Country Profile North Korea December 2011
The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. Copyright 2011 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment Country Profiles Series Editor J. J. Messner Country Profile Written by Jonas Vaicikonis The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CCPPR11KP (Version 12H) Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 2 The Fund for Peace
Profile North Korea Numbers Pressures Capacity Combined Failed States Index Score Failed States Index Rank Average Indicator Score Year-on-Year Core 5 + 2 Average Score Core 5 + 2 Rank Capacity Minus Pressures 95.6 22nd 8.0-2.2 2.0 169th -5.9 Maximum 120 of 177 countries Maximum 10 Improvement Maximum 10 of 177 countries Pressures Assessment: Alert Capacity Assessment: Poor High Pressure Low Capacity Outlook The flight of North Koreans into China and the existence of massive political prisoner camps attest to deep dissatisfaction among the population. Kim Jong-Il is said to be ailing, though the reports are not confirmed, and most of the party elite are of an older generation. The eventual transition of power will be an important test for the authoritarian regime. Recent tensions over the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel by a North Korean torpedo, and increased international sanctions that could follow, could further strain the economy and the regime. Kim Jong Il is expected to officially designate his son Kim Jong-Un as his successor in 2012. Comparative Statistics Population GDP Per Capita (PPP) Life Expectancy Median Age 24,460,000 US$ 1,800 33.9 years 67.3 years China 1,339,000,000 Qatar US $ 91,379 Japan 82.6 years Japan 44.6 years Seychelles 86,500 D.R. Congo US $ 319 Swaziland 39.6 years Uganda 15.0 years 3 The Fund for Peace
Indicators Social, Economic & Political Pressures Social & Economic Indicators Demographic Pressures Refugees and IDPs Group Grievance Human Flight Uneven Development Poverty and Decline 8.2 5.3 6.9 4.7 8.5 9.2 41st 82nd 57th 124th 18th 3rd Poor Moderate Weak Moderate Poor Poor Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Improved Improved Improved Improved Improved Improved 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Steady Improved Steady Steady Improved Steady Recent Improvements and Declines North Korea is prone to droughts and severe floods which contribute to chronic food shortages. Deforestation and environmental degradation, as well as a shortage of arable land and low investment in agriculture, contribute to insufficient food production. North Korea s state-run economy continues to degenerate, leaving the population to depend on barter and small personal plots of land to feed themselves. North Korea s refugee score improved in 2010, though it is impossible to count the actual number of IDP fleeing to other parts of the country to avoid natural disasters including the floods along the Yalu River. North Korea s human flight score remains slightly improved, suggesting that no catastrophic events forced larger numbers of refugees to flee the country. North Korea s ruling regime continues repressing its population and stifling any perceived opposition. The disastrous currency devaluation in 2009 continues to keep food prices high. Increased sanctions from UNSCR 1874 have forced North Korea to find new markets for its mineral and armament exports in the Middle East, such as Syria, Iran, Egypt (before the revolution), and others. The economy is believed to have grown in 2009, thanks to more foreign aid, a better harvest, and new trading opportunities. The 2011 Index for Economic Freedom places North Korea last out of all the countries in the world for freedom. economic 4 The Fund for Peace
North Korea Political & Military Indicators Legitimacy of the State Public Services Human Rights Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention 9.9 9.3 9.5 8.1 7.4 8.6 1st 5th 3rd 23rd 72nd 20th Poor Poor Poor Poor Weak Poor Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Steady Improved Steady Steady Improved Worsened 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Improved Worsened Recent Improvements and Declines North Korea s State Legitimacy score remained as high as in 2010 due partly to international concern that the world s most corrupted regime could divert food aid to their own uses. Free speech has gotten no worse and there are even reports of several underground media outlets getting news to North Koreans by way of thumb drives and CDs. North Korea s score for State Legitimacy declined further, likely because of plans to install a third-generation hereditary ruler. North Korea s torpedoing of a South Korean naval ship raised tensions to an extreme level. Arms sales remain a significant detriment to world security, despite heavy UN sanctions. Recent artillery bombardment of South Korean island territory raised tensions in 2009. Kim Jong-Il became the leader of North Korea after the death of his father, Kim Il- Sung, continuing to rule the country singlehandedly. Both men have steered the country away from engagement with the rest of the world, especially after the fall of the Soviet Union. It appears that Kim Jong-Un may be preparing to succeed his father as ruler in the event of Kim Jong-Il s death. North Korea is frequently responsible for provoking its neighbors with missile tests, artillery barrages, or aggressive rhetoric. Its nuclear weapons program persists. It continues to smuggle weapons, drugs, fake pharmaceuticals, and endangered species throughout the region. 5 The Fund for Peace
Pressures and Capacities Trends and Comparisons Multi-Year Pressures Trend 100 98 Failed States Index (Pressures) Total Score 96 94 92 90 88 The large chart represents a magnified portion of the full scale, shown below: 120 90 60 30 Alert 86 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 84 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Multi-Indicator Comparison Pressures Pressures better than average Pressures worse than average 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Finland: Best Performer Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Capacities Capacity lower than average Capacity higher than average 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Austria: Best Performer A visual representation of the proportion of the total pressure and capacity scores that are contributed by each individual indicator. Each color within the bar chart corresponds to the colors of the 12 Failed States Index (pressure) indicators and the 7 Core 5+2 (capacity) indicators. Guidelines are also provided to demonstrate the average score for all 177 countries, as well as the extremes of best and worst performers. 6 The Fund for Peace
North Korea State Institutions and Civil Society: Core 5+2 Indicators Leadership Military Police Judiciary Civil Service Civil Society 1.0 2.3 8.1 1.1 0.1 0.9 0.7 Media Poor Weak Excellent Poor Poor Poor Poor Pressures v. Capacity Plot Comparison Low Capacity High Capacity 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0 Switzerland Norway Finland Ireland Japan France Argentina Estonia Mongolia This chart compares pressures with capacities by comparing the Failed States Index score (representing pressures) with an average indicator score for the Core 5+2 (representing capacity). Note that the capacity score is an average, as not all countries have been assessed for all Core 5+2 indicators as yet, due to insufficient data. (Note that the capacity measures are still under development.) Somalia Low Pressure 20 40 60 80 100 High Pressure 120 Cyprus Libya Paraguay Israel Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Georgia North Korea Myanmar C.A.R. Iraq Zimbabwe Haiti Afghanistan Sudan Chad D.R.C. Pressures v. Capacities Flat Comparison A representation of capacities vs. pressures based on the difference between average capacity indicator score and average pressure indicator score. Higher Pressure, Lower Capacity North Korea -10-8 -6-4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 Lower Pressure, Higher Capacity 7 The Fund for Peace
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