Hospitality Digest 2014 Key issues, facts and figures A profile of the UK hospitality industry Specialist consultants to the hotel industry
Contents FOREWORD Big data is the new big thing.... 8 Easy Navigation Hyperlinked contents pages have been designed with the reader in mind. Bookmarks also offer direct access, providing the data you want at your fingertips. INTRODUCTION Hospitality emerges from the recession... 9 SECTION 1 Tourism 13 SECTION 1.1 World tourism... 14 Table 1 International tourist arrivals ( 000s), 1990, 2006-2013.... 14 Table 2 International tourism payments (US$bn) 1990, 2006-2012.... 14 Table 3 Table 4 International tourism by arrivals: leading ten countries, (m) 2010-2012... 15 International tourism by receipts: leading ten countries, (US$bn) 2010-2012... 15 SECTION 1.2 Tourism and the UK economy.... 16 ANALYSIS Total value of UK tourism and leisure industry... 16 By Peter Backman FIH Table 5 Value of UK tourism and leisure industry ( bn), 2007-2012.... 17 Table 6 Estimated tourism expenditure 2011 ( m)... 18 Table 7 Value of tourism to UK ( bn), 2004-2013... 19 Table 8 Trends in inbound and outbound tourism to UK, 2000-2013.... 20 Table 12 How overseas visitors spend their time in the UK and what they spend.... 26 Table 13 Distribution of overseas visitors by regions, 2010 2012... 26 SECTION 1.5 Domestic tourism... 27 Table 14 How British people spend their time away from home and what they spend.... 28 Table 15 Distribution of domestic visitors by England region, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2011-2013.... 29 SECTION 1.6 Attractions... 30 Table 16 Leading ten attractions in UK, 2013... 30 SECTION 1.3 World Economic Forum.... 21 UK held back by high taxes... 21 By Kurt Janson SECTION 1.4 UK inbound tourism... 24 Table 9 Number of visits to the UK by overseas residents (000s), 2005-2013... 24 Table 10 Top ten countries of origin of overseas visitors to the UK, 2005-2013 by number of visits (000s)... 25 Table 11 Top ten countries of origin of overseas visitors to the UK 2005-2013 by spend ( m).... 25 3 Institute of Hospitality
Contents Your Resource Table 73 Monthly hotel occupancy, Northern Ireland (%), Packed with information, 2010-2013,... 139 insights, facts and figures, the digest offers a complete picture of SECTION the hospitality 3.9 industry today all Hotel delivered operating within results one 2012 accessible...140 Table and 74 engaging Room occupancy, publication. London (%), 1998, 2004-2012...140 Table 75 Room occupancy, England, Scotland and Wales (%), 2004-2012...140 Table 76 Average achieved room rates and RevPAR in London ( ), 1998-2012...141 Table 77 Average achieved room rates, England, Scotland and Wales ( ), 2004-2012....142 Table 78 RevPAR in England, Scotland and Wales ( ), 2004-2012....142 Table 79 Total revenue per available room, UK ( ), 2004-2012....143 Table 80 Room revenue as a percentage of total revenue, London (%) 2004-2012...143 Table 81 Room revenue as a percentage of total revenue, England, Scotland and Wales (%), 2004-2012...144 Table 82 Food revenue as a percentage of total revenue, London (%), 2004-2012...144 Table 83 Food revenue as a percentage of total revenue, England, Scotland and Wales (%), 2004-2012...145 Table 84 Beverage revenue as a percentage of total revenue, London (%) 2004-2012...145 Table 85 Beverage revenue as a percentage of total revenue, England, Scotland and Wales (%), 2004-2012....146 Table 86 Percentage of total payroll to total revenue, London (%), 2004-2012...147 Table 87 Percentage of total payroll to total revenue, England, Scotland and Wales (%), 2004-2012...147 Table 88 Gross Operating Profit per available room, ( ), 2004-2012....148 Table 89 Percentage of Gross Operating Profit to total revenue (%), 2004-2012...148 Table 90 Percentage of Gross Operating Profit to total revenue (%), 2004-2012...148 Table 91 Percentage distribution of revenue and expenses, UK, London, England, Scotland and Wales, 2006-2012....149 SECTION 3.10 Hotel values...150 Table 92 Hotel Valuation Index ( ), 2004-2013....150 Table 93 Hotel values per room ( ) 2006-2013...150 Table 94 Forecast hotel values per room ( ) 2014-2018....151 SECTION 3.11 Hotel insolvencies....152 Table 95 Insolvencies in UK hotel industry, 2008-2013...152 SECTION 3.12 World s largest hotel groups....153 Table 96 Ten largest world hotel groups, with main brands, 2009-2013....153 SECTION 4 UK Foodservice Industry 155 ANALYSIS Fewer meals but spend increases...156 By Peter Backman FIH SECTION 4.1 Size of foodservice industry...159 Table 97 UK foodservice industry, 2007-2013...159 Table 98 Number of outlets in all sectors, 2007-2013...160 Table 99 Number of meals served in all sectors (m), 2007-2013....161 Table 100 Food sales in all sectors ( m), 2007-2013...162 Table 101 Food and drink sales in all sectors ( m), 2007-2013....163 Table 102 Food and drink sales in UK, 2011-2013...163 Table 103 Average meal price in the profit sector ( ), 2007-2013....164 Table 104 Average mark-up in the profit sector (%), 2007-2013....164 Table 105 Value of food purchases in all sectors ( m), 2007-2013....165 Figure 7 Inflation in F&B costs, 2007-2014....166 SECTION 4.2 ANALYSIS Higher food and fuel costs lead the way....166 by Peter Backman FIH Table 106 Average % increase in costs...167 SECTION 4.3 UK leading foodservice and drink operators....168 Table 107 Leading restaurant groups UK, 2014....168 Table 108 Leading Quick Service Restaurants/take-aways, UK, 2014...169 Table 109 Leading coffee shop groups UK, 2014...170 Table 110 Leading pub groups UK, 2014....171 6 Institute of Hospitality
FOREWORD Introduction Introducing Big Data at your fingertips Your compendium of everything hospitality, highlighting the Big data is the movers and the shakers and presenting the information you need to make informed decisions for your new big thing business s future. We are living in the information age. The challenge is how best to use the extraordinary amounts of information that become increasingly available every year, filtering out what is really necessary from all the noise that surrounds it. However, knowing what has happened is quite different to interpreting the information so that it better informs your view of what is going to happen next. The aim of the is to provide owners, managers, investors, analysts, consultants and the media as well as students and graduates - with a wealth of current information and associated data on the hospitality industry, interpreted by experts who provide an informed opinion on the trends that are emerging and what their likely impact will be. As a result, readers will be better able to understand the impact of past events and the issues facing us in the future. the first in an intended series of annual publications represents a significant development for the Institute. In a single, easy-to-access reference publication it contains facts and figures on the growth of the industry s major sectors during the past year tourism, hotels and foodservice as well as a unique section examining key issues facing employers and educators. The information within its 190 pages enhances the resources that are available in our library, complementing the Institute s reputation as an up-to-date and ever expanding source of knowledge and information for members. As the professional body for managers across the industry, the Institute is committed to promoting professionalism through lifelong learning. I believe that is an integral part of this process. It is part of the support that the Institute gives members through education, networking, industry updates and, of course, research. As the professional body for managers across the Industry, the Institute is committed to promoting professionalism through lifelong learning. In writing this introduction, I must thank all those who have contributed articles and provided information for inclusion in the publication. Without their co-operation together with the work of the editors would not have been possible. Needless to say, no publication of this kind can ever be complete and we welcome any suggestions for the inclusion of additional material or other improvements for future editions. Peter Ducker FIH Chief Executive 8 Institute of Hospitality
Section 1.2 Tourism and the UK economy Section 1 Tourism Table 5: Value of UK tourism and leisure industry ( bn), 2007-2012 124 Useful Tables 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 Provide the reader with an immediate understanding of trends and developments Total in the Total Total Total Total Total Tourism Inbound tourists industry invaluable for planning and for business decisions. Overnight accommodation Domestic holidays UK residents Leisure UK residents 11.7 11.5 12.7 12.5 13.7 14.6 3.0 11.6 - Eating out-of-home 21.6 22.5 23.1 23.4 23.6 24.8 1.5 4.7 18.6 Drinking out-ofhome Air travel within UK and from start points outside UK to destinations within UK Rail, car, coach, taxi, cab travel for leisure and tourism Cinemas, theatres, museums, zoos, historic properties, theme parks, gardens Social clubs, leisure classes, bingo, dances, discos, social events 36.3 36.1 33.9 33.8 33.3 32.3 0.5 5.6 26.2 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 1.7 1.4-4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.3 1.5 2.4 1.4 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.8 1.0-2.8 6.6 5.6 5.9 5.6 6.5 7.2 - - 7.2 Sports - spectating 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.3-1.4 Sports - participating 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 - - 1.7 Shopping on holiday, shopping by overseas visitors 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.6 - - Gambling 4.5 3.8 4.3 5.0 3.7 3.7 - - 3.7 Business-related expenditure 11.8 12.2 12.4 13.0 13.8 14.7 5.3-9.3 TOTAL 110.6 109.7 110.5 111.1 113.5 117.4 19.4 25.7 72.3 - = Excluded from scope but effectively is zero in most cases. Source: Horizons Note: Domestic holidays are leisure activities that involve at least one night spent away from home (excluding business activities). This is the same as holiday tourism as defined by UKTS. Leisure activities do not involve a night spent away from home. Drinking out-of-home includes alcoholic and soft drink consumption in pubs and restaurants, whether or not food is consumed at the same time. Gambling by UK residents also includes gambling by overseas visitors. Air travel only includes payment to carriers based in the UK. 17 Institute of Hospitality
Section 1 Tourism SECTION 1.3 World Economic Forum UK held back by high taxes Informed Comment Interpreted analysis and informed comment from top industry professionals and experts, providing insight into the key issues facing our industry. in world tourism rankings By Kurt Janson The UK is climbing the World Economic Forum tourism rankings but it s still near the bottom for price competitiveness and taxes. Tourism is one of the world s largest industries. This year alone 1.1bn people are predicted to travel internationally, spending 730bn (US$1,075bn) and creating 260m jobs. Once domestic tourism is added, these figures are estimated to double, meaning that around 1 in 14 people across the globe work in the tourism industry. Moreover, despite the global economic slowdown, global tourism is currently growing by 4.5 per cent per annum and the UN World Tourism Organisation predicts the revenue generated by the industry will double by 2030. It is therefore important that governments are able to assess the international competitiveness of their country as a destination for visitors in order to improve their offering and therefore gain as much benefit as possible from global tourism growth. To enable them to do this, every two years the World Economic Forum produces The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report a publication designed to show countries how they are faring in the highly competitive global tourism market and highlighting areas where reform is needed if the country is going to maximise the benefits that it receives from tourism. Clearly, developing a global competitiveness ranking for all the countries in the world is not an easy task. Not only are there a myriad of reasons why someone travels from one country to another, there are also a myriad of attributes that destination countries have that influence the decision-making process of potential visitors and which leads them to choose one destination over another. The WEF report recognises this and tries to bring a coherent approach to analysing and ranking these factors. In doing so it finds 14 main factors (or pillars as they are termed in the report) that influence decision-making. These range from policy and regulation, health and safety, transportation links, infrastructure and cost through to natural and cultural assets. Within these 14 main factors, there are then 79 measures that are assessed in order to score and rank countries. For example, the air transport infrastructure factor has seven different measures. Each of these measures is scored and ranked internationally, with the individual scores and ranking being amalgamated to provide the overall score and ranking for air transport infrastructure. This year alone 1.1bn people are predicted to travel internationally, spending 730bn (US$1,075bn) and creating 260m jobs. 21 Institute of Hospitality
Section 3 UK Hotel Industry Into the Future Helping you stay one step ahead of the curve. Painting a picture of what s in store for the independent operator. FEATURE UK hotels face a branded future Compared with 1990, today s hotel industry is unrecognisable; further change is inevitable with stronger brands, more fragmented ownership and fewer independent operators. By 2030 six out of every ten hotels will be corporate branded. By Melvin Gold FIH Igraduated from hotel school in 1981 during the course we had learned about billing machines, Whitney racks and a host of other operational equipment that has long since passed into extinction. But it is not just operational equipment, techniques and styles that are much changed, Lord Forte and Sir Maxwell Joseph led the foremost companies in the sector, Trusthouse Forte (as it then was) and Grand Metropolitan. Although these companies seemed like giants at the time they are dwarfed by the scale of today s hotel companies. Although sourcing data from 1981 has not been possible, in Table 47 on the next page are listed the top 10 companies in the hotel sector in 1990, 2000 and 2013. Three companies in the 2013 listing have more rooms than Forte in 1990 and only three that were listed in the 1990 listing would have made the top ten today. The top ten companies today comprise 233,316 rooms compared to 128,899 in 2000 and just 81,400 in 1990. 72 Institute of Hospitality
Section 4 UK Foodservice Industry SECTION 4.2 ANALYSIS an uncertain future. Higher food and fuel costs lead the way Resilient caterers ride the storm Eating-out Your resource for the current take on what s happening in foodservice information that will help you plan your business in by Peter Backman FIH Operators have seen a switchback ride with food and beverage input costs in the last half dozen years. Food and beverages are a major input into the cost base of all operators, averaging about 37 per cent across the sectors from restaurants and hotels to schools and hospitals. Labour, at a shade under 40 per cent of all costs, is the other main input and the balance is made up of everything from the costs of debt servicing and rent, to energy and equipment purchases. Of these various costs, the most volatile since 2007 has been food and fuel. Food cost inflation peaked in the summer of 2008 after which it plummeted for over a year before rising again to a (smaller) peak in 2011 from which time it fell to two per cent in the early part of 2014. Labour costs, on the other hand were not only much more benign, but they did not show any marked volatility over the same period while all other costs showed some volatility primarily because of a rapid rise in fuel costs in 2008/09; lower borrowing costs took the lead in offsetting higher energy bills. Over the period, non-f&b/non-labour costs increased by just under 3.5 per cent per year on average. Figure 7: Inflation in F&B costs, 2007-2014 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: ONS. Horizons 166 Institute of Hospitality
Section 4 UK Foodservice Industry SECTION 4.4 Openings and closures, 2012 Government Business Demography tables focus on changes in the registered business population with data Births on births, and deaths deaths and survival rates Information of businesses. on the The success 2012 births and of deaths start-ups, of hospitality highlighting businesses the opportunities appear in Table and 111 identiifying below; a birth the is most defined vulnerable as a business sectors. that did Figures not exist in 2011 that and show a death the industry s is a business that was strengths operating and in 2011 weaknesses. but not in 2012. In 2012, there were 270,000 business births in the UK in total (a birth rate of 11.4 per cent) and provisionally 255,000 businesses that died (a death rate of 11.2 per cent.) In the food and accommodation sector, using a slightly wider definition than in Table 111 and calculating on 163,000 businesses, the birth rate was 20,000 (12.5 per cent) and the death rate was 22,000 (13.3 per cent) the number of deaths being the highest of all broad industry groups and significantly above the national average of 11.2 per cent. Table 111 would suggest that the hotel, licensed restaurant and pub sectors of the industry are particularly vulnerable, with a higher rate of closure than startups, with a three year survival rate of under 60 per cent in all three sectors ie: four in ten new businesses fail within three years. The Business Demography figures are calculated on VAT and/or PAYE returns so may not include guest houses and other businesses that are not registered for VAT and do not employ any staff. Table 111: Births and deaths of hospitality businesses, 2012 Hotels and similar accommodation Licensed restaurants Unlicensed restaurants Other food service activities Licensed clubs Pubs and bars Births Deaths Births Deaths Births Deaths Births Deaths Births Deaths Births Deaths London 120 95 1,035 1,225 600 455 210 85 45 60 350 440 England 585 725 3,820 4,120 2,205 1,830 660 315 280 540 4,255 5,130 Wales 50 65 190 200 115 125 20 10 20 50 280 365 Scotland 125 155 440 480 215 180 40 35 20 50 365 440 Northern Ireland 5 5 56 75 70 80 10 0 5 15 35 80 TOTAL 885 1,045 5,541 6,100 3,205 2,670 940 445 370 715 5,285 6,455 Source: Business Demography 2012, ONS 172 Institute of Hospitality
Section 6 Fire Statistics SECTION 6.1 Fires in hospitality premises Insider Knowledge You see it here first. Your source of new information previously unavailable. Table 123: Number of fire incidents, hospitality and care industries, 2009-2013 Where fire started Hotel/ Guest House Restaurants Pubs Nursing/ Care/ Retirement Homes Student Halls of Residence Takeaway Food Shops Youth Hostels Kitchen 453 1,123 975 2,248 1,738 904 42 Bedroom 321 - - 454 145-22 Laundry room 172 - - 315 5 1 - Bathroom/toilet 106-136 112 69-9 Corridor/Hall 93 313 131 253 57 15 8 Store room 80 123 287 72 8 85 - Staff room 22 - - 139 14-4 Dining room 46 - - 88 - - - External fittings 41 116 238 39 5 99 1 External structures 51 77 146 25 1 53 2 Utility Room 55 58 132 77 4 14 1 Shop floor - 47 27 - - 280 - Canteen/ staff restaurant - 277 94 - - 201 - Reception area 25 19 105 23 2 12 1 Roof/roof space 60 73 158 32 6 42 3 Boiler/ power house 110 41 57 85 14 16 4 Other 480 333 1,120 542 122 340 26 TOTAL 2,115 2,283 3,606 4,302 2.182 2,070 127 Source: Fire Statistics, Fire Service (Department for Communities and Local Government) Kitchens are clearly the most dangerous place in which to work in the hospitality industry (even more so in the care industry), with bedrooms coming a fairly close second. The figures show that fire can start in almost any part of the building even (not listed here) in lift shafts and motor rooms (105 incidents), indoor swimming pools (seven incidents) and offices (174 incidents). Over the four year period, there were two fatalities in the hotel sector, 17 in care/retirement homes and one in takeaways; in the same period, the hospitality industry averaged 2,500 fire incidents a year (over 4,100 annually if care homes, halls of residence and youth hostels are included) an alarming statistic. The figures relate to incidents where the fire brigade has been called out to attend a fire and does not include false alarms. 181 Institute of Hospitality