Meeting the Needs of Today s Adult Student. Accelerate, accelerate and then accelerate some more. Scott Jeffe, Director Aslanian Market Research EducationDynamics 2012 Council for Accelerated Programs Regional Workshop October 8, 2012
Three Fundamental Questions Where do adults fit into American higher education today? What do adults in need of college study need (and demand) from the colleges in which they enroll? What are the most important things that colleges and universities can do to ensure that adults who need additional education can enroll? Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012
Higher Education Enrollment (All levels, NCES fall unduplicated headcount, in millions) 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-P 2015-P 2020-P Under 25 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35+ years
High School Graduation Trends (National) Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012
Higher Education Enrollments Percent Age 25+ Undergraduate 31% Graduate 81% Total 42% Actual Total Adult Enrollment: About 50% 12-month unduplicated headcount is a better indicator of total adult learner traffic given the nature of adult enrollment. Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012 Source: NCES Fall Enrollment
U.S. Adults: Highest Level of Education This table comes from A Stronger Nation Through Higher Education. Lumina Foundation, 2012.
NY Adults: Highest Level of Education
There is a revolution coming to higher education.
The last technology to revolutionize higher education? According to Clayton Christensen, author of The Innovative University
Well, not the printing press, but the arrival of mass print textbooks in the 1840 s-50 s.
Next revolution?
Who is Taking Online Classes? Condition of Education, 2011 NCES
Market Trends in Online Education 10.8m* 2.3m 780k 6.1m 4.6m 3.5m 1.2m 1.8m 2.1m 3.4m 2004 2006 2008 2010 2016 (est) Took at Least 1 Online Course Took All Courses Online * 10.8m is based on 10% annual compounded growth (Sloan C estimates 10% growth between 2009-2010) Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012 Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets, Education and Training 2012; Babson Survey Research Group, Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011
Future of Online Enrollments 2010 10% of all enrollments 2015 16% of all enrollments The for-profit sector attracts close to 40% of online learners and makes up 7 of the top 10 institutions supplying online programs today. What about tomorrow? Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012 Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets Education and Training, September 2012, Babson Survey Research Group Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011; IPEDS
Something to think about: Some are reporting that interest in online learning has plateaued. Currently 10 percent of all higher ed students in the US are enrolled in fully online study, but 20 to 30 percent of adult students in AMR studies regularly prefer fully online study. Where do YOU think online enrollments are going?
The availability of technology enhanced learning has had a profound impact on where adult students are enrolling.
Where are adults enrolling? Condition of Education, 2011 NCES
For-Profit Postsecondary Sector (degree-granting and non degree-granting institutions) 2010 2.43m* students (11.2% share) (initial estimate had been 2 mil**, or 10%) Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012 Sources: NCES* and BMO Capital**
For-Profit Postsecondary Sector (degree-granting and non degree-granting institutions) 2010 2.43m* students (11.2% share) (initial estimate had been 2 mil**, or 10%) 2016 2.1m** students (9.4% share) **Market expected to hit bottom in 2013 (9.1%)** Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012 Sources: NCES* and BMO Capital**
Market Share: Online Enrollments Institution Type Fall 2011 Enrollment Forecast 2014 Enrollment Not-for-Profit 63% 71% For-Profit 37 29 Greatest threat to for-profit enrollment is longstanding regional institutions becoming more savvy. Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012 Source: Eduventures, 2011
Future of Online Enrollments 2010 10% of all enrollments 2015 16% of all enrollments Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012 Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets Education and Training, September 2012, Babson Survey Research Group Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011; IPEDS
Today s Adult Students Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012
General Learning Patterns of Adult Students based on Aslanian Market Research nationwide studies Seek degrees, but also certificates, licenses and courses Study in career fields Most often: Business, Education, Health Professions, Social Sciences Prefer shorter/fast-track courses: 8-weeks or less 1/3 study full-time (degree seekers) Day AND evening study Prefer multiple learning options hybrid/class/online Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012
Enrollment Decision Making Factors Very Somewhat Not Undergraduate important important important Cost of tuition and fees 79% 19% 2% Day and time classroom courses meet 74% 22% 5% Reputation of the college or program 72% 22% 6% Credit awarded for prior learning/life experience 64% 29% 8% Length of time to complete my studies 64% 22% 14% Accreditation of institution and/or program 64% 33% 4% Transferability of previously earned credits 58% 37% 6% Location of the college 54% 33% 13%
Enrollment Decision Making Factors Graduate Very important Somewhat important Not important Day and time classroom courses meet 73% 21% 7% Accreditation of institution and/or program 72% 25% 4% Cost of tuition and fees 70% 23% 7% Reputation of the college or program 67% 28% 6% Location of the university 59% 31% 11% Length of time to complete my studies 55% 39% 7% Credit awarded for prior learning/life experience 41% 36% 23%
Highest Demand Majors in 2010-2011 (in order of 2010-2011 market demand) Undergrad Degrees Graduate Degrees Nursing Business Administration Psychology Accounting Business Management Criminal Justice Marketing Education: Elementary Finance Computer Science Business Administration Counseling Education Leadership/Admin. Communications Psychology Social Work Public Health Marketing Organizational Leadership Elementary Ed/Special Ed Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012
Preferred Course Format Undergraduate Graduate
Satisfaction with Course Format Undergraduate Had Taken Course Type Not Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Mean Rating Face-to- Face 61% 1% 2% 14% 43% 40% 4.21 Partially Online 21% 2% 4% 16% 44% 33% 4.02 Fully Online 17% 8% 0% 0% 50% 42% 4.17
Satisfaction with Course Format Graduate Had Taken Course Type Not Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied Mean Rating Face-to- Face 59% 0% 5% 14% 35% 45% 4.22 Partially Online 20% 0% 5% 14% 51% 30% 4.14 Fully Online 26% 2% 4% 4% 35% 55% 4.42
Number of Weeks - Undergraduate
Number of Weeks - Graduate
Actual and Preferred Level of Acceleration Undergrad Actual Undergrad - Preferred
Actual and Preferred Level of Acceleration Graduate Actual Graduate - Preferred
Preferred Time of Day Percent of Undergraduate Adult Students Preferred Percent of Graduate Students Preferred Weekday early mornings (finished by 9:00 a.m.) 4% 1% Weekday mornings (9:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon) 33 11 Weekday afternoons (12:00 noon to 5:30 p.m.) 14 16 Weekday evenings (5:30 p.m. or later) 46 67 Weekends 3 5
Flexibility or Completion? Undergraduate Graduate
New Realities Age has less and less impact on the way students learn. All students increasingly approach higher education as consumers. Adults study across all units of the institution. Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012
New Realities Adult study is no longer only night study. Adult students are independent, savvy, and vote with their feet. Employers have realized the value of ongoing training to their bottom line. Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012
New Realities More jobs today require more education. More and more adults seeking certificates, licenses, and individual courses. Continuing education marketing budgets are currently insufficient in a highly competitive marketplace. Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012
Thank You! Scott Jeffe Aslanian Market Research EducationDynamics sjeffe@educationdynamics.com Office 201.377.3332 Mobile 917.923.2155 adultstudents.educationdynamics.com Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012