Automotive 4.0 Outlook and Implications TRAN hearing on "Towards a European Road Safety Area" Sebastian Feldmann Partner - Roland Berger GmbH Brussels, February 16 th 2016
Contents Page A. Roland Berger at a glance 3 B. Driving assistance development and regulatory key aspects to secure European competitiveness for Automotive 4.0 10 C. Short CV: Sebastian Feldmann 13 This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from. Roland Berger 2
A. Roland Berger at a glance 3
Roland Berger is a truly global and fully independent firm, founded upon a European heritage and solely owned by our partners Our profile Founded in 1967 in Germany by Roland Berger 50 offices in 36 countries, with around 2,400 employees Nearly 220 RB Partners currently serving ~1,000 international clients Source: Roland Berger 4
Industry Automotive Chemicals & Pharma Cons. Goods & Retail Civil Economics & Infrastructure Eng. Products & High Tech Financial Services TMT Transportation Energy & Utilities For each individual project, we set up teams whose members have various competencies and develop customized solutions Our competence matrix Function Digital Operations Private Equity Restructuring & Corporate Finance Strategy Leadership & Transformation Source: Roland Berger 5
THINK ACT, our international client magazine, is an award-winning read for global top decision makers to form an independent opinion Excellence at Roland Berger Thought leadership We > Demonstrate thought leadership to 20,000 top decision makers worldwide > Have won several "Best of Corporate Publishing" awards, as well as international design awards in the U.S. Source: Roland Berger 6
The Roland Berger Automotive Competence Center is a THOUGHT LEADER and regularly delivers landmark studies Publications and studies ACC Insights > The Automotive Competence Center's client magazine > Going out to topmatch decision makers in the automotive business globally > Three to four publications per year > Circulation of around 3,500 copies per issue Recent studies & articles in 2015 (selection) Automated vehicles Index Q2 2015 > Presentation of competitive positions of world s leading automotive nations > Illustration of necessary against prevailing legal framework On the road toward the autonomous truck > Functional demands on OEM s and Suppliers in the development of truck automation until 2025 > Identification of major technical and legal challenges Automotive 4.0 - A disruption and new reality in the US? > Identification of major, potentially disruptive trends > Illustration and quantification of various scenarios and their impacts on the automotive industry Global Automotive Supplier Study 2014 > Assessment of current situation, success factors and future challenges > Recommendations of short and long term actions for automotive suppliers Source: Roland Berger 7
Spotlight: we regularly contribute publications on automated vehicles, also to support European car industry competitiveness Roland Berger studies: recent examples for automated car and truck / Automotive 4.0 Automated Vehicles index published by fka and Roland Berger: Analysis of the competitive position of the relevant automotive nations (Germany, US, China, Sweden, the UK, South Korea, France, Italy and Japan) Autonomous driving: Disruptive innovation that promises to change the automotive industry as we know it it s time for every player to think:act! On the road toward the autonomous truck: Opportunities for OEMs and suppliers Source: Roland Berger 8
Our independent and deep expertise is sought after by INTERNATIONAL PRESS AND MEDIA Source: Press, Roland Berger 9
B. Driving assistance development and regulatory key aspects to secure European competitiveness for Automotive 4.0 10
Market- and customer- as well as megatrends promote a rapid change within the automotive and mobility industry Influences on penetration speed of automated driving Market- and customer-trends Enhanced interconnectedness > People, vehicles and infrastructure are increasingly connected (e.g. by real-time data, smartphones) Altered consumer behavior Soaring individuality > People use and share > Niche segments (also instead of own (sharing vehicles!) arise economy) > People strive for > Increasing trust in autonomy and their "automation" capabilities "personal journey" Increasing demand for convenience > People face more time pressure, while having higher comfort expectations Diminishing boundaries > New players do enter established markets > Markets increasingly tend to cooperate > HW and SW merge Opportunities in the Mobility Sector Globalization and Glo-Calization Urbanization and growth of megacities Demographic change Scarcity of resources and climate change Technological progress Megatrends Source: Roland Berger 11
Our recent study displays that automated mobility already becomes a huge market; current mobility service solutions are mostly replaced Value-add by elements of the US mobility market 1) [USD bn] Today Auto 4.0 113 8 1 23-8 8-14 14 14-1 Taxi and limo 2) Rental car Car/ride sharing 3) Mobility-on-demand service 1) Considers only value-add items; does not include fuel, depreciation, insurance, parking etc.; 2) Maintenance is not included; 3) Based on 2013 figures of Zipcar, Uber, Car2Go, DriveNow, Lyft, Sidecar, etc. Source: Press articles, annual reports, US Census, NHTSA, FHWA, IHS, AAA, NADA, Automotive Fleet, SBD, Roland Berger 12
Availability of functions (mass production) German automotive OEMs have the most extensive range of partially automated driving functions across all segments Roland Berger AV Index Activities of national OEMs OEM activities High Medium Country High availability of partially automated driving functions in different model series produced by German premium and mass-market OEMs Tesla is currently the leading US vendor to offer partially automated systems in mass-produced vehicles (Tesla Model S) Japanese OEMs currently sell partially automated driver assistance systems mainly via their premium brands (Lexus, Infiniti) Low Low Medium High Volvo has a strong focus on safety systems and also offers partially automated driving functions in selected vehicles State of development (mass production and prototypes) Source: fka; Roland Berger 13
Market indicates that first level 3 systems should be available by 2017 Level 4 is expected to be launched starting from 2020 Launch horizon for automated driving functions ~2013 ~2014 ~2015 ~2016 ~2017 ~2018 ~2019 ~2020 ~2025 >2025 Driving Lane change assistant Intersection assistant City pilot Traffic jam assist Highway pilot Exit2Exit Lane departure warning Traffic jam pilot Fully automated driving Parking Parking assistant (steering only) "Parking with app" Valet parking Safety Construction area assist Emergency cut-off Emergency steering assistant Emergency braking assistant and pedestrian detection Level 3 Level 4 Source: Press research; conference papers; Bosch; Roland Berger 14
Key blockers are e.g. limiting ECE regulations need to define world-wide technical standards securing European competiveness Key legislative levers for enabling Auto 4.0 and increasing road safety Vehicle registration > Current registration processes favors the US position: While in Germany, the authorization of automated vehicles is not explicitly prohibited (as testing vehicles). In Nevada and other states of the USA, public road operation of these vehicles is explicitly allowed. Action fields Impact on road safety Low High ECE regulation > In the US, ECE regulations were replaced by own regulations (Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard): for instance ECE R79 (automatic steering function) is seen as main show stopper on EU level Security & accident avoidance > Although no. of car accidents and also their fatalness will decrease with further technology, it is important to support a safe and reliable introduction of in-car data loggers / black boxes as proposed by NHTSA as a mandatory requirement in Europe Data privacy protection > In order to support personal data autonomy, required in-car data logger should store data according to agreed European and world-wide data collection standards Liability > Administration, associations and insurances should define homogeneous European standards together with the industry to build confidence of consumers but also protect manufacturers Low Low Low Low High High High High EU also needs to closely watch other regulatory developments, like e.g. C-t-C / C-t-I communication in the US Very important Less important Source: Roland Berger 15
C. Short CV Sebastian Feldmann 16
Sebastian Feldmann Position: Partner Education Office: Munich Professional Experience Nationality: German Key Projects 1997-2001 WHU, Otto Beisheim School of Management (Germany) diploma in economics and business administration (Diplom-Kaufmann, MBA) 1999-2000 J. L. Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto (Canada) - MBA 1999 Kobe University, Faculty of Business Administration (Japan) - MBA since 2015 Roland Berger GmbH 2010-2014 PwC Management Consulting (until 2012: PRTM Management Consultants GmbH) 2005-2010 Ricardo Strategic Consulting GmbH 2001-2005 A.T. Kearney GmbH > Several business strategy / definition / implementation projects for leading players in the Automotive and Industrial Machinery industries > Strategy development for the Used Truck business unit of a German OEM, implementation of global business and profitability steering mechanisms > Global supply chain and operations transformation program for a leading mining equipment OEM > Product development enhancement, Innovation management, and standardization & cost-down program for a global leading vehicle OEM > Digitization and business model transformation for a leading automotive component supplier Languages > German (mother tongue) > English (fluent) > Portuguese (advanced) > French (basic) > Japanese (basic) Industry skills > Automotive (especially Passenger Car and Commercial Vehicle OEMs) > Engineered Products and High-Tech > Rail (Vehicle OEMs) > Aerospace Methodological skills > Innovation & Business Model transformation > Service Excellence and Automotive 4.0 > Operations and Supply Chain Excellence and transformation Source: Roland Berger 17
Technically spoken: for nearly every problem there is a solution, now mainly validation/testing and legal frameworks are the limitation Contact Sebastian Feldmann Partner Roland Berger GmbH Sederanger 1 80538 München Germany Phone +49 89 9230 8317 Mobile +49 160 744 8317 sebastian.feldmann@rolandberger.com Source: Roland Berger 18