.8% 1.2% 6% 9%.7% 1.% PICC 2328 HK 18,447 Buy 11.8 14. 19% na na na 2.8 2.2 11.6 1.6 2.2%.% 26% 23% 3.5% 3.2% CTIH 966 HK 3,465 Buy 16.38 18. 1% 4 1.6 1.3 2.2 1.9 21.5 14.7.%.% 11% 14%.6%.8% AIA 1299 HK 47,493 Buy 3.85 36. 17% 9 1.6 1.4 2. 1.8 18.3 16.8 1.2% 1.3% 12% 11% 2.1% 2.1% Sector mean 7 1.6 1.4 2.7 2.4 32.4 2..9% 1.2% 11% 14% 1.2% 1.5% Note: closing price as of 31 January 213; P/EV for Ping An Life, CPIC Life and Taiping Life Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research Performance table Fig. 3: Insurers - performance table (%) 1m 2m 3m YTD China Life 3 14 14 3 Ping An 7 19 13 7 CPIC 6 19 25 6 CTIH 4 27 23 4 PICC 9 18 14 9 AIA 2 2 2 HSI Index 5 8 1 5 SHCOMP 5 2 15 5 Note: closing price as of 31 January 213 Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research Fig. 4: China outlook summary table % y-y unless otherwise stated 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 212 213 214 Real GDP 8.1 7.6 7.4 8. 8.2 8. 7.4 7.2 7.8 7.7 7.5 Consumer prices 3.8 2.9 1.9 2. 2.1 3.1 3.9 4.8 2.6 3.5 4. Core CPI 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 2. 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.5 2.2 2. Retail sales (nominal) 14.9 13.9 13.5 15. 16.2 15.9 15.5 15.6 14.3 15.8 16. Fixed-asset investment (nominal, ytd) 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.8 21. 21.2 21.3 22. 2.8 22. 2. Industrial production (real) 11.6 9.5 9.1 1.1 1.8 1.5 9.6 9.6 1.1 1.1 9.7 Exports (value) 7.6 1.5 4.5 9.5 3. 4. 6. 6. 7.9 4.9 6. Imports (value) 6.9 6.5 1.4 2.8 7. 8. 9. 9. 4.4 8.3 1. Trade surplus (US$bn) 1.1 68.8 79.5 83.4-16.9 52.9 7.1 74.3 231.2 18.3 122. Current account (% of GDP) 1.7 1. -.4 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -1.5-1.5-1.6 New increased RMB loans 8.2 9. 9. 1-yr bank lending rate (%) 6.56 6.31 6. 6. 6. 6. 6.25 6.5 6. 6.5 6.5 1-yr bank deposit rate (%) 3.5 3.25 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.25 3.5 3. 3.5 3.5 Reserve requirement ratio (%) 2.5 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 19. Exchange rate (CNY/USD) 6.29 6.35 6.28 6.23 6.22 6.18 6.16 6.15 6.23 6.15 6.14 Note: Numbers in bold are actual values; others forecast. Interest rate and currency forecasts are end of period; other measures are period average. All forecasts are modal forecasts (i.e., the single most likely outcome). Table reflects data available as of 1 January 213. Source: CEIC, Nomura Economics Team 3
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 Sustainable re-rating of life insurers more likely in 215F We highlight one common misperception in the market: interest rate cuts or easing liquidity that lead to falling yields of wealth management/trust products will help make life insurance products incrementally more competitive. In our opinion, lack of growth in 2H12 since the benchmark rate cuts has already reflected the fallacy of this proposition. We think the disconnect lies in the perception that sluggish investment yields of insurers in 211 meant that insurers could not provide competitive crediting rates for new policies in 212. We note from the charts below that premium growth appears to lag behind A- share price movement by a year or so generally. Given the prices of A-share insurers only really rallied towards the end of 212, we expect premium growth to really pick up from at least 214F. Fig. 5: Sector investment yield vs life premium growth Fig. 6: Life premium growth vs SHCOMP (%) investment yield (LHS) (%) (%) life premium y-y growth (LHS) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 life premium y-y growth (RHS) 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 SHCOMP (RHS) Jul-5 Dec-5 May-6 Oct-6 Mar-7 Aug-7 Jan-8 Jun-8 Nov-8 Apr-9 Sep-9 Feb-1 Jul-1 Dec-1 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: CEIC, Company data, Nomura research Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Nomura research A more blue sky scenario, however, would be for the shares of A-share insurers to rally in 213 and then collapse in 214, suggesting that life policies crediting rates (based on 213 investment yields) would compare very favourably with the share-price performance of A-share insurers similar to the trend seen in 27-8. However, note that since the share-price performance of the A-share market was actually very poor in 28, insurers share prices generally de-rated in 28 and only picked up in 29. Fig. 7: 27-9 sector PEV vs life premium growth Fig. 8: 27-9 sector PEV vs SHCOMP (x) 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 sector 12m forward PEV (LHS) life premium y-y growth (RHS) Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 (%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 (x) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 sector 12m forward PEV (LHS) SHCOMP (RHS) Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Nomura research Source: Bloomberg, Nomura estimates 4
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 As a result, we remain very sceptical over whether there will be a genuine and sustainable recovery in Chinese life insurers share prices in 213. While we understand it is difficult not to own the shares of insurers when the A-share market is rising, we continue to advise caution as we believe fundamentals have run ahead of expectations and could no longer justify the current valuations. As well, we believe that more headwinds lie ahead for the life sector in 213F and an A-share rally alone will not help to alleviate the pressure. Given this backdrop, we tend to favour the non-life names over the life insurers and see PICC as a better alternative for investors seeking A-share exposure. Potential rate rise in 2H13F another key headwind We note that life insurance sales have been hindered much from the relatively high interest rate environment seen over the last couple of years. Although investors expected eased liquidity from the interest rate cuts last year to prop up sales, it didn t materialise. Given market expectations of rising benchmark rates in 2H13 (or in any case at least further rate cuts seem unlikely in the near future, in our view), our China economist is expecting two rate hikes in 2H13; as a result we continue to see pressure for life insurance sales in the near term. Indeed, we see continued rising policy surrender risk for the life sector generally. Fig. 9: 1-year time deposit rate vs life premium growth Fig. 1: CPI vs life premium growth (%) 1-year time deposit rate (LHS) 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1. life premium y-y growth (RHS) Jul-5 Dec-5 May-6 Oct-6 Mar-7 Aug-7 Jan-8 Jun-8 Nov-8 Apr-9 Sep-9 Feb-1 Jul-1 Dec-1 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 (%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 (%) CPI (LHS) 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 life premium y-y growth (RHS) Jul-5 Nov-5 Mar-6 Jul-6 Nov-6 Mar-7 Jul-7 Nov-7 Mar-8 Jul-8 Nov-8 Mar-9 Jul-9 Nov-9 Mar-1 Jul-1 Nov-1 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 (%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Source: CEIC, Nomura research Source: CEIC, Nomura research Fig. 11: Real interest rate vs life premium growth Fig. 12: Sector PEV vs investment yield (%) real interest rate (LHS) life premium y-y growth (RHS) 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Jul-5 Dec-5 May-6 Oct-6 Mar-7 Aug-7 Jan-8 Jun-8 Nov-8 Apr-9 Sep-9 Feb-1 Jul-1 Dec-1 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 (%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 (x) 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. sector 12m forward PEV (LHS) investment yield (RHS) 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 (%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: CEIC, Nomura research Source: CEIC, Company data, Bloomberg, Nomura research 5
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 New policy products may disappoint commercially In this section, we analyse two types of critical illness product one is a rider attached to a policy and supported by the local governments while another is designed from a more commercial perspective and generally sold through agents. For the rider, we use Xiangyang ( 襄 阳 ) as an example. In Xiangyang, the social healthcare security fund will contribute CNY2 each month per person. For the first CNY3, of the medical expenses, both the patient and social healthcare security fund will be responsible (5:5). For medical expenses in the range of CNY3,-9,, the insurer will pay 6-65% of the cost with a cap at CNY9,. Thus, putting this into perspective, medical claims exposed by an insurer are as much as 162x that of the policy s annual premium, on our numbers. For the commercial critical illness product, we take China Life s popular Kangning critical illness product as an example. If the sum assured of a whole-life product is CNY3,, covering critical illness and death, with premiums payable for 1 years, the annual premium would be CNY16,35. Thus, the sum exposed from the insurer s point of view is only 18x that of the annual premium. As such, it appears that insurers are exposed to a much higher level of contingent liability with policy-type critical illness products compared to the commercial types. While admittedly, our analysis is somewhat primitive, we hope to illustrate to investors that with this backdrop, insurers are likely to be generally quite cautious in developing these types of products. Hence, we do not expect insurers to be very active in developing such products. Even if they do, we believe it would be necessary to understand better the underlying motives; in our view, such products tend to offer very limited returns on capital even if we were to assume that the insurers manage their potential tail risk appropriately. Another important point to realize is that protection-type products are really only highmargin products when they are selectively sold. When it comes to mass market distribution, we believe the margins are very much unlikely to be high enough to justify selling them on a commercial basis. Non-life profitability should trend well in 213F We believe the insurance regulator will remain strict on commission rates for motor insurance in 213F to clamp down on aggressive competition stemming from a more profitable market, and likely to relax them only over time as part of the pricing deregulation process and/or when it gets more comfortable with the industry s competitive landscape, for example, when insurers understand that vicious competition tends to lead to profitability being passed to intermediaries in terms of higher commission rates while detrimental to the sustainability of the industry. Additionally, it is also worthwhile to highlight on this note that even if there is a pricing reform, profitability for the motor insurance business is also unlikely to immediately take a deep dive from current levels, as we believe an ultimate loss ratio will be set by the regulator and insurers can only price their policies above this level. Hence, as long as the commission war does not blow out of proportion, we think generally profitability for the non-life sector will trend quite well in 213F. 6
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 Fig. 13: PICC combined ratio Fig. 14: VoNB growth of life insurers vs NPAT growth of PICC (%) loss ratio expense ratio 12 13.5 11.1 96.7 98.7 1 92.5 95.4 92.4 8 35.7 3.7 3.6 3.1 27.6 28.8 3.9 6 4 67.8 7.3 66.1 68.6 64.9 66.6 61.5 2 1H9 2H9 1H1 2H1 1H11 2H11 1H12 Source: Company data, Nomura research (%) FY12F FY13F FY14F 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 PICC AIA CPIC Life Taiping Life Source: Nomura estimates China Life Ping An Life Key operating trends in 1H12 Fig. 15: New policies per agent per month 2.5 Ping An Life CPIC Life New China Life Taiping Life 2. 1.7 2. 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1. 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1..9.5.8 Fig. 16: Insurers average policy size vs income per capita and GDP per capita (CNY) 8, 6, 4, 2, Ping An Life (LHS) CPIC Life (LHS) New China Life (LHS) Income per capita (RHS) GDP per capita (RHS) (CNY) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,. FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11 1H12 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11 Source: Company data, Nomura research Note: NCI 211 policy size is not available, 1H11 data is used Source: Company data, CEIC, Nomura research Fig. 17: Number of agents (') 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 China Life Ping An Life China Pacific Life New China Life Taiping Life 777 716 76 655 668 64 65 638 685 682 453 487 494 417 356 32 28 292 188 2 25 254 27 224 2 227 18 2 199 24 27 9 18 26 41 47 61 51 46 51 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11 1H12 Source: Company data, Nomura research Fig. 18: Average new individual life policy size (CNY) 8, 6, 4, 2, 4,126 3,765 1,162 Ping An Life CPIC Life New China Life Taiping Life 4,87 2,127 Source: Company data, Nomura research 5,642 3,119 1,898 1,635 1,823 7,141 7,131 7,15 2,456 5,824 3,26 2,89 3,749 3,239 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11 1H12 7
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 Fig. 19: VoNB growth Ping An Life (%) CPIC Life 6 AIA 5 4 3 2 1 Taiping Life China Life New China Life Fig. 2: VoNB as % of EV 1H12 (%) VoNB by EV 25 2 15 1 5 12 2 VONB & expected return on EV as % of EV 18 1 1 19 7 16 4 11 8 17-1 -2 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11 1H12 Ping An Life Taiping Life CPIC Life China Life AIA New China Life Source: Company data, Nomura research Note: FY11 expected return on EV for Ping An Life, Taiping Life and CPIC Life Source: Company data, Nomura research Fig. 21: Total premium mix by product 1H12 1H12 (%) Single Regular-new Regular-renewal 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 26 15 59 Source: Company data, Nomura research 6 21 73 55 61 59 28 24 25 17 16 15 China Life Ping An Life CPIC Life NCI TPL Fig. 22: Total premium mix by distribution 1H12 (%) Individual Bancassurance Group/Other channel 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 59 41 92 Source: Company data, Nomura research 51 39 54 45 7 1 1 2 China Life Ping An Life CPIC Life NCI TPL 4 58 8
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 FY12 preview/1q13 outlook FY12 results unlikely to trigger further re-rating The insurers under our coverage are scheduled to release their FY12 results by the end of March 213. We are generally not expecting a lot of positives from this but we highlight that with the recent rally in the A-share market, on a y-y basis, the A-share index is back to positive territory since late December and hence should help to alleviate some pressure from impairment charges on earnings. However, other than investment, we see limited positive catalysts in terms of top-line premium growth, for example, given that on a monthly incremental basis, retail deposits still appear difficult to come by which should make strong premium growth unlikely, in our view. Fig. 23: Life premium vs retail deposits by year Fig. 24: Life premium growth vs monthly net retail deposit (CNYbn) 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 2 Life premium (LHS) Net new demand deposits (RHS) Net new time deposits (RHS) 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 (CNYbn) 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 (%) monthly net retail demand deposits (RHS) (CNYbn) 14 monthly net retail time deposits (RHS) life premium y-y growth (LHS) 1,5 12 1, 1 8 6 4 2 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 5-5 -1, Source: CEIC, Nomura research Source: CEIC, Nomura research Fig. 25: SHCOMP y-y movement (%) 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3 4-Jan-12 18-Jan-12 1-Feb-12 15-Feb-12 29-Feb-12 14-Mar-12 28-Mar-12 11-Apr-12 25-Apr-12 9-May-12 23-May-12 6-Jun-12 2-Jun-12 4-Jul-12 18-Jul-12 1-Aug-12 15-Aug-12 29-Aug-12 12-Sep-12 26-Sep-12 1-Oct-12 24-Oct-12 7-Nov-12 21-Nov-12 5-Dec-12 19-Dec-12 2-Jan-13 16-Jan-13 3-Jan-13 Source: Bloomberg, Nomura research 9
PICC Property & Casualty 2328.HK 2328 HK INSURANCE EQUITY RESEARCH Upgrade to Buy; negatives well priced in Our preferred play for investors seeking A-share exposure February 7, 213 Rating Up from Neutral Target price Increased from 11. Closing price January 31, 213 Buy HKD 14. HKD 11.8 Potential upside +18.6% Perhaps Street is too pessimistic on non-life but vice versa for life While we have to be honest and admit that we would probably have higher conviction on this upgrade if PICC P&C s FY13F P/B were nearer 2x rather than the current 2.2x, we believe that given our view the Chinese insurance sector can no longer be considered as cheap on an absolute basis, we see relatively more downside risks in terms of the fundamentals for the life business relative to non-life now. This is especially evident in the quite clear consensus on the life over non-life view for 213 from investors we have met over the past month. At this point, we would recommend investors if they have to pick an insurer for an A-share proxy to select PICC P&C given our view that the market has probably built in too negative an assumption for the non-life business and that nonlife is unlikely to deteriorate too much in 213F. We have upgraded our recommendation to Buy with a target price of HKD14.. Underwriting profit still solid; more direct benefit from investment We revise up our earnings by 18% for 213F and 21% for 214F, assuming a higher investment yield of 4.54%. While we expect the combined ratio for 2H12F to be higher, we do not expect the combined ratio to deteriorate materially in 213F given our view that the regulator will remain strict on commission rates and pricing. We believe assuming a combined ratio of 96.8% for 213F is sufficient to account for the competitive landscape at this stage. On the other hand, we do expect a more stable investment environment to help support earnings growth for 213F. Indeed, for non-life insurers, this impact will come more directly relative to life insurers given policyholders do not get to share the investment gains of non-life insurers. Anchor themes Following the recent re-rating of the sector on the back of the A- share rally, we believe expectations have run ahead of fundamentals. We see downside risk for the life sector and recommend investors to switch to PICC P&C. Nomura vs consensus Our FY13F earnings forecast is in line with consensus. Research analysts China Insurance David Chung - NIHK david.m.chung@nomura.com +852 2252 621 Lucy Feng - NIHK lucy.feng@nomura.com +852 2252 2165 Ben Huang - NIHK ben.huang@nomura.com +852 2252 6242 31 Dec FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Currency (CNY) Actual Old New Old New Old New Net premium (mn) 133,134 142,47 142,47 157,1 157,1 173,484 173,484 Reported net profit (mn) 8,27 9,345 1,83 9,266 1,92 9,391 11,366 Normalised net profit (mn) 8,27 9,345 1,83 9,266 1,92 9,391 11,366 FD normalised EPS 68.61c 76.25c 82.27c 75.6c 89.1c 76.62c 92.74c FD norm. EPS growth (%) 46.7 11.1 19.9 -.8 8.3 1.3 4.1 FD normalised P/E (x) 14.3 N/A 11.6 N/A 1.7 N/A 1.2 Price/EV (x) na N/A na N/A na N/A na Price/implied VNB (x) na N/A na N/A na N/A na Dividend yield (%) 2.3 N/A 2.2 N/A na N/A na ROE (%) 26.8 24.7 26.4 2.3 23.1 16.8 19.1 ROA (%) 3.4 3.3 3.5 2.8 3.2 2.4 2.9 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart. See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-us analysts.
Nomura PICC Property & Casualty February 7, 213 Key data on PICC Property & Casualty Profit and Loss (CNYmn) Year-end 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Gross premiums 154,37 173,962 191,47 21,592 232,872 Government charges -31,317-4,828-48,641-53,582-59,388 Reinsurance ceded Net written premium 122,99 133,134 142,47 157,1 173,484 Change in unearned premium reserves Net earned premium 122,99 133,134 142,47 157,1 173,484 Claims and benefit payments -82,98-87,546-89,851-99,662-111,454 Change in reserves Commission and DAC expenses -23,412-2,29-27,719-32,493-36,66 Other expenses -14,144-21,541-2,699-21,572-23,7 Underwriting surplus 2,526 3,757 4,138 3,283 1,724 Recurrent investment income 2,89 9,129 9,783 1,711 12,841 Realised and unrealised gains 1,78-2,6-1, Investment income 3,968 6,529 8,783 1,711 12,841 Other income Employee share expense Operating profit 6,494 1,286 12,92 13,994 14,565 Amortisation Other non-operating income Associates and JCEs Pre-tax profit 6,494 1,286 12,92 13,994 14,565 Income tax -1,282-2,259-2,838-3,73-3,199 Net profit after tax 5,212 8,27 1,83 1,92 11,366 Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT 5,212 8,27 1,83 1,92 11,366 Extraordinary items Reported NPAT 5,212 8,27 1,83 1,92 11,366 Dividends -2,57-2,574 Transfer to retained earnings 5,212 5,52 7,59 1,92 11,366 Relative performance chart (one year) Source: ThomsonReuters, Nomura research (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute (HKD) 8.7 14.3 15.5 Absolute (USD) 8.6 14.2 15.4 Relative to index 4.5 3.1 3.7 Market cap (USDmn) 16,949.3 Estimated free float (%) 31. 52-week range (HKD) 12.28/7.81 3-mth avg daily turnover (USDmn) 24.15 Major shareholders (%) PICC Group 69. UST 9.9 Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research Notes Valuation and ratio analysis Reported P/E (x) 21.8 14.3 11.6 1.7 1.2 Normalised P/E (x) 21.8 14.3 11.6 1.7 1.2 FD normalised P/E (x) 21.8 14.3 11.6 1.7 1.2 FD normalised P/E at price target (x) 2.3 13.3 1.8 9.9 9.5 Dividend yield (%) na 2.3 2.2 na na Price/book (x) 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.2 1.8 Investment return (%) 3.13 3.92 4.23 4.23 4.24 Recurrent investment return (%) 2.28 5.49 4.71 4.23 4.24 Non-recurrent return/invt. return (%) 27.2-39.8-11.4.. Price/EV (x) na na na na na Price/implied VNB (x) na na na na na Loss ratio (%) 67.4 65.8 63.1 63.5 64.2 Combined ratio (%) 97.8 94. 95.2 96.8 98. Effective tax rate (%) 19.7 22. 22. 22. 22. Dividend payout (%). 31.2 25.5.. ROE (%) 22.4 26.8 26.4 23.1 19.1 ROA (%) 2.84 3.43 3.51 3.24 2.87 ROR (%) 4.7 6. 6.9 6.8 6.4 Growth (%) Life premiums na na na na na Non life premiums 28.8 12.7 9.8 1.2 1.6 Net profit 192.3 54. 25.6 8.3 4.1 Normalised EPS 192.3 46.7 19.9 8.3 4.1 Normalised FDEPS 192.3 46.7 19.9 8.3 4.1 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 11
Nomura PICC Property & Casualty February 7, 213 Balance Sheet (CNYmn) As at 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Cash and deposits 32,29 58,638 72,328 87,372 13,845 Bonds 92,567 98,62 12,957 146,115 173,663 Equities 19,1 22,512 27,768 33,544 39,868 Unit trusts Loans and mortgages Foreign investments Real estate Other investments 3,194 6,625 8,172 9,871 11,733 Total investments 146,971 185,837 229,225 276,93 329,18 Deferred acquisition costs Prepaid and unearned prem. reserves Debtors and prepayments Fixed assets Goodwill Separate account assets Other assets 54,814 79,87 8,383 88,473 97,465 Total assets 21,785 265,644 39,68 365,376 426,574 Insurance reserves Catastrophe reserves Insurance protection fund Deposit and investment contracts Separate account liabilities Provision for Unearned Premiums Provision for Outstanding Claims Interest bearing liabilities Other liabilities 176,951 23,484 268,357 312,113 36,88 Total liabilities 176,951 23,484 268,357 312,113 36,88 Minority interest Common stock 11,142 12,256 12,256 12,256 12,256 Preferred stock Retained earnings 8,612 1,221 16,29 22,169 28,75 Proposed dividends Other equity 5,8 12,683 12,75 18,838 25,435 Shareholders' equity 24,834 35,16 41,251 53,263 65,766 Total liabilities and equity 21,785 265,644 39,68 365,376 426,574 Notes Balance sheet ratios (%) Life solvency margin na na na na na Non-life solvency margin Net premiums/equity 495.2 378.7 345.2 294.8 263.8 Tech. reserves/total premiums..... Investment portfolio mix (%) Cash and deposits 21.9 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.6 Bonds 63. 52.8 52.8 52.8 52.8 Equities 12.9 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 Unit trusts..... Loans and mortgages..... Foreign investments..... Real estate..... Other investments 2.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Per share Reported EPS (CNY) 46.78c 68.61c 82.27c 89.1c 92.74c Norm EPS (CNY) 46.78c 68.61c 82.27c 89.1c 92.74c Fully diluted norm EPS (CNY) 46.78c 68.61c 82.27c 89.1c 92.74c DPS (CNY)..23.21.. BVPS (CNY) 2.23 2.87 3.37 4.35 5.37 Life/LT EVPS (CNY)..... Life/LT VNBPS (CNY)..... Value of non-life bus. PS (CNY)..... Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 12
Nomura PICC Property & Casualty February 7, 213 Negatives should be well priced in; actual results may not be as bad as consensus expects Fig. 26: PICC half-yearly results P&L 1H11 2H11 1H12 2H11 y-y 1H12 y-y Comments (CNYmn) (%) Net premiums earned 65,946 67,188 73,539 3 12 For 2H12/1H13, we are expecting around double digit y-y premium growth on gross basis while on net basis the growth should perhaps be higher given relatively lesser use of reinsurance. Net claims incurred (42,784) (44,762) (45,193) () 6 While we are expecting further pressure on claims for 2H12 largely due to seasonality, we are expecting more moderate rise for 1H13 as PICC continues to improve its claims process. Acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses (1,292) (9,998) (14,639) (12) 42 We are looking for PICC to manage its expense better and we think there will be support from the regulator which is trying to clamp down on commission rates. General and administrative (7,934) (9,348) (8,96) 13 2 expenses Underwriting profit 4,936 3,8 5,611 257 14 Investment income 2,933 3,596 4,52 66 38 Net realized and unrealized losses on investments (332) (2,268) (4) na 2 While we expect there maybe some investment losses in 2H12 still, we are anticipating a better 213 investment performance with less impairment. Investment expenses (85) (74) (95) (38) 12 Interest expenses credited to (5) (12) (5) 71 policyholders' deposits Exchange gains/(losses), net (234) (94) 21 (64) na Sundry income 48 172 37 (19) (23) Sundry expenses (4) (127) (45) (51) 13 Finance costs (514) (82) (825) 38 61 Share of profits of associates 56 52 62 (15) 11 PBT 6,763 3,523 8,413 12 24 Income tax (1,475) (784) (1,879) 45 27 Net profit attributed to shareholders 5,288 2,739 6,534 5 24 Overall, while we are expecting a weaker 2H12 due to seasonality, we are more optimistic on 1H13 which we think the likely lower underwriting profitabilty will be offset by better investment performance. Source: Company data, Nomura research Valuation methodology Our revised TP of HKD14 (from HKD11) is based on 2.5x our FY13F BVPS forecast of CNY4.35 and a sustainable ROE of 22.9%. We lift the TP mainly based on a higher investment yield assumption. We use the Gordon Growth Model [target P/BV = (sustainable ROE - long-term growth)/(cost of equity - long-term growth)] to derive our fair P/BV, assuming a cost of equity of 11% and a long-term growth rate of 3%. (Previously we valued PICC by using a present value of the net profit after tax and cost of capital approach) Investment risks Key downside risks include a worse-than-expected combined ratio from intensifying competition and poor returns from the A-share market, which would affect sentiment of insurers in general. 13
China Pacific Insurance 261.HK 261 HK INSURANCE EQUITY RESEARCH Downgrading to Neutral on valuation Still our preferred pick among life insurers February 7, 213 Rating Down from Buy Neutral Target price Remains HKD 32. Closing price January 31, 213 HKD 3.3 Potential upside +5.6% Lacking conviction, not withstanding A-share rally at current levels We downgrade CPIC to Neutral on a valuation basis as we see limited absolute upside from the current level, although CPIC remains our preferred pick for investors seeking life insurance exposure. While we continue to like CPIC for its capital position and still higher-than-peers life insurance new business growth, we find it difficult to further upgrade the stock at current valuation amid the uncertainty facing the industry in 213. We also believe it may be difficult to find marginal buyers not withstanding a further rally in the A-share index. The second prime beneficiary from our non-life over life call Our calculation indicates that CPIC can derive as much as a fifth to a quarter of its fair value from the non-life business. Hence, if our non-life over life sector call is correct, then CPIC would also be in a prime position to benefit other than PICC (2328 HK, Buy), although we do highlight the difference between the two non-life insurers operationally and as a result, the extent to which they will benefit from the continued strict regulatory control in the non-life segment might differ. Anchor themes Following the recent re-rating of the sector on the back of the A- share rally, we believe expectations have run ahead of fundamentals. We see downside risk for the life sector and recommend investors to switch to PICC P&C. Nomura vs consensus Our FY13F earnings forecast is 27% lower than consensus due to consensus's higher premium growth and lower impairment forecasts. Research analysts China Insurance David Chung - NIHK david.m.chung@nomura.com +852 2252 621 Lucy Feng - NIHK lucy.feng@nomura.com +852 2252 2165 Ben Huang - NIHK ben.huang@nomura.com +852 2252 6242 31 Dec FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Currency (CNY) Actual Old New Old New Old New Net premium (mn) 141,574 155,34 155,34 18,138 18,138 29,82 29,82 Reported net profit (mn) 8,313 4,485 4,485 7,313 7,313 6,676 6,676 Normalised net profit (mn) 8,313 4,485 4,485 7,313 7,313 6,676 6,676 FD normalised EPS 96.66c 52.16c 52.16c 82.81c 82.81c 73.67c 73.67c FD norm. EPS growth (%) -3.5-46. -46. 58.8 58.8-11. -11. FD normalised P/E (x) 25.3 N/A 46.7 N/A 29.3 N/A 33. Price/EV (x) 1.8 N/A 1.6 N/A 1.4 N/A 1.2 Price/implied VNB (x) 14.4 N/A 1.8 N/A 8.3 N/A 4.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.4 N/A.8 N/A 1.2 N/A 1.1 ROE (%) 1.6 5.7 5.7 8.8 8.8 7.6 7.6 ROA (%) 1.6.7.7 1. 1..8.8 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart. See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-us analysts.
Nomura China Pacific Insurance February 7, 213 Key data on China Pacific Insurance Profit and Loss (CNYmn) Year-end 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Gross premiums 139,555 154,958 17,556 198,471 23,747 Government charges Reinsurance ceded -13,422-13,384-15,523-18,333-21,665 Net written premium 126,133 141,574 155,34 18,138 29,82 Change in unearned premium reserves -6,382-4,336-4,4-5,222-6,23 Net earned premium 119,751 137,238 15,634 174,916 22,879 Claims and benefit payments Change in reserves -59,241-56,63-68,68-73,229-84,564 Commission and DAC expenses Other expenses -71,44-89,55-15,669-125,93-146,763 Underwriting surplus -1,894-8,375-23,13-23,47-28,448 Recurrent investment income 16,952 21,119 26,377 3,185 34,437 Realised and unrealised gains Investment income 16,952 21,119 26,377 3,185 34,437 Other income 4,624-2,84 1,887 1,887 1,887 Employee share expense Operating profit 1,682 9,94 5,162 8,665 7,876 Amortisation Other non-operating income -12 495 495 495 495 Associates and JCEs Pre-tax profit 1,67 1,399 5,657 9,16 8,371 Income tax -2,5-2,6-1,91-1,767-1,615 Net profit after tax 8,665 8,393 4,565 7,393 6,756 Minority interests -18-8 -8-8 -8 Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT 8,557 8,313 4,485 7,313 6,676 Extraordinary items Reported NPAT 8,557 8,313 4,485 7,313 6,676 Dividends -3,1-3,1-1,624-2,717-2,417 Transfer to retained earnings 5,547 5,33 2,861 4,596 4,259 Relative performance chart (one year) Source: ThomsonReuters, Nomura research (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute (HKD) 5.8 24.7 17.4 Absolute (USD) 5.7 24.6 17.4 Relative to index -.1 14.8-2.9 Market cap (USDmn) 33,135.9 Estimated free float (%) 63.7 52-week range (HKD) 32.5/21.25 3-mth avg daily turnover (USDmn) 55.6 Major shareholders (%) Fortune Investment 14.9 Shenergy Group 14.3 Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research Notes Valuation and ratio analysis Reported P/E (x) 25.1 25.3 46.7 29.3 33. Normalised P/E (x) 25.1 25.3 46.7 29.3 33. FD normalised P/E (x) 25.1 25.3 46.7 29.3 33. FD normalised P/E at price target (x) 26.5 26.8 49.4 31. 34.8 Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.4.8 1.2 1.1 Price/book (x) 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 Investment return (%) 4.31 4.52 4.85 4.87 4.88 Recurrent investment return (%) 4.31 4.52 4.85 4.87 4.88 Non-recurrent return/invt. return (%)..... Price/EV (x) 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Price/implied VNB (x) 18.1 14.4 1.8 8.3 4.5 Loss ratio (%) Combined ratio (%) Effective tax rate (%) 18.8 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 Dividend payout (%) 35.2 36.2 36.2 37.2 36.2 ROE (%) 11. 1.6 5.7 8.8 7.6 ROA (%) 1.96 1.59.73 1.4.83 ROR (%) 7.3 5.6 2.7 3.8 3. Growth (%) Life premiums 41.7 6.1 4.3 14.5 14.1 Non life premiums 5.5 19.5 18.7 18.9 19. Net profit 16.3-2.9-46. 63. -8.7 Normalised EPS 1.2-3.5-46. 58.8-11. Normalised FDEPS 1.2-3.5-46. 58.8-11. Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 15
Nomura China Pacific Insurance February 7, 213 Balance Sheet (CNYmn) As at 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Cash and deposits 126,297 155,754 177,861 22,417 23,251 Bonds 226,938 269,121 37,32 349,749 397,842 Equities 54,18 52,18 59,54 67,719 77,31 Unit trusts Loans and mortgages Foreign investments Real estate Other investments 17,851 31,257 35,694 4,622 46,27 Total investments 425,266 58,24 58,378 66,56 751,331 Deferred acquisition costs Prepaid and unearned prem. reserves Debtors and prepayments Fixed assets 6,831 7,833 Goodwill 149 962 Separate account assets Other assets 43,465 53,577 73,995 89,631 16,858 Total assets 475,711 57,612 654,374 75,137 858,189 Insurance reserves 267,953 325,558 393,626 466,855 551,419 Catastrophe reserves Insurance protection fund Deposit and investment contracts 51,272 47,182 5,64 54,548 59,73 Separate account liabilities Provision for Unearned Premiums Provision for Outstanding Claims Interest bearing liabilities Other liabilities 74,935 119,817 128,724 141,359 155,315 Total liabilities 394,16 492,557 572,954 662,763 765,88 Minority interest 1,254 1,259 1,313 1,49 1,49 Common stock 8,6 8,6 8,6 9,62 9,62 Preferred stock Retained earnings 13,221 17,993 2,854 25,52 29,779 Proposed dividends Other equity 58,476 5,23 5,652 51,383 52,51 Shareholders' equity 8,297 76,796 8,16 85,965 9,891 Total liabilities and equity 475,711 57,612 654,374 75,137 858,189 Notes Balance sheet ratios (%) Life solvency margin 241. 187.3 na na na Non-life solvency margin Net premiums/equity 149.1 178.7 188. 23.5 223.2 Tech. reserves/total premiums 192. 21.1 23.8 235.2 239. Investment portfolio mix (%) Cash and deposits 29.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Bonds 53.4 53. 53. 53. 53. Equities 12.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Unit trusts..... Loans and mortgages..... Foreign investments..... Real estate..... Other investments 4.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Per share Reported EPS (CNY) 1. 96.66c 52.16c 82.81c 73.67c Norm EPS (CNY) 1. 96.66c 52.16c 82.81c 73.67c Fully diluted norm EPS (CNY) 1. 96.66c 52.16c 82.81c 73.67c DPS (CNY).35.35.19.3.27 BVPS (CNY) 9.34 8.93 9.31 9.49 1.3 Life/LT EVPS (CNY) 12.8 13.29 15.63 17.36 2.33 Life/LT VNBPS (CNY).71.78.81.84.89 Value of non-life bus. PS (CNY)..... Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 16
Nomura China Pacific Insurance February 7, 213 Well capitalized, still faster-than-peers growth for life, and now our view that non-life will likely trend better than life in 213 keep CPIC as our preferred play for those seeking exposure to the China insurance space Fig. 27: CPIC quarterly P&L P&L 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q11 y-y 1Q12 y-y Comments Premiums earned 3,764 44,57 36,333 33,662 9 6 Generally, we continue to see pressure for the bancassurance channel. However, we expect CPIC's agency channel to continue to report better than peers growth as it continues to benefit from the recent reform. Net Investment Income 4,264 4,627 6,147 5,832 (48) (15) Fair value gains/(losses) 145 28 49 (11) na na Foreign exchange gains/(losses) (12) (1) 3 4 (8) (96) Other income 399 266 273 28 77 37 Operating income 35,56 49,49 42,85 39,767 (3) 4 Surrenders (2,528) (3,22) (2,973) (3,126) 15 96 We see continued rising pressure in surrenders as well given CPIC also has a rather high bancassurance reliance. Claims expense (1,415) (9,424) (1,423) (11,1) 23 15 Given our fundamental view that nonlife might perform better than life this year, we are expecting more moderate rise in claims rather than a significant increase. Increase in insurance contracts (9,31) (22,967) (14,37) (12,256) (28) (3) reserve Policyholder dividends (1,11) (1,28) (755) (1,72) 22 Reinsurance expenses (8) (1) (6) (1) 33 1 Business tax and surcharges (871) (1,2) (1,54) (994) (5) 1 Underwriting and policy acquisition (2,887) (4,539) (3,571) (3,359) 7 22 costs Operating and administrative (4,69) (4,16) (4,529) (4,694) 27 24 expenses Interest expenses (277) (59) (563) (561) 198 286 Impairment losses (874) (1,373) (1,23) (1,599) 65 1,35 Other operating expenses (1,173) (42) (789) (66) 88 (54) Operating expenses (34,35) (48,598) (4,236) (39,287) 7 12 Operating profit 1,525 892 2,569 48 (67) (79) Non-operating items 88 (5) 25 2 78 15 PBT 1,613 887 2,594 482 (65) (79) Income tax (32) (233) (58) 14 (68) (69) Minority interest (16) (2) (28) 1 (71) (96) Net profit attributed to shareholders Source: Company data, Nomura research (CNYmn) (%) 1,295 652 1,986 497 (65) (81) It is interesting to highlight that the y-y comparison for 1Q13 might already be better for CPIC given the relative low base in 1Q12. 17
Nomura China Pacific Insurance February 7, 213 Fig. 28: CPIC NBV breakdown (CNYmn, except %) 1H11 2H11 FY11 1H12 1H11 2H11 FY11 1H12 Comments y-y change (%) Agent 6,523 4,616 11,139 7,524 32 11 23 15 Single 389 377 766 48 4 19 11 5 First Year Regular 6,134 4,239 1,373 7,116 34 11 24 16 Agency premium growth remains healthy as the value focus continues to be communicated from HQ to the branch level and frontline staff are incentivised to sell longer term products. Bancassurance 2,718 9,794 3,512 12,582 (18) (38) (26) (39) Single 16,837 7,828 24,665 1,257 (18) (35) (24) (39) Bancassurance will still be under pressure this year. First Year Regular 3,881 1,966 5,847 2,325 (17) (48) (31) (4) Others 3,112 2,173 5,285 4,836 72 (1) 32 55 Single 3,15 2,166 5,271 4,88 72 (1) 32 55 First Year Regular 7 7 14 28 6 (3) 27 3 New Business Premium 3,353 16,583 46,936 24,942 (5) (25) (13) (18) New Business Value 3,83 2,884 6,714 4,61 18 1 1 6 CPIC will likely continue to outpace its peers in terms of NBV growth as it continues to benefit from its reform, which is more value focused. y-y change (pp) New Business Margin (%) 12.6 17.4 14.3 16.3 2.5 4.4 3. 3.7 Source: Company data, Nomura research Valuation methodology Our target price of HKD32 is premised on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. For the life business, our target NB multiple of 7.5x is derived by a risk discount rate (RDR) of 11.5%, according to CPIC s EV assumptions. We use our explicit VoNB growth forecasts for FY12-14F, and assume 7% NBV growth for the next 9 years (FY15-23F). We apply the target NB multiple to the FY14F new business value and then add the FY13F embedded value. We value CPIC s P&C business by applying 1x P/E to its FY12F NPAT and add the free capital available. Investment risks Key upside risks: 1) sales of bancassurance products supporting higher VoNB growth; and 2) stronger-than-expected returns from the A-share market, which would likely boost general sentiment toward insurers. Key downside risks: 1) sales of bancassurance products being unable to support higher VoNB growth; and 2) poor returns from the A-share market, which would likely hurt general sentiment toward insurers. 18
China Life Insurance 2628.HK 2628 HK INSURANCE EQUITY RESEARCH Downgrading to Neutral on valuation Near-term upside from A-shares rather than fundamentals February 7, 213 Rating Down from Buy Target price Remains Closing price January 31, 213 Neutral HKD 27. HKD 26. Potential upside +3.8% Structural headwinds to limit upside near term We downgrade China Life to Neutral on a valuation basis as we still see structural headwinds for the life insurance industry which are likely to limit further upside from current levels. However, the insurer s exposure to A- shares in its investment portfolio together with investor expectations of incremental net asset growth for insurers on the recent A-share rally keeps us from taking a more negative view on the share price. We base this on our impression that most of the investors that we have met in the past couple of months understand that the fundamentals remain weak for life insurers but maintain some exposure to life insurers for Beta purposes. Hence, we believe there are likely still marginal buyers (albeit they would be, in our view, very much tied to market sentiment) for insurers shares, and China Life given its scale and market capitalization will likely continue to be welcomed by these marginal buyers in the near term. Fundamental improvements more likely in 214F than 213F While we continue to applaud the steps taken by management to improve shareholder returns, we believe the current low-growth period for the life insurance industry is likely to stretch out for at least one more year. While we see possibility for fundamentals to pick up in 214F, from a share price point of view, we expect the genuine re-rating supported by fundamentals to happen in 215F. 31 Dec FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Currency (CNY) Actual Old New Old New Old New Net premium (mn) 318,2 33,742 33,742 318,34 318,34 336,836 336,836 Reported net profit (mn) 18,331 12,532 12,532 25,11 25,11 3,62 3,62 Normalised net profit (mn) 18,331 12,532 12,532 25,11 25,11 3,62 3,62 FD normalised EPS 64.85c 44.34c 44.34c 88.84c 88.84c 1.8 1.8 FD norm. EPS growth (%) -45.5-31.6-31.6 1.4 1.4 21.9 21.9 FD normalised P/E (x) 33.2 N/A 47.4 N/A 23.5 N/A 19.2 Price/EV (x) 2. N/A 1.8 N/A 1.5 N/A 1.4 Price/implied VNB (x) 15. N/A 12.7 N/A 1. N/A 7.2 Dividend yield (%) 1.1 N/A.7 N/A 1.5 N/A 1.8 ROE (%) 9.2 6.5 6.5 12.3 12.3 13.9 13.9 ROA (%) 1.2.8.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart. Anchor themes Following the recent re-rating of the sector on the back of the A- share rally, we believe expectations have ran ahead of fundamentals. We see downside risk for the life sector and recommend investors to switch to PICC P&C. Nomura vs consensus Our FY13F earnings forecast is 14% lower than consensus, as we expect the tighter liquidity environment and changes in distribution channels to affect the new business growth more than the market. Research analysts China Insurance David Chung - NIHK david.m.chung@nomura.com +852 2252 621 Lucy Feng - NIHK lucy.feng@nomura.com +852 2252 2165 Ben Huang - NIHK ben.huang@nomura.com +852 2252 6242 See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-us analysts.
Nomura China Life Insurance February 7, 213 Key data on China Life Insurance Profit and Loss (CNYmn) Year-end 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Gross premiums 318,229 318,252 33,964 318,536 337,82 Government charges Reinsurance ceded -177-232 -222-232 -246 Net written premium 318,52 318,2 33,742 318,34 336,836 Change in unearned premium reserves 36 256 245 256 271 Net earned premium 318,88 318,276 33,987 318,56 337,17 Claims and benefit payments -199,655-181,579-168,914-161,49-158,991 Change in reserves Commission and DAC expenses Other expenses -146,946-171,2-188,476-211,64-234,273 Underwriting surplus -28,513-34,323-53,44-54,128-56,158 Recurrent investment income 48,872 6,722 71,12 79,146 87,467 Realised and unrealised gains 16,121-1,871-7,686 Investment income 64,993 49,851 63,416 79,146 87,467 Other income Employee share expense Operating profit 36,48 15,528 1,13 25,17 31,39 Amortisation Other non-operating income 2,757 2,772 2,787 2,82 2,817 Associates and JCEs 1,771 2,213 2,545 2,927 3,366 Pre-tax profit 41,8 2,513 15,345 3,746 37,492 Income tax -7,197-2,22-2,693-5,396-6,58 Net profit after tax 33,811 18,491 12,652 25,35 3,912 Minority interests -185-16 -12-24 -292 Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT 33,626 18,331 12,532 25,11 3,62 Extraordinary items Reported NPAT 33,626 18,331 12,532 25,11 3,62 Dividends -11,36-6,51-4,444-8,95-1,859 Transfer to retained earnings 22,32 11,83 8,88 16,25 19,761 Relative performance chart (one year) Source: ThomsonReuters, Nomura research (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute (HKD) 2.8 13.5 13.8 Absolute (USD) 2.7 13.4 13.8 Relative to index -1.4 2.3 2. Market cap (USDmn) 94,738. Estimated free float (%) 95.3 52-week range (HKD) 27.35/17 3-mth avg daily turnover (USDmn) 99.84 Major shareholders (%) CLIC 68.4 HKSCC 25.7 Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research Notes Valuation and ratio analysis Reported P/E (x) 18.9 33.2 47.4 23.5 19.2 Normalised P/E (x) 18.9 33.2 47.4 23.5 19.2 FD normalised P/E (x) 18.9 33.2 47.4 23.5 19.2 FD normalised P/E at price target (x) 19.6 34.5 49.2 24.5 2. Dividend yield (%) 1.8 1.1.7 1.5 1.8 Price/book (x) 3. 3.1 3. 2.8 2.6 Investment return (%) 5.18 3.52 4. 4.48 4.48 Recurrent investment return (%) 3.9 4.29 4.49 4.48 4.48 Non-recurrent return/invt. return (%) 24.8-21.8-12.1.. Price/EV (x) 2.1 2. 1.8 1.5 1.4 Price/implied VNB (x) 16.4 15. 12.7 1. 7.2 Loss ratio (%) Combined ratio (%) Effective tax rate (%) 17.6 9.9 17.6 17.6 17.6 Dividend payout (%) 33.6 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.5 ROE (%) 16. 9.2 6.5 12.3 13.9 ROA (%) 2.55 1.22.75 1.37 1.51 ROR (%) 9.3 4.9 3.4 6.6 7.4 Growth (%) Life premiums 15.8 -.3-5.1 4.7 5.7 Non life premiums 6.5 5.5 6.3 7.1 7.9 Net profit 2.3-45.5-31.6 1.4 21.9 Normalised EPS 2.3-45.5-31.6 1.4 21.9 Normalised FDEPS 2.3-45.5-31.6 1.4 21.9 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 2
Nomura China Life Insurance February 7, 213 Balance Sheet (CNYmn) As at 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Cash and deposits 489,439 576,778 645,847 716,633 788,61 Bonds 68,192 666,684 746,519 828,339 911,526 Equities 195,99 18,61 22,238 224,44 246,94 Unit trusts Loans and mortgages Foreign investments Real estate Other investments 42,75 7,897 79,387 88,88 96,934 Total investments 1,336,245 1,494,969 1,673,99 1,857,462 2,44, Deferred acquisition costs Prepaid and unearned prem. reserves Debtors and prepayments Fixed assets Goodwill Separate account assets Other assets 74,334 88,938 65,353 76,279 85,241 Total assets 1,41,579 1,583,97 1,739,343 1,933,742 2,129,242 Insurance reserves 1,12,2 1,193,675 1,362,791 1,524,8 1,683,357 Catastrophe reserves Insurance protection fund 194 146 139 146 155 Deposit and investment contracts 7,171 69,797 67,626 66,351 65,891 Separate account liabilities Provision for Unearned Premiums 5,935 5,698 6,58 6,488 6,998 Provision for Outstanding Claims Interest bearing liabilities Other liabilities 111,64 121,23 15,244 122,49 141,595 Total liabilities 1,2,14 1,39,519 1,541,859 1,719,475 1,897,995 Minority interest 1,765 1,858 1,858 1,858 1,858 Common stock 28,265 28,265 28,265 28,265 28,265 Preferred stock Retained earnings 18,445 163,265 167,361 184,144 21,123 Proposed dividends Other equity Shareholders' equity 28,71 191,53 195,626 212,49 229,388 Total liabilities and equity 1,41,579 1,583,97 1,739,343 1,933,742 2,129,242 Notes Balance sheet ratios (%) Life solvency margin 212. 17.1 173.4 192.5 215.7 Non-life solvency margin Net premiums/equity 152.4 166.2 155.4 15. 147. Tech. reserves/total premiums 318.1 375.1 448.3 478.5 499.4 Investment portfolio mix (%) Cash and deposits 36.6 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.6 Bonds 45.5 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.6 Equities 14.7 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 Unit trusts..... Loans and mortgages..... Foreign investments..... Real estate..... Other investments 3.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Per share Reported EPS (CNY) 1.19 64.85c 44.34c 88.84c 1.8 Norm EPS (CNY) 1.19 64.85c 44.34c 88.84c 1.8 Fully diluted norm EPS (CNY) 1.19 64.85c 44.34c 88.84c 1.8 DPS (CNY).4.23.16.32.38 BVPS (CNY) 7.38 6.78 6.92 7.51 8.12 Life/LT EVPS (CNY) 1.55 1.36 11.82 13.5 15.22 Life/LT VNBPS (CNY).7.71.72.74.78 Value of non-life bus. PS (CNY)..... Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 21
Nomura China Life Insurance February 7, 213 Pressure from bancassurance; reform will take time Fig. 29: China Life quarterly P&L P&L 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q11 y-y 1Q12 y-y Comments (CNYmn) (%) Premiums earned 55,58 112,737 72,2 76,274 (1) (8) Seasonally, while 4Q is usually a slower quarter, it appears that China Life were more aggressive in December 212 leading to net premium yoy growth of 4%. However, this also meant that the January 213 figure is likely to be under pressure. Generally, we continue to see pressure for the bancassurance channel. Net Investment Income 13,924 19,16 2,396 19,65 (33) 11 Fair value gains/(losses) 451 (433) 28 (931) 1,189 na We expect more realised gains and losses due to the rising maturity payments in 213. Foreign exchange (14) (24) 7 15 (49) (81) gains/(losses) Other income 783 629 839 821 4 4 Operating income 7,562 131,925 93,335 95,244 (15) (6) Surrenders (8,878) (9,916) (8,992) (11,43) 37 21 We see continued rising pressure in surrenders. Claims expense (11,897) (31,139) (18,298) (13,87) (12) 11 Increase in insurance (25,897) (6,496) (39,573) (48,18) (16) (19) contracts reserve Policyholder dividends 33 (1,433) (1,62) 1,398 na (56) Business tax and (39) (339) (291) (296) (93) 4 surcharges Underwriting and policy (6,365) (7,84) (6,729) (6,13) (9) (9) acquisition costs Operating and (8,29) (4,853) (5,35) (5,24) 3 6 administrative expenses Impairment losses (6,943) (7,686) (7,434) (13,94) 794 391 While we still expect some pressure on impairment losses for 4Q12, we do expect this to moderate in 213 as the A share market stabilises. Other operating expenses (1,44) (1,352) (1,494) (1,851) 73 57 Operating expenses (69,365) (125,54) (89,178) (98,855) (4) (4) Operating profit 1,197 6,871 4,157 (3,611) (89) (28) Non-operating items (21) 1 (17) (7) 2 (8) PBT 1,176 6,872 4,14 (3,618) (89) (28) Income tax 44 (1,194) (77) 1,467 na (2) Minority interest (2) (53) (53) (56) (95) 4 Net profit attributed to shareholders 1,614 5,625 4,1 (2,27) (81) (29) While some investors are looking for a better y-y comparison, it would appear that the better comparison would probably be more on a sequential q-q basis rather than y-y as 1Q12 was actually not such bad a quarter. Source: Company data, Nomura research 22
Nomura China Life Insurance February 7, 213 Fig. 3: China Life NBV breakdown (CNYmn, except %) 1H11 2H11 FY11 1H12 1H11 2H11 FY11 1H12 Comments y-y change (%) Agent 22,787 1,26 33,47 19,828 22 (18) 6 (13) Single 18 12 3 141 (31) (55) (43) (22) First Year Regular 22,67 1,14 32,747 19,687 22 (18) 6 (13) Other than product push over certain months which would boost volume for that month, we are still expecting a largely challenging environment for agency premium to grow. The protection type products probably still account for a relatively small portion of the total at this stage. Bancassurance 79,199 33,45 112,649 52,51 (6) (42) (21) (34) We see continued pressure for the bancassurance channel generally and the retention for maturity is likely relatively low. Single 69,832 27,467 97,299 44,789 (5) (41) (19) (36) First Year Regular 9,367 5,983 15,35 7,712 (1) (45) (28) (18) Others 784 1,241 2,25 872 (2) 9 (5) 11 Single 783 1,235 2,18 871 (2) 9 (5) 11 First Year Regular 1 6 7 1 (33) (3) New Business Premium 12,77 44,951 147,721 73,21 (1) (37) (16) (29) New Business Value 12,186 8,13 2,199 12,494 6 (3) 2 3 We are expecting NBV growth to be flattish or similar to that of 1H12. New Business Margin (%) Source: Company data, Nomura research y-y change (pp) 11.9 17.8 13.7 17.1.7 6.2 2.4 5.2 The focus on volume will likely mean we may not see as much margin expansion as compared to 1H12/2H11 for 2H12/1H13. Valuation methodology Our target price of HKD27 is premised on a target new business (NB) multiple of 1.x, which we derive by applying a risk discount rate (RDR) of 11% according to China Life s EV assumptions. We use our explicit VoNB growth forecasts for FY12-14F and assume 6% NBV growth for the next 15 years. Our valuation is on a 15-year basis and assumes no perpetuity growth, an approach similar to standard actuarial practice, as long-term growth is deemed too uncertain and therefore has close to zero value. We assume a higher NB multiple for China Life relative to peers because we believe China Life s network reach (especially in the more rural areas) will allow it to secure higher growth rates as the life insurance markets continue to mature in China. We apply the target NB multiple to China Life s FY14F new business value and add FY13F embedded value. Investment risks Key upside risks include: 1) stronger-than-expected returns from the A-share market; and 2) earlier-than-expected pick-up in momentum in life insurance industry. Key downside risks include: 1) poor returns from the A-share market affecting sentiment to insurers in general; and 2) intense competition leading to a continued squeeze in NB margins for life insurers, especially China Life, which hopes to recapture market share. 23
Ping An Insurance Group 2318.HK 2318 HK INSURANCE EQUITY RESEARCH Leverage to A-share due to low capital Potential equity raising and growth to drag on further rerating February 7, 213 Rating Remains Target price Remains Closing price January 31, 213 Neutral HKD 67. HKD 69.55 Potential downside -3.7% Key overhang removed may boost re-rating near term In a rather dramatic twist of tale, the Chinese insurance regulator announced on 1 Feb (deadline given in the previous announcement) that it has approved HSBC s remaining stake sale (~13%) of Ping An to CPG. While we believe this helps remove a key overhang for Ping An s share price near term and we expect the share price to react positively, we reiterate our Neutral rating given our view that 213 will be a difficult year for life insurers and there may be room for disappointment later in the year as the actual growth may fail to justify current valuation. Higher exposure to richer regions dragging on growth Operationally, while we continue to believe Ping An has one of the best-inclass agency forces in China, we also think that the lack of wealth effect over the past few years has dragged its growth relative to peers. Ping An was clearly early to foresee the issues with bancassurance and has relied more on its agents for growth. However, the fact that Ping An is more leveraged to the richer 1 st and 2 nd -tier cities where the wealth increment appears to have been relatively slow over the past few years has also dragged Ping An s growth, in our view. Additionally, it is not so clear the role that the agents play in the current integrated model with Ping An Bank and what incentives the agents have in sharing their customer information. Low capital means more leverage to A-share, but also placement risk We believe there may be a possibility for Ping An to issue new shares to replenish capital if its valuation continues to re-rate. Thus, we think Ping An is fairly valued at this stage withstanding a further A-share rally. Anchor themes Following the recent re-rating of the sector on the back of the A- share rally, we believe expectations have run ahead of fundamentals. We see downside risk for the life sector and recommend investors to switch to PICC P&C. Nomura vs consensus Our FY13F earnings forecast is 1% lower than consensus. Research analysts China Insurance David Chung - NIHK david.m.chung@nomura.com +852 2252 621 Lucy Feng - NIHK lucy.feng@nomura.com +852 2252 2165 Ben Huang - NIHK ben.huang@nomura.com +852 2252 6242 31 Dec FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Currency (CNY) Actual Old New Old New Old New Net premium (mn) 196,832 212,731 212,731 24,42 24,42 27,781 27,781 Reported net profit (mn) 19,475 21,538 21,538 28,113 28,113 31,433 31,433 Normalised net profit (mn) 19,475 21,538 21,538 28,113 28,113 31,433 31,433 FD normalised EPS 2.5 2.72 2.72 3.55 3.55 3.97 3.97 FD norm. EPS growth (%) 8.7 8.7 8.7 3.5 3.5 11.8 11.8 FD normalised P/E (x) 22.5 N/A 2.6 N/A 15.7 N/A 14. Price/EV (x) 1.9 N/A 1.6 N/A 1.3 N/A 1.1 Price/implied VNB (x) 12.3 N/A 9.9 N/A 6. N/A 2.1 Dividend yield (%).7 N/A.8 N/A 1. N/A 1.1 ROE (%) 16. 15.1 15.1 16.9 16.9 16.4 16.4 ROA (%) 1.1.9.9 1. 1. 1. 1. Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart. See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-us analysts.
Nomura Ping An Insurance Group February 7, 213 Key data on Ping An Insurance Group Profit and Loss (CNYmn) Year-end 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Gross premiums 159,384 27,82 225,436 255,189 287,959 Government charges Reinsurance ceded -8,181-1,97-12,76-14,77-17,178 Net written premium 151,23 196,832 212,731 24,42 27,781 Change in unearned premium reserves -1,79-1,17-11,777-13,69-15,921 Net earned premium 141,124 186,662 2,953 226,73 254,86 Claims and benefit payments -115,77-145,764-162,942-182,34-24,154 Change in reserves Commission and DAC expenses -69-1,5-214 -214-214 Other expenses -57,781-95,44-91,889-14,562-119,24 Underwriting surplus -32,343-55,556-54,91-6,35-68,711 Recurrent investment income 25,972 34,285 38,351 4,219 42,451 Realised and unrealised gains Investment income 25,972 34,285 38,351 4,219 42,451 Other income 28,718 51,297 48,946 63,475 74,723 Employee share expense Operating profit 22,347 3,26 33,26 43,344 48,463 Amortisation Other non-operating income Associates and JCEs Pre-tax profit 22,347 3,26 33,26 43,344 48,463 Income tax -4,49-7,444-8,232-1,746-12,15 Net profit after tax 17,938 22,582 24,974 32,598 36,448 Minority interests -627-3,17-3,436-4,485-5,15 Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT 17,311 19,475 21,538 28,113 31,433 Extraordinary items Reported NPAT 17,311 19,475 21,538 28,113 31,433 Dividends -4,24-3,166-3,442-4,492-5,23 Transfer to retained earnings 13,17 16,39 18,96 23,621 26,41 Relative performance chart (one year) Source: ThomsonReuters, Nomura research (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute (HKD) 7.2 13.3 13.3 Absolute (USD) 7.1 13.2 13.3 Relative to index 3. 2. 1.5 Market cap (USDmn) 65,856. Estimated free float (%) 42.5 52-week range (HKD) 71.6/53 3-mth avg daily turnover (USDmn) 17.92 Major shareholders (%) HSBC Insurance 8.1 HSBC 8. Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research Notes Valuation and ratio analysis Reported P/E (x) 25. 22.5 2.6 15.7 14. Normalised P/E (x) 25. 22.5 2.6 15.7 14. FD normalised P/E (x) 25. 22.5 2.6 15.7 14. FD normalised P/E at price target (x) 24.1 21.6 19.8 15.1 13.5 Dividend yield (%) 1..7.8 1. 1.1 Price/book (x) 4. 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.2 Investment return (%) 2.84 2.33 1.94 1.93 1.92 Recurrent investment return (%) 2.84 2.33 1.94 1.93 1.92 Non-recurrent return/invt. return (%)..... Price/EV (x) 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 Price/implied VNB (x) 15.9 12.3 9.9 6. 2.1 Loss ratio (%) Combined ratio (%) Effective tax rate (%) 19.7 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 Dividend payout (%) 24.3 16.3 16. 16. 16. ROE (%) 17.6 16. 15.1 16.9 16.4 ROA (%) 1.64 1.13.87.99.97 ROR (%) 12.1 1. 9.4 11.1 11.1 Growth (%) Life premiums 31.9 28.1 3.2 1.7 9.9 Non life premiums 61.2 33.9 16.4 16.5 16.5 Net profit 24.7 12.5 1.6 3.5 11.8 Normalised EPS 21.8 8.7 8.7 3.5 11.8 Normalised FDEPS 21.8 8.7 8.7 3.5 11.8 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 25
Nomura Ping An Insurance Group February 7, 213 Balance Sheet (CNYmn) As at 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Cash and deposits 291,927 53,717 529,32 56,135 595,771 Bonds 62,593 1,124,34 1,181,412 1,25,23 1,329,77 Equities 99,64 222,385 233,681 247,293 263,26 Unit trusts Loans and mortgages Foreign investments Real estate Other investments 23,827 8,853 84,96 89,99 95,629 Total investments 1,17,412 1,931,259 2,29,355 2,147,567 2,284,196 Deferred acquisition costs Prepaid and unearned prem. reserves Debtors and prepayments Fixed assets Goodwill Separate account assets Other assets 154,215 354,165 618,195 872,487 1,17,18 Total assets 1,171,627 2,285,424 2,647,549 3,2,54 3,454,214 Insurance reserves 413,193 487,275 54,117 62,75 676,817 Catastrophe reserves Insurance protection fund Deposit and investment contracts 185,619 228,192 234,35 242,585 251,331 Separate account liabilities 4,284 33,46 36,981 41,159 46,13 Provision for Unearned Premiums 3,842 42,288 54,243 68,124 84,251 Provision for Outstanding Claims Interest bearing liabilities 322,65 1,132,21 1,362,561 1,585,418 1,848,388 Other liabilities 62,156 19,657 219,167 254,92 295,266 Total liabilities 1,54,744 2,114,82 2,447,14 2,794,937 3,22,156 Minority interest 4,853 4,475 46,919 46,919 46,919 Common stock 7,644 7,916 7,916 7,916 7,916 Preferred stock Retained earnings 28,69 43,546 61,972 86,643 113,584 Proposed dividends Other equity 75,777 79,45 83,639 83,639 83,639 Shareholders' equity 112,3 13,867 153,527 178,198 25,139 Total liabilities and equity 1,171,627 2,285,424 2,647,549 3,2,54 3,454,214 Notes Balance sheet ratios (%) Life solvency margin 18.2 156.1... Non-life solvency margin Net premiums/equity 126. 142.6 13.9 127.2 124.2 Tech. reserves/total premiums 259.2 234.5 239.6 236.2 235. Investment portfolio mix (%) Cash and deposits 28.7 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 Bonds 59.2 58.2 58.2 58.2 58.2 Equities 9.7 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 Unit trusts..... Loans and mortgages..... Foreign investments..... Real estate..... Other investments 2.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Per share Reported EPS (CNY) 2.3 2.5 2.72 3.55 3.97 Norm EPS (CNY) 2.3 2.5 2.72 3.55 3.97 Fully diluted norm EPS (CNY) 2.3 2.5 2.72 3.55 3.97 DPS (CNY).55.4.43.57.63 BVPS (CNY) 14.66 16.53 19.39 22.51 25.91 Life/LT EVPS (CNY) 26.29 29.77 36.9 43.17 51.19 Life/LT VNBPS (CNY) 2.6 2.16 2.3 2.1 2.24 Value of non-life bus. PS (CNY)..... Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 26
Nomura Ping An Insurance Group February 7, 213 Diversified model helps smooth out earning, though life recovery may hinge on return of the wealth effect Fig. 31: Ping An quarterly P&L P&L 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q11 y-y 1Q12 y-y Comments (CNYmn) (%) Premiums earned 43,636 67,87 47,71 47,217 23 9 We expect the continued pressure on bancassurance to impact Ping An less than peers given their traditional reliance on the agency channel. However, Ping An appears to have difficulty in growing average case size over the last couple of years, which we believe is attributable to its exposure to the more wealthy areas and the resultant wealth effect. Given this backdrop, we would probably still wait for further signals before turning more positive on new premium growth at this stage. Net interest income - banking business Net fee and commission income - non-insurance business 7,695 8,68 8,258 8,796 376 415 We expect the continued stable operations of the banking business to help smooth out Ping An's overall earning. 2,11 2,184 2,238 2,273 34 33 Net Investment Income 9,198 6,161 12,87 6,19 (23) (19) Fair value gains/(losses) 317 95 6 (73) 5,183 na Foreign exchange gains/(losses) 23 93 143 16 na na Other income 67 1,493 2,54 2,486 (28) 67 Operating income 63,586 86,54 73,27 66,95 24 17 Surrenders (1,217) (1,26) (1,316) (1,374) 5 2 We expect surrenders to impact Ping An less given they are focused more on the agency channel which have longer term payment and generally have higher lever of penalty as a result. Claims expense (15,46) (18,32) (17,938) (18,97) 42 52 Increase in insurance contracts (12,839) (3,417) (13,45) (14,811) (17) (13) reserve Policyholder dividends (1,135) (2,384) (1,4) (937) 29 5 Reinsurance expenses (4) (3) (2) (67) (1) Underwriting and policy (4,568) (6,147) (4,991) (4,457) 11 7 acquisition costs Business tax and surcharges (2,25) (2,484) (2,594) (2,555) 71 64 Operating and administrative (13,451) (1,885) (12,26) (13,257) 56 61 expenses Finance costs (565) (355) (544) (65) 85 69 Impairment losses (1,488) (945) (4,545) (2,593) 77 23 While we still expect some pressure on impairment losses for 4Q12, we do expect this to moderate in 213 as the A share market stabilises. Other operating expenses (2,27) (2,958) (4,19) (3,533) 15 4 Operating expenses (55,193) (76,155) (62,826) (62,221) 22 14 Operating profit 8,393 1,349 1,21 4,684 45 43 Non-operating items 58 (9) (2) 16 176 na PBT 8,451 1,34 1,181 4,7 45 42 Income tax (2,155) (2,537) (457) (794) 1 92 Minority interest (1,34) (1,739) (1,829) (1,78) 62 1,217 Net profit attributed to shareholders Source: Company data, Nomura research 4,956 6,64 7,895 2,126 9 4 While some investors are looking for a better y-y comparison, it would appear that the better comparison would probably be more on a sequential q-q basis rather than y-y as 1Q12 was actually not such bad a quarter. 27
Nomura Ping An Insurance Group February 7, 213 Fig. 32: Ping An NBV breakdown (CNYmn, except %) 1H11 2H11 FY11 1H12 1H11 2H11 FY11 1H12 Comments y-y change (%) Agent 29,855 15,978 45,833 23,291 15 (5) 7 (22) Single 5,894 437 6,331 429 435 (44) 236 (93) First Year Regular 22,963 14,614 37,577 21,822 (4) (3) (3) (5) We are expecting some recovery from the agency channel though the overall environment still remains challenging. Short term accident and health premiums 998 927 1,925 1,4 () 1 4 Bancassurance 12,479 4,384 16,863 6,44 (21) (57) (36) (52) Ping An is generally less affected by the bancassurance channel. Single 11,743 3,391 15,134 4,716 (23) (65) (39) (6) First Year Regular 735 992 1,727 1,327 11 5 3 81 Short term accident and health premiums 1 1 2 1 Others 4,276 3,945 8,221 4,792 23 7 15 12 Single 1,196 1,629 2,825 1,155 8 (2) 2 (3) First Year Regular 77 12 197 123 148 43 71 6 Short term accident and health premiums 3,3 2,196 5,199 3,514 29 13 22 17 New Business Premium 46,61 24,37 7,917 34,127 3 (21) (7) (27) We are expecting better 2H12 growth relative to 1H12 though we are uncertain whether it would take FY12 into positive territory in terms of NBV growth. Nonetheless, we believe a few pct difference is probably only symbolic anyway. The key is that Ping An is more leveraged to the richer 1st/2nd tier cities and if the wealth effect recovers with a rebound in the economy then Ping An will probably outgrow its peers. New Business Value 1,19 6,83 16,822 9,16 1 7 8 (9) y-y change (pp) New Business Margin (%) 21.5 28. 23.7 26.8 1.4 7.2 3.3 5.3 Source: Company data, Nomura research Valuation methodology Our target price of HKD67 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. For the life business, our target New Business (NB) multiple of 5.9x is derived by a risk discount rate (RDR) of 11%, based on Ping An s EV assumptions. We use our explicit VoNB growth forecasts for FY12-14F, and assume % NBV growth for the next 9 years (FY15-23F). We apply the target new business (NB) multiple to the FY14F new business value and then add FY13F embedded value. We value Ping An s P&C business by applying 8x P/E to its FY12F NPAT and securities and trust operations by applying 1x P/E to their FY12F NPAT respectively. We have incorporated PAB into our valuation of Ping An by applying our banking team s target P/BV multiple of.9x to our FY12F BV forecast. Investment risks Key downside risks include poorer-than-expected execution of the financial conglomerate model, integration with PAB and returns from the A-share market, which would affect sentiment to insurers in general, in our view. Key upside risks are betterand earlier-than-expected synergies from the integration of PAB. 28
AIA 1299.HK 1299 HK INSURANCE EQUITY RESEARCH The forgotten quality play Quality, well capitalised, relative valuation deserve a revisit February 7, 213 Rating Remains Target price Increased from 33. Closing price January 31, 213 Buy HKD 36. HKD 3.85 Potential upside +16.7% Switching out from China life insurers; reiterate Buy on AIA We think now is an appropriate time for investors to consider switching out of their China life insurers into AIA given AIA is still delivering well over 2% y-y NBV growth with strong management execution. AIA has been a relative underperformer YTD and over the past few months, which we believe can be partially attributable to the AIG placement back on 17 December 212 which perhaps took a good tranche of the marginal buyers given it was 13.69% of the outstanding share capital. AIA is due to release results by late February, and historically it has a tendency to outperform after results, while on the other hand, we are expecting mediocre results for China insurers at best when they announce around middle to late March. Rolling over to FY13F EV with revised TP of HKD36 Our TP is revised up to HKD36 (from HKD33) as we roll over our target PEV, based on FY13F EV. The implied target PEV and NB multiples are now 1.8x and 13.3x, respectively. Meanwhile, we also raise our earnings forecasts slightly, mainly due to our higher investment yield assumptions. Anchor themes Following the recent re-rating of the sector on the back of the A- share rally, we believe expectations have run ahead of fundamentals. We see downside risk for the life sector and recommend investors to switch to PICC P&C. Nomura vs consensus Our FY13F earnings forecast is 2% higher than consensus. Research analysts China Insurance David Chung - NIHK david.m.chung@nomura.com +852 2252 621 Lucy Feng - NIHK lucy.feng@nomura.com +852 2252 2165 Ben Huang - NIHK ben.huang@nomura.com +852 2252 6242 3 Nov FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Currency (USD) Actual Old New Old New Old New Net premium (mn) 14,442 16,85 16,236 17,83 18,239 19,777 2,331 Reported net profit (mn) 1,6 2,485 2,614 2,732 2,842 2,998 3,215 Normalised net profit (mn) 1,6 2,485 2,614 2,732 2,842 2,998 3,215 FD normalised EPS 13.28c 2.63c 21.7c 22.68c 23.6c 24.89c 26.7c FD norm. EPS growth (%) -4.8 55.3 63.4 9.9 8.7 9.7 13.1 FD normalised P/E (x) 29.8 N/A 18.3 N/A 16.8 N/A 14.9 Price/EV (x) 1.8 N/A 1.6 N/A 1.4 N/A 1.3 Price/implied VNB (x) 22.3 N/A 15.6 N/A 1.4 N/A 6.3 Dividend yield (%) 1.1 N/A 1.2 N/A 1.3 N/A 1.5 ROE (%) 7.8 11.1 11.5 11. 11.2 1.9 11.3 ROA (%) 1.4 2.1 2.1 2. 2.1 2. 2.1 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart. See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-us analysts.
Nomura AIA February 7, 213 Key data on AIA Profit and Loss (USDmn) Year-end 3 Nov FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Gross premiums 13,13 14,442 16,236 18,239 2,331 Government charges Reinsurance ceded Net written premium 13,13 14,442 16,236 18,239 2,331 Change in unearned premium reserves -1,859-2,27-2,279-2,56-2,853 Net earned premium 11,154 12,415 13,957 15,679 17,477 Claims and benefit payments -9,841-1,966-12,349-13,887-15,466 Change in reserves Commission and DAC expenses -1,438-1,649-1,854-2,84-2,322 Other expenses -1,247-1,377-1,426-1,621-1,833 Underwriting surplus -1,372-1,577-1,672-1,913-2,143 Recurrent investment income 3,483 3,946 4,46 5,19 5,73 Realised and unrealised gains Investment income 3,483 3,946 4,46 5,19 5,73 Other income Employee share expense Operating profit 2,111 2,369 2,734 3,15 3,56 Amortisation Other non-operating income 1,447-213 471 377 377 Associates and JCEs -9 12 18 22 26 Pre-tax profit 3,549 2,168 3,223 3,54 3,962 Income tax -839-56 -61-654 -739 Net profit after tax 2,71 1,68 2,622 2,85 3,223 Minority interests -9-8 -8-8 -8 Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT 2,71 1,6 2,614 2,842 3,215 Extraordinary items Reported NPAT 2,71 1,6 2,614 2,842 3,215 Dividends -511-575 -625-77 Transfer to retained earnings 2,71 1,89 2,39 2,217 2,58 Relative performance chart (one year) Source: ThomsonReuters, Nomura research (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute (HKD) 2..5 19.1 Absolute (USD) 1.9.4 19.1 Relative to index -3.9-9.4-1.2 Market cap (USDmn) 47,899.6 Estimated free float (%) 67.1 52-week range (HKD) 31.9/24.5 3-mth avg daily turnover (USDmn) 246.64 Major shareholders (%) AIG 18.6 Citigroup 9. Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research Notes Valuation and ratio analysis Reported P/E (x) 17.7 29.8 18.3 16.8 14.9 Normalised P/E (x) 17.7 29.8 18.3 16.8 14.9 FD normalised P/E (x) 17.7 29.8 18.3 16.8 14.9 FD normalised P/E at price target (x) 2.6 34.8 21.3 19.6 17.3 Dividend yield (%) na 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 Price/book (x) 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 Investment return (%) 4.29 4.36 4.46 4.46 4.47 Recurrent investment return (%) 4.29 4.36 4.46 4.46 4.47 Non-recurrent return/invt. return (%)..... Price/EV (x) 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 Price/implied VNB (x) 34.9 22.3 15.6 1.4 6.3 Loss ratio (%) Combined ratio (%) Effective tax rate (%) 23.6 25.8 18.7 18.7 18.7 Dividend payout (%). 31.9 22. 22. 22. ROE (%) 15.7 7.8 11.5 11.2 11.3 ROA (%) 2.72 1.44 2.15 2.8 2.1 ROR (%) 19.4 1.3 15.1 14.6 14.7 Growth (%) Life premiums 11.9 11. 12.4 12.3 11.5 Non life premiums na na na na na Net profit 54. -4.8 63.4 8.7 13.1 Normalised EPS 53.4-4.8 63.4 8.7 13.1 Normalised FDEPS 53.4-4.8 63.4 8.7 13.1 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 3
Nomura AIA February 7, 213 Balance Sheet (USDmn) As at 3 Nov FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Cash and deposits 3,6 5,137 6,866 7,815 8,823 Bonds 58,839 62,372 83,368 94,887 17,12 Equities 8,792 7,165 9,577 1,9 12,35 Unit trusts Loans and mortgages 2,856 2,943 3,934 4,477 5,54 Foreign investments Real estate Other investments 15,35 14,637 1,461 1,663 1,877 Total investments 88,798 92,254 15,26 119,742 135,18 Deferred acquisition costs 12,6 12,818 13,128 13,435 13,633 Prepaid and unearned prem. reserves Debtors and prepayments Fixed assets Goodwill Separate account assets Other assets 7,61 9,389 1,377 11,321 12,481 Total assets 17,865 114,461 128,711 144,499 161,294 Insurance reserves 82,296 87,112 97,931 11,16 122,633 Catastrophe reserves Insurance protection fund Deposit and investment contracts 1,91 67 753 846 943 Separate account liabilities Provision for Unearned Premiums Provision for Outstanding Claims Interest bearing liabilities 597 559 628 76 787 Other liabilities 4,246 4,75 5,289 5,942 6,624 Total liabilities 88,23 93,46 14,62 117,51 13,986 Minority interest 8 12 12 12 12 Common stock 1,841 1,752 1,752 1,752 1,752 Preferred stock Retained earnings 13,924 15,354 17,393 19,61 22,118 Proposed dividends Other equity 3,79 4,27 4,862 5,525 6,335 Shareholders' equity 19,555 21,313 24,7 26,887 3,25 Total liabilities and equity 17,865 114,461 128,711 144,499 161,294 Notes Balance sheet ratios (%) Life solvency margin 336.7 31.9 442.1 441. 443.9 Non-life solvency margin Net premiums/equity 57. 58.3 58.1 58.3 57.9 Tech. reserves/total premiums 632.4 63.2 63.2 63.2 63.2 Investment portfolio mix (%) Cash and deposits 3.4 5.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 Bonds 66.3 67.6 79.2 79.2 79.2 Equities 9.9 7.8 9.1 9.1 9.1 Unit trusts..... Loans and mortgages 3.2 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 Foreign investments..... Real estate..... Other investments 17.2 15.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 Per share Reported EPS (USD) 22.43c 13.28c 21.7c 23.6c 26.7c Norm EPS (USD) 22.43c 13.28c 21.7c 23.6c 26.7c Fully diluted norm EPS (USD) 22.43c 13.28c 21.7c 23.6c 26.7c DPS (USD)..4.5.5.6 BVPS (USD) 1.62 1.77 1.99 2.23 2.51 Life/LT EVPS (USD) 2.5 2.26 2.49 2.79 3.12 Life/LT VNBPS (USD).5.8.9.11.13 Value of non-life bus. PS (USD)..... Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 31
Nomura AIA February 7, 213 Fig. 33: AIA Half-yearly results P&L 1H1 2H1 1H11 2H11 1H12 2H11 y-y 1H12 y-y (USDmn) (%) Net premiums and fee income 5,113 5,966 5,778 6,523 6,179 9 7 Investment return 2,53 5,187 3,12 (1,147) 2,711 na (13) Other operating revenue 37 38 54 6 63 58 17 Total revenue 7,23 11,191 8,952 5,436 8,953 (51) Net insurance and investment contract benefits (4,514) (7,566) (5,762) (3,31) (5,631) (56) (2) Commission and other acquisition expenses (66) (778) (77) (879) (88) 13 5 Operating expenses (525) (621) (617) (636) (634) 2 3 Restructuring and other non-operating costs (18) (24) (18) (32) (9) 33 (5) Investment management expenses (48) (58) (93) (132) (12) 128 na Finance costs (4) (5) (7) (5) (5) (29) Change in third-party interests in consolidated investment funds 12 (27) 1 28 23 na 2,2 Total expenses (5,757) (9,79) (7,266) (4,966) (7,184) (45) (1) Profit from operations 1,446 2,112 1,686 47 1,769 (78) 5 Share of profits of associates (8) (1) 5 7 11 na 12 PBT 1,438 2,111 1,691 477 1,78 (77) 5 Income tax (376) (463) (372) (188) (332) (59) (11) Minority interests (5) (4) (5) (3) (4) (25) (2) Net profit attributed to shareholders 1,57 1,644 1,314 286 1,444 (83) 1 Source: Company data, Nomura research Fig. 34: AIA Key quarterly figures 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q11 y-y 1Q12 y-y Comments (USDmn, except %) (%) Total weighted premium income (TWPI) 3,925 3,599 3,76 3,852 6 9 Annualized new premium (ANP) 784 543 644 696 23 6 New business value 288 232 28 3 41 27 Note that it appears 4Q11 was a somewhat high base to work on for 4Q12. While 1Q13 might be a volume story assuming flattish margins. (pp) New business margin (%) 36.7 42.1 43.5 42.6 5 7 On a sequential basis, it appears margin expansion might have stabilised. Source: Company data, Nomura research Valuation methodology Our revised TP of HKD36 (previously HKD33) implies a target PEV of 1.8x and NB multiple of 13.3x as we roll over the target PEV, based on FY13F EV. While we appreciate the geographically diversified business of AIA and its capital management ability, we do not place a premium or discount to our valuation for this since it is perhaps too difficult to quantify. We use a risk discount rate of 9.2%, derived from AIA s weighted average (by EV) discount rate of its markets in 21. We use our explicit VoNB growth forecasts for FY12-14F, an assumed 1-2% VNB growth over the next four years (FY15-18F), and then 3-5% for the four years thereafter (FY19-22F). The valuation is on a 1-year basis and assumes no perpetuity growth, an approach similar to standard actuarial practice, as the long-term growth is deemed too uncertain and therefore has close to zero value. Investment risks Key downside risks including USD strength, potential financial institution or European exposure through its corporate bond portfolio and AIG lockup expiry. Also, with exposure around the region, any potential negative newsflow could potentially create negative sentiment. 32
China Tai Ping Insurance 966.HK 966 HK INSURANCE EQUITY RESEARCH Maintain Buy on quality and valuation Reward will come for those willing to be patient February 7, 213 Rating Remains Target price Remains Closing price January 31, 213 Buy HKD 18. HKD 16.38 Potential upside +9.9% Uncertainty over pricing of group restructuring near-term overhang In our view, CTIH s near-term share price performance will continue to largely hinge on the group restructuring. Our calculation indicates there would be dilution to the minority public shareholders of around 16% if we assume TPL is valued at FY12F 1x PEV and TPI at 1x PE. We continue to stress that in return, the minority shareholders would have less shareholdings of CTIH but through CTIH, they would have increased shareholdings of the subsidiaries. In other words, they are in effect swapping the non-tpl and TPI businesses for more stakes of TPL and TPI. Looking at the mix of businesses, we believe this may not be such a bad deal for the minorities as long as TPL is not getting priced aggressively; in which case, the minorities can veto the proposal. Upcoming equity raising and management execution key pushbacks We do note, however, that once the group restructuring is completed, there will likely be equity raising for CTIH to replenish capital for further expansion under the new management. We think management might need to show to the market some execution abilities before investors are willing to value the shares at higher multiples again though we think this task is made harder by the current life insurance sector environment in China. Additionally, we think the stock specific issues mentioned above mean that CTIH will likely underperform the sector under a risk-on environment. We are, however, maintaining our Buy rating because we believe this is still one of the best in class life insurers in China and it is still trading at a slight discount to the sector. We would especially recommend CTIH for investors with at least a one-year time-frame. Anchor themes Following the recent re-rating of the sector on the back of the A- share rally, we believe expectations have run ahead of fundamentals. We see downside risk for the life sector and recommend investors to switch to PICC P&C. Nomura vs consensus Our FY13F earnings forecast is 8% higher than consensus. Research analysts China Insurance David Chung - NIHK david.m.chung@nomura.com +852 2252 621 Lucy Feng - NIHK lucy.feng@nomura.com +852 2252 2165 Ben Huang - NIHK ben.huang@nomura.com +852 2252 6242 31 Dec FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Currency (HKD) Actual Old New Old New Old New Net premium (mn) 48,13 58,124 58,124 68,25 68,25 79,395 79,395 Reported net profit (mn) 495 1,3 1,3 1,898 1,898 2,38 2,38 Normalised net profit (mn) 495 1,3 1,3 1,898 1,898 2,38 2,38 FD normalised EPS 29.5c 76.24c 76.24c 1.11 1.11 1.4 1.4 FD norm. EPS growth (%) -77.8 162.5 162.5 46. 46. 25.4 25.4 FD normalised P/E (x) 56.4 N/A 21.5 N/A 14.7 N/A 11.7 Price/EV (x) 2.6 N/A 2.2 N/A 1.8 N/A 1.6 Price/implied VNB (x) 15.3 N/A 13.1 N/A 11.1 N/A 8.5 Dividend yield (%) na N/A na N/A na N/A na ROE (%) 4.1 1.8 1.8 13.9 13.9 15. 15. ROA (%).3.6.6.8.8.8.8 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart. See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-us analysts.
Nomura China Tai Ping Insurance February 7, 213 Key data on China Tai Ping Insurance Profit and Loss (HKDmn) Year-end 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Gross premiums 48,759 5,98 58,124 68,25 79,395 Government charges Reinsurance ceded -1,942-1,968 Net written premium 46,817 48,13 58,124 68,25 79,395 Change in unearned premium reserves -836-521 -3,358-4,83-4,98 Net earned premium 45,981 47,69 54,766 64,167 74,415 Claims and benefit payments -9,799-11,887-14,69-16,983-2,648 Change in reserves -27,544-27,159-3,13-34,273-38,662 Commission and DAC expenses -4,15-4,49-5,481-6,389-7,381 Other expenses -8,491-9,73-9,46-1,854-12,579 Underwriting surplus -3,957-4,919-4,292-4,333-4,854 Recurrent investment income 4,213 5,748 6,434 7,549 8,977 Realised and unrealised gains 1,267-551 Investment income 5,48 5,197 6,434 7,549 8,977 Other income Employee share expense Operating profit 1,523 277 2,142 3,217 4,123 Amortisation Other non-operating income 65 363 158 168 179 Associates and JCEs 1,272 251 277 34 335 Pre-tax profit 2,86 892 2,577 3,689 4,637 Income tax -27 28-285 -343-427 Net profit after tax 2,653 92 2,292 3,346 4,21 Minority interests -49-425 -992-1,449-1,83 Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT 2,245 495 1,3 1,898 2,38 Extraordinary items Reported NPAT 2,245 495 1,3 1,898 2,38 Dividends Transfer to retained earnings 2,245 495 1,3 1,898 2,38 Relative performance chart (one year) Source: ThomsonReuters, Nomura research (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute (HKD) 4.3 23.3 14.4 Absolute (USD) 4.2 23.2 14.4 Relative to index -1.6 13.4-5.9 Market cap (USDmn) 3,6.9 Estimated free float (%) 44.2 52-week range (HKD) 18.58/1.6 3-mth avg daily turnover (USDmn) 5.63 Major shareholders (%) TPG (HK) 53.3 JPM Chase 7. Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research Notes Valuation and ratio analysis Reported P/E (x) 12.4 56.4 21.5 14.7 11.7 Normalised P/E (x) 12.4 56.4 21.5 14.7 11.7 FD normalised P/E (x) 12.5 56.4 21.5 14.7 11.7 FD normalised P/E at price target (x) 13.7 62. 23.6 16.2 12.9 Dividend yield (%) na na na na na Price/book (x) 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.6 Investment return (%) 4.78 3.41 3.46 3.44 3.44 Recurrent investment return (%) 3.67 3.77 3.46 3.44 3.44 Non-recurrent return/invt. return (%) 23.1-1.6... Price/EV (x) 3.2 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.6 Price/implied VNB (x) 21.1 15.3 13.1 11.1 8.5 Loss ratio (%) Combined ratio (%) Effective tax rate (%) 7.2-3.1 11. 9.3 9.2 Dividend payout (%)..... ROE (%) 19.5 4.1 1.8 13.9 15. ROA (%) 1.69.29.63.77.8 ROR (%) 5.3 1. 2.3 2.9 3.1 Growth (%) Life premiums 69.8 2.5 16.2 16. 14.4 Non life premiums 26.7 3.6 15.3 21.9 22.3 Net profit 171.9-77.9 162.5 46. 25.4 Normalised EPS 15.2-78. 162.5 46. 25.4 Normalised FDEPS 151.2-77.8 162.5 46. 25.4 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 34
Nomura China Tai Ping Insurance February 7, 213 Balance Sheet (HKDmn) As at 31 Dec FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Cash and deposits 27,345 33,764 39,532 47,1 55,73 Bonds 89,356 12,389 14,954 167,584 198,614 Equities 17,17 14,918 17,466 2,766 24,611 Unit trusts Loans and mortgages Foreign investments Real estate 2,312 2,77 3,218 3,814 Other investments Total investments 133,718 171,383 2,659 238,568 282,741 Deferred acquisition costs Prepaid and unearned prem. reserves Debtors and prepayments Fixed assets 3,281 4,48 Goodwill Separate account assets Other assets 17,485 15,941 22,336 32,371 44,597 Total assets 154,484 191,372 222,995 27,939 327,338 Insurance reserves 6,392 91,196 121,299 155,571 194,233 Catastrophe reserves Insurance protection fund 5 34 37 41 45 Deposit and investment contracts 36,278 31,368 29,78 27,379 26,257 Separate account liabilities Provision for Unearned Premiums 4,67 4,88 5,836 7,112 8,699 Provision for Outstanding Claims Interest bearing liabilities Other liabilities 35,214 47,92 47,952 59,242 72,999 Total liabilities 136,2 174,498 24,22 249,346 32,233 Minority interest 5,769 5,439 6,58 6,961 8,93 Common stock 85 85 85 85 85 Preferred stock Retained earnings 5,631 6,131 7,431 9,329 11,79 Proposed dividends Other equity 6,996 5,219 5,219 5,219 5,219 Shareholders' equity 12,712 11,435 12,735 14,633 17,13 Total liabilities and equity 154,484 191,372 222,995 27,939 327,338 Notes Balance sheet ratios (%) Life solvency margin 27.3 177.7 na na na Non-life solvency margin Net premiums/equity 361.7 416.4 43. 438.5 437.4 Tech. reserves/total premiums 123.9 182. 28.7 227.9 244.6 Investment portfolio mix (%) Cash and deposits 2.4 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 Bonds 66.8 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 Equities 12.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 Unit trusts..... Loans and mortgages..... Foreign investments..... Real estate. 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Other investments..... Per share Reported EPS (HKD) 1.32 29.5c 76.24c 1.11 1.4 Norm EPS (HKD) 1.32 29.5c 76.24c 1.11 1.4 Fully diluted norm EPS (HKD) 1.31 29.5c 76.24c 1.11 1.4 DPS (HKD)..... BVPS (HKD) 7.46 6.71 7.47 8.58 9.98 Life/LT EVPS (HKD) 5.14 6.33 7.57 8.91 1.4 Life/LT VNBPS (HKD).53.66.67.67.71 Value of non-life bus. PS (HKD)..... Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 35
Nomura China Tai Ping Insurance February 7, 213 Fig. 35: CTIH half-yearly results P&L 1H11 2H11 1H12 2H11 y-y 1H12 y-y Comments (HKDmn) (%) Net premiums earned and policy fees 25,469 22,14 29,27 7 15 We are expecting a generally better 2H12 in terms of topline growth especially from the bancassurance channel. However, we will wait for further indicators before turning more positive on 213. Net investment income 2,79 3,38 3,653 42 35 Net realized investment (losses)/gains 466 (4) (342) na na Net unrealized investment losses and impairment Source: Company data, Nomura research (39) (579) (738) na 1,84 Similar to peers, we are anticipating better investment performance in 1H13. Other income 142 21 18 79 27 Other (losses/gains) 82 (62) (23) 28 na Total income 28,829 24,339 31,999 2 11 Net policyholders' benefits (5,458) (6,43) (7,312) 24 34 Net commission expenses (2,32) (2,89) (2,574) 16 11 Administrative and other expenses (3,979) (4,529) (4,555) 8 14 Change in life insurance contract (15,695) (11,463) (16,181) (3) 3 liabilities, net of reinsurance Total benefits, losses and expenses (27,452) (24,511) (3,621) 7 na Profit from operations 1,378 (171) 1,378 (121) Share of profits of associates 4 247 88 3,441 2,14 na na Finance costs (278) (287) (291) 52 4 PBT 1,14 (212) 1,175 (111) 6 Income tax 15 13 (192) na na Minority interests (326) (99) (447) 56 37 Net profit attributed to shareholders 792 (297) 537 na (32) Valuation methodology Our price target of HKD18 is premised on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. For the life business, our target New Business (NB) multiple of 5.9x is derived by a risk discount rate (RDR) of 11.5%, based on Taiping Life s EV assumptions. We assume % NBV growth for the next 1 years. The valuation is based on a 1-year basis and assumes no perpetuity growth, an approach similar to the standard actuarial practice, as long-term growth is deemed too uncertain and therefore has close to zero value. We apply the target NB multiple to the FY14F New Business Value and then add the FY13F Embedded Value. We value the reinsurance operation (which was loss making in 1H12) by applying 1x PB to its net assets. We value Taiping Insurance and CTPI (HK) by applying 1x PE to their FY12F NPAT. Investment risks The key downside risks include poor returns from the A-share market, which would affect sentiment to insurers in general, and Taiping Life s inability to deliver the expected high VoNB growth under market pressure. 36
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 Appendix A-1 Analyst Certification We, David Chung and Lucy Feng, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of our compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company. Issuer Specific Regulatory Disclosures The term "Nomura Group" used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may refer to one or more Nomura Group companies. Materially mentioned issuers Issuer Ticker Price Price date Stock rating Previous rating Date of change Sector rating AIA 1299 HK HKD 3.7 1-Feb-213 Buy Neutral 29-Jul-211 Not rated Ping An Insurance Group 2318 HK HKD 7.84 1-Feb-213 Neutral Buy 28-Nov-212 Not rated PICC Property & Casualty 2328 HK HKD 11.92 1-Feb-213 Buy Neutral 6-Feb-213 Not rated China Pacific Insurance 261 HK HKD 3.4 1-Feb-213 Neutral Buy 6-Feb-213 Not rated China Life Insurance 2628 HK HKD 25.9 1-Feb-213 Neutral Buy 6-Feb-213 Not rated China Tai Ping Insurance 966 HK HKD 16.28 1-Feb-213 Buy Not Rated 2-Nov-21 Not rated Rating and target price changes Issuer Ticker Old stock rating New stock rating Old target price New target price AIA 1299 HK Buy Buy HKD 33. HKD 36. PICC Property & Casualty 2328 HK Neutral Buy HKD 11. HKD 14. China Pacific Insurance 261 HK Buy Neutral HKD 32. HKD 32. China Life Insurance 2628 HK Buy Neutral HKD 27. HKD 27. China Life Insurance: Valuation Methodology Our target price of HKD27 is premised on a target new business (NB) multiple of 1.x, which we derive by applying a risk discount rate (RDR) of 11% according to China Life s EV assumptions. We use our explicit VoNB growth forecasts for FY12-14F and assume 6% NBV growth for the next 15 years. Our valuation is on a 15-year basis and assumes no perpetuity growth, an approach similar to standard actuarial practice, as long-term growth is deemed too uncertain and therefore has close to zero value. We assume a higher NB multiple for China Life relative to peers because we believe China Life s network reach (especially in the more rural areas) will allow it to secure higher growth rates as the life insurance markets continue to mature in China. We apply the target NB multiple to China Life s FY14F new business value and add FY13F embedded value. China Life Insurance: Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Key upside risks include: 1) strongerthan-expected returns from the A-share market; and 2) earlier-than-expected pick-up in momentum in life insurance industry. Key downside risks include: 1) poor returns from the A-share market affecting sentiment to insurers in general, and 2) intense competition leading to a continued squeeze in NB margins for life insurers, especially China Life, which hopes to recapture market share. PICC Property & Casualty: Valuation Methodology Our TP of HKD14 is based on 2.5x our FY13F BVPS forecast of CNY4.35 and a sustainable ROE of 22.9%. We use the Gordon Growth Model [target P/BV = (sustainable ROE - long-term growth)/(cost of equity - long-term growth)] to derive our fair P/BV, assuming a cost of equity of 11% and a long-term growth rate of 3%. PICC Property & Casualty: Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Key downside risks include a worse-than-expected combined ratio from intensifying competition and poor returns from the A-share market, which would affect sentiment of insurers in general. 37
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 China Pacific Insurance: Valuation Methodology Our target price of HKD32 is premised on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. For the life business, our target NB multiple of 7.5x is derived by a risk discount rate (RDR) of 11.5%, according to CPIC s EV assumptions. We use our explicit VoNB growth forecasts for FY12-14F, and assume 7% NBV growth for the next 9 years (FY15-23F). We apply the target NB multiple to the FY14F new business value and then add the FY13F embedded value. We value CPIC s P&C business by applying 1x P/E to its FY12F NPAT and add the free capital available. China Pacific Insurance: Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Key upside risks: 1) sales of bancassurance products supporting higher VoNB growth; 2) stronger-than-expected returns from the A-share market, which would affect sentiment to insurers, in general. Key downside risks: 1) sales of bancassurance products being unable to support higher VoNB growth; 2) poor returns from the A-share market, which would affect sentiment among insurers, in general. AIA: Valuation Methodology Our TP of HKD36 implies a target PEV of 1.8x and NB multiple of 13.3x. While we appreciate the geographically diversified business of AIA and its capital management ability, we do not place a premium or discount to our valuation for this since it is perhaps too difficult to quantify. We use a risk discount rate of 9.2%, derived from AIA s weighted average (by EV) discount rate of its markets in 21. We use our explicit VoNB growth forecasts for FY12-14F, an assumed 1-2% VNB growth over the next four years (FY15-18F), and then 3-5% for the four years thereafter (FY19-22F). The valuation is on a 1-year basis and assumes no perpetuity growth, an approach similar to standard actuarial practice, as long-term growth is deemed too uncertain and therefore has close to zero value. AIA: Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Key downside risks including USD strength, potential financial institution or European exposure through its corporate bond portfolio and AIG lockup expiry. Also, with exposure around the region, any potential negative newsflow could potentially create negative sentiment. 38
Nomura China insurance February 7, 213 Important Disclosures Online availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura research is available on www.nomuranow.com/research, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, MarkitHub, Reuters and ThomsonOne. Important disclosures may be read at http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc., on 1-877-865-5752. If you have any difficulties with the website, please email grpsupporteu@nomura.com for help. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. 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Distribution of ratings (Global) The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura Global Equity Research is as follows: 43% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 41% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 45% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 46% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 12% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 26% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. As at 31 December 212. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report. 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A rating of 'Suspended', indicates that the rating, target price and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including, but not limited to, when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe: please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks for stocks, which can be accessed at: http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx; Global Emerging Markets (ex-asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology. SECTORS A 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. Benchmarks are as follows: United States: S&P 5; Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 6; Global Emerging Markets (ex-asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-asia. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Japan and Asia ex-japan STOCKS Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Target Price - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Target Price will equal the analyst's 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock, based on an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc. A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%. A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more. A rating of 'Suspended' indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the subject company. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage of the Nomura entity identified in the top banner. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies. SECTORS A 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation. Target Price A Target Price, if discussed, reflects in part the analyst's estimates for the company's earnings. The achievement of any target price may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market, and may not occur if the company's earnings differ from estimates. 39
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