Historical and projected deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatu

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1 INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE INITIATIVE Regional project Climate Protection through Forest Conservation in Pacific Island Countries Historical and projected deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatu Processing description and results

2

3 Historical and projected deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatu Processing description and results April,

4 Prepared by: Jörg Seifert-Granzin Dorys Mendez Zeballos On behalf of: SPC/GIZ Regional Project Climate Protection through Forest Conservation in Pacific Island Countries P.O. Box 14041, SUVA, Fiji 2 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

5 Executive summary Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 3

6 Contents List of tables List of figures 4 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

7 Acronyms Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 5

8 Introduction SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

9 3 1 Conceptual approach, methods, and data to model land cover and land-use change 1.1 The foundations of land use and land cover change modeling Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 7

10 Figure 1: Drivers and underlying causes of deforestation Drivers Infrastructure extension Transport Markets Settlements Public services Mining, hydropower, oil Agricultural expansion Permanent cultivation Shifting cultivation Cattle ranching Colonization Wood extraction Commercial logging Fuelwood Pole wood Charcoal NTFPs Other factors Pre-disposing environmental factors Biophysical drivers Social trigger events Demographic causes Natural increment Migration Population density Population distribution Life cycle features Economic causes Commodity prices Subsidies and transfers Market growth & commercialization Economic structures Urbanization & industrialization Comparative costs Technological causes Agro-technical change Applications in the wood sector Agricultural production factors Policy & institutional causes Development and sector policies Public finance Policy climate Property rights Ideology Cultural causes Public attitudes, values, and beliefs Individual & household behavior Underlying causes Source: Geist and Lambin 2002 (adapted) 1.2 The spatial modeling approach 8 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

11 [ ] [ ] [ ] { } { } { } { } { } { } { } { } { } 1.3 Available data sets Data providing the historic deforestation patterns Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 9

12 10 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

13 1.3.2 Socio-economic data Other data on spatial proxies 2 Projecting future deforestation using Dinamica EGO 2.1 Overview on the processing chain Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 11

14 Processing steps Step 1: Calculating the transition matrix 12 Figure 2: Model and results of the transition matrix for the period SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

15 Step 2: Calculating ranges to categorize continuous data 14 Figure 3: Distance map processing applied to the provincial capital Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 13

16 Table 1: Proxies and related drivers/causes Coastline Proxy Related drivers / causes Assumptions Wood extraction Logging Fuel wood Charcoal production Pole wood production Proximity criteria: the coastline provides access to forests and resources extraction. Distance to Luganville Wood extraction Commercial logging Fuel wood Charcoal production Pole wood production Agricultural expansion Economic: distance to national markets Permanent cultivation Demographic Proximity criteria: Distance to the place with the highest population density and regional market drives demand for agricultural goods and timber. 14 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

17 Distance to villages Proxy Related drivers / causes Assumptions Wood extraction Timber Fuel wood Charcoal production Agricultural expansion Livestock Slash and burn Crop production Demographic growth Proximity criteria: Distance to the villages drives slash and burn practices, and demand for agricultural goods, fuel wood, charcoal, and pole wood Distance to roads Infrastructure extension Transport settlements Proximity criteria: Roads facilitate access to forests, forest conversion, and the development of new settlements Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 15

18 Proxy Related drivers / causes Assumptions Slope Wood extraction Commercial logging Agricultural expansion Slash and burn Permanent cultivation Topographic criteria: Slope might impede access to timber resources and subsequent conversion of logged forest to agriculture. Flat areas are more suitable for agriculture. Distance to non-forest edge Agricultural expansion Slash and burn Permanent cultivation Proximity criteria: the selection of sites to be deforested follows to a certain extend past deforestation practices. 16 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

19 Proxy Related drivers / causes Assumptions Vegetation cover Agricultural expansion Permanent cultivation Vegetation can be used as a proxy for favorable climate conditions for agriculture Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 17

20 Figure 4: Configuration of the Determine the Weights of Evidence Ranges Functor Step 3: Calculating WoE coefficients 18 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

21 Figure 5: Visual interpretation of the significance of WoE coefficients Step 4: Analyzing map correlation Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 19

22 Figure 6: Configuration of the correlation assessment model Step 5: Simulating LULC change for the period ) (B. S. Soares-Filho, Rodrigues, and Costa Figure 7: LULCC simulation model for the period SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

23 Figure 8: Deforestation probability map for year 2010 Step 6: Validating the LULCC simulation Figure 9: Similarity assessment for period Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 21

24 Step 7: Validating the LULCC simulation at multiple resolutions Figure 10: Similarity between simulated and observed deforestation for the period SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

25 Step 8: Simulating LULC change for Table 2: Deforestation rates and demographic growth Population increment Deforestation increment # inhabitants # ha , ,771 2,838 Source: (Vanuatu National Statistics Office 2009a); own calculations Figure 11: Deforestation projection model Discussion of results Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 23

26 Figure 12: Projected 2020 forest cover and deforestation Deforestation: 1,889.8 ha 24 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

27 Figure 13: Historic and projected forest cover change on Espiritu Santo Island, Measured and projected forest cover in Santo historic data projection measured forest cover [ha] Projected deforestation, starting 2011 Table 3: Comparison of total and annual area; total and annual rate of deforestation in Santo Island for the observed and projected periods Period Total deforestation [ha] Total deforestation rate Annual deforestation [ha] Annual deforestation rate % % % % % % Total (projected % % 1, % % Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 25

28 4 Recommendations 4.1 Improvements of the change detection processing chains 26 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

29 4.2 Improvements of the modeling approach 4.3 Priorities for REL development Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 27

30 References 28 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

31 Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 29

32 30 SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

33 Annex 1: Transition matrices for different deforestation periods Cells per category (initial landscape): ,185,512 1,196, ,193,750 3,182, Cells per transition Single Step Transition Matrix: Multi Step Transition Matrix Deforestation during transition [ha] Annual rate [ha/yr] ,755 3,807 2, Deforestation rates for Santo Island / Vanuatuu 31

34 Annex 2: Correlation of driver proxies First_Variable* Second_Variable* Chi_2 Crammer Contingency Joint_Entropy Joint_Uncertainty Proxies/Alttitude Proxies/Vegetation Proxies/Distance_to_provincial_capital Proxies/Distance_to_roads Proxies/Alttitude Proxies/Distance_to_coastline Proxies/Distance_to_roads Proxies/Distance_to_settlements Proxies/Distance_to_provincial_capital Proxies/Vegetation Proxies/Alttitude Proxies/Slope Proxies/Distance_to_coastline Proxies/Vegetation Proxies/Distance_to_roads Proxies/Vegetation Proxies/Distance_to_coastline Proxies/Distance_to_provincial_capital Proxies/Alttitude Proxies/Distance_to_roads Proxies/Distance_to_coastline Proxies/Distance_to_settlements Proxies/Slope Proxies/Vegetation Proxies/Alttitude Proxies/Distance_to_provincial_capital Proxies/Distance_to_provincial_capital Proxies/Distance_to_settlements Proxies/Distance_to_coastline Proxies/Distance_to_roads Proxies/Distance_to_roads Proxies/Slope Proxies/Alttitude Proxies/Distance_to_settlements Proxies/Distance_to_settlements Proxies/Vegetation Proxies/Distance_to_provincial_capital Proxies/Slope Proxies/Distance_to_settlements Proxies/Slope Proxies/Distance_to_coastline Proxies/Slope SPC/GIZ Regional REDD+ Project

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