Monitoring the youth situation within the labour market (polish regions example) Cracow, 11 October 2012
THE PRIMARY AIM OF PRESENTATION: The aim of today's presentation is to present results of the work on development of the MODEL for MONITORING the YOUTH SITUATION within THE LABOUR MARKET MODEL
AGENDA Speaker: Edyta Dąbrowska 1. ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET Issues relating to young people in EU Strategic documents European Network on Regional Labour Market Monitoring idea of the regional model for the monitoring of the situation of young people in the labour market 2. CONCEPT OF THE MODEL Speaker: Katarzyna Antończak 3. Key indicators : Employment (identyfication of the research problem, indicators, challenges in exploration of the field); Unemployment ( a.b.); 4. Context indicators: Education (a.b.);
AGENDA Speaker: Marta Sosnowska Context indicators: Demography (a. b.); Social Activity (a. b.); Family and Living Conditions (a. b.); 5. Electronic tool present ing the concept of the model. 6. Recommendations
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET The worsening situation of the youth within the labour market triggered particular interest from the European Commission to seek ideas helping to change this state of affairs.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET Council Resolution of 27 November 2009 on a renewed framework for European cooperation in the youth field (2009/C 311/01) (2010-2018)5 is about the adoption of the communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions entitled An EU strategy for youth Investing and Empowering. A renewed open method of coordination to address youth challenges and opportunities. It sets two main aims behind the action for the youth until 2018: creation of more and equal opportunities for all young people in education and within the labour market and promotion of the active citizenship, social inclusion and solidarity of all young people. In pursuance of the Strategy, the Council of Europe invited the Commission to set up a working group to discuss, in consultation with relevant policy felds, existing data on the situation of young people and the possible need for development of indicators in fields in which they do not exist.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET The indicators developed were published in the Commission Staff Working Document of 25 March 2011. Within 8 fields of young people s activity, 40 indicators were selected for monitoring. These are presented at the level of the different Member States and updated by Eurostat once a year.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET There are, however, exceptionally strong regional differences even within Members States themselves. Thus, the effectiveness of policies is strictly correlated with their adaptation to address regional problems. Cohesion in this regard cannot be achieved without knowledge of the situation of young people regionally.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET The problem of access to information, at the regional level, about the position of this group was raised by the European Network on Regional Labour Market Monitoring. Developing a set of key and context indicators, the Network initiated work on devising a model for the monitoring of young people s situation within the labour market at this level of data aggregation The initiative was put into the hands of Polish labour market observatories.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET The work on the model commenced on 18 December 2011, during an organisational meeting held at the Regional Labour Office in Rzeszów. It initiated the establishment of a working group responsible for designing the model, set a preliminary timetable and the working method. The Declaration on the partnership to develop a model for the monitoring of the young people s people within the labour market was finally signed in April 2012by the seven Regional Labour Offices which had declared their intention to participate in the working group. The task of coordinating the group s effort was assumed by the Regional Labour Office in Białystok.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET The following institutions participated in the work: 1. Regional Labour Office in Białystok (Labour Market and Economic Forecast Observatory of Podlasie) Working group s leader, 2. Regional Labour Office in Gdańsk, 3. Regional Labour Office in Kraków (Labour Market and Education Observatory of Małopolska), 4. Regional Labour Office in Poznań (Labour Market Observatory of Wielkopolska), 5. Regional Labour Office in Rzeszów (Labour Market Observatory of Podkarpacie), 6. Regional Labour Office in Szczecin, 7. Regional Labour Office in Warsaw (Department of Labour Market Observatory of Mazowsze).
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET The model was created in close collaboration with members of the European Network on Regional Labour Market Monitoring (ENRLMM) who in their role as mentors Contributed significantly with their experience to directing the group s work and its attainment of positive effects.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET The work on the model was done in a two-fold manner. Conceptual work was carried out in the form of workshops organised at the Regional Labour Offices working group members. Each conceptual meeting was followed by a period of work done independently by group members representatives of the different Regional Labour Offices.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET During the meeting in Białystok, in February 2012, the group selected six fields for the monitoring of young people s situation within the labour market. These included: a) demography, b) unemployment, c) employment, d) education, e) family and living conditions, and f) social activity.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET Institution Field of work Gdańsk Poznań Kraków Warszawa & Rzeszów Szczecin Białystok Unemployment Employment Education Family and living cocditions Social activity Demography
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET Each subgroup was given the task of setting the research hypothesis and defining the methodology of the research to be done to confirm or refute it. Generally, the basic method was assumed to be desk research into existing data from public statistic data. However, the option was envisaged to propose, during the course of the work, the concept of gathering specific data in field surveys.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET During the next meeting in Warsaw in April 2012, a preliminary set of indicators was adopted as proposed by the different Regional Labour Offices within the previously identified fields. The original set comprised 65 indicators selected on the basis of the statistical data available and regular surveys done as part of public statistics.
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET In order to ensure due procedure for the selection of the diagnostic variables, the set of potential indicators was submitted to third party experts for evaluation. The internet questionnaire used for this purpose had been designed by the Regional Labour Office in Szczecin. During the conceptual meeting in Rzeszów in June 2012, the results of the questionnaire survey were summarised. The scoring results became the working material for the group s experts who, on that basis and also as a result of consultations with ENRLMM representatives, took 31 measures and indicators for analysis.
CONCEPT OF THE MODEL The concept divided the fields of analysis into KEY and CONTEXT ones. The key fields were unemployment and employment being the ones which provide a direct illustration of the situation of young people within the labour market. The other four fields were qualified as contextual. Thus, an assumption was made that the phenomena going on in the contextual fields had an effect on the measures and indicators relating to the situation of young people measured in the fields of employment and unemployment.
DIAGRAM OF THE MODEL
ORIGIN OF THE WORK ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL FOR MONITORING THE SITUATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET Major issues: Model developed by the group was based on Polish realities. The group put huge effort into accessing a variety of data from public statistics sources (often unpublished), in order to identify possibilities of obtaining indicators which would enable observation of the changes in young people s situation within the labour market. The working group did a stock-taking exercise to list knowledge shortages in the different research felds for the model s territory (e.g. Poland) and identified the gaps which make it considerably difficult to analyse young people s situation within the labour market. Identification of the gaps and methodical problems enables determination of the directions for developing the model which cannot be deemed to have been completed. It also enables informed planning of activities to ensure the source of input into databases and model improvement.
EMPLOYMENT - BACKGROUND 2011 Employment rate UE 27 age group 15-64 = 64,3% age group 15-24 = 33,5% but UE 27 < UE 27
EMPLOYMENT - INDICATORS Young people s employment rate Economic activity rate School leavers taking up their first jobs School leavers taking up their first jobs by school type Average gross monthly pay Individuals aged 18-29 engaging in business operations Young people s status of employment in the labour market
EMPLOYMENT INFORMATION GAPS Average gross monthly pay data available every 2 years, data not available at regional level (NUTS 2) Young people s status of employment in the labour market based on data collected as part of a survey co-financed from the ESF continuity of its collection raises concerns data available every 2 years no certainty as to the representativity of the survey results at the regional level
UNEMPLOYMENT - BACKGROUND 2011 Unemployment rate UE 27 age group 15-74 = 9,7% age group 15-24 = 21,4% but UE 27 > UE 27
UNEMPLOYMENT - INDICATORS Rate of unemployment Unemployed as a percentage of the total number of unemployed (LFS) Unemployed as a percentage of total unemployment (registered unemployment) Number of unemployed Unemployment fluctuations ratio Unemployed by education Unemployed without work experience Long-term unemployed
UNEMPLOYMENT - INFORMATION GAPS delays in the publication of the data obtained as part of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) majority of indicators basis on local labour offices data
EMPLOYMENT / UNEMPLOYMENT INFORMATION GAP demand for labour surveyed on the ad hoc basis relying on various methods devised by the survey authors common approach to information gathering, e.g.: assessing demand for employees evaluation the job opportunities of representatives of the occupations in which education is pursued monitoring of deficit and surplus jobs in the region
EDUCATION - BACKGROUND a general trend towards more years of full-time compulsory schooling number of tertiary education students increases high rate of early schoolleavers Source: Eurydice Key data on Education in Europe 2012
EDUCATION - INDICATORS Early leavers from education and training Upper secondary vocational students Graduates by field of education Vocational exam pass rate Participation of young people in education and training Youth by educational attainment
EDUCATION - INFORMATION GAPS Early leavers from education and training data not available at regional level (NUTS 2) Participation of young people in education and training, Youth by educational attainment data by age group (15-34) not available Polish Central Statistical Office (CSO) calculated indicators on the basis of LFS data indicators require caution in interpretation due to the detailed partitioning ascheme is necessary to be devised in order to obtain data for all regions
DEMOGRAPHY
DEMOGRAPHY IDENTIFICATION OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEMS INDICATORS INFORMATION GAPS OF DEMOGRAPHY
DEMOGRAPHY IDENTIFICATION OF RESEARCH PROBLEM There is a regular loss of labour resources represented by young people. Societies are ageing thus determining irreversible changes in social and economic processes throughout Europe. Problems are increasing which relate to growing social expenses, the labour potential is shrinking, and the domination of elderly people makes the economy lose its dynamism and natural inclination towards change. To date, Poland has experienced a surplus of young people but waves of baby booms are now receding to make room for regular drop in birth rates, putting the country in the category of ageing societies. Dropping birth rates pose a threat to the reproducibility of populations, including also the replaceability of generations in the labour market. The adverse demographic population structure is additionally aggravated by uncontrolled waves of foreign migrations, and the absence of a reliable system to enable the monitoring of migration processes makes it difficult to pursue an effective demographic policy.
DEMOGRAPHY INDICATORS Name Description Population (total, women, men, urban, rural) by age group: 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34 Population group aged 15 to 34 by age group: 15-34, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34 (total, women, men, urban, rural) Data source: Local Data Bank, CSO, Population by age and gender group, Balance tables available from Statistical Offices. Demographic Yearbooks, CSO. Percentages of population by age group: 15-34, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34 per 1000 inhabitants Age-specific fertility rate by age group, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34 The indicator presents people in the 15 to 34 and in the 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34 age groups as a proportion of total population. Data source: Local Data Bank, Baza Demografia (Demographic Database), Balance tables available from Statistical Offices, Demographic Yearbooks, CSO. Number of live births in the period concerned given by women in the age group concerned as a proportion of the total number of women in the same age group. Data source: Demographic Yearbooks, CSO.
DEMOGRAPHY INFORMATION GAPS OF DEMOGRAPHY Included in the model Not included in the model Included in the model: there are any shorcomings Not included in the model: Absence of reliable data illustrating the phenomenon of young people s migration, including the identification of its causes. The data in public statistics is based on figures on registration for, and changes in permanent residence address, do not take account of actual migration movements.
SOCIAL ACTIVITY
SOCIAL ACTIVITY IDENTIFICATION OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEMS INDICATORS INFORMATION GAPS OF SOCIAL ACTIVITY
SOCIAL ACTIVITY IDENTIFICATION OF RESEARCH PROBLEMS Young people are characterised by a low level of social activity Social activity of young people is one of the key elements which shape a qualified employee. In addition to the learned occupation (occupational qualifications) the employee s qualities which are increasingly frequently desired (sought) include reliability, commitment and honesty. Such qualities may be acquired through involvement in community life. This may be membership of a non-governmental organisation, association, club or religious movement, as well as participation in various forms of voluntary work.
Name Synthetic social activity indicator SOCIAL ACTIVITY INDICATOR Description
SOCIAL ACTIVITY INFORMATION GAPS OF SOCIAL ACTIVITY Included in the model: The social activity indicator was developed specially for the purposes of the model as a synthetic indicator comprising 4 social activity fields. The detailed indicators as part of the indicator s component relating to culture are not presented at the regional level, and hence it cannot be fully implemented. The reporting period which determines data availability is different from the other fields. The data is presented every 2 years, whilst in the other fields it is provided annually or more frequently. There is a concern as to the keeping of continuity of access to data (the main data source, Social Diagnosis, is an ESF-financed survey). The sample in the survey which is the basis for developing the indicator is representative of the region s and not of young people s population (following the definition of the young person adopted in the model), even though the data obtained during the course of the survey is presented by age category.
FAMILY AND LIVING CONDITIONS
FAMILY AND LIVING CONDITIONS IDENTIFICATION OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEMS INDICATORS INFORMATION GAPS OF SOCIAL ACTIVITY
FAMILY AND LIVING CONDITIONS IDENTIFICATION OF RESEARCH PROBLEM Regions are characterised by different financial statuses of families residing there. The lower the family affluence level the higher the rate of youth unemployment in the region. The rate of employment amongst young disabled is lower than the figure for the total population of young people. The number of young people with disabilities in Poland is different within regions. This drop is accompanied by a decrease in the employment rate for this social category.
Source: Labour Force Survey, CSO. FAMILY AND LIVING CONDITIONS INDICATORS Name Description Household s available income At-risk-of-povertyrate (after social transfers) Population in households using social assistance Households equipped with certain durable goods (computer, computer with Internet access, printer, passenger car, mobile phone) Disabled people The total of the household s current income less advances on personal income tax deducted by the employer on behalf of the tax-payer, taxes paid on property income, taxes paid by self-employed persons, including freelance professionals and persons using private farm in agriculture, and social security and health insurance contributions. Source: Local Data Bank (CSO). Percentage of people whose equivalent available income is lower than the poverty line set at 60% of the national median of equivalent annual available income. Source: Local Data Bank (CSO). Persons in households using social assistance benefits as a percentage of total population Source: Local Data Bank (CSO). CSO s publication: Social assistance - infrastructure, beneficiaries, benefits in 2010 The unit for analysis is a household with one or more than one persons. The selected durable goods are: computer, computer with Internet access, printer, passenger car, mobile phone. The choice is made arbitrarily based on the criterion of direct or indirect enhancement of the family s position in the labour market through an increase in the communication and mobile potential. Source: CSO s publication Household budget surveys in 2010. Local Data Bank (CSO). Notes: Complex indicator. The data in the indicator come from opinion polls done by the CSO on a representative sample, providing information on the percentage of the total number of households furnished with selected durable goods. The indicator itself is expressed numerically as the ratio of the total of the number of households in possession of the different durable goods to the quantity of such durables. Number of people with disabilities aged 15-34. These include people who have been awarded decisions on the disability degree or inability to work. The indicators include: frequency of occurrence of disabled people in Poland and number of people in this social category per 1000 inhabitants aged 15 and more, as well as the employment rate.
FAMILY AND LIVING CONDITIONS INFORMATION GAPS OF FAMILY AND LIVING CONDITIONS Included in the model: Disabled people: public statistics do not aggregate data by administrative unit (region); this is most likely due to the fact that the survey on the basis of which the indicator is set is not representative. Households: absence of data on the structure of households taking account of the age categories of its members.
DATA PRESENTATION
DATA PRESENTATION DATABASE - DASHBOARD Dashboard contains: Metadate: name of the indicator, availability, visualization, definition, source and the linking index card ; Database contain indicators in the coming years, within every regions, presented by individual areas.
CONCEPT OF THE MODEL Dashboard is based on the concept of data presentation used by Eurostat for presenting the indicators for the Youth Strategy (2010-2018). Dashboard is available on the website: Monitoring the Youth Situation Within the Labour Market, on the home page Economic Forecast Observatory of Podlasie, at: http://www.obserwatorium.up.podlasie.pl/index.php/strony/9826
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS As regards further activities relating to the model, the working group recommends: taking measures to get access to the data identified here in as information gaps, in particular the data which goes beyond the research fields covered by the model (the demand side of the labour market and young people s migrations); implementation of the model in other European countries, to comprise: establishment of cooperation to extend or detail the specific indicators illustrating the phenomena which are intensifying in other countries regions and which are not noted in Poland, identification of data sources and its availability at the regional level in other European countries, joint request addressed by ELRNM members to Eurostat to list the missing indicators at the regional level (NUTS 2) for all Member States for which data is available; aiming to reduce the number of indicators to the key (highly relevant) ones which determine young people situation within the labour market and, based on that, compiling a synthetic measure for comparative interregional analyses.
Marta Sosnowska, Voivodeship Labour Office in Bialystok, Poland DISCUSSION