AN OVERVIEW OF PROXIMATE DRIVERS AND UNDERLYING CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION IN TROPICAL COUNTRIES

Seoul National University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Department of Forest Sciences AN OVERVIEW OF PROXIMATE DRIVERS AND UNDERLYING CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION IN TROPICAL COUNTRIES Reviewed term paper submission Khaing Thandar Soe 2014-31490 Ecological Economics Laboratory Department of Forest Sciences, CALS, SNU Instructor: Professor Hong, Jong Ho Class: Environmental Economics June 17, 2016 1

Abstract Deforestation has again become a global concern largely due to its important role in climate change and global warming. It plays an important role in the climate system because forests act as a major reservoir for carbon. Globally forest area gain and loss are happening continuously changing from 31.6 percent of global land area in 1990 to 30.6 percent in 2015. Decreasing the atmospheric carbon emissions by controlling deforestation is widely considered to be a relatively low-cost and effective option for climate change mitigation. Because of this potential, reducing deforestation has become an essential component of the international climate change mitigation strategies. Deforestation and forest degradation often happen due to the complex interaction of direct drivers which is operated at local or regional levels, and indirect drivers operated at local, regional, national and international levels. Agricultural expansion (both subsistence and commercial) takes part the highest proportion of deforestation in all continents while infrastructure and mining stand second for Africa, infrastructure for Latin America and urban expansion and infrastructure stand for subtropical Asia. In the case of forest degradation, fuelwood collection and charcoal making and timber logging are the most severe problem in Africa and subtropical Asia, while timber logging and uncontrolled fires are main drivers of degradation in Latin America. Thereby, the first step we should understand is the habit of the drivers; why it happens, how it happens. Once we understand the drivers and how they interact each other, we can plan and make suitable decisions to address those drivers. Deforestation is an important issue initially in the regional level as almost all sectors involve, however, it becomes global issue and can be solved by only human awareness, behavior, attitude and activities. Keywords; Proximate and underlying drivers, tropical deforestation, global issue 2

Introduction Forests are complex ecosystems that are related with lots of species in our planet. They play many crucial roles not only in mitigating climate change by acting as terrestrial carbon sinks and also part of carbon exchange between atmosphere and the land surface, but also home for different biodiversity, and act as resource banks for human by providing numerous ranges of goods and services. Being related with many species in the planet, forests are more vulnerable to be diminished and are under threat from deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation; the conversion of forest to another land use or the long-term reduction of the tree canopy cover below the minimum 10 percent threshold (FAO, 2000) and forest degradation;..the reduction of canopy cover or stocking of the forest or changes within the forest which negatively affect the structure or function of the stand or site and then lower the long-term capacity of providing products and services.. FAO (2000, 2001, and 2006) are the origin of global warming and threats to the living things. Deforestation and forest degradation has been happening since several decades ago. For many years now, the literature has delivered the evidence about forest gain and loss (UNEP, FAO and UNFF, 2009). A great deal of this is given over to considerations of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation based on local or regional studies (Geist and Lambin 2002, Morales-Barquero et al., 2015) and global studies (Boucher et al., 2011; Hosonuma et al., 2012) to address the leakage (Aukland et al., 2002) and to reduce carbon emission and REDD+ benefit-sharing (Weatherley-Singh and Gupta, 2015). Deforestation has again become a global concern largely due to its important role in climate change and global warming (Kanninen et al., 2007; Douglas and Simula, 2010). Decreasing the atmospheric carbon emissions by controlling deforestation is widely considered to be a relatively lowcost and effective option for climate change mitigation (DeFries et al, 2010). Because of this potential, reducing deforestation has become an essential component of the international climate change 3

mitigation strategies. Globally forest area gain and loss are happening continuously changing from 31.6 percent of global land area in 1990 to 30.6 percent in 2015 (FAO, 2015). Basically deforestation comes along with economic development and technological improvement. The deforestation pattern has been changing with time; until the early twentieth century, the estimated deforestation was the highest in the temperate forests and after mid-century, the deforestation in the tropical forests was the highest until now (FAO, 2012). Even though the trend of deforestation shows decreasing globally, there are still countries with high deforestation rate because of land-dependent economic activities and the forest management strategies (FAO, 2010). Deforestation and Forest Degradation; why are they happening? In this growing world, more food, more shelter and resources are needed to feed the growing population, and consequently more forests are disappearing and could not come back. Humans have been cutting down and clearing the forests since thousands of years ago for several reasons mainly for agricultural expansion, urbanization and logging. More than 805 of agricultural land came from the intact forest and especially tropical rainforests were the primary sources of agricultural land in 1980s and 1990s (Gibbs et al., 2010). This has been happening as a cycle; in which human clear the land to expand food production and to make use of natural resources, and as a consequence human are now facing with the crisis. Even though the effects of deforestation has been alarming, human s needs still cannot end. Thereby, deforestation is still happening with an increasing rate in several countries and reforestation and afforestation cannot cover the loss yet. Forest degradation mainly happen because of livestock grazing or understory burning by fire. It is not as severe as deforestation because even though it eliminates the trees and causes the loss of carbon, after some time, the trees can grow further and can replace carbon (Boucher et al., 2011). On 4

the other hand, it can change easily to the open canopy and became deforestation gradually. Deforestation can be measured by the combination of satellite images and ground measuring, however, degradation is harder than deforestation to measure due to difficulties in seeing how many trees are cutting, how much carbon dioxide is releasing and additionally, difficulty to assess the future trend (Boucher et al., 2011). Proximate Causes or Direct Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Proximate or direct drivers include activities that cause deforestation directly especially human activities. Several studies identified agricultural expansion as the most significant proximate local or regional driver of deforestation and it is estimated as direct driver to be around 80% all over the world (Miyamoto, 2006; DeFries et al., 2010; Kissinger et al., 2012; Weatherley-Singh and Gupta, 2015) and the price of agricultural commodities is positively correlated with deforestation (Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999). Urban growth and agricultural exports are positively correlated with forest loss with changing the consumption pattern of people and tropical forest will be more under threats with increasing global population generally (DeFries et al., 2010). Even though there are several studies to identify the trends and drivers of deforestation, studies for degradation are still limited. One empirical study identified proximate drivers separately for deforestation and forest degradation (Hosonuma et al., 2012) as commercial and subsistence agriculture, shifting cultivation, mining, infrastructure extension and urbanization as direct drivers of deforestation and logging (illegal, commercial, domestic), uncontrolled fire, trade in non-timber forest products, livestock grazing in the forests, fuelwood collection and charcoal production as drivers of forest degradation. Boucher et al., (2011) identified the specific drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in which raising cattle take lots of agricultural land around 70% of global land for the pasture and it can feed only 6% to 11% of human food. Moreover, palm oil production takes part in deforestation severely especially in Southeast Asia and it has more effect on global warming due to emissions from 5

conversion of swamp land to oil palm plantation leaving the peat land decay and emit CO 2 and methane (Boucher et al., 2011). Some drivers happen alone while others happen as a consequence by the interaction of two drivers. Underlying causes or indirect drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation The underlying or indirect drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are the root causes that drive proximate drivers to reach deforestation. Basically, deforestation and forest degradation happen due to land use and land cover change and conversion of forest lands to non-forested land. While proximate drivers are the immediate causes especially social factors, we should understand and identify why these social factors happen. For example, people clear the land to expand agricultural production, then we should identify why people decide to expand their land or what are the factors that make people s decision making. However, finding the link between underlying causes and deforestation is harder than identifying proximate drivers (Kawmowitz and Angelsen, 1998). They happen directly in the local level or indirectly in the international level as they are the complex interaction among political, cultural, economic and social aspects due to the interaction between human and environment (Geist and Lambin, 2001). According to the previous literature, Geist and Lambin (2001) identified the underlying cause of deforestation and forest degradation and grouped according to the factors as demographic factors (population dynamics), economics factors (commercialization, economic growth), technological factors (technological change or progress), policy and institutional factors, complex of socio-political or cultural factors (public attitudes, belief, human behavior). More specifically, policy reforms in economic liberalization and adjustment efforts, land tenure system, and timber price are also the underlying causes (Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999). 6

Deforestation in Global If we will talk about deforestation, we cannot miss REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and related forest activities) which is a climate change mechanism that has been negotiating under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and giving incentives to developing countries to reduce emissions and enhance removal of greenhouse gases by improving forest management. In addition to the discussion on policy incentives and modalities for measurements, reporting and verification (MRV), the issue of identifying drivers and activities causing forest carbon change on the national level for REDD+ monitoring and implementation has received increasing attention in the REDD+ debate (Bendorf R. et al., 2007, UNFCCC 2009). The UNFCCC negotiations have encouraged developing countries to identify land use, land use change and forestry activities, in particular those that are linked to the drivers of deforestation (UNFCCC 2009, 2014). The activities include: 1) reducing emissions from deforestation 2) reducing emissions from forest degradation 3) conservation of forest carbon stocks 4) sustainable management of forests 5) enhancement of forest carbon stocks (UNFCCC, 2011) As the basic step to conduct these activities is identifying drivers of deforestation and degradation, the need for data availability of these information from the developing countries is higher. There are several studies conducted for drivers locally, regionally and globally, however, yet the studies for underlying causes are still limited. Globally, forest area has been reduced from 4.1 billion hectares to under 4 billion hectares which is around 3.1% with the net loss of 129 million hectare same with the size of South Africa within 25 years (1990-2015) (FRA, 2015). The greatest forest loss happened especially in tropical countries, South America and Africa even though the deforestation rate is decreasing, however, yet the 7

huge amount of forests exist in the tropical countries and at the same time forest loss is the highest while other boreal and temperate regions forest areas are increasing (Figure 1). Table 1 and 2 show top ten countries with the highest annual forest loss and annual forest gain in 2010, Brazil, Indonesia and Myanmar are the top three countries with the highest forest loss, all exist in the tropic (FRA, 2015). Figure 1: Annual forest area change by climatic domain (000 hectare per year) Source: FRA, 2015 Table 1: Countries reporting the greatest annual forest area reduction (2010-2015) 8 Table 2: Countries reporting the greatest annual forest area gain (2010-2015)

Deforestation in Tropical Countries Deforestation plays an important role in the climate system because forests act as a major reservoir for carbon. Although global warming is often attributed to the burning of oil and gas, mostly in the developed countries (Kim, 2010), the contribution from deforestation in developing countries is also significant because it produces 1.6 billion tones GHG into the atmosphere each year (Baumert et al. 2005; FAO, 2006). Land use changes associated with deforestation are often more comprehensively explained in terms of economic and institutional variables (Olive, 1998). If deforestation goes continuously, there is the tendency that the remaining forests will be increasingly transformed into bare land where permanent and seasonal flooding and land sliding occur. That can change the land that is not suitable also for agriculture and other land uses. Deforestation and forest degradation often happen due to the complex interaction of direct drivers which is operated at local or regional levels, and indirect drivers operated at local, regional, national and international levels (Weatherley-Singh and Gupta, 2015). Individuals reported that the drivers are different with geographical zones, national, sub-national and even regionally. Even though agricultural expansion is the leading land use change proximate factor for deforestation associated with overall 96% of deforestation cases (Geist and Lambin, 2001), the drivers can be different with the continent and varies over time (Boucher et al., 2011; Hosonuma, 2012). There are studies showing agricultural expansion as the most severe driver in which more than 80% of agricultural land came from intact and disturbed forests (Gibbs et al., 2010). Hereby, generally subsistence and commercial farming are specific agricultural expansion in Southeast Asia and large scale agro-industrial expansion and livestock grazing are in South America (Butler and Laurance, 2009) while harvesting firewood and charcoal are in Africa. There is another informative and interesting study conducted by Kissinger et al. in (2012) 9

and Hosonuma et al. (2012) in which the drivers of deforestation and degradation are compared according to the continents (Figure 2). (a) (b) Figure (a): Proportion of deforestation drivers (2000-2010) Figure (b): Proportion of forest degradation drivers (2000-2010) Source: Kissinger et al., 2012 10

These figures show the continental-level estimations of importance of deforestation and degradation drivers reported by 46 countries. This meta-analysis study also proved that agriculture (both subsistence and commercial) take part the highest proportion of deforestation in all continents while infrastructure and mining stand second for Africa, infrastructure for Latin America and urban expansion and infrastructure stand for subtropical Asia. In the case of forest degradation, fuelwood collection and charcoal making and timber logging are the most severe problem in Africa and subtropical Asia, while timber logging and uncontrolled fires are main drivers of degradation in Latin America. Wertz-Kanounnikoff and Kongphan-Apirak (2008) reviewed the land use change and drivers of deforestation in Southeast Asia for the period of (1990-2008) and discussed that shifting cultivation and agricultural expansion are the leading proximate drivers and wood extraction (both legal and illegal) stands the second while population pressure, poverty, weak governance and institutions are the underlying causes of deforestation. Overall the situations of the drivers are similar for all Southeast Asian countries as their forest governance, and institution condition, and economy are similar. Discussion and Conclusion Why deforestation and forest degradation is happening? Several studies already answered this question by analyzing with different models and identifying different reasons for different continents and even for countries, locally, regionally and globally. Even though the answer is not only one, the overall answer is the Drivers. The drivers never come alone. They used to come with complexity, sometimes by the combination of demographic and economic factors, sometimes with policy, institutional and technological factors or cultural factors, or sometimes by the combination of all factors. Why the drivers are important? It will be better to find the answer why it is important to know the drivers. The growing number of studies are searching and examining how to reduce the pressure of those drivers by using different mechanisms. Thereby, the first step we should understand is the 11

habit of the drivers; why it happens, how it happens, and how can we make to address those drivers. Once we understand those and how they interact each other, we can plan and make suitable decisions to address those drivers. Especially for developing countries which involve in the main part of global climate change, there are challenges in different sectors; country s economy in one side, and environmental degradation on the other side; increasing population and poverty in one side and expand food production and deforestation in one side. Therefore, it is important to consider the long term sustainability by negotiating among different sectors to achieve the harmony. Deforestation is an important issue initially in the regional level as almost all sectors involve, however, it becomes global issue and can be solved by only human awareness, behavior, attitude and activities. 12

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