Alternative Finance for SMEs and Mid-Market Companies Brussels Presentation 27th November, 2013
Agenda Introduction Backdrop: bank lending to companies in Germany, France, UK, Italy and Spain Policymakers increasingly interested in alternative finance Review of each of the key alternative finance markets Looking forward: opportunities for action to stimulate alternative finance Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 1
Alternative finance for SMEs and Mid-market companies (MMs) Objective of the report is to suggest ways to stimulate development of alternative finance as a complement to constrained bank lending Alternative finance takes several forms Private placements (direct lending to MMs by insurance companies for longer term loans) Securitisation (bundling together of loans from a bank into securities which are sold to institutional investors) Retail bonds and/or peer to peer lending (lending by private individuals to companies) Leasing and invoice discounting Alternative in the sense that these are alternatives to traditional bank lending Scope is SMEs and MMs (together represent the great majority of European economy) SMEs up to 30 m in turnover MMs up to 1.0 bn in turnover Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 2
Research methodology Interviewed a spectrum of key stakeholders (45 interviews) Banks, investment banks, and institutional investors (UK, France, Germany, USA) UK Government departments and regulators (HMT, BIS, PRA, FCA) EU institutions (EC, EIB, EIF) Reviewed relevant literature (e.g. EC Green Paper on Long Term Development) In depth analysis of each of the alternative finance markets Pre and post crisis and looking forward Identifying potential for each type of alternative finance to provide significant new funding for SMEs and/or MMs Looked at UK, but also France, Germany, and USA to provide comparisons and lessons learned Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 3
SMEs and MMs together account for majority of companies, employment, value added, and GDP in Europe Europe SMEs % Share Big 4 MMs % Share 99.8% 66% 58% 32.6% 32.3% 1.5% Companies Employees Value Added at factor cost Companies Employees GDP All other companies SMEs All other companies Mid-Market Source: Eurostat, GE Capital Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 4
The problem: continuously decreasing SME lending volumes in Europe Changes in lending volume growth % change on previous year a. UK b. France % change on previous year 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 20 2013 2014-10% % change on previous year PNFC SMEs 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 20 2013 2014 c. Germany d. Italy e. Spain % change on previous year -10% % change on previous year PNFC SMEs 25% 20% PNFC 25% 20% PNFC 25% 20% PNFC 15% 15% 15% 10% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5% 0% -5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 20 2013 2014 0% -5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 20 2013 2014 0% -5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 20 2013 2014-10% -10% -10% -15% Source: Bank of England, ECB, Banque de France, Deutsche Bundesbank, Ares & Co analysis -20% Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 5
UK SME lending has shown steady contraction Monthly changes of loans to SMEs ( m) 500 0 244 134-500 -1,000-1,031-477 -448-761 -304-459 -559-448 -373-250 -431-780 -262-225 -383-343 -286-648 -1,500 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- 13 Feb- 13 Mar- 13 Apr- 13 May- 13 Jun- 13 Jul-13 Aug- 13 Constrained/declining bank lending has led to strong interest in alternative finance amongst policymakers as complement to bank lending Source: BoE Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 6
Banks traditional lending accounts for 80% of SME funding Data at end 20 unless otherwise stated UK France Traditional bank lending Loans: 88bn ( 107bn) for SMEs 406bn ( 496bn) for PNFC 1 Overdrafts: bn ( 14bn) for SMEs N/A for PNFC Loans: 188bn for SMEs 777bn for PNFC Overdrafts: 9.3bn for SMEs 3 N/A for PNFC Debt financing Sales finance (factoring) 10.3bn (.6bn) for SMEs 2 6.5bn for SMEs 3 27.3bn for PNFC Asset finance (leasing) 11.7bn ( 14.2bn) for SME 3 24bn Trade and supplier finance 5.0bn ( 5.bn) 4 5.2bn 5 Traditional bank lend. as % of total 78% 85% Bank lending as % of total 94% 96% 1. Data for Dec 2011 2. estimate for SME 3. Data for Dec 2011 4. Data for Dec 2010 5. Data for Sep 2011 Source: Bank of England, ABFA; Banque de France; BBA; ECB; FLA; Ares & Co analysis Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 7
European heavy dependence on bank lending is a financial stability risk. Alternative finance reduces this risk Bank assets on balance sheet (% GDP) Bank lending as a % of external Long Term Funding 366% 81% 78% 19% EU US EU US Striking prevalence of bank lending in Europe versus USA which has more highly developed capital markets Source: LSEG, IMF and UN 20, McKinsey Global Institute and Group of Thirty (2013) Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 8
New prudential regulation will cause banks to lessen long term lending. Critical role for alternative finance providers to fill funding gap Prudential regulation effect on long-term lending Required bank LT asset reduction from capital and liquidity regulations Basel 3 means more capital for longer term loans Because of liquidity and market risks in long term lending Project Finance LBO Acquisition finance 900bn Aviation Shipping NPL Net Stable Funding Ratio makes it more difficult for banks to fund long term lending Real estate Widely shared view that banks will lessen their Corp. PV debt commitment to long term lending in UK and Europe EU Alternative finance providers (insurance companies) are well placed to finance longer term debt because of their matching longer term liabilities Source: Oliver Wyman: The 200 billion opportunity (20) Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 9
Private placements (key form of alternative finance for mid-market companies) large and growing strongly outside UK Private placements (PP): term lending (five years plus) typically by insurers on fixed rate basis for midmarket companies and larger PP volumes are meaningful in size $54bn in USA 14bn in Germany Soc Gen believe half of French MM financing could come from PPs in future PP growing strongly in Germany, France, USA Schuldshein market (Germany) doubled in size since 2009 35 PPs in France in last year USA PP market also doubled since 2009 German and US PP markets are also attracting foreign companies seeking finance 40% of US PP volume to foreign companies (half of this accounted for by UK companies) 36% of Schuldshein is for foreign companies UK PP market comparatively under developed Little track record of PPs so hard to jump start a market No standardised documentation, processes, or credit ratings Need for commitment and concerted effort Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 10
Securitisation has historically mobilised large amounts of SME finance in Europe Main/only vehicle by which large amounts of capital market finance can be deployed into SME lending 73 bn of SME securitisation in Europe in 2007 Primarily in Spain and Italy historically Senior policymakers urging restart of these markets to assist SMEs SME securitisation markets are largely blocked at present, however Abundant cheap liquidity from central banks removes banks incentive to securitise Uncertain regulatory situation causing many players to stay on sidelines Many investors are wary of SME securitisations Time is necessary for these markets to heal. Policymakers could help revive them by Ensuring regulatory level playing field between bank lending and securitisation Continuing development of guarantees/credit enhancement such as EIF schemes Incentives for SME bank lending such as UK s FLS should be matched by incentives for securitisation Encourage homogeneity of SME loans to make them easier to securitise Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 11
Whole loan conduits as a way forward: no slicing and dicing Considerable discussion of whole loan conduits Aggregation of whole loans into vehicles from which insurers may take loans that are not tranched Avoids negative aspects of securitisation (tranching: slicing and dicing) Responsive to investors desire for simplicity and transparency Much simpler for regulatory purposes French Fonds Communs de Titrisation (FCT): the Novo Fund 18 French insurers and 3 commercial banks Two fund managers (BNPP and Tikehau) Fund managers source loans from participating banks into Novo Fund No tranches Insurance companies buy a pro rata share of the loans in the fund Strongly supported/led by French government, rewrite of certain regulations to make possible for investors Term lending to mid-size French companies Initially 1bn, French Government saying potentially as much as 90bn available Fund managers provide servicing as well as credit analysis and monitoring over time to all purchasers from fund AXA partnerships with Soc Gen, Crédit Agricole, Commerzbank Loan conduit, whole loans, originated and passed over from partner bank to AXA, no tranches Term lending, 5 years plus Banks retain interest in each loan, service and monitor credit Material volumes Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company
Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending and retail bonds: lending by retail investors to companies P2P lending to companies UK industry leader facilitated 4m of lending ( 150m) in 20 US and Europe outstanding P2P volume: $2.7bn (72% in the US and 26% in Europe) German retail bonds: Bond M of Stuttgart stock exchange Launched in 2010 and growing rapidly Total outstanding volume: 4bn from 100 issues Issuers are German Mittelstands (MM) and larger (not SMEs) High profile defaults of several issuers UK retail bonds: the London Stock Exchange s Order book for Retail Bonds (ORB) Launched in 2010 and growing quickly Total volume issued so far: 3.4bn Strong focus on issuer quality to safeguard retail investors: most issuers so far large rated companies as a result Yet to develop as a major source of funding for MMs France s IBO: negligible volume Success of retail bonds for SMEs/MMs will depend on cracking the investor protection issue Lending to smaller unrated companies is inherently risky Mitigating these risks for unsophisticated retail investors is a key concern Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 13
Availability of credit information is a key enabler for alternative finance Alternative finance discussed today involves lending or debt financing by non-banks Alternative finance providers need to make credit decisions just as banks do Banks are currently better positioned to make credit decisions than alternative finance providers Banks have the necessary credit information and the necessary skills to analyse the information This explains the interest in credit information warehouses or credit registers in many parts of Europe: it is a key support to alternative finance providers Access to high quality credit information for non-banks Open architecture to permit wide access There is also a need for providers of credit analysis skills to emerge to assist alternative finance S&P s new MM service Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 14
Opportunities for action to stimulate alternative finance Facilitate and encourage efforts to increase PP lending to MM companies Especially UK, engage market participants in constructive discussion to generate commitment Remove blockages e.g. lack of standardised documentation for PPs in London Continue strong efforts to restart SME securitisation (credit enhancement, proportionate regulation) Similarly, encourage dialogue towards creation of loan conduits between banks and insurers Until securitisation markets reopen this is a way forward for alternative finance/securitisation for MMs Work to ensure a level playing field between bank lending and alternative finance/securitisation Regulatory treatment of securitisation versus bank lending Central bank support for bank lending should be matched by support for alternative finance Support efforts to create credit information registers and exchanges, and the growth of credit analysis providers in the SME and MM space Alternative Finance for SMEs and MMs Strictly confidential - Ares & Company 15