Continuing and Professional Education Market Update Emerging Solutions to the

Transcription

1 Continuing and Professional Education Market Update Emerging Solutions to the Time/Cost Barrier in Adult Higher Education National Louis University November 8, 2012

2 Agenda Emerging Solutions to the Time/Cost Barrier in Adult Higher Education Key Features of the Adult Higher Education Market in 2012 Adult Participation in Higher Education: Recent Growth and Context Risk of Adult Enrollment Decline, Heightened Competition, Regulatory Complexity Understanding the Future of Adult Higher Education Barriers Emerging Solutions Grow or Enhance? NLU Market Opportunities Bachelor s Degrees: Market Opportuni Master s Degrees: Market Opportuniti 2

3 Massive Growth: Adult Participation 50%+ growth in adult participation in higher education in past 20 years due to shifting job landscape and growth in adult-focused HE providers Adults Want Higher Education 64% 51% 1% Adult Undergraduate Enrollment Aged % Growth Adult Graduate Enrollment Aged % Growth U.S. Population Aged % Growth Source: IPEDS, U.S. Census and Eduventures analysis 3

4 Adult Population Growth: Context Today, the high school graduate boom is over as that demographic moves into the year old adult higher education population 11% % Growth % Growth % 0% 18 Year Olds Year Olds -6% Source: US Census and Eduventures analysis. 4

5 Adult Population Growth: Demographic Trends Coming decade could continue to boom for adult higher education, but undermined by alignment of growth with strengthening economy 20% Estimated/Forecasted Five-Year U.S. Population Growth % 17.5% 16.3% 16.8% 10% 11.3% 9.7% 18 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 to 64 years 7.4% 65 years and over 5% 4.9% 4.5% 3.3% 2.5% 3.6% 0% -2.2% -0.5% -1.6% -0.1% -2.2% -5% Source: U.S. Census and Eduventures analysis 5

6 Undergraduate Adult Population Growth: Context Focus trumps demographics; economy trumps focus. Adults up 9% and up 46% % 20% 15% % Undergraduate Growth (Age 25-44) % Growth in National Population Adult Undergraduate Participation Index Age % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 6.6% 6.8% 6.8% 7.4% 6.6% 4.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 2.0% 2.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% % -3.0% -1.2% -0.6% -0.1% -6.3% Recession 5.8% Source: IPEDS, U.S. Census and Eduventures analysis 6

7 Graduate Adult Population Growth: Context Strong momentum (58% growth from 1999 to 2009) from small base; power of institutional focus on adult learners, plus counter-cyclicality 25% 20% % Graduate Growth (Age 25-44) % Growth in National Population Adult Graduate Participation Index Age % 2.1% 2.8% 2.3% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 10.7% 6.6% 9.2% 5.0% 4.1% 4.7% 4.8% 1.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% % 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% -5% Recession -1.2% -0.6% -0.1% -0.2% Source: IPEDS, U.S. Census and Eduventures analysis 7

8 Risk of Adult Enrollment Decline Overall higher education enrollment down (<1%) for first time in 15 years; adult enrollment growth slows but still remarkable for the mainstream 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5% 4% 3% 6% Major For-Profit & Online Schools (c.30) Adult Undergraduates (Aged 25+)- % Growth Fall Adult Graduate Students (Aged 25+)- % Growth Fall Mainstream Nonprofits (c.1,900) Source: IPEDS and Eduventures analysis. 8

9 Regulatory Compliance Complexities of education to non-traditional students - The federal Program Int Title IV funds, attempt to better harness non-traditional enrollment growth. June 2012 court ruling states federal DOE overstepped. Waiting for DOE response. State Authorization: Schools must secure autho every U.S. state/territory, including online enrollment, where required. Credit Hour: Schools must adhere to new federal definition or make the case for an alternative. Some schools fear enforcement will hamper use of attainment measures beyond seat-time Gainful Employment: For-credit programs at for-profit schools, and forcredit non-degree programs at nonprofits to be evaluated against various graduate repayment and debt/income ratios. Draft rule did the most to prompt a for-profit re-think, at least among major schools (e.g. rationalization of programming, stricter admissions, mandatory orientation, revised financial aid distribution), pointing to a strategic element to enrollment slowdown. Source: IPEDS and Eduventures analysis. 9

11 Barriers Major barriers: cost and time. Some also cite confusion over financial aid, demanding childcare and work responsibilities, and debt aversion Majority of Adults Interested in School but Many See No Possibility 22% 33% Anticipate Going/Returning to School in next 3 years Do not Anticipate School, but Interested 44% Do not Anticipate School, not Interested Source: Eduventures Adult Higher Education Consu 11

12 Emerging Solutions: Online The majority of schools offer online programs, and the ratio rises; but, scale is still concentrated with a small minority 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 69% Online Headcount by School Type, % 45% Est. % Schools with Online Programs 2005 Est. % Schools with Online Programs 2010 Est Online Market Share 55% 30% 20% 26% 20% 25% 10% 0% 0% Type 1 (zero) Type 2 (<1,000 online headcount) 10% 4% Type 3 (1,000-3,000) 1% 2.4% Type 4 (3,000+) Source: IPEDS, HLC, Sloan-C, school data and Eduventures estimates 12

13 Emerging Solutions: Online While wholly/majority online study linked to adult student participation, adult preference for online delivery has remained flat Online Value Proposition Too Limited 37% 38% 28% 18% Online/Majority Online/Majority Online as % of Adult Online as % of Adult Student Headcount Student Headcount (Fall, 2006) (Fall, 2011) Prospective Adult Student Preference for Online/Majority Online (2006) Prospective Adult Student Preference for Online/Majority Online (2012) Source: Eduventures Adult Higher Education Consu 13

14 Emerging Solutions: Online Projected online headcount plateau by 2015 unless experiential or market breakthrough, rapid adult learner growth, or for-profit rethink Source: IPEDS and Eduventures analysis. 14

15 Emerging Solutions: MOOCs and Alternative Credentials New players/offerings seek to address cost/time barriers through free/inexpensive programming and course-sized offerings Adults Intrigued by Free/Inexpensive Online Courses, MOOCs, etc 2% 18% 12% Currently Enrolled Enrolled in the Past 68% Never Enrolled but Interested Never Enrolled, Not Interested Source: Eduventures Adult Higher Education Consu 15

16 Emerging Solutions: Hybrid Models Leveraging all assets campus, online, vendors technology-enhanced education and pedagogy offers potential for more engaging delivery Flipped classroom: online lectures consumed outside of class and class time is used for exercises, problems, and discussion Peer-to-peer learning: students teach eac part of classroom group discussion and interaction (e.g. clickers) Alternative digital deliverables: assessment deliverables options may include term papers but also may include the creation of other digital artifacts (videos, infographics, re-useable learning objec - to screencasts) Public/private partnerships : e.g., Adaptive learning - Knewton, and Arizona State University; Concierge Services - 2U and USC Learning Analytics Outsourcing the basics: e.g. Lynda.com Source: Eduventures analy 16

17 Emerging Solutions: Certificates Census data does not collect non-degree attainment information, which can obscure the role and wage premium of sub-degree credentials Certificate Attainment is Significant 21% 24% 11% 10% 12% 14% 8% Graduate Bachelor's Associate's Certificate Some College High School No High School Source: Certificates report (2012) from the Georgetown Center for Education and the Workforce, based on SIPP data. Proportions refer to the U.S. labor force in 2009 (not U.S. adults as a whole). 17

18 Emerging Solutions: Non-Credit Estimated 12-month headcount (2009) 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 The Formal Postsecondary Education Universe, Aged 18+-Estimated Scale (12 month headcount- 2009) c.0.7m c.0.8m c.1m c.1.5m c.1.5m c.2.9m c.7.5m c.8m c.11m c.12.9m c.35m c.50m Type Market Share For-Credit 18% Other Non-credit (NC) 66% Higher Education Non-credit (NC) 16% Sources: IPEDS, NCES and Eduventures analysis 18

19 Emerging Solutions: Stackable Credentials Mapping the value proposition of sub-degree and degree credentials to competencies recognized by industry can address time-cost barriers Source: 19

20 Emerging Solutions: Competency-Based Education Advancing students based on demonstration of skills and competencies rather than seat-time may help connect academics to employability 20

21 To Grow or To Enhance? Given the abundant supply of academic offerings, delivery options, and educational services in the market, quality must be the focus Current degree-centric higher education embodies high standards, enjoys social status, offers a significant wage premium, and is valuable as a sorting device for employers. But the model is sub-optimal: Costs are too high Value is ambiguous Benchmarks are weak for non-traditional student performance (retention, completion) Data does not exist for completions by age Strategic institutions develop program-level metrics, commit to enterpriselevel analytics, and foster cross-campus coordination to resolve gaps in service, performance, and knowledge-transfer Source: Eduventures analysis. 21

22 Enhancement Through Outcomes Collection Strategic institutions can operationalize what we currently know about non-traditional markets; this often requires some top-down investment 1. Creates better financial aid counseling and tools for non-traditional learners to improve retention 2. Improves career services resources for adult learners to support desirable outcomes Differentiation 3. Enhances regular alumni outreach processes and policies for outcomes collection and tracking 4. Strengthens student experience and satisfaction through cross-campus collaboration and shared focus 22

23 Enhancement Through Program Design and Delivery I got my Millennial MBA/MPH in Community Healthcare Organizational Leadership with a concentration in Global Innovation! Did you choose the blended cohort-based option or the self-paced online option with the Saturday weekly flipped classroom? 23

25 Market Opportunities Step 1a Healthy Program Assessment Step 2 Opportunity Assessment Step 3 Cost Assessment Step 4 Investment Reconciliation Program Roadmap Step 1b New Program Assessment 25

26 Market Opportunities The following indicators should be examined when exploring new program opportunities: Indicators Examined Scale Conferral & Provider CAGR Labor Demand (State) Supply to Demand (# of projected graduates vs. jobs) Barriers to Entry Institutional Fit 1 Small/ Declining (<1%) Slower than Average (<6%) Greater supply than demand or Both supply and demand are negative Large investments in capital, faculty, and accreditation Low/No current resources/assets and does not fit with mission/goals 2 Moderate (1-3%) Fast as Average (7-13%) Supply is roughly on par with demand Medium investments in capital, faculty, and accreditation Some current resources/assets and slightly fits with mission/goals 3 Large (3%<) Faster than Average (14%<) Demand is positive, and greater than supply Low investments in capital, faculty, and accreditation Strong alignment with current resources/assets and fits with mission/goals 26

27 Market Opportunities There are a number of ways to forecast enrollments, including based on Census data, IPEDS historical growth, and survey demand models Historical A historical data model that uses NCES IPEDS competitor data is particularly useful when launching programs that are new to NLU, but not niche or new to the greater Chicago market. Drawbacks to the historical approach include the lag in IPEDS conferral data as an indicator of the enrollments, as well as inaccuracies when estimating enrollments from conferrals. Survey Administering a survey can be particularly useful when NLU is thinking about launching a program that is new to the market or a niche program. Surveys can also give NLU insight into its brand perception in the market versus the leading degree conferrers. 27

28 Market Opportunities The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) collects data on enrollments, completions, finances, institutional prices, and more Every US higher education institution that participates in the federal student aid programs must report data to this system. This is usually fielded through Institutional Research (IR) offices. It is the best higher education data system available, however it is not completely accurate. Information provided by IPEDS is self-reported by institutions and therefore the data may not be perfectly aligned with data from institutional websites. Some institutions may categorize like programs under different codes. Some institutions my use four digit codes instead of the more specific six digit codes. Other data collected through IPEDS that you can map to conferral data: Institutional characteristics Institutional prices Enrollment Student financial aid Degrees and certificates conferred (Completion data) Student persistence and success Institutional resources 28

29 Program Development Ideas Regional - Illinois Conferrals Providers CAGR, Median, CAGR, Business Admin. ( Business Admin. & Mngmt., General) 5, % % Communications ( Communication & Media Studies) 2, % % Counseling Psych. ( Counseling Psych.) % % Entrepreneurship ( Entrepreneurial Studies) % 8 3 0% Finance ( Finance & Financial Mngmt. Services) 1, % % Forensic Mental Health ( Forensic Psych.) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Higher Ed Leadership ( Higher Ed/Higher Ed Admin.) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Hospitality Services Admin. ( Hospitality Admin./Mngmt.) % % Human Services Admin. ( Human Services, General) % % Marketing ( Marketing/Marketing Mngmt., General) 1, % % Medical Informatics ( Medical Informatics) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non-Profit Mngmt. ( Non-Profit/Public/Organizational Mngmt.) 12 N/A % Nursing Admin. ( Nursing Admin.) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Public Admin. ( Public Admin.) % % Public Health ( Public Health, General) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Retail/Sales Mngmt.( Retail Mngmt.) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Social Work ( Social Work) % % 29

30 Program Development Ideas Regional - Illinois Conferrals Providers CAGR, Median, CAGR, Business Admin. ( Business Admin. & Mngmt., General) 6, % % Communications ( Communication & Media Studies) % % Entrepreneurship ( Entrepreneurial Studies) % % Counseling Psych. ( Counseling Psych.) % % Finance ( Finance & Financial Mngmt. Services) % % Forensic Mental Health ( Forensic Psych.) % % Higher Ed Leadership ( Higher Ed/Higher Ed Admin.) % % Hospitality Services Admin. ( Hospitality Admin./Mngmt.) % % Human Services Admin. ( Human Services, General) % % ( Family & Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences, General) % % Marketing ( Marketing/Marketing Mngmt., General) % % Medical Informatics ( Medical Informatics) 91 N/A % Non-Profit Mngmt. ( Non-Profit/Public/Organizational Mngmt.) % Nursing Admin. ( Nursing Admin.) % % Public Admin. ( Public Admin.) % % Public Health ( Public Health, General) % % Retail/Sales Mngmt.( Retail Mngmt.) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Social Work ( Social Work) 1, % % 30

31 Possible Opportunities Regional - Illinois Conferrals Providers CAGR, Median, CAGR, Accounting & Related Services 1, % % Information Technology % % Human Resources Management & Services % % Taxation % % 31

32 Data was not available for the following programs: Alternative Education Licensure Program Charter School Leadership Child Advocacy College and Career Counseling Organizational Development Organizational Leadership Sustainability Management Teaching and Learning* Nursing Services* *Further information is needed in order to evaluate if aligning codes exist 32