All photos from WA Department of Ecology King Tide Photo Initiative Predicting the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Puget Sound Region Kristan Blackhart and Jon Medlin, University of Washington
Project Rationale Sea level rise (SLR) over the next 50 to 100 years could be on the order of inches to meters Information about the extent and potential effects is important for planning and management
Goals and Objectives Goal #1: Predict the general patterns of sea level rise (SLR) across the Puget Sound region Phase 1: Predict inundation impacts for a range of SLR scenarios Phase 2: Quantify a range of coastal variables to develop a coastal vulnerability index (CVI)
Goals and Objectives Goal #2: Develop a method for analyzing impacts at the county or city level Use Pierce County as a demonstration project Model inundation and a range of human-dimension impacts, including population, economics, ecological, and cultural impacts Develop a repeatable methodology for local-scale analysis of SLR impacts
Project Scope Scenario SLR Height Reasoning SLR13 13 Puget Sound Year 2100 very low estimate 1 SLR22 22 Puget Sound Year 2050 very high estimate 1 SLR38 38 Puget Sound Year 2100 medium estimate 1 SLR50 50 Puget Sound Year 2100 very high estimate 1 SLR197 197 (5m) Year 2100 global estimate 2 1 Mote et al. (2008) Sea level rise in the coastal waters of Washington State. 2 Hansen (2007) Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Multiple spatial scales Forward projecting time scale Variety of potential impact factors
Regional Analysis: Phase 1 Data Inputs: SLR estimates, plus DEM Tides Land Cover
Regional Methodology
Regional Results **Results are preliminary and give a broad picture of the areas most likely to be affected as a result of projected sea level rise. Data is intended to generally project flooding impacts and is not meant for use in identifying specific properties at risk due to sea level rise. The results reflected herein may be updated based on the availability of new data. Authors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no liability for the results of any actions taken or other information developed based on this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights.
Regional Results
Regional Results
Regional Results Distribution of Inundation Impacts by County Sea Level Rise (in inches above current) County 13" 22" 38" 50" 197" Clallam 1 539 1,027 1,448 1,789 3,967 Island 855 1,432 2,236 2,916 6,594 Jefferson 448 785 1,232 1,579 4,003 King 125 179 432 766 10,259 Kitsap 461 682 1,288 1,725 5,873 Mason 803 1,288 1,989 2,622 8,911 Pierce 445 694 989 1,252 12,774 San Juan 2 15 28 44 58 247 Skagit 3 2,172 10,716 15,292 17,050 33,827 Snohomish 4,712 5,780 9,411 10,705 26,875 Thurston 608 792 1,344 1,669 4,848 Total 11,183 23,403 35,703 42,132 118,179 1 The eastern portion of Clallam County was included in this analysis, but the western part (coastal areas of the western Strait of Juan de Fuca) was not. 2 Only a very small portion of the southern end of San Juan County was included in this analysis. 3 Northern portions of Skagit County were not included in this analysis.
Regional Results Southern Skagit County farmland
Regional Results Developed areas in Seattle
Regional Analysis: Next Steps Phase 2: Develop a CVI Model Geologic Variables Coastal geomorphology Historical shoreline change Coastal slope Physical Process Variables Relative sea level change Mean significant wave height Mean tidal range Thieler & Hammar-Klose (1999) USGS Open-File Report 99-593
Local Analysis
Modeling Inundation Extract values from DEM for ea. scenario
Results Anderson Island 13 22 DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides 15-25 show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
Results Anderson Island 38 50 DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides 15-25 show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
Results Anderson Island 197 DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides 15-25 show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
Results Port of Tacoma 13 22 DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides 15-25 show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
Results Port of Tacoma 38 50 DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides 15-25 show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
Results Port of Tacoma 197 DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides 15-25 show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
Modeling Impacts Land Cover Analysis Mask using SLR layer Similar process using Landuse layer
Impact, by Landuse Type Sea Level Rise Scenarios Landuse Classification Group (%) 13" 22" 38" 50" 197" Unknown 1 1 1 1 1 Residential 21 22 21 18 21 Commercial/Service 5 7 10 13 11 Industrial 7 9 14 20 23 Transportation, Communication, Utilities 6 7 9 10 10 Government Services 0 0 0 0 1 Public Facilities 0 0 0 0 1 Recreation 23 18 13 10 6 Agricultural 4 4 4 4 8 Undeveloped/Open Space 33 32 27 24 19 Residential land: ~20% of land lost at each rise Gradual increase in percentage of Industrial, Commercial, & Trans/Comm/Util classified land as SLR increases Undeveloped & Rec land > 50% of early SLR scenarios; only 25% of 197 SLR
Next Steps Model/Repeatable Process: Expand model to full project scope Refine inputs & tool choices Add user parameters Impact Analysis - Categories: Ecology, Infrastructure, Population, Culture Documentation
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