The Dog Ate My Home On Behalf of Carroll County By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. March 21, 2012
Penny wise, Euro foolish
Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2013* Source: International Monetary Fund *2012-2013 data are projections
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2008 % Change 3 London SE FTSE 100-31.3% 1 NYSE Group DJI A -33.8% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -34.2% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -35.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -39.6% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -40.0% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -40.2% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225-41.5% 5 Euronext CAC 40-42.6% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -47.9% 10 Borsa Italiana MIBTel -48.5% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -65.4% Source: Yahoo! Finance
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2009 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2009 % Change 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite 77.2% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 51.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 43.7% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 31.2% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 29.9% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.8% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General 26.7% 3 London SE FTSE 100 22.1% 5 Euronext CAC 40 21.5% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB 19.5% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 18.4% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 16.6% Source: Yahoo! Finance
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2010 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2010 % Change 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 16.9% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 16.1% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 14.4% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 11.0% 3 London SE FTSE 100 9.0% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 5.3% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -1.7% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225-3.0% 5 Euronext CAC 40-3.3% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB -13.2% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -14.3% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -19.2% Source: Yahoo! Finance
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 YTD Growth through Third Quarter Rank Exchange Index % Change 1 NYSE Group DJI A -5.7% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -9.0% 3 London SE FTSE 100-13.1% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -13.5% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -14.0% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -14.1% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225-14.9% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -16.0% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -20.4% 5 Euronext CAC 40-21.6% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -23.6% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB -26.5% Source: Yahoo! Finance
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth Rank Exchange Index % Change 1 NYSE Group DJI A 5.5% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -1.8% 3 London SE FTSE 100-5.6% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -7.8% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -9.2% 8 Bolsa De Medrid IGBM -14.6% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -14.7% 5 Euronext CAC 40-17.0% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225-17.3% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -20.0% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -21.7% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB -25.2% Source: Yahoo! Finance
All dressed up with no place to go
Recession Watch as of May 2009 Source: Moody s Economy
Industrial Production January 2001 through January 2012 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2011Q4 2011Q4: 3.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Recession Watch as of April 2010 Source: Moody s Economy
Recession Watch as of December 2011 Source: Moody s Economy
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2001 through February 2012 Between February 2011 and February 2012, the nation gained 2,021,000 jobs. 2/12: +227K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups February 2011 v. February 2012 All told 2,021K Jobs Gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) January 2011 v. January 2012 Absolute Change MD Total: +39.8K; +1.6% US Total: +2,014K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) January 2012 v. January 2011 Percent Change Rank State % Rank State % Rank State % 1 NORTH DAKOTA 5.67% 16 IDAHO 1.32% 34 MAINE 0.66% 2 UTAH 2.48% 19 ARIZONA 1.32% 36 PENNSYLVANIA 0.66% 3 TEXAS 2.47% 19 NEW JERSEY 1.31% 36 IOWA 0.62% 4 WEST VIRGINIA 2.36% 19 NORTH CAROLINA 1.30% 38 OREGON 0.61% 5 LOUISIANA 2.17% 22 OHIO 1.23% 38 ILLINOIS 0.52% 6 TENNESSEE 2.12% 23 KANSAS 1.23% 40 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.42% 7 GEORGIA 2.09% 24 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.22% 40 MASSACHUSETTS 0.38% 8 COLORADO 1.94% 25 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.20% 42 ARKANSAS 0.37% 9 OKLAHOMA 1.93% 26 VIRGINIA 1.12% 43 NEBRASKA 0.36% 10 NEW YORK 1.62% 26 WYOMING 1.09% 44 DELAWARE 0.17% 11 MICHIGAN 1.57% 28 CALIFORNIA 0.90% 45 MONTANA 0.14% 11 MARYLAND 1.57% 29 VERMONT 0.87% 46 ALABAMA -0.10% 13 KENTUCKY 1.56% 29 NEW MEXICO 0.80% 46 MISSOURI -0.15% 13 WASHINGTON 1.52% 31 NEVADA 0.80% 48 MISSISSIPPI -0.27% 13 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.47% 32 FLORIDA 0.75% 49 ALASKA -0.27% 16 INDIANA 1.37% 33 HAWAII 0.75% 49 RHODE ISLAND -0.28% 16 MINNESOTA 1.34% 34 CONNECTICUT 0.74% 51 WISCONSIN -0.46% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.5%
Baltimore Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) January 2011 v. January 2012 Absolute Change Baltimore Total: +21.2K; +1.7% MD Total: +39.8K; +1.6% US Total: +2,014K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Washington, DC Arlington Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) January 2011 v. January 2012 Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +20.2K; +0.7% US Total: +2,014K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) January 2012 Rank State Rate Rank State Rate Rank State Rate 1 NORTH DAKOTA 3.2% 16 WISCONSIN 6.9% 34 WASHINGTON 8.3% 2 NEBRASKA 4.0% 19 DELAWARE 7.0% 36 ARIZONA 8.7% 3 SOUTH DAKOTA 4.2% 19 MAINE 7.0% 36 INDIANA 8.7% 4 VERMONT 5.0% 19 NEW MEXICO 7.0% 38 KENTUCKY 8.8% 5 NEW HAMPSHIRE 5.2% 22 ALASKA 7.2% 38 OREGON 8.8% 6 IOWA 5.4% 23 TEXAS 7.3% 40 MICHIGAN 9.0% 7 WYOMING 5.5% 24 WEST VIRGINIA 7.4% 40 NEW JERSEY 9.0% 8 MINNESOTA 5.6% 25 MISSOURI 7.5% 42 GEORGIA 9.2% 9 UTAH 5.7% 26 ARKANSAS 7.6% 43 SOUTH CAROLINA 9.3% 10 VIRGINIA 5.8% 26 PENNSYLVANIA 7.6% 44 ILLINOIS 9.4% 11 KANSAS 6.1% 28 OHIO 7.7% 45 FLORIDA 9.6% 11 OKLAHOMA 6.1% 29 ALABAMA 7.8% 46 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 9.9% 13 HAWAII 6.5% 29 COLORADO 7.8% 46 MISSISSIPPI 9.9% 13 MARYLAND 6.5% 31 CONNECTICUT 8.0% 48 NORTH CAROLINA 10.2% 13 MONTANA 6.5% 32 IDAHO 8.1% 49 CALIFORNIA 10.9% 16 LOUISIANA 6.9% 33 TENNESSEE 8.2% 49 RHODE ISLAND 10.9% 16 MASSACHUSETTS 6.9% 34 NEW YORK 8.3% 51 NEVADA 12.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: January 12= 8.3%
Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros (NSA) December 2011 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN- New York-Northern New Jersey- 1 WI 5.5 11 Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 8.2 1 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5.5 12 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 8.5 3 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 5.8 13 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 8.9 4 Baltimore-Towson, MD 6.8 14 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN- WI 9.3 4 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 6.8 15 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 9.4 6 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 7.1 16 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 9.6 7 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 7.3 17 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 9.7 8 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 7.8 18 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- 9 NJ-DE-MD 7.9 19 9 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 7.9 20 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 10.0 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 10.6 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 12.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
MD County Unemployment Rates December 2011 Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Howard County 4.7 13 Kent County 7.0 2 Montgomery County 4.8 14 Garrett County 7.2 3 Calvert County 5.1 15 Talbot County 7.3 4 Saint Mary s County 5.2 16 Allegany County 8.3 5 Charles County 5.4 16 Caroline County 8.3 5 Frederick County 5.4 16 Cecil County 8.3 7 Carroll County 5.6 19 Washington County 8.5 8 Anne Arundel County 5.8 20 Somerset County 8.6 9 Harford County 6.3 20 Wicomico County 8.6 10 Prince George's County 6.5 22 Baltimore City 9.3 10 Queen Anne s County 6.5 23 Dorchester County 10.2 12 Baltimore County 6.9 24 Worcester County 15.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Carroll County Unemployment Rate (NSA) January 2001 through December 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Carroll County Employment Net Change (NSA) January 2001 through December 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
It could be worse, right??
15 Year & 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through January 2012 Source: Freddie Mac
U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through January 2012 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau
U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through February 2012 Source: Economy.com
Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction February 2011 v. February 2012 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Feb. 11: 11.2 months; Feb. 12: 8.2 months
Housing Inventory by Suburban MD February 2011 v. February 2012 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Feb. 11: 11.2 months; Feb. 12: 8.2 months
A penny saved is a penny earned
U.S. Personal Savings Rate January 2002 through January 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis;
U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales January 2001 through February 2012 Source: Census
U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store February 2011 v. February 2012 Source: Economy.com *Drug store sales not available for February 2012
National Vehicle Sales January 2004 through February 2012 (SAAR) Source: Autodata Corp.
Maryland Auto Sales September 2001 through January 2012 Source: Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration Jan. 12 New Car Sales: 25,223; up 13.4% from January 11 Jan. 12 Used Car Sales: 46,367; up 7.1% from January 11
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through January 2012 January 2012 = 94.9 where 2004=100 Source: Conference Board
It s difficult to forecast, particularly the future Economy hit a soft patch; Carroll County future is in best schools possible; Recession no longer imminent; Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; Many headwinds remain and the nascent recovery could easily falter; and Leading threats to the U.S. recovery are political, not economic.
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