Perspectives from india px/pta market 19 th Sept 14 2
India s Past History! India in ancient times, was a significant participant, even a mother market, in three of the greatest trade routes of all time The Silk Road, The Spice Route and The Incense Route! Trade on these routes was a significant factor in the development of the civilizations of China, India, Persia, Europe and Arabia.
India An Enigma India, given its vastness, diversity and special demographics always throws up questions as to how Industry would evolve. Vastness, diversity and demographics are strengths and not weaknesses. Fundamentals of India stronger than ever before. India s needs are different and a long term player needs to focus on and address these special needs. Focused attention is needed for what we in India call Roti, Kapda aur Makaan; Food, Clothing and Housing. play a most significant role in all of these three broad areas Agriculture, Packaging, Infrastructure, Detergents, Health Care, Synthetic Fibre and Water Management are key sectors for India
India - Demographics Median Age (25.1 Yrs) Urban (31.3%) Growth (2.9%) Population 1.2 Billion (Growth 1.25%) 17.5% of World Population in 2.4% of World s Land Area Rural (69%) Growth (1.08%) Average Age (26.5 Yrs) Source:India Census 2011
India Megatrend Population Growth and Shifting Population Centers. Population growth in India has stabilized at around 1.25%; urban growth is almost 3% whereas rural growth is just over 1%. Increased urbanization demands improvement in infrastructure; power, water, roads, buildings and transportation. Another major trend; producing food remotely and transporting it to the consumption center agricultural, packaging and transportation efficiencies need to be achieved. Urbanization would lead to other sub-trends consumerism, health care and recycling Urban per-capita consumption of fibres, even at today s level, is 5 times that of rural consumption.
Drivers of Growth Indian Textiles Favorable demographic/ low median age. Large base of domestic consumers Rising disposable income Speedy urbanization Informed, fashion aware, customers of all season Increased Govt. outlay /Pvt. Investment in infrastructure. Favorable Govt. policies & initiatives Projected high growth on Industrial & Technical Textiles Best alternative to China as supply base
India - Regional Imbalance India Turning Middle Class The Kanpur-Chennai Line West of the Kanpur- Chennai line East of the Kanpur- Chennai line 50% 50% Kanpur 32% 22% Chennai 8% 1980 2000 2010 2020 2040 Source: Gurcharan Dass Marbella, Spain
Population Vs Petchem Demand 31% 21% 26% Population 47% 11% 22% Demand Regional Imbalance - Increase Manufacturing Capacity in North & East 21% 21% Source: IOCL Analysis Opportunity in the Northern Sector 9
Opportunity - East Indian Trading Zone Outlined Shape is home to 300 million people in 3 countries! Young Population Av Age 27 yrs Low per capita consumption of Fibres scope for growth Adequate supply new plants Borders and Trade Opening up via Road and Rail routes Future growth hotbed & beyond to Myanmar
Opportunity - North Indian Trading Zone Outlined Tear Drop Shape is home to 800 million people in 3 countries! Youngest Population Av Age 25 yrs Low per capita consumption of Fibres scope for growth Adequate supply new plants Borders and Trade Opening up via Road and Rail routes Future growth hotbed
MMT World Scenario of Polyester Polymer 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fig. in TMT 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Production Capacity Utilisation 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% China produces almost 68% of global production & 73% of total Asia fibre output. Over capacity will progressively slow down the utilization rate to 70% There is/ will be cancellation or delays in start up of proposed expansion in Asia & ME. Cost escalation at the downstream and apparel interface, release of dramatic high stock of cotton are factors which may impact polyester production in China
Growth Potential of Polyester Textiles Lower Fibre consumption, poised for growth Indian per capita consumption 5 Kg, far below world average of 12 Kg, China 19 Kg. India s consumption, Ratio of Cotton: MMF is 60:40 Likely to fall in line with Global ratio of 35:65 (Cotton:MMF) Ratio in China is 20:80 (Cotton:MMF) Cotton per capita consumption stagnant 65% of incremental demand Globally in favor of Polyester
Growth Potential of Polyester Textiles cont/- Cotton production trend of world & China, India, Pakistan reached stagnancy World 25 to 27 MMTPA China, India, Pakistan 15 to 16 MMTPA Cotton price volatility & upward swings globally in favor of Polyesters Polyester, the most economical fibres for textile industry. Growing presence of Global Brand & Pvt. Label Preference of fibre mix in favor of Polyesters Per capita consumption of PET in India 0.55 Kg against world avg. of 2.67 Kg growing rapidly.
Growth Potential of Polyester Textiles cont/- High growth in non woven, Polyester will play major role 0.1 Kg/capita now to 4.0 Kg per capita by 2050. Mill level consumption of polyester stands at 40% & expected to increase to 70% by 2030.
Indian Market Fibre/ Fibre Intermediates Unprecedented growth during last few years. Growth mainly catalyzed by limited availability of cotton. Similar growth is likely to follow in near terms. Double digit growth, 10-12% is likely. 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Projected Consumption Growth (KTA) 14406 9363 7270 5723 3930 4297 4927 3168 2036 2297 2012-13 2013-14 2016-17 2021-22 2026-27 PTA Glycol
TMT Indian Polyester Textile 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 Production Capacity Utilisation 75% 70% 65% 60% India polyester to experience growth more than world avg. (10% for staple fibre, 7.4% for filament) India s total fibre production to grow from 9% of world output in 2012 to 11.6% of total world output by 2020. Integrated Textile Manufacturing to consolidate, non integrated manufacturers struggle.
MMT PTA - Supply Demand World Scenario 100 80 60 40 20 0 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Capacity Production Demand Utilisation Rate Effective PTA capacity growth between 2012 2018 : 34.9 MMT Global utilization to dip sharply in 2013-14 & onwards to as low as 70% only to recover at the end of decade. Asia with 68% global production of which China alone is 48%, will add 30 MMT capacity between 2012-2018. Supply overhang in Asia due to regional demand growth is only 18 MMT against 30 MMT addition. China will be net exporter of PTA. Korea, China & Taiwan combine to chase net export of 1.6 MMT. 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60%
PTA- Domestic Supply Demand RIL 1 st plant 1200 TMTPA (Comm. in Q3 14-15) JBF plant 1200 TMTPA (Comm. In Q2 2016) located in SEZ- Cater to their overseas units JBF plant 1200 TMTPA full operation 1/3 in DTA area All fig. in TMT Domestic Market to remain in shortfall in short/long term. 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 Recent incorporation of ADD on imports of PTA to benefit domestic suppliers. Prolonged suppressed PX- PTA spread likely to impact operating rates of non integrated units like MCPI. 3000 2000 1000 RIL 2nd plant 1200 TMTPA (Comm. in 17-18) 0 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Production Availability Demand RIL 1 st plant 1200 TMTPA capacity - full operation
PTA -Domestic Market Producers RIL, Dahej: 1200 TMTPA (Comm. in Q4 14-15) IOC, Panipat: 553 TMTPA 7% of total polyester capacity MCPI, Haldia: 1280 TMTPA RIL, Dahej : 1200 TMTPA (Comm. in 17-18). 6% of total polyester capacity JBF, Mangalore: 1200 TMTPA (SEZ) RIL, Hazira : 2100 TMTPA Polyester hub: 86% of total polyester capacity Imports by Polyester Industry (2013-14) 967 TMT Year PTA imports (TMT) 2011-12 709 2012-13 625
MMT MEG - Supply Demand World Scenario 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Production Demand Global Plant operating rate 85% China constitutes 66% of Asia consumption & 48% of global consumption. MEG capacity expansion to accelerate in 2016-17. Coal based MEG production lead to output uncertainty in Asia Shale gas MEG to be targeted at Asia market & can be potential game changer.
MEG- Domestic Supply Demand 3500 3000 2500 2000 Domestic Market to remain in shortfall Global Plant operating Rate 82%, Major plants are Gas based (COP advantage) 1500 1000 500 0 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 RIL plant 750 TMTPA (Comm. In 16-17)- 300 TMTPA for captive consumption Production Capacity Demand
MEG -Domestic Market Producers RIL, Hazira : 525 TMTPA IOC, Panipat: 325 TMTPA IGL, Kashipur: 120 TMTPA RIL, Gandhar : 200 TMTPA RIL, Nagothane & Vadodara 75 TMTPA RIL, Jamnagar: 750 MMTPA (Comm. In 16-17) Gas based Year MEG imports (TMT) 2011-12 667 2012-13 693 Imports by Polyester Industry (2013-14) 893 TMT
Import of PTA & MEG in India Impact of ADD on PTA import Imports Uneconomical Integrated players will try to increase export participation - Resulting import of chips, POY having no ADD Imports started downstream Growth of textile will be affected with high cost raw material & competition with RIL in down stream. With ADD in place & CFR IMP, MCPI will be more costly among three. PX-PTA spread will be additional pressure. RIL, once new PTA commissioned, is in more advantageous position to cater WR market (70% of total), compared to MCPI/IOCL Already many unit are closed down or under CDR like Alok Inds/ Rajashree/Modern Petrofils/ Raj Rayon/ Nakoda Ltd., Impact of ADD will adversely impact their attempt to recover. Emerging situation also deter future investment in this sector.
TMT P- Xylene Outlook 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% Capacity Production Consumption Utilisation Global Capacity growth projected at 8.2% during 2013 to 2018. A large portion is additional reform based investment with new condensate refinery configuration With new global capacity coming on stream, avg. utilization would dip sharply from peak of 89% in 2013 to 79% by 2015. Demand for P-Xylene in China from 6.1 MMT in 2012 to 12 MMT in 2017 will dominate P Xylene trade. Enhanced demand will be met by Korean/ ME net exports (Korea from 1.4 to 5 MMT & ME from 1.9 to 4.5 MMT by 2017) Competitive dynamics will put pressure on merchant Xylene based production.
TMT P- Xylene Outlook - India 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 -20 Production Demand Imports Exports P Xylene domestic demand to grow significantly in 2014-15 ( commissioning of RIL PTA plant. Capacity addition by OMPL 460 KT each in 14-15 & 15-16 ( 920 KT). Majority of capacity will be supplied to upcoming PTA plant at Mangalore SEZ RIL to double its Paraxylene capacity by 2016-17 at Jamnagar ( 2150 KTA. MMTPA) By 2016-17, India become net exporter of PX by approx. 0.8 MMT.
Eastern India Opportunity Knocks Potential for PX/PTA Unit Indian Oil Paradip Source: IOCL Analysis
Spread Data (Naphtha/PX/PTA/MEG) 400 350 300 250 USD/MT 200 150 100 50 0-50 Avg (11-12)Avg (12-13)Avg (13-14) Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Naphtha-PTA Spread PX-PTA Spread Naphtha - PX spread MEG -Naphtha Spread For FY 11-12, FY 12-13 & FY 13-14 PTA quotes is CFR China For Apr July 14 PTA quotes is CFR India
Products profile IndianOil - Current Presence in India s Second Largest Petchem Playeralue addition to downstream business LAB at Gujarat ($ 185 Million) o 120 TMTPA capacity plant commissioned in 2004 o 24% capacity of the Indian industry PX/PTA at Panipat ($682 Million) 553 TMTPA PTA capacity plant commissioned in 2006 14.3% capacity of the industry Polymer/Glycol (Naphtha Cracker at Panipat) ($2585 Million) Commissioned in 2010 Polymer Glycol 1250 TMTPA Capacity 19.2% Capacity of the Industry 325 TMTPA Capacity 25 % Capacity of the Industry Polyolefins Aromatics Surfactant F/s Glycols Polyethylene Poly-propylene PTA LAB MEG DEG TEG Export: LAB to 21 countries, Polymer to 50 countries & Glycols to 12
Current Presence in Indian Synthetic Rubber Ltd (ISRL) JV PARTNERS: IOC; M/s Taiwan Synthetic Rubber Corp (TSRC); M/s Marubeni, Japan Feedstock: Styrene and Butadiene Capacity : 120TMTPA Start of Operation: December 2013
Initiatives Planned for Future Growth DEVELOPMENT OF PCPIRs (PETROLEUM, CHEMICALS & PETROCHEMICALS INVESTMENT REGIONS) PCPIR approved at Paradip with IndianOil as Anchor tenant IndianOil to set up Polypropylene Unit & Ethylene derivative Complex based on propylene & ethylene availability from Refinery FCC Accelerated development of downstream petrochemical industry for polymer processing like packaging, fibre & filament, automotive, health care & personal care Creation of employment opportunities Impetus to petrochemical demand growth in Eastern India where petrochemical consumption is the lowest. 31
C S Shankar General Manager ( Marketing) IndianOIl Corporation Ltd