Georgia s Higher Education. Matt Hauer, Applied Demographer

Georgia s Higher Education Matt Hauer, Applied Demographer

Millions Population of Georgia, 1900 2010 Source: US Census Bureau

Georgia s Race Distribution, 1980 White Black Hispanic Other 26% 1% 1% 72%

Georgia s Race Distribution, 2010 White Black Hispanic Other 1% 1% 5% 9% 26% 30% 72% 1980 2010 56%

Georgia s Race Distribution, 1980 2030 1% 1% White Black Hispanic Other 5% 9% 26% 16% 8% 72% 30% 1980 2010 56% 32% 2030 44% Source: US Census Bureau, and internal population projections

Georgia Educational Attainment, Population Aged 25 and Older, 2007 2009 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% White Black Hispanic 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Less than high school diploma High school graduate or Higher Some college or Higher Bachelor's degree or Higher Source: American Community Survey, 2005-2009

US Unemployment by Educational Attainment Source: Economicdata.com

Georgia Median Income by Educational Attainment, 2005-2009 Graduate or professional degree Bachelor's degree Population average Some college or associate's degree High school diploma, GED, or alternative Less than high school diploma $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 Source: US Census Bureau

Connecticut New Jersey Maryland New York Massachusetts Virginia California New Hampshire Illinois Texas Minnesota Delaware United States Rhode Island Georgia Washington Alaska Pennsylvania Colorado Nevada Kansas Wisconsin Ohio Arizona North Carolina Alabama Tennessee Indiana Louisiana Iowa Missouri Florida Hawaii Michigan Oklahoma Arkansas Nebraska Vermont Kentucky South Carolina North Dakota Oregon Wyoming Utah Mississippi New Mexico West Virginia Maine South Dakota Idaho Montana Median Annual Wage Earnings by Level of Education Attained 25 to 64 Year Olds (2010) 80,000 High School Graduate or GED Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

Percent Aged 18 24 Not Enrolled and Not Having a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2006 2008 Source: US Census Bureau

Percentage of Workforce by Education Level 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 7 11 10 9 12 40 32 21 23 10 12 17 30 28 11 10 1973 2007 2018 Source: Georgetown University Center on Education & Workforce, Projection of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018, (2010) 17 Grad & Above Bachelor Associate Some College HS Degree Dropout

Percentage of Occupational Categories by Education Level by 2018 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Grad & Above Bachelor Associate Some College HS Degree Dropout Source: Georgetown University Center on Education & Workforce, Projection of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018, (2010)

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with at Least an Associates Degree, 2006-10 D ade C atoosa F annin Towns U nion R abun W hitfield W alker M urray Gilmer W hite H abersham C hattooga Gordon Lum pkin Pickens D awson H all Stephens Banks F ranklin H art F loyd Jackson M adison Elbert Bartow C herokee F orsyth Polk C obb Barrow Gw innett C larke Paulding Oglethorpe H aralson Oconee Lincoln D ouglas D ekalb W alton W ilkes R ockdale F ulton M organ C olumbia C arroll C layton N ewton Greene Taliaferro H enry M cd uffie F ayette W arren C oweta Butts Jasper Putnam R ichmond H eard Spalding H ancock Glascock Troup Pike Lamar M eriw ether M onroe Jones Baldwin Jefferson Burke W ashington U pson H arris Bibb W ilkinson Jenkins Johnson Screven Talbot C rawford Tw iggs M uscogee Taylor Peach Em anuel M arion H ouston Bleckley Laurens Treutlen Bulloch C hattahoochee M acon C andler Effingham Schley Pulaski M ontgomery Stewart D ooly D odge Evans W heeler Bryan Sumter W ebster W ilcox Toombs Telfair Tattnall C hatham C risp Quitman Terrell Lee R andolph Turner Ben Hill Jeff Davis Appling Long Liberty C lay W orth Irwin C offee C alhoun D ougherty Bacon W ayne Tift M cintosh Early Baker Pierce Atkinson Berrien M itchell C olquitt C ook W are Brantley Glynn M iller 27.2% to 55.1% 20.6% to 27.2% 17.0% to 20.6% 10.8% to 17.0% Sem inole D ecatur Lanier Grady Brooks Low ndes C linch Thomas Echols C harlton C amden Georgia = 36.1%, United States = 38.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-10 ACS 5-Year Estimates.

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with Some College but No Degree, 2006-10 D ade C atoosa F annin Towns U nion R abun W hitfield W alker M urray Gilmer W hite H abersham C hattooga Gordon Lum pkin Pickens D awson H all Stephens Banks F ranklin H art F loyd Jackson M adison Elbert Bartow C herokee F orsyth Polk C obb Barrow Gw innett C larke Paulding Oglethorpe H aralson Oconee Lincoln D ouglas D ekalb W alton W ilkes R ockdale F ulton M organ C olumbia C arroll C layton N ewton Greene Taliaferro H enry M cd uffie F ayette W arren C oweta Butts Jasper Putnam R ichmond H eard Spalding H ancock Glascock Troup Pike Lamar M eriw ether M onroe Jones Baldwin Jefferson Burke W ashington U pson H arris Bibb W ilkinson Jenkins Johnson Screven Talbot C rawford Tw iggs M uscogee Taylor Peach Em anuel M arion H ouston Bleckley Laurens Treutlen Bulloch C hattahoochee M acon C andler Effingham Schley Pulaski M ontgomery Stewart D ooly D odge Evans W heeler Bryan Sumter W ebster W ilcox Toombs Telfair Tattnall C hatham C risp Quitman Terrell Lee R andolph Turner Ben Hill Jeff Davis Appling Long Liberty C lay W orth Irwin C offee C alhoun D ougherty Bacon W ayne Tift M cintosh Early Baker Pierce Atkinson Berrien M itchell C olquitt C ook W are Brantley Glynn M iller 22.4% to 28.9% 19.4% to 22.4% 17.3% to 19.4% 8.6% to 17.3% Sem inole D ecatur Lanier Grady Brooks Low ndes C linch Thomas Echols C harlton C amden Georgia = 20.8%, United States = 21.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-10 ACS 5-Year Estimates.

Percent of Population Age 18-64 with Some College (No Degree) or Less Living in Families Earning Less than a Living Wage, 2006-10 (Georgia PUMAS) D ade C atoosa F annin Towns U nion R abun W hitfield W alker M urray Gilmer W hite H abersham C hattooga Gordon Lum pkin Pickens D awson H all Stephens Banks F ranklin H art F loyd Jackson M adison Elbert Bartow C herokee F orsyth Polk C obb Barrow Gw innett C larke Paulding Oglethorpe H aralson Oconee Lincoln D ouglas D ekalb W alton W ilkes R ockdale F ulton M organ C olumbia C arroll C layton N ewton Greene Taliaferro H enry M cd uffie F ayette W arren C oweta Butts Jasper Putnam R ichmond H eard Spalding H ancock Glascock Troup Pike Lamar M eriw ether M onroe Jones Baldwin Jefferson Burke W ashington U pson H arris Bibb W ilkinson Jenkins Johnson Screven Talbot C rawford Tw iggs M uscogee Taylor Peach Em anuel M arion H ouston Bleckley Laurens Treutlen Bulloch C hattahoochee M acon C andler Effingham Schley Pulaski M ontgomery Stewart D ooly D odge Evans W heeler Bryan Sumter W ebster W ilcox Toombs Telfair Tattnall C hatham C risp Quitman Terrell Lee R andolph Turner Ben Hill Jeff Davis Appling Long Liberty C lay W orth Irwin C offee C alhoun D ougherty Bacon W ayne Tift M cintosh Early Baker Pierce Atkinson Berrien M itchell C olquitt C ook W are Brantley Glynn M iller 37.9% to 45.2% 31.0% to 37.9% 24.8% to 31.0% 14.8% to 24.8% Sem inole D ecatur Lanier Grady Brooks Low ndes C linch Thomas Echols C harlton C amden Georgia = 26.9% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-10 ACS 5-Year PUMS File.

Population Age 18-64 with Some College (No Degree) or Less Living in Families Earning Less than a Living Wage, 2006-10 (Georgia PUMAS) D ade C atoosa F annin Towns U nion R abun W hitfield W alker M urray Gilmer W hite H abersham C hattooga Gordon Lum pkin Pickens D awson H all Stephens Banks F ranklin H art F loyd Jackson M adison Elbert Bartow C herokee F orsyth Polk C obb Barrow Gw innett C larke Paulding Oglethorpe H aralson Oconee Lincoln D ouglas D ekalb W alton W ilkes R ockdale F ulton M organ C olumbia C arroll C layton N ewton Greene Taliaferro H enry M cd uffie F ayette W arren C oweta Butts Jasper Putnam R ichmond H eard Spalding H ancock Glascock Troup Pike Lamar M eriw ether M onroe Jones Baldwin Jefferson Burke W ashington U pson H arris Bibb W ilkinson Jenkins Johnson Screven Talbot C rawford Tw iggs M uscogee Taylor Peach Em anuel M arion H ouston Bleckley Laurens Treutlen Bulloch C hattahoochee M acon C andler Effingham Schley Pulaski M ontgomery Stewart D ooly D odge Evans W heeler Bryan Sumter W ebster W ilcox Toombs Telfair Tattnall C hatham C risp Quitman Terrell Lee R andolph Turner Ben Hill Jeff Davis Appling Long Liberty C lay W orth Irwin C offee C alhoun D ougherty Bacon W ayne Tift M cintosh Early Baker Pierce Atkinson Berrien M itchell C olquitt C ook W are Brantley Glynn M iller 41,145 to 124,897 31,034 to 41,145 26,229 to 31,034 16,868 to 26,229 Sem inole D ecatur Lanier Grady Brooks Low ndes C linch Thomas Echols C harlton C amden Georgia = 1,573,448 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-10 ACS 5-Year PUMS File.

3,500,000 Projected Jobs in Georgia requiring Associate s Degree or Higher, 2010-2020 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 } 720,000 Jobs Projected Jobs Current Trajectory 1,000,000 500,000-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Georgetown University s Help Wanted and the Author s own calculations

Georgia Components of Change, 1940 2009 1,020,304 Source: US Census Bureau

Educational Attainment Georgia Native vs. elsewhere born population aged 18 and older, 2005 2009 Georgia Total Georgia Elsewhere Born Total 100% 49% 51% Less Than HS 18% 60% 40% HS to some College 58% 53% 47% Bachelor s degree + 24% 32% 68% Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2011

Educational Attainment Georgia Native vs. elsewhere born population aged 18 and older, 2005 2009 Total White Georgia Born Elsewhere Born Total White 100% 51% 49% Less Than HS 14% 69% 31% HS to some College 58% 55% 45% Bachelor s degree + 28% 34% 65% Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2011

Educational Attainment Georgia Native vs. Elsewhere Born population aged 18 and older, 2005 2009 Total Black Georgia Born Elsewhere Born Total Black 100% 60% 40% Less Than HS 20% 79% 21% HS to some College 63% 60% 40% Bachelor s degree + 16% 37% 63% Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2011

Georgia Educational Attainment by School Enrollment for population aged 25 and older, 2007-2011 Total Not Attending Percentage Less Than HS 2,800,000 2,770,000 98.7% Some College 1,260,000 1,131,000 89.8% Associates or Higher 2,090,000 1,924,000 92.0% Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2011

District of Columbia Massachusetts Colorado Connecticut Vermont New Hampshire Maryland Minnesota New Jersey Virginia New York Washington Hawaii North Dakota Utah Rhode Island California Illinois Kansas Oklahoma Oregon Nebraska Montana Maine South Dakota Wisconsin Alaska Delaware Indiana Iowa North Carolina Florida Arizona Wyoming Georgia Pennsylvania Michigan Idaho New Mexico South Carolina Texas Missouri Ohio Nevada Alabama Tennessee Mississippi Kentucky Louisiana Arkansas West Virginia % of Pop Aged 25+ with Some College and No Degree 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2011

Georgia Completion Rates 83% full time 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 61% full time Four-Year College Completion Two-Year Rates College Completion Rates 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Asian White Hispanic Asian Black White Hispanic Black Source: SREB 2011

Georgia Educational Attainment by School Enrollment for population aged 25 and older, 2007-2011 % with Grant or Loan Average Loan per year Approximate Total Loans Two-Year Colleges 78% $4,400 $7,900 Four-Year Colleges 86% $4,900 $13,400 Source: SREB 2011 and Authors own calculations

State Share of Funding Formula for Georgia, 1995-2011 80% $8,000 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 74% 73% $6,808 $7,000 70% 65% 70% 67% 65% 66% 67% 66% 63% $5,008 $5,872 $6,000 $5,000 60% $3,909 $4,181 $4,453 59% $4,000 55% 54% $3,000 50% State Funding Percentage 4-year Tuition $2,000 45% $1,000 40% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 $0 Source: Georgia Board of Regents

National Tuition

Top 5 Degrees in Georgia, Employment Rates, and Average Wages, 2009-2011 Degrees per 100,000 Employment Ratio* Average Wages ($) Business Management 8300 81% 51,000 General Business 5000 81% 58,000 General Education 47 68% 31,000 Psychology 41 79% 39,000 Accounting 41 81% 58,000 *National Average is 79% Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2011

Top 5 Degrees in Georgia by Average Wages, 2009-2011 Degrees per 100,000 Employment Ratio* Average Wages ($) Mining and Mineral Engineering 14 100% 112,000 Actuarial Science 40 97% 92,000 Health and Medical Prep 190 73% 84,000 Statistics 96 96% 83,000 Computer Engineering 290 86% 83,000 *National Average is 79% Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2011

Conclusions Georgia is no longer a black and white state.

Conclusions Job qualifications gap for those with an Associate s Degree or Higher. We ve solved this gap in the past by migrating educated individuals into the State. Large population already in Georgia who could fill the gap 48% growth rate between 2000 2010 From 1.6 million in 2000 to 2.4 million in 2010

Conclusions Tuition and Contracts and Grants make up an increasing share of the Funding in Higher Ed in Georgia.

Contact Info Matt Hauer (706) 542-9369 hauer@uga.edu www.vinsoninstitute.org