Humanity s Top 10 Problems for next 50 years 1. ENERGY 2. WATER (= energy) 3. FOOD (= energy) 4. ENVIRONMENT (= energy) 5. POVERTY (~ energy) 6. DISEASE 7. EDUCATION 8. TERRORISM & WAR 9. DEMOCRACY 10. POPULATION*2003 6.5 Billion People 2050 8-10 Billion People 1 We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used, when we created them (A. Einstein)
What is Energy? Energy (work): kwh Power (work/time): kw Energy Units (~ units of work and heat): TOE, BTU, Joule, kwh Power: work in terms of time, i.e., momentary measurement: in units of HP, BTU/h, kw Are we running out? (Energy is preserved, except for E=mc 2 ; --> nuclear energy!!) NO, it is a problem of matching Energy Types to time, place, situation 2
3 Types of Energy: Electrical, Chemical, Mechanical, Radiation, Heat We can change one form of energy into another Chemical ---> heat ---> mechanical ---> electrical (power station) mechanical--->heat (flint stone, friction) Chemical ---> electrical (battery, fuel cell) Electrical ---> heat (toaster) Electrical ---> heat ---> radiative (incandescent light bulb) Radiative ---> electrical (solar cell) Radiative ---> heat (solar roof heater) but the problem is that mostly we pay a price (< 100% efficiency)
World Energy Consumption / yr, 1970-2000 2020 700 600 500 400 Quadrillion = 10 15 History Projections (2002) 1Btu 1 kj 0.3 Wh 300 200 100 0 1970 1975 80 1985 90 1995 99 05 10 15 20 4 Total World Need for Power 2005 ~14 TW(~2.2 10 8 boe/day) 2050 ~28 (60?) TW
World Power Sources by Type 5 Oil for 1998 4 3 Gas Coal TW 2 1 Bio mass Hydro Renew Nuclear 0 Fossil fuels ~ 80% of world power ENERGY: 5 J, Wsec; BTU POWER : W = J/sec
and... so they say we are running out of fossil fuel well... are we? are the (oil) data real? 6
Oil Reserves Reported by OPEC Countries Proved Crude Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels) 250 200 Saudi Arabia 150 100 50 0 1980 1985 Iran Mexico 1990 1995 Iraq United Arab Emirates 2000 2005 Year From S. Kurtz, NREL; Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration) 7
Energy Reserves and Resources Reserves ( x /( 98 year consumption) Ultimate Resources Oil* 40 50 Gas 70 200 Coal ~ 220 ~ 2000 8 * TOP 10 OIL PRODUCERS Arab Peninsula 42 % Arab world + Libya & Iran 68% Canada 16 % Venezuela 7 % Russia 5.5 %
Energy Reserves and Resources Reserves ( x /( 98 year consumption) Ultimate Resources Oil 40 50 Gas 70 200 Coal ~ 220 ~ 2000 time-independent constant : ~30-50 yrs of oil 9 but remember. the Stone Age did not end because of a shortage of stones Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, Saudi Oil Minister 1962-1986
and... so they say we are running out of fossil fuel well... are we? we are causing global warming well,... I guess we are.. 10
0.5 11
Temperature over the last 420,000 years Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change CO 2 We are here relative Temp. 12
and... so they say we are running out of fossil fuel well... are we? we are causing global warming well,... I guess we are.. we are poisoning our water, air and earth and..., boy, are we!! 13
Sources of Energy Conservation (friction, isolation..) STORAGE FUELS,batteries Is there a problem (pollution, global warming,..)? believer: believer sustainables unbeliever trust in OTHERS 14 YES concentrate! renewables? bet on SOLAR don t! fix CO 2 NO NUCLEAR hope for FUSION 200+ yrs COAL (liquefaction/gasification) CO 2 have faith in FISSION Final arbiters: $ (short-term) and J (energy; long-term) analyses
Interim Conclusions Fossil fuel resources for many 100s of years!! Alternatives (renewables, nuclear) IF external factors enter e.g., * real-politik (geo-politics) * fear because of too many unpleasantries * TAX on pollution, greenhouse gas emission or breakthroughs in cost ($ and J) of alternatives short-term Technological Advances long-term Basic Science 15
Sources of Carbon-Free Power Sustainables: Nuclear * Fission 10 TW: new reactor /day for next 15-20 yrs Not enough U Mine from seawater? Waste? time-independent: we ll solve it Breeder nuclear proliferation? (Th chain?) 16
Sources of Carbon-Free Power Sustainables: Nuclear * Fission 10 TW: new reactor /day for next 15-20 yrs Not enough U Mine from seawater? Waste? Breeder nuclear proliferation? (Th chain?) * Fusion time-independent : ~30 yrs to prove feasibility 17
Sources of Carbon-Free Power Sustainables: Nuclear * Fission 10 TW: new reactor /day for next 15-20 yrs Not enough U Mine from seawater? Waste? Breeder nuclear proliferation? (Th chain?) * Fusion 18 Renewables (incl. Carbon fixation) too expensive to make impact below ~$100/barrel oil?
Energy, A Global Challenge Meeting this challenge requires coordinated action of the world s scientific community, government & industry. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Finding ways for efficient, cost-effective production of clean fuels can be science s most important breakthrough but to help it happen we need the basic, fundamental science.. 19
now All I m saying is now is the time to develop the technology to deflect an asteroid. 20