RETAIL TRADE AREA PERFORMANE POKANE REGION 2010 2013 Prepared by Brett J. Lucas Business/Economic Geographer pokane, WA
Introduction Retail sales within a community are the result of overall economic activity in the region Retailing often serves as an indicator of community vigor and well being Development of a local retailing sector addresses the economic development strategy of import substitution
Trade Area Analysis Trade area analysis is an evaluation of a community retail market The key to the evaluation is to determine weather a community s retail sector is experiencing a net leakage or a net surplus of retail dollars
Trade Area Analysis Eight different retail sectors evaluated Building & Hardware General Merchandise Grocery Auto & Gasoline Apparel Furniture Lodging & Eating Liquor
Trade Area Analysis Retail ales ity and tate calendar year retail sales from the Department of Revenue Trade Area apture (TA) an estimate for the number of customer equivalents who purchase a specific retail category type in a given locality TA ij = R is PP s R ij PI j PI s
Trade Area Analysis Pull Factor (PF) calculates what proportion of the consumers that a city draws are from outside its boundaries PF= TA ij POP j A pull factor greater than 1.0 means that a city is attracting consumers outside the local population
Regional Population Growth pokane & pokane Valley mall ities 250,000 12,000 200,000 10,000 8,000 150,000 6,000 100,000 4,000 50,000 2,000-2010 2011 2012 2013-2010 2011 2012 2013 Airway Heights heney Deer Park pokane pokane Valley Liberty Lake Medical Lake Millwood
Total Taxable ales 3,000,000,000 pokane & pokane Valley 2010-2013 250,000,000 mall ities 2010-2013 2,500,000,000 200,000,000 2,000,000,000 150,000,000 1,500,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 50,000,000 500,000,000-2010 2011 2012 2013 pokane pokane Valley - 2010 2011 2012 2013 Airway Heights heney Deer Park Liberty Lake Medical Lake Millwood
Total Taxable ales 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% hare Of Total Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0% -100.0% -120.0% Annual Percent hange In Total Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013-140.0% 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Airway Heights heney Deer Park Airway Heights heney Deer Park Liberty Lake Medical Lake Millwood Liberty Lake Medical Lake Millwood pokane pokane Valley pokane pokane Valley
Building & Hardware Includes: lumber, building materials, paint, glass, wallpaper, nursery stock, and lawn/garden supplies
Building & Hardware Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 Building-Hardware $350,000,000 $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $45,000,000 $40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 Retail urplus/leakage - 2013 Building-Hardware $5,000,000 $- $(5,000,000) $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 $(10,000,000)
Building & Hardware 1,200,000 Trade Area apture - 2010-2013 Building-Hardware 25.00 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Building-Hardware 1,000,000 20.00 800,000 15.00 600,000 400,000 10.00 200,000 5.00-2010 2011 2012 2013 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013
Building & Hardware Market hare - 2013 Building-Hardware Potential Market hare - 2013 Building-Hardware 33% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 27% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 62% 63%
Building & Hardware TA
Building & Hardware PF
General Merchandise tores Includes: dry goods, apparel and accessories, home furnishings, small wares, hardware and food
General Merchandise Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 General Merchandise $600,000,000 $100,000,000 Retail urplus/leakage - 2013 General Merchandise $500,000,000 $50,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $- $(50,000,000) $(100,000,000) $(150,000,000) $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 $(200,000,000)
General Merchandise 1,200,000 Trade Area apture - 2010-2013 General Merchandise 25.00 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 General Merchandise 1,000,000 20.00 800,000 15.00 600,000 400,000 10.00 200,000 5.00-2010 2011 2012 2013 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013
General Merchandise Market hare - 2013 General Merchandise Potential Market hare - 2013 General Merchandise 6% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 27% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 40% 52% 63%
General Merchandise TA
General Merchandise PF
Grocery/Food tores Includes: grocery stores, meat & fish markets, fruit & vegetable stores, confectionary stores, dairy retail, bakeries, coffee/tea stores, and health food
Grocery Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 Grocery $250,000,000 $60,000,000 Retail urplus/leakage - 2013 Grocery $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 A $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $- $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 $(10,000,000)
Grocery 800,000 Trade Area apture - 2010-2013 Grocery 14.00 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Grocery 700,000 12.00 600,000 10.00 500,000 8.00 400,000 300,000 6.00 200,000 4.00 100,000 2.00-2010 2011 2012 2013 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013
Grocery Market hare - 2013 Grocery Potential Market hare - 2013 Grocery 21% 0% 5% 0% 5% 0% 0% 27% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 69% 63%
Grocery TA
Grocery PF
Automotive Dealers & Gasoline ervice tations Includes: dealers selling new and used automobiles, boats, RV s, trailers, motorcycles, parts & accessories, and gasoline stations
Auto & Gasoline Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 Auto-Gasoline $800,000,000 $150,000,000 Retail urplus/leakage - 2013 Auto-Gasoline $700,000,000 $100,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 A $50,000,000 $- $(50,000,000) $(100,000,000) $(150,000,000) $100,000,000 $(200,000,000) $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 $(250,000,000)
Auto & Gasoline 900,000 Trade Area apture - 2010-2013 Auto-Gasoline 25.00 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Auto-Gasoline 800,000 700,000 20.00 600,000 500,000 15.00 400,000 300,000 10.00 200,000 5.00 100,000-2010 2011 2012 2013 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013
Auto & Gasoline Market hare - 2013 Auto-Gasoline Potential Market hare - 2013 Auto-Gasoline 1% 3% 1% 7% 0% 0% 27% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 44% 44% 63%
Auto & Gasoline TA
Auto & Gasoline PF
Apparel & Accessory tores Includes: new clothing, shoes, hats undergarments, and related items for personal wear
Apparel Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 Apparel $300,000,000 $120,000,000 Retail urplus/leakage - 2013 Apparel $250,000,000 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 A $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $- $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 $(20,000,000)
Apparel 1,000,000 Trade Area apture - 2010-2013 Apparel 8.00 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Apparel 900,000 7.00 800,000 700,000 6.00 600,000 5.00 500,000 4.00 400,000 3.00 300,000 200,000 2.00 100,000 1.00-2010 2011 2012 2013 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013
Apparel Market hare - 2013 Apparel Potential Market hare - 2013 Apparel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 4% 1% 39% 27% 61% 63%
Apparel TA
Apparel PF
Home Furniture, Furnishings, and Equipment tores Includes: furniture, floor coverings, draperies, glass/chinaware, appliances, consumer electronics, computer software, and music stores
Furniture Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 Furniture $350,000,000 $5,000,000 Retail urplus/leakage - 2013 Furniture $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $- $(5,000,000) $(10,000,000) $(15,000,000) $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 $(20,000,000)
Furniture 900,000 Trade Area apture - 2010-2013 Furniture 25.00 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Furniture 800,000 700,000 20.00 600,000 500,000 15.00 400,000 300,000 10.00 200,000 5.00 100,000-2010 2011 2012 2013 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013
Furniture Market hare - 2013 Furniture Potential Market hare - 2013 Furniture 24% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 27% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 68% 63%
Furniture TA
Furniture PF
Lodging & Eating Establishments Includes: motels, hotels, prepared food and drink for consumption on premise (i.e. restaurant), and refreshment stands
Lodging & Eating Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 Lodging-Eating $800,000,000 $120,000,000 Retail urplus/leakage - 2013 Lodging-Eating $700,000,000 $100,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $100,000,000 $- $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 $(20,000,000)
Lodging & Eating 900,000 Trade Area apture - 2010-2013 Lodging-Eating 18.00 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Lodging-Eating 800,000 16.00 700,000 14.00 600,000 12.00 500,000 10.00 400,000 8.00 300,000 6.00 200,000 4.00 100,000 2.00-2010 2011 2012 2013 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lodging & Eating Market hare - 2013 Lodging-Eating Potential Market hare - 2013 Lodging-Eating 1% 2% 25% 1% 0% 0% 0% 27% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 71% 63%
Lodging & Eating TA
Lodging & Eating PF
Liquor ales Includes: liquor sold for personal consumption off premise from a grocery store, liquor store or convenience store
Liquor $12,000,000 Taxable Retail ales - 2010-2013 Liquor $2,000,000 Retail urplus/leakage - 2013 Liquor $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $- $(500,000) $(1,000,000) $(1,500,000) $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 $(2,000,000)
Liquor 900,000 Trade Area apture - 2010-2013 Liquor 40.00 Pull Factor - 2010-2013 Liquor 800,000 35.00 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 30.00 25.00 20.00 300,000 200,000 15.00 10.00 100,000 5.00-2010 2011 2012 2013 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013
Liquor Market hare - 2013 Liquor Potential Market hare - 2013 Liquor 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 5% 7% 27% 4% 1% 84% 63%
Liquor TA
Liquor PF
onclusion Results from a retail trade analysis are a step in attracting local retail dollars hanges in sources of income, spending patterns, and the population make-up will influence retailing in both smaller and larger communities Retail leakage into Idaho will continue to be of concern to communities east of pokane