VIỆN NGHIÊN CỨU BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU ĐẠI HỌC CẦN THƠ DRAGON Institute Mekong - CTU INTERNATIONAL DIALOGUE ON MIGRATION 2011 THE FUTURE OF MIGRATION: BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR CHANGE INTERSESSIONAL WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION AND MIGRATION Geneva, 29-30 March 2011 CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION AND MIGRATION IN THE MEKONG RIVER DELTA, VIETNAM Capacities for comprehensive responses: From emergency assistance to sustainable development LE ANH TUAN Research Institute for Climate Change CanTho University E-mail: latuan@ctu.edu.vn
1. INTRODUCTION TO THE MEKONG DELTA The Mekong River Delta (MD), the most downstream part of the Mekong river, has 4 million ha in size (36,000 km 2 ) and hosts about 18,6 million inhabitants (2010), counted 22% of Vietnamese population. The delta supplies more than 50% of the nation s rice and crop food, 65% of the total fish production, and 70% of tree fruits for domestic and export..
A Border A 3.00 VN-CPC A - A 2.00 1.00 Đồng Tháp Tiền Giang Tien River Cửu Long Hau River Cần Thơ 7o Bac Liêu East Sea 0.00-1.00-2.00 Not to scale - 15-20 m - 12-15 m
2. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEKONG DELTA The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identifed the Mekong Delta in Vietnam as one of three hardest-hit delta regions by climate change worldwide (IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007).
The Mekong Delta is the most vulnerable area where all the the entire population living within of under a 10 m low elevation coastal zone (LECZ). Sea level rise (m) Land lost (%) Pop. displaced (%) # 1.0 # 25 # 20 (3.5 mil.) # 2.0 # 50 # 75 (14 mil. )
2. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEKONG DELTA Average max. temperature Average min. temperature
2. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEKONG DELTA Number of hot days Annual precipitation
2. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEKONG DELTA Change in annual precipitation Flood boundary
2. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEKONG DELTA Climate trends Dry duration prolonged Wet duration shorted Annual mean temperature Heat waves Precipitation in critical season Abnormal rainfall in wet season Upstream floods Sedimentation River bank erosion Drought Abnormal strong wind (Whirlwind) Trends
3. ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION 70 km CẦN THƠ 2005 2010 Low upstream flow leads the salinity intrusion to coastal areas more serious
3. ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION The change of river flows and sea level rise lead the riverbanks and coastal lines in serious erosion.
3. ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION Higher temperature and lower rainfall are main reasons leading forest fire in the Mekong Delta. Tropical forest area reduction made the environmental degradation more serious.
3. ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION The rapid population growth and near-river-living habits cause water environmental damage.
Effects of Dams in Upstream to Lower MD Dam construction will displace thousands and alter flood cycles and sediment levels downstream where millions people fish and farm 14
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE TRANSBOUNDARY WATER ISSUES UPSTREAM DAMS MEKONG DELTA WATER RESOURCES EFFECTS INDUSTRIAL GROWTH DEFORESTATION WATER QUANTITY WATER QUALITY WATER DYNAMICS WATER TRANSFER AGRICULTURAL LAND AND PRODUCT REDUCTION NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY THREATS DIRECT/ INDIRECT POVERTY AND UNSTABLE INCREASES ENVIRONMENTAL & NATURAL RESOURCES DEGRADATION
4. MIGRATION Vietnam s Migratory Patterns: Highlands to Lowlands Northern to Southern regions Rural to Urban areas (Source: Oxfam Hong Kong, 2009)
4. MIGRATION Other countries Remote rural regions Low lying coastal areas Peri- Urban Bigger cities Semi-arid lands Vietnam annual population increasing: Normal growth: 0.8 1.0 % (whole country) Mechanical growth: 2.4% (cities) and 3-4 % (big cities) (Uncontrolled migration)
Climate change Environmental degradation - Migration
5. COMPREHENSIVE RESPONSE Level Disaster preparedness Environmental improvement National budget distribution Rural development Labor market intervention Migration spatial planning to climate change adaptation Migration survey Capacity building Policy consideration Time
5. COMPREHENSIVE RESPONSE 5A approach ANALYSIS (Phân tích) ADAPTATION (Thích nghi) 5A AWARENESS (Nhận thức) ACTION (Hành động) ADVOCACY (Vận động) (Tuan, 2009)
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