ril 2011 21 Ap Southeast Alaska Integrated Resource Plan (SE) Kevin Harper Black & Veatch Paul Berkshire HDR Alaska, Inc.
Agenda Sou theast Ala ska Integrated Resource Planning Project Objectives and Scope Project Team Overview Project Approach and Schedule Hydropower in SE Alaska Questions and Answers 2
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Integrated Resource Planning theast Alaska Sout Plan that economically schedules what, when, and where to build, based on available energy supplies Long term time horizon Competes generation, transmission, fuel supply and DSM/energy efficiency options Includes renewable energy projects (including Hydro) Arrives at a plan to build future infrastructure for minimum long run cost to ratepayers Considers risks Consideration of financing options 4
Integrated Resource Planning Objective Function: 2012 Cumulative Present Value Costs Sout theast Alaska With consideration of: Regional issues and differences Energy security Risks 5
Integrated Resource Planning Limitations Does not set State energy policy Directional Identified/generic/actual projects Agnostictoto owner/developerof of projects theast Alaska Sout 6
Integrated Resource Planning Example Results 21 April 2011 7,000 Energy By Resource Type 6,000 Ocean Tidal ERGY(GWh) EN 5,000 4,000 3,000 Wind Municipal i lsolid Waste Geothermal Hydro Purchase Power Fuel Oil Sout theast Alaska 2,000 1,000 0 20 011 20 014 20 017 20 020 20 023 20 026 20 029 20 032 20 035 20 038 20 041 20 044 20 047 20 050 20 053 20 056 20 059 Nuclear Coal Natural Gas 7
Integrated Resource Planning Example Results Energy Requirements (MWh) 8,000,000 Without DSM/EE With DSM/EE 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 21 April 2011 Southeast Alaska Energy Requirements (MWh) 0 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 2053 2056 2059 Year 8
Integrated Resource Planning Example Issues to be Addressed theast Alaska Sout DSM/Energy Efficiency Potential resource need to gather baseline information Funding alternatives State, system benefit charge, participants, etc. Delivery mechanisms AHFC, AEA, regional entity, individual utilities 9
Integrated Resource Planning Example Issues to be Addressed 21 April 2011 Comparison of Capital Rates for Base Case Scenario and Alternative* Scenario theast Alaska Sout 10
Integrated Resource Planning Example Issues to be Addressed theast Alaska Sout Strategies to Lower Capital Cost of SE to Ratepayers Ratepayer benefits charge State financial assistance Repayment flexibility Credit support/risk /ikmitigation ii i Potential interest cost benefit 11
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Project Objectives and Scope Sout theast Alaska Current Situation Limited it interconnections and redundancy Limited economies of scale Dependence on fossil fuels Rapid electric heating conversions Aging infrastructure Difficult financing SE Study Plan that economically schedules what, when, and where to build, based on available energy supplies 50-year time horizon Competes generation, transmission, fuel supply ppy and DSM/energy efficiency options Includes future CO 2 costs Includes renewable energy projects (including Hydro) Arrives at a plan to build future infrastructure for minimum long-run cost to ratepayers Proposed AK-BC transmission line will be considered Considers risks Consideration of financing options Potential SE Results Increased DSM/energy efficiency Increased renewables (including hydro) Increased transmission AK-BC transmission line Potential Future Situation More robust transmission Diversified supplies Spread risks State financial assistance Regional planning Wise resource use Respond to electric heating conversions New technologies Prioritized List of Capital Projects Energy challenges are significant; SE will provide information required to make regional decisions. 13
Project Objectives and Scope theast Alaska Sout 50 year horizon Assessment of regional loads Projections of fuel and electricity generation costs Analysis of potential generation resources Diversify energy supplies Comprehensive list of current and future generation, transmission and electric power infrastructure projects Long term plan for capital project additions with emphasis on first three years 14
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Project Team Overview Sout theast Alaska Alaska Energy Authority Sponsoring Agency Black & Veatch Primary Contractor HDR, Inc. Subcontractor Southeast Conference Advisory Working Group Regional Utilities Regional Communities Extensive public participation is key element of project. 16
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Project Approach theast Alaska Sout Task 1 Understand the SE Energy Model: Past, Present and Future Task 2 Assess Existing and Future Energy Technologies Task 3 Develop Energy Conservation Program Task k4 Financing i the SE Energy Future Task 5 Technical Conference and Preliminary Action Plan Task 6 Develop Region wide Transmission Plan 18
Project Approach (continued) theast Alaska Sout Task 7 Develop Preferred Resource Lists for Existing Interconnected t delectrical l Gid Grids Excluding SEAPA Task 8 Develop for SEAPA Task 9 Planningfor Insular Communities Task 10 Provide Preliminary Capital Budgets for Region wide Task 11 Assemble Task Groups 1, 2, and 3 Components Into a Regional Plan Task 12 Present the Plan Task 13 Complete the Plan 19
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Hydropower insealaska theast Alaska Sout Existing Projects 26 projects 13run of river river, <=5 MW 13 storage, 1 80 MW 211 MW installed capacity 950,000 MWh average annual generation 21
Hydropower insealaska theast Alaska Sout Proposed p Projects 20 projects 5 run of river, <= 1 MW 15 storage, 5 80 MW 318 MW installed capacity 1,200,000 MWh average annual generation 22
Hydropower insealaska Sout theast Alaska Proposed Projects General Characteristics Most.. in early stages of development require significant ifi transmission i lines proposed as IPPs lack established market for energy (existing diesel generation, export) Notable Exceptions: Blue Lake Expansion Lake Whitman Reynolds Creek Mahoney Lake Notable Exceptions: Small run of river projects in Angoon, Hoonah, Tenakee Springs 23
For more information: Jim Strandberg, Alaska Energy Authority (907) 771 3069 JStrandberg@aidea.org Kevin Harper, Black & Veatch (425) 427 1652 HarperKM@bv.com Myron Rollins, Black & Veatch (913) 458 7432 RollinsMR@bv.com Paul Berkshire, HDR Alaska, Inc. (907) 360 1015 paul.berkshire@hdrinc.com