Ireland s Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2012 Environmental Protection Agency 9 th October 2013
Overview Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance
Highlights Total GHG emissions in 2012 are 57.92 Mt CO 2 eq, up 0.58 Mt CO 2 eq, 1.0% increase Greenhouse gas emissions decreased in: Residential, Transport and Waste sectors and increased in Energy, Industry & Commercial and Agriculture sectors Energy emissions are up 0.71 Mt CO 2 eq a 5.9% increase, reflecting an increase in the use of coal for electricity generation Residential emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO 2 eq a 5.9% reduction, due to higher than average temperatures in 2012 Industry & Commercial emissions are up 0.13 Mt CO 2 eq a 1.5% increase Transport emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO 2 eq a 3.5% reduction Agriculture emissions are 3.0% higher in 2012, due to increases in cattle and sheep numbers Waste emissions are 2.7% lower in 2012, due to increase in utilisation and flaring of landfill gas Based on the current inventory, Ireland is 0.80 million tonnes below the Kyoto Protocol target, when the impact of EU ETS and Forest Sinks are taken into account
Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sources Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste Sinks Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation Gases CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6
Overview Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance
Mt CO 2 Equivalent GHG emissions 1990-2012 (excluding LULUCF) 80 70-3.5% 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste Overall emissions in 2012 are up 4.8% on 1990 levels
Mt CO 2 eq. Interannual Change in GHG Emissions 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00-1.00-2.00 2.80 2.07 1.91 1.97 1.46 1.51 0.78 1.14 0.93 1.32 0.37 0.58 0.07-0.01-0.34-0.40-0.86-0.35-0.35-1.91-3.00-4.00-5.00-4.26-6.00-5.76-7.00 Inter annual change
GHG emissions 1990 and 2012 Transport 9.3% Waste 2.5% Energy 20.6% Transport 18.8% Waste 1.8% Energy 21.9% Agriculture 36.9% Residential 13.5% Residential 10.7% 55.25 Mt CO 2 eq. Industry & Commercial 17.3% Agriculture 32.1% 57.92 Mt CO 2 eq. 1990 2012 Industry & Commercial 14.7%
Mt of CO 2 eq. GHG emissions 1990-2012 by Sector 25 20 15 10 5 0 Agriculture Energy Transport Industry & Commercial Residential Waste
Mt CO 2 eq Energy GHG emissions 1990-2012 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Power Generation Oil Refining / Solid Fuel Manufacture Fugitive Overall emissions in 2012 are 11.3% up on 1990 levels
Mt CO 2 eq Energy GHG emissions 1990-2012 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Power Generation Oil Refining / Solid Fuel Manufacture Fugitive Emissions in 2012 are just above 1993 levels
Mt CO 2 eq Residential GHG emissions 1990-2012 9.0 8.0 7.0 0.6% -11.2% -0.7% -2.5% -0.6% 1.9% -5.1% 8.2% -5.3% 1.3% 4.2% -1.1% 2.3% 2.7% 4.0% -1.6% -3.2% 8.6% -0.8% 4.8% -15.5% -5.9% 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Gaseous Fuels Biomass Fuels Emissions in 2012 are 16.9% below 1990 levels
Mt CO 2 eq Industry and Commercial 1990-2012 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Manufacturing & Construction Industrial Processes Commercial Services Solvents 'F' Gases Overall emissions in 2012 are 10.6% down on 1990 levels
Mt CO 2 eq EU-ETS Emissions 2005-2012 25.0 20.0 15.0-3.1% -2.1% -3.9% -15.6% 0.8% Cement emissions up 17.6% -9.2% 6.9% Power generation emissions up 6.4% 10.0 5.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Power Generation Oil Refining & Solid Fuel Manufacture Non-ferrous Metals Food Processing Cement Other Power Cement Overall generation ETS sector emissions emissions in 2012 in in 2012 are are 24.7% are 53.1% 19.8% down down on on 2005 on 2005 levels levels
Mt CO 2 eq Transport GHG emissions 1990-2012 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Road Transport Railways Domestic Civil Aviation Domestic Navigation Gas Transmission Overall emissions in 2012 are 113% up on 1990 levels
Mt CO 2 eq Agriculture GHG emissions 1990-2012 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Fuel Combustion Enteric Fermentation Manure Management Agricultural Soils Overall emissions in 2012 are 8.6% down on 1990 levels
Mt CO 2 eq Waste GHG emissions 1990-2012 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Landfill WasteWater Incineration Overall emissions in 2012 are 26.1% down on 1990 levels
Overview Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance
Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 GHG emissions and GDP Power Generation Transport Residential Agriculture Waste
Index 1990=100 GHG emissions and GDP (relative trend) 300 260 GDP 261 220 180 140 100 GHG 105 60 20 Greenhouse gas emissions GDP, constant prices
Population (000s) Tonne of GHG/capita GHG Emissions/Capita Ireland 1990-2012 4600 4400 18.2 tonnes/capita 20 19 18 4200 4000 3800 3600 15.8 tonnes/capita 17 16 15 14 13 3400 3200 Population Tonne of GHG/capita 12.6 tonnes/capita 12 11 10
Tonnes GHG/capita GHG Emissions/Capita for all EU/EEA Member States in 2011 25 20 15 Ireland 12.6 10 EU 15 9.1 5 0 CO2 CH4 N2O F-Gases
Tonnes GHG/capita GHG Emissions/Capita for all UNFCCC Annex I Parties in 2011 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 Ireland 12.6 10.0 EU 15 9.1 5.0 0.0
Index 1990=100 Power Generation CO 2 and Electricity Total Final Consumption (relative trend) 250 230 Electricity TFC 205 210 190 170 150 130 Power generation 112 110 90 70 50 Power Generation CO2 (Gg) Electricity Total Available Final Consumption GWh
Fuel Consumption, TJ Drivers in Transport Fuel consumption 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Gasoline Diesel LPG Fuel Oil Kerosene (Civil Aviation) Biofuels
Index 1990=100 Drivers in Transport Vehicle numbers (relative trend) 300 250 236 200 216 150 100 50 0 Cars Commercial vehicles
Vehicle numbers Drivers in Transport Passenger Cars 2500000 2000000 Diesel cars 30.1% 1500000 1000000 Diesel cars 9.4% 500000 0 Gasoline cars Diesel cars
Drivers for Residential Sector 1,800,000 1.65M households 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 1.01M households 0 No. of Households Household numbers are up 64% since 1990
Fuel Use, TJ Mt CO2eq Drivers for Residential Sector 140000 120000 100000 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Liquid & Gas fuels +198% Solid fuels -66% Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Renewables CO2 eq emissions from Residential Sector Overall emissions in 2012 are 16.9% down on 1990 levels 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
Index 1990=100 Drivers in Agriculture Livestock population (relative trend) 160 140 Pigs 125 120 100 80 60 40 Dairy Cattle Other Cattle Sheep Fertilizer N Pigs Other Cattle 102 Dairy Cattle 82 Fertiliser 78 Sheep 60
Tonnes of Waste Drivers for Waste Sector 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 Waste generated 500000 0
Tonnes of Waste Drivers for Waste Sector 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 Waste sent to Landfill 500000 0
CH 4 emissions from waste solid waste disposal on land 130 120 110 100 82.5 Gg 90 Mt of CH 4 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CH4 Flaring CH4 Utilisation CH4 Generation CH4 Emissions Flaring and utilisation increased by 2% between 2011 and 2012
Overview Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance
Implications for Kyoto Compliance Mt CO 2 eq 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008-2012 Total National Emissions 67.72 61.95 61.61 57.34 57.92 306.54 Less Verified Emissions for ETS 20.38 17.22 17.36 15.77 16.85 87.58 Total Non-ETS Emissions 47.34 44.73 44.25 41.58 41.07 218.96 Kyoto Limit 62.84 62.84 62.84 62.84 62.84 314.19 Less ETS Allocation 22.28* 22.28* 22.28* 22.28* 22.28* 111.40 Total Non-ETS Limit 40.56 40.56 40.56 40.56 40.56 202.79 Distance above Kyoto limit after five years of Kyoto Protocol period (excluding forest sinks) 6.78 4.18 3.69 1.02 0.51 218.96 202.79 = 16.18 Forest sinks -3.20-3.39-3.42-3.57-3.40-16.98 Distance above Kyoto limit after five years of Kyoto Protocol period (including forest sinks) 3.57 0.78 0.27-2.55-2.89-0.80
Implications for Kyoto Compliance Kyoto Protocol Limit 314.18 Mtonnes of CO 2 e for the period 2008 2012 62.84 Mtonnes of CO 2 e per annum For ETS sectors Allocation of 22.28 million allowances per annum 2008-2012 For non-ets sectors 62.84 22.28 = 40.56 Mtonnes of CO 2 e per annum - the effective target for Ireland Compare 40.56 Mtonnes of CO 2 e with actual non-ets sector emissions for 2008 to 2012 and take into account forest sinks Based on 2008 to 2012 emissions, compliance with Kyoto Protocol by 0.80 Mtonnes of CO 2 e
Highlights Total GHG emissions in 2012 are 57.92 Mt CO 2 eq, up 0.58 Mt CO 2 eq, 1.0% increase Greenhouse gas emissions decreased in: Residential, Transport and Waste sectors and increased in Energy, Industry & Commercial and Agriculture sectors Energy emissions are up 0.71 Mt CO 2 eq a 5.9% increase, reflecting an increase in the use of coal for electricity generation Residential emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO 2 eq a 5.9% reduction, due to higher than average temperatures in 2012 Industry & Commercial emissions are up 0.13 Mt CO 2 eq a 1.5% increase Transport emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO 2 eq a 3.5% reduction Agriculture emissions are 3.0% higher in 2012, due to increases in cattle and sheep numbers Waste emissions are 2.7% lower in 2012, due to increase in utilisation and flaring of landfill gas Based on the current inventory, Ireland is 0.80 million tonnes below the Kyoto Protocol target, when the impact of EU ETS and Forest Sinks are taken into account
Mt CO 2 eq Where we need to go under the EU Effort Sharing Decision [406/2009/EC] 80 70 60 50 40 45.4 Mt -20% 37.5 Mt 30 20 10 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Non ETS Emissions ETS Emissions