Solid State Lighting Market & Applications May 2006
Outline Cree background info LED market & Solid State Lighting Markets Solid State Lighting LED driver needs Discussion, next steps Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 2
Cree Overview Founded in 1987 Headquartered in Durham, NC Locations in California, Vienna, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Taipei and Seoul Largest global producer of InGaN (blue) LED chips 389 Approximately 1400 employees $ Mil. 230 307 177 155 FY2005 revenue $389M 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 3
Cree Technology & Products Full range of highpower packaged LEDs Blue, Green and near UV Light Emitting Diodes Power Switching Diodes RF and Microwave Devices Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 4
LEDs Basic Market Segments Winky Blinky lamps High Brightness LEDs 3 & 5mm main industry work horse >25B units per year sold; TAM ~$4B Primary applications in signs, signals, toys & novelties 99% of mfg in Asia; very low margins 5-20mA drive currents; very low lumen output High Power LEDs First LEDs even close to viable as SSL source High lumen output 50-100x HB LEDs High drive currents 125-1500mA Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 5
A Brief History of Lighting High Brightness InGaN LED 1995 White GaN LED achieves Fluorescent Efficacy (lm/w) 2005 Fluorescent Tube 1901 U.S. 223,898 Original GaAs LED ~1970 s ~1990 High Brightness AlInGaP LED White GaN LED demonstrates 2000 Incandescent Efficacy (lm/w) LED Tail Lamps Debut in 2000 Cadillac Deville 1879 Edison Light Bulb 1919 Sodium Vapor Lamp Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 6
White LED Early Adopters Residential Under cabinet lighting Personal Lighting Sign Backlighting Low Bay Illumination Marketplace expansion as cost and performance metrics continue to cross new thresholds!! Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 7
Solid State Lighting Market S-Curve Base LED Applications LED Market Penetration Big White Applications Time Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 8
High Power Chip Market Shares 2004 2006 est. 4% 3% 5% 1% 13% 99% TAM: ~$80M 95/5 RGB vs. White 75% TAM: ~$200M 70/30 RGB vs. White Lumileds Cree Nichia Osram Other (Cree) Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 9
Roadmap Execution Creates New Applications Efficacy / Lumen per Watt 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2002 OIDA Roadmap Cree - Standard Chip Cree - Pow er Chip 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Continuous chip improvements catalyze more and more applications Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 10
Commercial Examples Today Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 11
Power LED Market* Flux (lm) 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Osram Nichia High Power LEDs Luxeon I XL7090 K2 XR7090 XR7090 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Efficacy (lm/w) Available now Available in June/July * DS Typical @350mA, as of 5/11/2006 Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 12
While Continuously Lowering Costs Standard 2x4 fluorescent Troffer example Fewer, Brighter Lamps Tangible Annual Energy Savings* 160 160 $100 # of 1W LED per FL Fixture 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 # of LED Needed OIDA Roadmap $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Energy Cost Fluorescent Energy Cost LED 0 $- 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 lm/w 0 * 1W, 350mA white LED, 24/7 Operation, $0.05/kwh Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 13
Modular Approach to Big White LED Luminaires # of 1W LED per Stree Light Fixture 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fewer, Brighter Lamps (1W LEDs; Type II Street Light Example) # of LED Needed OIDA Roadmap 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 lm/w BIG White LED Luminaires will require large numbers of power LEDs to generate equivalent quantities of light constant improvements in LED chip technology One means suggestion few chips to lower and cost, lower re-use costs design each resources generation * 1W, 350mA white LED, 24/7 Operation, $0.05/kwh Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 14
Solid State Street Lighting LEDs have inherent advantages over conventional lighting systems: 50,000 hour to 70% lumen maintenance High efficacy (60 LPW) Directionality no wasted light Color white light experience is superior to HPS, may have security/surveillance advantage as well Installed base: > 300 Million fixtures WW Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 15
LED Street Lights Economical Now ~$285USD 350mA 350mA 700mA 700mA Lumens per LED # of LEDs Needed Initial LED Fixture Cost 10-Year HPS Luminaire Cost 10-Year LED Luminaire Cost 40 121 $ 700 $ 1,551 $ 1,906 Time to Cost Parity (payback, years) 50 97 $ 583 $ 1,551 $ 1,550 9.5 60 81 $ 506 $ 1,551 $ 1,313 5.2 70 70 $ 452 $ 1,551 $ 1,150 2.8 80 61 $ 409 $ 1,551 $ 1,017 2.5 90 54 $ 375 $ 1,551 $ 913 2.2 100 49 $ 350 $ 1,551 $ 839 2 110 44 $ 326 $ 1,551 $ 765 1.5 120 41 $ 311 $ 1,551 $ 720 1 XLamp TM XLamp TM (next gen) Assumptions: Global: Type II IESNA roadway light, 0.4fc, 50' x 200' elipse, $0.17/kwh electricity, 10-year luminaire cost based on 1W LED power consumption LED: $2.50 ASP, 85% driver efficiency, $0.40/W driver cost, $0.20/W PWB costs HPS: $35 bulb cost, $150 replacement labor, $250 cobra head fixture Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 16
Key LED Advantage: Maintenance Avoidance, Energy Savings $2,000 Light Source Comparison $1,800 HPS Cummulative Cost $1,600 LED Cummulative Cost $1,400 Cummulative Value Created $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 50LPW 70LPW $- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Assumptions: Type II roadway light (0.4fc IESNA spec, 200 x 50ft ellipse), $0.25/kwh electricity cost, LED: $2.50/LED cost, 70LPW HPS: 100W, 12,000h operation. $150 for service call, $35 for new bulb Analysis concludes a luminaire could be built to this spec that would cost slightly more initially, but pay for itself in maintenance avoidance and energy savings in 2.5 years. At 100LPW (~2 years from now), LED payback is only 1 year Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 17
White Industrial Installed base: ~1.9B fixtures WW Accessible with XLamp @ 70LPW, increasingly compelling up to 90LPW Strong value proposition based on energy savings High Bay HID Warehouse Light Safety/ Environmental Fixture Cost Energy Savings Maintenance CRI/Color Quality Rugged Lifetime Notes White Industrial Key target segment (HID) Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 18
White Industrial XLamp @ 70LPW Light Source Comparison Cummulative costs $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 HID Cummulative Cost LED Cummulative Cost Cummulative Value Created $- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year <2 year payback with current technology (FY2007; 70LPW) at 24h operation. 12h, two year at ~90LPW Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 19
White LED Light Applications Predictions Current applications: Personal Lighting 1 LED per light typical, >70% made in China LED Incandescent Decorative/residential Replacement: ~$30 Several interesting multi-chip applications; tenuous value proposition Next applications will be mainstream, high volume: Street and parking garage lighting 6-12 months Clear & compelling maintenance avoidance value proposition >> 100 million units installed base in US alone 50 100 High Power 1W LEDs per head Low and High Bay HID replacement 12-24 months Clear & compelling energy savings value proposition >> 500 million units installed base in US alone 200-300 High Power 1W LEDs per head Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 20
Cree Solid State Lighting Summary Just a few companies WW have the key white LED technology to make SSL work Cree is the leader LED technology is finally at the tipping point to make Solid State Lighting happen, but SSL is not as easy as screwing in a light bulb Need advanced driver technology, secondary optics, PWB boards, and design houses all pulling in the same direction to make this happen for everyone Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 21
Solid State Lighting Driver Needs May 2006 Lawrence Roberts Applications Engineer
LED Current vs. Voltage T J = +25 o C T J = +25 o C Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 23
Finding the Efficacy Sweet Spot 5000 lumen 5000 K CCT light source* 0.5 W 1W 3W Luminous efficacy per LED (lm/w) 38 47 32 lms/led 20 58 90 # of LEDs needed for 5000 lms 250 87 56 Total LED power (W) 131 106 156 Power consumption (85% dvr eff) 154 125 184 Driver Cost Medium Low High Heat sink Cost Medium Low High LED cost Medium Medium Low 350mA (1W) is the optimal drive current for light output, power dissipation, and overall cost & complexity of design * Data sheet typical specs as of 2/10/2006 Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 24
White Industrial Key Target Segment High Bay HID Warehouse Light Typically needs ~200-300 1W 350mA LEDs Driver should operate from offline power Power factor correction is necessary to meet energy efficiency Low cost is a factor to support LED + Luminaire cost Constant current driver operation is necessary to maintain proper LED operation Driver should operate in-conjunction with LED lifetime characteristics Driver has ESD Class 2 rating > 2000V Driver capable of supplying up to 700mA current & 450W of power. Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 25
White Outdoor Key Target Segment Typically needs ~80 1W 350mA LEDs for this application Driver should be capable of supplying 100W of power Driver should be able to support 1-20 LEDs Constant current source is needed Multi-channel capability would reduce overall system cost Driver should operate with an AC input Power factor correction High driver efficiency Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 26
White Commercial Potential Target Segment Fluorescent Lighting Typically needs ~110 1W 350mA LEDs LED driver should be be able to supply 18-100W of power Constant current Driver should be able to run off AC High driver efficiency, Power factor correction Low cost Driver should allow for dimming control Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 27
A Potential Approach Driver Circuit Generic LED Board Fixed Number Of XLamp LEDs Gen 1 Potential Design Gen 2 Potential Design Equivalent light output every LED generation Built-in cost reduction roadmap Concept re-usable for almost any Big White light application Gen 3 Potential Design MCPCB Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 28
4-PIN Driver IC Proposed LED solution # of LEDs + + I f = Idc AVG 115/220VAC 50/60 Hz - - Constant Current @ 350mA Constant Current @ 500mA Constant Current @ 700mA PFC & Efficiency > 85% & Dimmable Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 29
LED Driver Summary Flashlight Street Lights HID Fluorescent MTTF > 2000hrs +85 o C to -40 o C and has a MTTF > 50,000hrs +85 o C to -40 o C and has a MTTF > 50,000hrs +85 o C to -40 o C and has a MTTF > 50,000hrs Supports alkaline, metal hydroxide, lithium-ion, and lead acid battery applications Driver efficiency ~85% Driver efficiency ~90% Driver efficiency ~90% Low cost DC-DC converter Operate off AC power(115/220v) w/pf correction w/thd < 20% Operate off AC power(115/220v) w/pf correction w/ dimmable off AC w/thd < 20% Dimmable off AC input power Constant current Constant current Constant current High Current capability > 3A High Current capability > 3A High Current capability > 3A Copyright 2006, Cree, Inc. pg. 30