Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and North Texas

Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and North Texas Leadership North Texas University Dallas, Texas January 19, 2017 @TexasDemography

Growing States, 2000-2016 2000 Population 2010 Population 2016 Population Numeric Change 2010-2016 Percent Change 2010-2016 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 323,127,513 14,369,408 4.65% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 27,862,596 2,716,496 10.80% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,250,017 1,995,495 5.36% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 20,612,439 1,807,847 9.62% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,310,371 621,691 6.42% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,146,788 611,100 6.41% Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,288,000 563,455 8.38% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 6,931,071 538,770 8.43% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2015 Population Estimates. 2

Total Population in Texas, 1950-2016 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2016 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. 3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 Migration Natural Increase 10.5% 13.3% 58.5% 34.1% 50.3% 46.3% 89.5% 86.7% 41.5% 65.9% 49.7% 53.7% 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Dallas Howard Foard Floyd Brewster Franklin Hunt Newton Starr Kinney Collingsworth Tom Green Coleman Brazoria Leon Duval Lamb Morris Smith Jackson Medina Wheeler Dallam Callahan Lamar Coryell Gaines Kendall Nacogdoches Milam Hays Willacy Johnson Reagan Webb Shackelford Bowie Scurry Kenedy Somervell Oldham Taylor King Borden Walker Stephens Deaf Smith Roberts Tyler Val Verde Brown Parker Harris Zapata Red River Karnes Palo Pinto Glasscock Shelby Wood Crosby Refugio Burnet Sterling Montgomery San Augustine Rains Nueces Jack Swisher Camp Brazos Orange Colorado Pecos Cochran Parmer Freestone Winkler Wichita Gray Schleicher Hardeman Travis Gillespie Yoakum Fayette Uvalde Grimes Van Zandt Throckmorton Falls Grayson Ellis Hall Dickens Trinity Reeves Marion Terrell Lynn La Salle Jasper Jones Castro Victoria Kleberg Briscoe Clay Matagorda Brooks Runnels Carson Liberty Lee Hale Bexar Garza Montague Upton Hamilton Fisher Dawson Dimmit Hutchinson Llano Presidio Eastland Wharton Rusk Tarrant Lavaca Childress Hidalgo Kaufman Moore Menard Edwards San Patricio Terry Crockett Houston Waller Coke Ward Titus Lampasas Haskell Martin Atascosa Hemphill Hartley Young Burleson Hardin Gonzales McMullen Erath Galveston Hopkins McLennan Madison McCulloch Donley Kent Real Sutton Midland Hudspeth Zavala Harrison Comanche Mitchell Navarro Crane Lubbock Wise Washington Jeff Davis El Paso Gregg Williamson Lipscomb Mason Henderson Hansford Chambers Hill Potter Jim Wells Delta Stonewall Ector Cameron Maverick Collin Baylor Panola Guadalupe Bastrop Austin Andrews Anderson Blanco DeWitt Bandera Bell Aransas Archer Armstrong Bee Angelina Bailey Jefferson Frio Fannin Goliad Loving Cass Fort Bend Bosque Hockley San Saba Kerr Mills Cooke Wilbarger Irion Caldwell Jim Hogg Culberson Upshur Cherokee Denton Concho Randall Kimble Knox Polk Hood San Jacinto Robertson Wilson Nolan Cottle Calhoun Rockwall Live Oak Motley Sherman Ochiltree Comal Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates tl_2010_48_county10 POPESTIMATE2015 112-10,000 10,001-50,000 50,001-100,000 100,001-500,000 500,001-4,538,028 5

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2015 tl_2010_48_county10 NPOPCH1015-1,913-0 1-1,000 1,001-20,000 20,001-80,000 80,001-444,952 99 counties lost population over the five year period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage. 6

tl_2010_48_county10 PctPOPCH1015-14.9% - 0% 0.1% - 2.5% 2.6% - 5% 5.1% - 10% 10.1% - 36.6% Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage. 7

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2014-2015 County U.S. Rank Population Change Population Change Percent of Change from Natural Increase Percent Change from Migration Percent Change from International Migration Harris 1 90,451 49.3% 50.7% 32.0% Bexar 5 37,479 41.2% 58.8% 17.0% Tarrant 6 36,152 46.3% 53.7% 20.2% Dallas 9 33,760 68.1% 31.9% 39.0% Fort Bend 13 29,437 20.7% 79.3% 16.5% Collin 14 28,075 24.8% 75.2% 15.8% Denton 16 25,820 25.5% 74.5% 11.7% Travis 17 25,562 42.5% 57.5% 22.9% Williamson 27 19,086 20.9% 79.1% 6.7% Montgomery 29 18,505 19.2% 80.8% 9.9% *Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015 County U.S. Rank 2014-2015 Percent Population Change Percent Change from Migration Percent Change from International Migration Hays 1 5.2% 85.5% 1.9% Comal 2 4.5% 90.7% 2.1% Fort Bend 4 4.3% 79.3% 16.5% Williamson 7 3.9% 79.1% 6.7% Montgomery 10 3.6% 80.8% 9.9% Denton 12 3.4% 74.5% 11.7% Ector 18 3.3% 63.1% 3.1% Midland 19 3.3% 66.2% 3.2% Collin 23 3.2% 75.2% 15.8% Kaufman 25 3.1% 79.8% 3.2% Parker 29 2.8% 89.8% 2.2% Brazos 32 2.8% 69.2% 27.4% Guadalupe 38 2.7% 78.8% 4.6% Ellis 39 2.7% 77.2% 2.7% *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Percent Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 NH White 52% NH Black 11% Hispanic or Latino 32% NH Asian 3% NH Other 2% NH White 45% NH Black 11% Hispanic or Latino 38% NH Asian 4% NH Other 2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 10

Population Texas White (non-hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2014 250,000 200,000 White (non-hispanic) Hispanic 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 Age 11

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic 85 + years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates 12

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic 85 + years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates 13

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic 85 + years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates 14

Domestic and International Net Migration for the Top Five Growth States, 2013-14 Georgia 22,106 24,818 Arizona 41,975 14,234 California -32,090 161,318 Texas 154,467 84,637 Florida 138,546 112,306 Domestic Migration International Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2015 15

Top 10 Gross Migration States for Domestic Migration to Texas, 2013 Georgia 14,715 18,924 New York New Mexico 14,803 15,504 21,129 22,049 Arizona Colorado 18,428 19,451 19,139 23,141 Illinois 12,719 30,672 Louisiana 22,259 28,457 Florida 19,988 33,321 Oklahoma California 29,051 28,906 31,499 62,386 Out-Migrants From Texas In-Migrants to Texas U.S. Census Bureau ACS 1-Year PUMS,2013 16

Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2013

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Percentage of Population with Drive Times Longer than 25 Minutes, Texas Census Tracts, 1990 and 2010* 1990 2010* Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 decennial census and *American Community Survey, 2008-2012 5 Year Sample.

Mean Commute Time (minutes) of workers, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Lampasas Falls Bell Burnet Legend Milam tl_2010_48_tract10 commute MeanCommute Williamson 4.8-15 Burleson 15.1-20 20.1-25 25.1-30 Blanco Travis Lee 30.1-70 Bastrop Hays Caldwell Fayette Guadalupe Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2009-2013. Comal Sources: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), MapmyIndia, OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community 23

Density by Census Tract, Metroplex Area, 1970-2010 1980 1970 Montague Cooke Montague Grayson Cooke 1990 Grayson Fannin Fannin Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Delta Jack Wise Wise Denton Hunt Collin Denton Rockwall Rockwall Parker Dallas Tarrant Parker Dallas Tarrant Van Zandt Kaufman Kaufman Collin Hunt Rains Dallas Tarrant Wise Hunt Hopkins Rockwall Parker Denton Collin Van Zandt Kaufman Van Zandt Hood Hood Johnson Johnson Hood Ellis Ellis Johnson Ellis Henderson Henderson Erath Henderson Navarro Navarro Somervell Legend Somervell Hill Hill Somervell Navarro Hill Montague Cooke Persons per tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Square Mile Pctch1013 Wise 2000 Montague Grayson Denton Cooke Fannin Wise Collin 0 10-11-0% 2010 Grayson Denton Fannin Collin Hunt Hunt 11 50 0.1-2.5% Rockwall Rockwall 51 500 2.51-5% 501 4,000 5.1-10% Parker Parker Dallas Tarrant 4,001 56,000 10.1-14.7% Kaufman Dallas Tarrant Van Zandt Kaufman Van Zandt Hood Hood Johnson Johnson Ellis Ellis Henderson Henderson Somervell Navarro Hill Somervell Navarro Hill Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses. Geolytics, Neighborhood Change Database Tract Data from 1970-2010

Percent of Housing Units Built Before 1960, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 PctHUBlt00plus 0% - 25% 25.1% - 45% 45.1% - 65% 65.1% - 80% 80.1% - 100% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5-Year Sample Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China 25 (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom

Percent of Housing Units Built Between 1960 and 1999, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 PctHUBlt00plus 0% - 25% 25.1% - 45% 45.1% - 65% 65.1% - 80% 80.1% - 100% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5-Year Sample Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom 26

Percent of Housing Units Built After 1999, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 PctHUBlt00plus 0% - 25% 25.1% - 45% 45.1% - 65% 65.1% - 80% 80.1% - 100% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5-Year Sample 27 Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom

Percent of the population that is Hispanic, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Wise Denton Collin tl_2010_48_county10 tl_2010_48_tract10 PctHispanic 0% - 20% Rockwall 20.1% - 35% 35.1% - 50% 50.1% - 80% Parker Tarrant Dallas 80.1% - 100% World Street Map Kaufman Hood Johnson Ellis Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2009-2013. Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom Kaufman 28

Percent of the population that is Black/African American, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Legend Wise Denton Collin tl_2010_48_county10 Hunt tl_2010_48_tract10 PctBlack 0% - 5% Rockwall 5.1% - 15% 15.1% - 30% Parker Tarrant Dallas 30.1% - 60% 60.1% - 99.3% Kaufman Hood Johnson Ellis Henderson Somervell Hill Bosque Erath Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2009-2013. Navarro Henderson Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Hill Esri (Thailand), TomTom 29

Percent of the population that is Asian, Census Tracts, Metroplex Area, Texas, 2009-2013 Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Legend Wise Denton Collin tl_2010_48_county10 Hunt tl_2010_48_tract10 PctAsian 0% - 2.5% Rockwall 2.6% - 7.5% 7.6% - 15% Parker Tarrant Dallas 15.1% - 30% Kaufman 30.1% - 70.2% Hood Johnson Ellis Henderson Somervell Erath Hill Bosque Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2009-2013. Navarro Henderson 30 Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Hill Esri (Thailand), TomTom

Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing, Census Tracts, MetroPlex, 2010-2014 Legend tl_2016_48_tract DP04 MedValOwnOccHU14 $0.00 - $100,000.00 $100,000.01 - $150,000.00 $150,000.01 - $300,000.00 $300,000.01 - $500,000.00 $500,000.01 - $999,500.00 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 5-Year Samples Sources: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri 31

Percent Change Black Population, Census Tracts, South Dallas, TX, 2010-2014 Legend tl_2016_48_tract ChpctBlack -34.4% - -10% -9.9% - -5% -4.9% - 0% 0.1% - 7.5% 7.6% - 37% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-2010 and 2010-2014 5-Year Samples 32

Median Rent as a Percent of Median Household Income, Census Tracts, Texas, 2010-2014 Legend tl_2016_48_tract DP04 Medrentpctinc 10% - 20% 20.1% - 25% 25.1% - 30% 30.1% - 40% 40.1% - 50% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2010-2014. 33

Percent of households receiving SNAP benefits, Census Tracts, Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas, 2010-2014 Legend tl_2010_48_tract10 PctHHSNAP 0% - 5% 5.1% - 15% 15.1% - 25% 25.1% - 40% 40.1% - 100% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 5 Year Sample 34

Food Desert (Low Income, Low Access) Census Tracts, 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-access-research-atlas/download-the-data.aspx 35

Millions Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Zero Migration 0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration 2000-2010 Migration Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections 36

Millions Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2015 28 28 27 27 Zero Migration 0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration 2000-2010 Migration Estimates 26 26 25 25 24 Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates 37

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 No Migration 1/2 2000-2010 2000-2010 38

Population Estimates and Projections, Metroplex Counties, 2010-2015 4000000 3500000 Dallas.5 Dallas Dallas Est. Tarrant.5 Tarrant Tarrant Est. 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 2050 2048 2046 2044 2042 2040 2038 2036 2034 2032 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 39

Population Estimates and Projections, Metroplex Counties, 2010-2015 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 Collin.5 Collin Collin Est. Denton.5 Denton Denton Est. 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2050 2048 2046 2044 2042 2040 2038 2036 2034 2032 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 40

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 NH-White NH-Black Hispanic NH-Other 5,000,000 0 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections, 2000-2010 Migration Scenario 41

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% White Black Hispanic Other 60% 55% 50% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35.0% 30.0% 31.3% 29.9% 2011 ACS 25.0% 23.8% 24.0% 2030 Constant 2011 % 20.0% 18.1% 20.1% 18.7% 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 9.8% 9.3% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 43

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 31.3% 34.3% 2011 ACS 2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend) 25.0% 20.0% 23.8% 20.4% 20.1% 22.1% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 11.4% 9.8% 11.8% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 44

Teen (ages 15-19 years) birth rates, the U.S. and select states, 2014 Area Rank Birth Rate Per 1,000 Women UnitedStates 24.2 Arkansas 1 39.5 Oklahoma 2 38.5 Mississippi 3 38.0 New Mexico 4 37.8 Texas 5 37.8 West Virginia 6 36.6 Louisiana 7 35.8 Kentucky 8 35.3 Tennessee 9 33.0 Alabama 10 32.0 Wyoming 11 30.1 Arizona 12 29.9 South Carolina 13 28.5 Nevada 14 28.5 District of Columbia 15 28.4 Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 45

Adult Obesity Source: http://stateofobesity.org/files/stateofobesity2015.pdf 46

Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040 Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections 47

Texas Population Issues Rapidly growing population in Texas triangle Transportation Water Education Poverty Housing Health and health care Population loss in rural Texas 48

Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@utsa.edu Internet: demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography 49