Monthly Review of ABLV Mutual Funds (June, 2016) Management company comment In June, the focus of the market players attention was the sessions of main central banks of the world and the UK referendum on the EU membership. However, it is fair to say that the results of central banks sessions were of much smaller concern for the investors, since no particular surprises were expected. The only thing that aroused some interest was the statement made by the FRS Chair Janet Yellen, namely, that forces holding down interest rates may be long-lasting, referring, inter alia, to the results of voting for Brexit. Whereas major market movements this month were affected by announcement of different poll results before the UK referendum. During first half of the month, the markets were declining because of the growing number of Brexit supporters. However, in the middle of the month, the moods changed dramatically (some attribute this to the murder of Jo Cox member of the British parliament and supporter of staying in the EU). The advocates of keeping the status quo began leading in the polls, and bookmakers estimated the probability of Brexit to be just 20-25%, which enabled the markets to compensate the losses sustained in the first half of the month. However, as it often happens the outcome was contrary to the bookmakers predictions. Before EURO 2016, the teams of Spain and England were among the four favourites to win the championship. In fact, both teams lost in round of 16, and the UK voted for leaving the EU. The results of the referendum were rather shocking for the financial markets. On the following day, the pound sterling fell by 8% against the US dollar (reaching 30-year minimum) and by 6% against the euro. The yield of the US 10-year government bonds dropped to the minimum since 2009, amounting to 1.42%, and the yield of German 10-year bonds set a new record low at minus 0.15%. The fall of European stock market indexes exceeded 10% over two days, the prices of most commodities plummeted, while the price of gold surged. Such developments demonstrated how unexpected were the referendum results. However, somewhat surprisingly, the panic ceased very quickly, and by the end of the month, most capital markets compensated substantial part of the losses, while British index FTSE 100 even demonstrated growth by 4.4% over the month of June. Major driver for such market behaviour was the understanding that Brexit, although being serious, is not immediate, and the whole process will take a long time; therefore, many short-term players considered the situation of panic and high volatility to be the right moment for closing speculative positions opened before the referendum. Against the backdrop of panic in Europe and the USA, the emerging stock markets surprisingly looked much more secure. Over the month, aggregate stock index of emerging markets (MSCI EM) has increased by 3.3%, while the index decline following the results of British referendum amounted to just 4.90%, which is relatively little, compared to the drop by 10% in Europe. Usually, price fluctuations on emerging markets are higher than those on developed ones, since decline in capital market indexes is accompanied by decreasing local currency rates. However, this was not true this time. Recently, emerging markets actually adapted the role of some safe haven, demonstrating striking resistance to shocks at stock markets of developed countries. The reason for this might be the fact that these markets have been under downward pressure over quite a long time and additionally emerging currencies already reached multi-year lows. Therefore, emerging markets currently become more attractive, given the political and consequently economic uncertainty in Europe, as well as rather expensive, from the fundamental point of view, stock market of the USA. In June, corporate and emerging markets bonds were also impacted by growing volatility on global financial markets because of Brexit risks. The major outcome of all events in Europe was the substantial change in the expectations regarding projected key interest rate increase in the US. Just a little ago, when talking about rate increase months of this year (June, September, December) were discussed, while after the unexpected referendum results even the year 2017 is not mentioned, the earliest forecast is the first half of 2018. The arising uncertainty caused global drop in yields of the government bonds, and the news about negative yields seem no to surprise anyone anymore. Corporate and emerging markets bonds were also unable to evade this trend. Especially strong price increase was seen in longer end high-grade bonds. For some time, the segment of high-yield bonds was under the pressure because of high volatility equity markets and commodities, but eventually buyers returned to this segment as well, especially following the statement made by the Chair of the Bank of England about the readiness to ease the monetary policy due to the given uncertainty. The markets quickly absorbed the shock coming from Brexit and focused the renewed environment of long period of easy monetary policy of the leading central banks in order to reduce the risks of the UK leaving the EU. Consequently, real duration chase broke out in the market, causing overall considerable price increase. According to the results of the month, all bond funds managed by ABLV Asset Management demonstrated positive return from 1% to 2%, except ABLV European Corporate EUR Bond Fund, which did not manage to compensate the losses caused by the panic after the UK referendum (-0.2% in June) till the end of the month, since the drop during two days following the announcement of results was too heavy.
Monthly Review of ABLV Mutual Funds (June, 2016) In the short term, we continue keeping to the defence strategy. Relatively high portion of cash is retained in all stock funds, since in the given situation, when no one is able to properly assess the occurring risks, high volatility might be preserved at capital markets. The decision on restoring the positions will be made after some certainty in market trends appears. In bond funds, taking into account the market moods, the total duration of portfolios has been increased, since the developments on global bond market provide strong support to the markets of corporate bonds and the bonds of emerging countries. The overall outlook for these markets remains positive. Despite declining yields and narrowing spreads, the bond prices and return to maturity remain rather attractive for long-term and mid-term investments. Additional information is available at ABLV Bank home page in the section ABLV Mutual Funds. Jevgenijs Gžibovskis ABLV Asset Management, IPAS Deputy Chairman of the Board This comment is intended exclusively for informative purposes and cannot be considered as an investment recommendation or advice.
Government Bond Funds ABLV Emerging Markets USD Bond Fund ABLV Emerging Markets EUR Bond Fund Fund Details Fund type Government Bond Fund Government Bond Fund Risk profile 1 moderate (4) moderate (3) ISIN LV0000400315 LV0000400349 Bloomberg ticker ABLVEMU LR ABLVEME LR Inception date April 2007 August 2007 Auditor KPMG Baltics KPMG Baltics Fund manager Jevgenijs Gžibovskis Jevgenijs Gžibovskis Management fee 0.75% (p.a.) 0.75% (p.a.) Fund Characteristics Fund assets 29 473 070 USD 16 815 644 EUR Fund share value 15.99 USD 14.49 EUR Number of fund participants 92 51 Performance for period 2 : Since the beginning of 2016 (YTD) 7.82% 6.16% Year 2015 2.05% 2.31% Year 2014 2.75% 1.83% Year 2013-3.94% 0.92% Year 2012 15.63% 15.88% Annualized return since inception 5.23% 4.26% Features of financial instruments in the fund's portfolio: Yield (coupon) 5.48% 3.81% Term to maturity (in years) 7.0 5.7 Weighted average rating 3 BB+ BB+ Annualized yield to maturity 4.57% 3.36% 1 The risk profile is expressed by synthetic indicator on a scale from 1 (lower return and usually lower risk) to 7 (higher return and usually higher risk), based on the fund s return volatility indicators 2 The historic performance is no guarantee for the fund s future performance. This material is informative and it cannot be regarded as a proposal or recommendation to purchase or sell investment certificates mentioned herein 3 Weighted average rating of fund securities, to which rating is assigned General information on ABLV mutual funds and management company ABLV Asset Management, IPAS, as well as all additional information can be found on our home page: http://www.ablv.com/en/services/investments/mutual-funds Public information about the Funds is available on the Exchange Nasdaq Riga: http://www.nasdaqomxbaltic.com
Government Bond Funds Fund Performance ABLV Emerging Markets USD Bond Fund (ISIN: LV0000400315) ABLV Emerging Markets EUR Bond Fund (ISIN: LV0000400349) 16.50 15.99 USD 16.50 15.50 15.50 14.50 14.50 14.49 EUR 13.50 13.50 Public information about the Funds is available on the Exchange Nasdaq Riga: http://www.nasdaqomxbaltic.com
Corporate Bond Funds ABLV High Yield CIS USD Bond Fund ABLV High Yield CIS RUB Bond Fund ABLV Global Corporate USD Bond Fund ABLV European Corporate EUR Bond Fund ABLV Emerging Markets Corporate USD Bond Fund Fund Details Fund type Corporate Bond Fund Corporate Bond Fund Corporate Bond Fund Corporate Bond Fund Corporate Bond Fund Risk profile 1 moderate (4) moderate (4) moderate (3) moderate (3) moderate (4) ISIN LV0000400331 LV0000400778 LV0000400802 LV0000400810 LV0000400935 Bloomberg ticker ABLVHYU LR ABLVHYR LR ABLVGCU LR ABLVECE LR ABLVEMC LR Inception date June 2007 January 2012 June 2013 June 2013 September 2015 Auditor KPMG Baltics KPMG Baltics KPMG Baltics KPMG Baltics KPMG Baltics Fund manager Sergejs Gačenko Sergejs Gačenko Sergejs Gačenko Sergejs Gačenko Sergejs Gačenkoo Management fee 1.25% (p.a.) 1.25% (p.a.) 1.00% (p.a.) 1.00% (p.a.) 1.25% (p.a.) Fund Characteristics Fund assets 25 609 419 USD 99 897 933 RUB 19 437 008 USD 8 249 947 EUR 8 305 239 USD Fund share value 16.27 USD 374.06 RUB 10.79 USD 11.34 EUR 10.71 USD Number of fund participants 79 8 75 34 15 Performance for period 2 : Since the beginning of 2016 (YTD) 7.86% 6.96% 7.12% 4.28% 7.02% Year 2015 3 25.30% 13.78% -1.58% 1.47% 0.09% Year 2014-16.58% -10.21% 0.34% 3.30% - Year 2013 2.20% 7.00% - - - Year 2012 17.96% - - - - Annualized return since inception 5.55% 5.07% 2.50% 4.16% 9.23% Features of financial instruments in the fund's portfolio: Yield (coupon) 6.10% 10.58% 5.54% 4.11% 6.21% Term to maturity (in years) 3.5 2.1 4.4 4.2 4.1 Weighted average rating 4 BB BB+ BB BB BB Annualized yield to maturity 4.52% 12.78% 4,87% 3.96% 5.26% 1 The risk profile is expressed by synthetic indicator on a scale from 1 (lower return and usually lower risk) to 7 (higher return and usually higher risk), based on the fund s return volatility indicators 2 The historic performance is no guarantee for the fund s future performance. This material is informative and it cannot be regarded as a proposal or recommendation to purchase or sell investment certificates mentioned herein 3 Except ABLV Emerging Markets Corporate USD Bond Fund, for which return is calculated since funds inception date 4 Weighted average rating of fund securities, to which rating is assigned General information on ABLV mutual funds and management company ABLV Asset Management, IPAS, as well as all additional information can be found on our home page: http://www.ablv.com/en/services/investments/mutual-funds Public information about the Funds is available on the Exchange Nasdaq Riga: http://www.nasdaqomxbaltic.com
Corporate Bond Funds Fund Performance ABLV High Yield CIS USD Bond Fund (ISIN: LV0000400331) ABLV Global Corporate USD Bond Fund (ISIN: LV0000400802) 16.50 16.27 USD 11.40 15.50 14.50 13.50 11.20 11.00 10.80 10.60 10.40 10.20 9.80 9.60 10.79 USD ABLV High Yield CIS RUB Bond Fund (ISIN: LV0000400778) ABLV European Corporate EUR Bond Fund (ISIN: LV0000400810) 390.00 380.00 374.06 RUB 11.60 11.40 11.34 EUR 370.00 360.00 350.00 340.00 330.00 320.00 3 11.20 11.00 10.80 10.60 10.40 10.20 300.00 290.00 9.80 Public information about the funds is available on the Exchange Nasdaq Riga: http://www.nasdaqomxbaltic.com
Total Return Fund ABLV Multi-Asset Total Return USD Fund Fund Details Fund Performance Fund type Total Return Fund Risk profile 1 moderate (4) ISIN LV0000400919 Bloomberg ticker ABLVMAU LR Inception date February 2015 Auditor KPMG Baltics Fund manager Andrejs Piļka Management fee 1.50% (p.a.) Fund Characteristics Fund assets 7 541 811 USD Fund share value 9.42 USD Number of fund participants 28 Performance for period 2 : Since the beginning of 2016 (YTD) 1.42% Year 2015 3-7.07% Annualized return since inception -4.23% 10.20 9.80 9.60 9.40 9.20 9.00 8.80 8.60 9.42 USD 1 The risk profile is expressed by synthetic indicator on a scale from 1 (lower return and usually lower risk) to 7 (higher return and usually higher risk), based on the fund s return volatility indicators 2 The historic performance is no guarantee for the fund s future performance. This material is informative and it cannot be regarded as a proposal or recommendation to purchase or sell investment certificates mentioned herein 3 Return is calculated since funds inception date General information on ABLV mutual funds and management company ABLV Asset Management, IPAS, as well as all additional information can be found on our home page: http://www.ablv.com/en/services/investments/mutual-funds Public information about the funds is available on the Exchange Nasdaq Riga: http://www.nasdaqomxbaltic.com
Equity Funds Fund Details ABLV Global USD Stock Index Fund ABLV Global EUR Stock Index Fund ABLV US Industry USD Equity Fund ABLV European Industry EUR Equity Fund Fund type Equity Fund Equity Fund Equity Fund Equity Fund Risk profile 1 moderately aggressive (5) moderately aggressive (5) moderately aggressive (5) moderately aggressive (6) ISIN LV0000400323 LV0000400356 LV0000400836 LV0000400844 Bloomberg ticker ABLVGSU LR ABLVGSE LR ABLVUIU LR ABLVEIE LR Inception date April 2007 August 2007 November 2013 November 2013 Auditor KPMG Baltics KPMG Baltics KPMG Baltics KPMG Baltics Fund manager Andrejs Piļka Andrejs Piļka Oļegs Rusnaks Oļegs Rusnaks Management fee 1.50% (p.a.) 1.50% (p.a.) 1.50% (p.a.) 1.50% (p.a.) Fund Characteristics Fund assets 8 679 568 USD 3 175 336 EUR 3 636 449 USD 2 641 007 EUR Fund share value 10.08 USD 8.70 EUR 10.53 USD 10.07 EUR Number of fund participants 62 40 36 23 Performance for period 2 : Since the beginning of 2016 (YTD) -8,48% -12,72% -4,41% -11,07% Year 2015-6,78% 0,86% -1,03% 5,21% Year 2014-0,26% 3,84% 6,95% 2,09% Year 2013 10,24% 3,26% - - Year 2012 9,33% 11,67% - - Annualized return since inception -0,11% -1,95% 1,71% -1,48% 1 The risk profile is expressed by synthetic indicator on a scale from 1 (lower return and usually lower risk) to 7 (higher return and usually higher risk), based on the fund s return volatility indicators 2 The historic performance is no guarantee for the fund s future performance. This material is informative and it cannot be regarded as a proposal or recommendation to purchase or sell investment certificates mentioned herein General information on ABLV mutual funds and management company ABLV Asset Management, IPAS, as well as all additional information can be found on our home page: http://www.ablv.com/en/services/investments/mutual-funds Public information about the funds is available on the Exchange Nasdaq Riga: http://www.nasdaqomxbaltic.com
Equity Funds Fund Performance ABLV Global USD Stock Index Fund (ISIN: LV0000400323) ABLV US Industry USD Equity Fund (ISIN: LV0000400836) 12.00 9.50 9.90 USD 11.00 10.46 USD 8.50 9.50 7.50 9.00 ABLV Global EUR Stock Index Fund (ISIN: LV0000400356) ABLV European Industry EUR Equity Fund (ISIN: LV0000400844) 12.00 11.00 9.50 8.50 8.40 EUR 9.50 9.61 EUR 7.50 9.00 Public information about the funds is available on the Exchange Nasdaq Riga: http://www.nasdaqomxbaltic.com