Papeles de Población ISSN: 1405-7425 rpapeles@uaemex.mx Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México México Azuz Adeath, Isaac; Rivera Arriaga, Evelia Estimación del crecimiento poblacional para los estados costeros de México Papeles de Población, vol. 13, núm. 51, enero-marzo, 2007, pp. 187-211 Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Toluca, México Available in: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11205107 How to cite Complete issue More information about this article Journal's homepage in redalyc.org Scientific Information System Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America, the Caribbean, Spain and Portugal Non-profit academic project, developed under the open access initiative
Population growth estimation for the coastal States of Mexico Isaac Azuz Adeath y Evelia Rivera Arriaga Centro de Enseñanza Técnica y Superior. Campus Ensenada/ Universidad Autónoma de Campeche Resumen El presente estudio muestra los resultados derivados de la aplicación de un modelo teórico de crecimiento poblacional (sigmoidal boltziano), construido a partir de la información censal disponible para cada estado costero de México (del año 1930 al 2000). El modelo fue validado y calibrado usando los resultados preliminares del II Conteo de Población y Vivienda del año 2005. Los pronósticos de crecimiento poblacional se realizaron de forma anual para el periodo comprendido entre el año 2006 y el 2030. Para el año 2030 se estima una población total de 58.8 millones de personas en los estados costeros de México. Se estima para este año una población total en los estados costeros de 64.2 millones de personas. Palabras clave: crecimiento poblacional, estimación del crecimiento poblacional, estado costero, México. Abstract Population growth estimation for the coastal states of Mexico This paper shows the results obtained with a theoretical population growth model (sigmoidal boltziano), developed using the census information for each Mexican coastal state (during the period 1930-2000). The model was validated and calibrated using the population counting (2005). The annual population growth forecast comprises the period between 2006 and 2030. For year 2030, a total of 58.8 million people was predicted. With the population counting data of 2005 the sigmoidal model was corrected and a decadal forecast until 2050 was obtained. For the reference year (2050), the total population for the Mexican coastal zone will be 64.2 million people. Key words: population growth, population growth estimation, coastal state, Mexico. Introduction he seventeen Mexican coastal States constitute 56.3 percent of the country s continental surface and they had, in the year 2005, 47 194 599 inhabitants (CONAPO, 2006), this corresponded to 45.8 percent of the Ttotal population. Demographic growth of the Coastal States in general, and in particular of the municipalities with littoral front, constitutes one of the most relevant socio demographic variables from the planning and coastal management points of view, since, among other factors, it allows an estimation of the basic
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM needs to be satisfied, the pressure this process exerts upon the environment and the modification to the risk and vulnerability patterns the population might be exposed to. The changes the total population experiences in a coastal State determine in time changes in vital necessities such as: housing, health and education services; employment, transport and roads; security, leisure and sport areas; supply, piping and availability of water; energy and residues handling. These demographic increment patterns, when take place in closed and defined territorial spaces (States limits), invariably put pressure on the environmental goods and services, modifications to the urban development patterns and their services networks (water, electric light, sewerage, telephone lines, drainage, water treatment plants, etc.), alterations in social structure and relationships, modifications in the consumption and production patterns, to eventually alter in a significant manner the quality of life of the local population. The changes experienced by the local population of the Mexican coastal States and municipalities are a phenomenon which requires special attention to the processes of territorial ordination, coastal integral handling, State and municipal plans of development, programs of regional and urban development, among other planning instruments. The correct interpretation and prediction of the demographic growth patterns allow conceiving, defining, and establishing long term policies, plans, and programs, with a clearer vision of the local needs that have to be satisfied, of the pressure exerted on the environment and of the increment in risks and vulnerability of the regions for which the forecast is made From the long term planning point of view it is equally important to know the number of inhabitants of a region (State or municipality), the rate of change of that number, as well as the population s age structure. This paper is focused on the projections of the growth of the total population of the coastal States of Mexico for the period between the years 2005 and 2030, as a first approach, and up to 2050 with the same model, though corrected, with data from the 2005 Counting of Population and Housing (Conteo de Población y Vivienda 2005). Table 1 shows the total population registered in the Mexican coastal States during the 1980, 1990, 2000 censuses, as well as the 1995 and 2005 population counting; in the case of the latter, with preliminary results (INEGI, 2006; CONAPO, 2006). 176
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera This table shows that Veracruz, in the east coast of the country, has had the highest levels of population in the last thirty years, followed by Jalisco in the west coast. Separately, Baja California Sur with the greatest coasts extension in Mexico, has had in the same period the smallest number of inhabitants and as a consequence of its territorial extension, the lesser population density. In the case of the east coast, Campeche has the smallest number of inhabitants of the slope of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. TABLE 1 TOTAL POPULATION OF THE COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO Estado 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 BC 1 177 886 1 660 855 2 112 140 2 487 367 2 842 199 BCS 215 139 317 764 375 494 424 041 516 764 SON 1 513 731 1 823 606 2 085 536 2 216 969 2 384 251 SIN 1 849 879 2 204 054 2 425 675 2 536 844 2 609 976 NAY 726120 824 643 896 702 920 185 942 589 JAL 4 371 998 5 302 689 5 991 176 6 322 002 6 652 232 COL 346 293 428 510 488 028 542 627 562 277 MICH 2 868 824 3 548 199 3 870 604 3 985 667 3 988 295 GRO 2 109 513 2 620 637 2 916 567 3 079 649 3 116 453 OAX 2 369 076 3 019 560 3 228 895 3 438 765 3 521 715 CHIS 2 084 717 3 210 496 3 584 786 3 920 892 4 255 790 TAM 1 924 484 2 249 581 2 527 328 2 753 222 3 020 225 VER 5 387 680 6 228 239 6 737 324 6 908 975 7 080 731 TAB 1 062 961 1 501 744 1 748 769 1 891 829 2 012 902 CAM 420 553 535 185 642 516 690 689 751 413 YUC 1 063 733 1 362 940 1 556 622 1 658 210 1 802 578 QROO 225 985 493 277 703 536 874 963 1 134 209 Total 29 718 572 37 331 979 41 891 698 44 652 896 47 194 599 Source: INEGI, 2006 and CONAPO, 2006. 177 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM For the coastal States of Mexico, the number of registered population in the year 2000 is inversely related to the average annual demographic growth rate calculated for the period from 1990 to 2000. This means that the States with the most population, have in general, lower growth rates than those which have a smallest number of inhabitants. Graph 1 displays the diagram of dispersion and the parameters of linear regression calculated for the previously mentioned variables. It is assumed that the total population depends on the average annual growth rate. Graph 1 shows that States such as Veracruz and Jalisco, with the highest values of total population (above six million of inhabitants), have demographic growth rates below two, whereas States such as Baja California and Quintana Roo, with populations below three million, have higher average annual demographic growth rates (above four). When performing that very analysis in an independent manner for he States of the west coast (Pacific Littoral and Sea of Cortés) and those of the east coast (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea), the results show a similar behavior, it is, negative linear correlations with little significance between the demographic growth rate and the total population. This phenomenon has important consequences on the type of model to try using to forecast demographic growth, for it can be thought that the States with the most population have reached stages of demographic stability, whereas those with scarce population still experience accelerated growths of exponential character. Graphs 2 and 3 show the behavior of the west and east coasts States, respectively. Table 2 shows the average annual growth rate (percentage), for the different States of Mexico. With the exception of Colima, Chiapas and Oaxaca, all of the coastal States present a deceleration on the average annual growth rate between the periods 1990-1995 and 1995-2000. the total population of a country or a State depends on the phenomena s behavior such as birthrate, mortality and migration (López, 2002). The following graphs and tables show how these processes take place in coastal States. Table 3 shows the correlation matrix between total population in the year 2005, the gross birthrate in that year, the average annual growth rate between the years 1990 and 2000 and the percentage in respect to the average national total of the registered casualties, during the years 2001 to 2004. 178
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera GRAPH 1 RELATION BETWEEN AVERAGE POPULATION GROWTH RATE DURING THE 1990-2000 PERIOD AND TOTAL POPULATION OF THE COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO IN 2000 Source: INEGI on line (2006). Author s model. The little significant correlation between the total population and the gross birthrate, as the inverse relation between total population and the average annual growth rate, could clearly state the importance of the migratory processes in the Mexican coastal States. In order to visualize this phenomenon, graph 5 displays, for every coastal state the net migratory rate (immigrants-emigrants) registered in the 2000 census (INEGI, 2001). In table 4 the correlation matrix, which results from incorporating the net migration measured during the year 2000, is presented. The rest of the variables have been previously defined. 179 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM GRAPH 2 RELATION BETWEEN THE ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH RATE DURING THE 1990-2000 PERIOD AND THE TOTAL POPULATION OF THE WEST COAST STATES OF MEXICO IN 2000 7,000,000 Relación entre la Población Total (2000) y la Tasa de Crecimiento Poblacional Media Anual (1990-2000) COSTA OESTE (Fuente: INEGI en línea,2006) 6,000,000 JAL Población Total (2000) 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 R 2 = 0.069 r= -0.264 a 0 = 3,741,713 a 1 = -517,607 BC 1,000,000 0 NAY COL BCS 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Tasa Crecimiento Media Anual (1990-2000) Source: INEGI on line (2006). Author s model. Table 2 shows that the average annual growth rate registered in the Mexican coastal States has an important positive correlation with the net migratory flow. Conversely, the total population registered in the year 2000 has a moderated negative correlation with the said migratory flow. This phenomenon is explained by the fact that not necessarily the States with the most (least) population are the ones with the greatest (lesser) gain of migratory inhabitants. The similarity between the Mexican coastal states behavior in terms of the variables involved in the correlation matrixes can be graphically described by means of a tree diagram, using in the grouping, as a measure of the resemblance among States, the Euclidian distance and the coefficient of linear correlation. 180
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera GRAPH 3 RELATION BETWEEN THE ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH RATE DURING THE 1990-2000 PERIOD AND THE TOTAL POPULATION OF THE EAST COAST STATES OF MEXICO IN 2000 7000000 6000000 VER Relación entre la Población Total (2000) y la Tasa de Crecimiento Poblacional Media Anual (1990-2000) COSTA ESTE (Fuente: INEGI en línea,2006) Población Total (2000) 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 CAM R 2 = 0.380 r= -0.617 a 0 = 4,715,625 a 1 = -860,883 QROO -1000000 1 2 3 4 5 6 Tasa Crecimiento Media Anual (1990-2000) Source: INEGI on line (2006). Author s model. The differences observed between the two grouping methods are fundamentally due to the fact that while the Euclidian distance incorporates the difference among each analysis point (comparison among the studied demographic variables of the coastal States), the groups formed using the Pearsons coefficient of correlation are determined by the level of linear correlation existent among the set of selected variables. Finally, in respect to the demographic structure of the coastal States in terms of age, Guerrero, Chiapas, Oaxaca and Michoacán have the highest percentage of young people (0 to 14 years of age); Baja California Sur, Sonora and Tamaulipas, the highest percentage values of people between 15 and 64 years of age, whereas Yucatán, Nayarit and Jalisco have the highest percentage of people of 65 years of age and older. Graph 8 shows this behavior. 181 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM TABLE 2 PERCENTAGE ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH RATE State 1990-1995 1995-2000 1990-2000 Mexico 2 1.6 1.8 Aguascalientes 3.2 2.1 2.7 Baja California 4.3 3.8 4.1 Baja California Sur 3 2.8 2.9 Campeche 3.2 1.7 2.6 Coahuila 1.7 1.3 1.5 Colima 2.3 2.5 2.4 Chiapas 2 2.1 2 Chihuahua 2.4 2.1 2.2 Distrito Federal 0.5 0.3 0.4 Durango 1 0.3 0.7 Guanajuato 1.8 1.3 1.6 Guerrero 1.9 1.3 1.6 Hidalgo 2 1.3 1.7 Jalisco 2.2 1.3 1.8 México 3.1 2.6 2.9 Michoacán 1.5 0.7 1.2 Morelos 3.3 1.8 2.7 Nayarit 1.5 0.6 1.1 Nuevo León 2.4 1.8 2.1 Oaxaca 1.2 1.5 1.3 Puebla 2 2.2 2.1 Querétaro 3.1 2.7 2.9 Quintana Roo 6.3 5.1 5.8 San Luis Potosí 1.7 1 1.4 Sinaloa 1.7 1 1.4 Sonora 2.4 1.4 2 Tabasco 2.7 1.8 2.3 Tamaulipas 2.1 2 2 Tlaxcala 2.6 2 2.4 Veracruz 1.4 0.6 1 Yucatán 2.3 1.5 2 Zacatecas 0.8 0.3 0.6 Source: INEGI, 1992, 1997, 2001. 182
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera TABLE 3 CORRELATION MATRIX AMONG DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES FOR THE COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO Total population Birthrate Demographic growth Casualties (%) Total population 1.0000-0.0259-0.4153 0.9880 Birthrate -0.0259 1.0000 0.2191-0.1254 Demographic growth -0.4153 0.2191 1.0000-0.4611 % of casualties 0.9880-0.1254-0.4611 1.0000 With this general view of the demographic structure of the coastal States we will proceed, in the next part, to describe the methodology utilized to forecast the total population growth in the Mexican coastal States for the next twenty-five years, using a model of the Boltzian Sigmoidal type. Additionally and with the information of the II Counting of Population and Tenement of the year 2005, the model was calibrated and the forecast was extended up to the year 2050. Methodology Demographic growth has been modeled from the mathematical point of view out of deterministic models, such as the logistical equation (Pearl and Read, 1920; Zill, 2006:103-107), which is considered by different authors as a model that allows a wide range of applications and, in general, it has been accepted as a good first approximation to the phenomenon of growth of species with no competence (Maki and Thompson, 1973: 302-318, and Marchetti et al., 1996:1-30). In the present study data from the General Censuses of Population and Housing (Censos Generales de Población y Vivienda, INEGI, 2006) carried out every ten years, from 1930 to 2000 were used. The definitive results from the Counting of Population carried out in 1995 were included. 183 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM GRAPH 4 GROSS BIRTHRATE (PERCENTAGE) FOR THE COASTAL STATES IN 2005 Source: data from CONAPO, 2005. Using these values for each coastal State and after performing different proofs it was proposed as the general model with the best adjustment that of Boltzian Sigmoidal type. The said model is tetraparametric and in it both the inflection point and the maximum mark of the demographic curve are included (Ledvij, 2003). It has been utilized in different spheres to model the growth of specific populations (Zullinger et al., 1984: 607-636), their dynamics (Carrillo, 2003:121-126) and the growth of the world s population (Ausubel and Meyer, 1994:17-19) among others. 184
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera GRÁPH 5 NET MIGRATORY BALANCE (IMMIGRANTS-EMIGRANTS) REGISTERED IN 2000 FOR THE COASTAL STATES Source: INEGI, 2001. The equation of the Boltzian Sigmoidal model can be expressed as follows: y = A A x x + e 1 2 ( 0 )/ dx 1 + A 2 Being y the estimated population, A 1 and A 2 the inferior and superior marks of the curve or asymptotes, respectively; x 0 the abscissa of the inflection point and x the independent variable. Taking as elements of adjustment validation both the values of squared qui as the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), in general, all of the States had an excellent level of adjustment in respect to the proposed theoretical model (values above 0.99), being the highest value that of Baja California Sur (R 2 =0.99984), and the lowest that of Chiapas (R 2 =0.99548). 185 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM TABLE 4 MATRIX OF CORRELATION AMONG DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES FOR THE COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO Total population Birthrate Demographic growth Casualties (%) Migration Total population 1.0000-0.0259-0.4153 0.9880-0.4079 Birthrate -0.0259 1.0000 0.2191-0.1254-0.1411 Demographic growth -0.4153 0.2191 1.0000-0.4611 0.7439 Percentage of casualties 0.9880-0.1254-0.4611 1.0000-0.4384 Migration -0.4079-0.1411 0.7439-0.4384 1.0000 BC QROO BCS SON COL TAM CAM SIN NAY CHIS TAB VER YUC MICH GRO OAX JAL GRAPH 6 GROUP ANALYSIS USING THE COEFFICIENT OF CORRELATION OF PEARSONS (1-R) AS SIMILITUDE ELEMENT GROUP ANALYSIS COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO METHOD (1-Pearson r) 0 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 LESSER SIMILITUDE LEVEL ---> 186
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera BC TAM SON SIN TAB YUC MICH CHIS GRO OAX BCS COL CAM NAY QROO JAL VER GRAPH 7 GROUP ANALYSIS USING EUCLIDEAN DISTANCE AS SIMILITUDE ELEMENT GROUP ANALYSIS COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO METHOD (Euclidean Distance) 0 500000 1e6 1.5e6 2e6 2.5e6 0 500000 1e6 1.5e6 2e6 2.5e6 LESSER SIMILITUDE LEVEL ---> With the confidence of having a model that correctly adjusts the data, we proceeded to perform the forecast for the year 2005 (specifically for the middle of each year, with the aim to be congruent with CONAPO s estimations). Once the preliminary results from the II Counting of Population and Housing of the year 1995 were known, the results form the model were verified and contrasted to the predictions annually performed by the National Council of Population up to the year 2030. Graph 4 presents the percentage relative error produced in respect to the year 2005 measurement, for both CONAPO s (1999) and the proposed sigmoidal model s estimations. Once the error in the prediction for each State in relation to the average value for the year 2005 is known, there exists the option to adjust the model with the aim to perform estimations that can be potentially more accurate. It is observed in graph 9 that the average percentage relative error of the Boltzian Sigmoidal model is slightly inferior to that of the method utilized by CONAPO (1999). Table 5 shows the values of the coefficient of determination R 2 obtained from the adjustment process of the model hereby presented (Boltzian Sigmoidal). 187 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM GRAPH 8 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE COASTAL STATES BY LARGE AGE GROUPS FOR THE YEAR 2000 Results Source: INEGI, 2006. The values obtained for the Mexican coastal States total population for the periods 2010, 2020, and 2030, using CONAPO estimations and the sigmoidal model are shown in table 6. In the aforementioned table it is observed that the total population expected in the States with littoral front in Mexico for the year 2030 will be close to 60 million people. Approximately 70 percent will live in the west coast and 30 percent in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea s littoral. The current percentages (2005) are 67 and 33, respectively. 188
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera Jalisco, in the west coast, and Veracruz in the east will be the coastal States that will have a larger population in the next thirty years. On its own, Baja California Sur, Colima and Campeche will not reach one million inhabitants within the next thirty years. Graphs 10, 11 and 12 show the behavior of the demographic growth, measured and estimated, with the sigmoidal model for specific cases where the following is observed: 1. Stability in the growth levels (better adequacy to the sigmoidal method). 2. An abrupt diminution of the growth tendencies (greater model error). 3. A clear growth process with exponential character (possible adequacy of other methods). The estimation done with the sigmoidal model for the year 2005 in Sinaloa had a percentage relative error in respect to the value measured in the counting of population of 0.26 percent, being altogether with Yucatán, the States which presented values closer to reality. For Sinaloa it is observed that the stability value is found around 2 750 000 inhabitants. The analysis of the demographic shows that, in general, there are three mechanisms that stabilize the curve of demographic growth, namely: diminution in birthrate, increment in mortality rate, and increment in immigration. For Sinaloa, during the year 2003, there was a gross birthrate of 18.3, being the national average 18.4 and that of the coastal States 19.7 (INEGI, 2006); in Sinaloa, the average annual growth rate suffered an important deceleration changing from 1.7 in the 1990-1995 period to 1 during the 1995-2000 period. For the year 2003, casualties registered in Sinaloa were 11 040, which corresponded to 2.34 of the national total, this was a similar value to that of Baja California, Sonora and Guerrero. For the year 2000, Sinaloa reported a negative net migration rate of around 160 000 people, which implies a larger number of emigrants than of immigrants (INEGI, 2006). Graph 11 displays the behavior of the total population of Michoacán. This State had the greatest differences (both in the sigmoidal model and in CONAPO estimations) among the forecasted values and the ones measured in 2005. 189 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM GRAPH 9 PERCENTAGE RELATIVE ERROR AMONG THE VALUES MEASURED IN THE SECOND POPULATION COUNTING AND THE ESTIMATED BY CONAPO (1999) AND WITH THE BOLTZIAN-SIGMOIDAL MODEL Source: Second Counting of Population and Households (2005) and CONAPO (1999). For Michoacán, the gross birthrate was similar to the average of the coastal States for the year 2005 (1.8), nevertheless, the average annual growth rate decreased from 1.5 percent in 1990-1995 to only 0.7 percent for the 1995-2000 period. Additionally, Michoacán was the third coastal state from which the most people emigrated. Baja California had the largest net migratory flow of all the coastal States in Mexico. Its birthrate is exactly the same as the national average and slightly inferior to that of the coastal States. After Quintana Roo, it presented the greatest growth rate for the in the period from 1990 to 2000 in all of the States of Mexico. 190
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera TABLE 5 VALUES OF THE DETERMINATION COEFFICIENT OF THE BOLTZIAN-SIGMOIDAL MODEL FOR EACH COASTAL STATE Coast West Coast East State R2 State R2 BC 0.99680 TAM 0.99841 BCS 0.99984 VER 0.99890 SON 0.99854 TAB 0.99911 SIN 0.99881 CAM 0.99737 NAY 0.99892 YUC 0.99847 JAL 0.99907 QROO 0.99952 COL 0.99895 MICH 0.99875 GRO 0.99973 OAX 0.99732 CHIS 0.99548 In spite the percentage relative error registered for Baja California with the sigmoidal model is very close to the average value, and the difference shown against the calibration value (population in the year 2005) its magnitude is three percent, the growth pattern is still clearly exponential, as it is seen in graph 12, there can exist more simple and possibly more exact models to perform the forecast in this case. If the sigmoidal model is accepted as correct, and if the current tendencies continue, Baja California would be in the year 2050 the most densely populated in Mexico (with approximately 11 million people), surpassing Jalisco and Veracruz with about four million people. 191 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM TABLE 6 ESTIMATED VALUES OF THE TOTAL POPULATION FOR THE COASTAL STETS OF MEXICO Author CONAPO 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 BC 3 519 021 4 829 530 6 521 862 3 346 657 4 138 565 4 864 276 BCS 494 879 529 904 546 065 566 904 692 379 805 327 SON 2 460 923 2 611 274 2 701 191 2 670 917 3 012 160 3 301 830 SIN 2 679 970 2 743 058 2 770 447 2 879 690 3 061 637 3 182 337 NAY 970 554 993 469 1 004 718 1 027 156 1 074 168 1 099 697 JAL 7 011 446 7 414 172 7 650 240 7 067 743 7 479 485 7 733 119 COL 622 830 681 097 719 925 626 679 691 397 740 610 MICH 4 422 653 4 655 947 4 797 138 4 276 644 4 327 113 4 300 893 GRO 3 435 669 3 638 684 3 757 381 3 294 329 3 310 700 3 267 235 OAX 4 005 068 4 454 678 4 825 338 3 816 870 3 962 397 4 022 105 CHIS 4 826 059 5 425 800 5 824 780 4 699 370 5 220 030 5 639 988 TAM 3 062 833 3 300 813 3 467 450 3 441 570 3 953 549 4 382 058 VER 7 228 620 7 349 771 7 400 371 7 378 261 7 467 895 7 427 933 TAB 2 244 650 2 452 860 2 576 253 2 184 350 2 389 020 2 538 074 CAM 779 865 824 139 845 654 837 593 955 823 1 056 688 YUC 1 910 812 2 052 117 2 132 615 1 923 530 2 148 744 2 342 080 QROO 1 172 818 1 300 297 1 347 271 1 283 883 1 663 733 2 008 755 Total 50 848 67155 257 611 58 888 700 51 322 146 55 548 795 58 713 005 Source: CONAPO (1999) and the sigmoidal model proposed by the author. Graph 13 shows the estimations up to the year 2050 for Baja California, Jalisco and Veracruz. It is clearly observed that as from the year 2040 Baja California would have a greater population than the two coastal States which currently take the first places in population (Jalisco and Veracruz). Table 7, presents the estimated values up to the year 2050 with the adjusted sigmoidal model, using as correction factor the values registered in the year 2005 during the II Counting of Population and Housing (CONAPO, 2006). 192
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera GRAPH 10 VALUES MEASURED BY MEANS OF THE SIGMOIDAL MODEL FOR THE STATE OF SINALOA (1930-2030) Source: Measured data (INEGI, 2006) and author s model. Conclusions Demographic changes taking place in the coastal States of Mexico are only a small part of the variables that must be considered when performing long term planning studies tending to the sustainable development of the coastal zone. In terms of large figures, Mexico s total population experienced an increment of 5 604 609 inhabitants between the years 2000 and 2005. 45.3 percent of the said increment took place in the coastal States (2 541 703 inhabitants). 193 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM GRAPH 11 MEASURED AND ESTIMATED VALUES BY MEANS OF THE SIGMOIDAL MODEL FOR THE STATE OF MICHOACAN (1930-2030) Source: measured data (INEGI, 2006) and author s model. The seven States with the most absolute growth in Mexico during that period contributed with 53.5 percent of the demographic increment registered. Baja California, Chiapas, Jalisco and Tamaulipas are coastal States that belong to this group. The coastal State that contributed the least to the country s growth was Michoacán, with a demographic growth of only 2 628 inhabitants. This phenomenon is the result of the important immigration that takes place in the State. In terms of the projection of demographic growth, the Boltzian Sigmoidal used in this research presented for all the coastal States in general a good adjustment in respect to the value measured in the year 2005. 194
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera GRAPH 12 MASURED AND ESTIMATD VALUES BY MEANS OF THE SIGMOIDAL MODEL FOR THE SATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA (1930-2030) Source: measured data (INEGI, 2006) and author s model. A total population of 58.8 million people is estimated for the coastal States for the year 2030 (unadjusted method) and of 64.2 million for the year 2050 (adjusted model). If these estimations are confirmed, the Mexican coastal States population would increase seven times in the period between 1930 and 2030. This would mean that the pressure on the natural resources, goods and services needs would be increased, at least, in the same proportion. At a finer level of analysis, the study of the demographic dynamics must be taken both to the municipal level (as a second approach) and to the level of local communities. Unfortunately we only have censual information at municipal level and communities for the years 1990 and 2000 (data from 1980 were lost in the 1985 earthquake), this imposes severe restrictions from the point of view of the information statistical handling. 195 January / March 2007
Papeles de POBLACIÓN No. 51 CIEAP/UAEM GRAPH 13 DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH FORECAST UNTIL THE YEAR 2050 FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA, JALISCO AND VERACRUZ USING THE BOLTZIAN-SIGMOIDAL MODEL Source: measured data (INEGI, 2006) and author s model. It is clear, from the performed analysis, that the national environmental policy for the sustainable development of seas and coasts, as well as the programs and plans of integral coastal management that come out of this policy, the marine and coastal organization processes performed or decreed, the environmental impact studies performed or evaluated, and the Mexican Official Regulations established, must take in consideration, in a special manner, the demographic changes experienced by the coastal States of Mexico. 196
Population growth estimulation for the coastal States of Mexico / I. Azuz and E.Rivera TABLE 7 ESTIMATED AND MEASURED VALUES (2010-2050) FOR THE MEXICAN COASTAL STATES USING THE SIGMOIDAL MODEL ADJUSTED FROM THE COUNTING S DATA, 2005 Period West coast East coast Both coasts 1930 5 596 901 2 426 701 8 023 602 1940 6 488 781 2 891 222 9 380 003 1950 8 253 781 3 787 078 12 040 859 1960 11 197 909 5 080 858 16 278 767 1970 14 951 521 7 138 668 22 090 189 1980 19 633 176 10 085 396 29 718 572 1990 24 961 013 12 370 966 37 331 979 1995 27 975 603 13 916 095 41 891 698 2000 29 875 008 14 777 888 44 652 896 2005 31 392 541 15 802 058 47 194 599 2010 33 534 905 16 548 152 50 083 056 2020 36 953 527 17 443 246 54 396 773 2030 39 992 457 17 940 129 57 932 586 2040 42 789 522 18 203 503 60 993 026 2050 45 854 067 18 359 876 64 213 943 Source: measured data INEGI and CONAPO. Estimated data from the author s Sigmoidal model. 197 January / March 2007
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