Institute for Canadian Citizenship s Annual Luncheon @ICCICC
The New Canada Presented by: Dr. Darrell Bricker, Chief Executive Officer, Ipsos Global Public Affairs 2013 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
So, how well do you think you know your country and fellow Canadians? Let s find out [68% of Canadians enjoy quizzes ] 3
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region is most likely to support the de-criminalization of marijuana? Atlantic Canada 4
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region hates taxes the most? Quebec 5
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region is least likely to believe it s disrespectful to put the Canadian Flag on underwear? British Columbia 6
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region is the most religious, most believes the devil is active and most believes we will all perish in the battle of Armageddon? Atlantic Canada 7
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers? Atlantic Canada 8
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region is least likely to believe Canada would be better off if immigrants went back where they came from? Alberta 9
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region is the most environmentally conscious? Atlantic Canada 10
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region believes that Anne Murray s likeness should be put on Canadian Money? Manitoba / Saskatchewan 11
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region believes they belong first and foremost to the country, not their province? Ontario 12
FINALLY What s Canada s favorite donut? Boston Cream (18%) 13
SEE The Canada you thought you knew, ISN T It s changed and there s lots more to come 14
The OLD Canada is Giving Way to the NEW Canada 15
What are the Forces of Change and why have you missed it? 16
Who We Were 17
The Old Canada English and French very white More Rural focus on natural resources Politics Of Elite Accommodation driven by white men in Toronto, Montreal And Ottawa Trusting Of Public Authorities And Institutions (Peace, Order and Good Government) Fearful Paternalistic Conservative Judgmental Reflexively Anti-American 18
The Forces of Change 19
Demography The Forces of Change 20
Historical Age Pyramid for Canada MALE FEMALE 2011 2011 1961 1961 21
Population Growth for 2001 2006 2006 2011 Canada Leads the Pack UNITED STATES UK ITALY FRANCE RUSSIA JAPAN GERMANY -2.4% -0.2% -0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 5.4% 5.9% 4.8% 4.4% 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 3.6% 2.8% 22
Atlantic Quebec Share of Population By REGION 10.4% 7.0% 32.6% 28.8% 1961 2011 East Sagging Ontario Prairies BC 17.4% 17.6% 8.9% 13.1% 34.2% 38.4% Ontario and West SURGING 23
Calgary Population Growth for MAJOR CITIES 2001 2006 2006 2011 13.4% 12.6% Age 65+ 9.8% Vancouver 6.5% 9.3% 13.5% Toronto Ottawa/ Gatineau 5.9% 9.2% 9.2% 9.1% 12.7% 12.7% Montreal 5.4% 5.2% 14.6% Halifax 3.8% 4.7% 13.1% 24
Why the Surge? 25
Why the Surge? Immigration 26
The Top 10 Countries of Birth of Recent Immigrants to Canada U.K. 1970 2010 26,497 Philippines 36,578 U.S. 24,424 India 30,252 West Indies (Caribbean) 12,456 China 30,197 Italy 8,533 U.K. 9,499 Portugal 7,902 U.S. 9,243 Greece 6,327 France 6,934 Yugoslavia 5,672 Iran 6,815 India 5,670 UAE 6,796 China 5,377 Morocco 5,946 France 4,410 S. Korea 5,539 27
Foreign Born As a Percentage of City Population 49.7% 39.6% 36.5% 34.7% 31.7% 28.9% 27.9% 20.6% 19.9% 28
The Change in Immigrant Entry Classification Emphasis is on ECONOMIC IMMIGRANTS 1986 2010 99,354 290,681 Family Class 42,475 Other Immigrants 1,835 Economic Immigrants 35,840 Refugees 19,204 Other Immigrants 8,852 Family Class 60,220 Refugees 24,696 Economic Immigrants 186,913 29
The Forces Shaping the NEW Canadian Mindset 30
The 13 Forces of Change 31
The 13 Forces of Change 1. POPULATION In 1960 Canada was 18 million souls, now almost 34 Million 2. FERTILITY RATE Now below replacement levels 3. LIFE EXPECTANCY Has increased especially for women 4. SENIORS By 2015 seniors will outnumber children 5. URBAN NATION We ve become an urban nation 6. TECHNOLOGY 78.6% use the internet vs. 32.7% world average: even ahead of Europe @ 61.3% 7. CULTURAL DIVERSITY Immigration has increased and the places immigrants come from have changed 8. IMMIGRANTS AND URBAN AREAS Immigrants represent 6% of rural populations, 25% of urban areas 9. EMPLOYMENT Female employment rate has nearly doubled 10. EDUCATION Educational attainment has increased 11. TRADE The importance of trade in our economy has quadrupled 12. GOVERNMENT Government is a bigger share of our economy - taking 25% more of our money, but redistributing more too 32
And the 13 th, Over-Arching, Force of Change 33
Forces of Change #13 THE DECLINE of PUBLIC TRUST 34
Canadian s TRUST TODAY Pharmacists Doctors Airline Pilots Canadian Soldiers Teachers Day Care Workers Police Officers Judges Accountants Chiropractors Plumbers Church Leaders Financial Advisors Charity Leaders Engineers TV and Radio Personalities Journalists Environmental activists Auto mechanics Lawyers New Home builders Chief Executive Officers Local Municipal Politicians Union Leaders National Politicians Car Salespeople 9% 8% 79% 75% 75% 72% 65% 59% 57% 51% 49% 44% 39% 38% 37% 35% 34% 30% 29% 28% 25% 22% 19% 19% 17% 17% 35
Canadian s TRUST SINCE 1998 Canadian Soldiers Chiropractors Local Municipal Politicians Daycare Workers National Politicians -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -8% -7% -6% -6% -3% -3% -3% -2% -2% -2% 4% 3% 1% 0% [N/C] Police Officers Teachers Pharmacists Doctors Auto mechanics New Home builders Lawyers Airline Pilots TV and Radio Personalities Accountants Plumbers Financial Advisors Journalists Chief Executive Officers Car Salespeople 15% 36
The Transition to a NEW Canadian Mindset 37
The New Canada More Urban, Multi-Cultural World Traders with a growing focus on services Older, More Female Tolerant, Opinionated, Demanding, and Difficult Becoming more ideologically Divided Less Engaged with Traditional Institutions Aggressively Canadian 38
The Emerging Canadian Political Landscape 39
The Consolidating Right W E S T O F Q U E B E C A N D V E R Y S U B U R B A N Ocean Geography Values Demographics Mood Pacific Toronto suburbs, rural and West Economy, government a problem, law and order, old Canadian symbols, suburban sensibilities Middle class, established immigrants, college educated, entrepreneurs Positive and pro-change Voting Block United 35% - 45% 40
The Emerging Left C I T I E S, Q U E B E C A N D E A S T Ocean Geography Values Demographics Mood Atlantic Quebec, Atlantic, urban centers Equity, inclusion, antiausterity, government drives solutions, downtown, college-town The afflicted and those who want to help, public sector, arts community, university educated Bleak, concerned Voting Block Divided 45% - 55% 41
A Worldly View Some Reasons Why They re Coming 42
Why They re Coming We Need Them 43
Projected Available Jobs 2011-2020 Logging and Forestry Supervisors Mining, Oil and Gas Supervisors Health, Education, Social & Community Services Supervisors Physicians, Dentists & Veterinarians Nurse Supervisors, Registered Nurses Shortage: 3,989 Shortage: 7,414 Shortage: 13,914 By 2020 Canada will be short 1,000,000 skilled trade jobs too Shortage: 10,097 = 1,000 Workers Figures calculated by subtracting projected available job seekers from projected available jobs over the period from 2011 to 2020 Shortage: 30,942 44
Why They re Coming Our Economy 45
2007 2008 2009 Apr/07 Apr/08 Apr/09 Apr/10 Jun/10 Aug/10 Oct/10 Dec/10 Feb/11 Apr/11 Jun/11 Aug/11 Oct/11 Dec/11 Feb/12 Apr/12 Jun/12 Aug/12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Economic Confidence the World Over 60% 55% 56% Total Good 50% 45% 40% 36% 35% 30% 25% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? * In May 2013, fielding took place in Norway (98% good) pulling the global aggregate up to 39% (36% without Norway). 46
Canada s Rank in Economic Confidence Very Good / Somewhat Good 6% 5% 4% 36% 47% 42% 37% 34% 33% 28% 28% 26% 23% 21% 20% 20% 17% 12% 57% 53% 69% 66% 65% 76% 84% 65% Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? 47
2007 2008 2009 Apr 2007 Apr 2008 Apr 2009 Mar 2010 May 2010 Jul 2010 Sept 2010 Nov 2010 Jan 2011 Mar/11 May/11 Jul/11 Sept/11 Nov/11 Jan/12 Mar/12 May/12 Jul/12 Sep/12 Nov/12 Jan/13 Mar/13 May/13 Jul/13 100% 90% 80% 70% Canada and United States Economic Confidence Very Good / Somewhat Good Canada 65% 60% 50% 47% 40% 33% 30% 20% 10% 0% United States 2010 2011 2012 2013 Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? 48
Why They re Coming They Like Us 49
How The World Views Canadians: A place I d like to visit Some of most beautiful landscapes in the world Friendly Where rights & freedoms are respected Polite Educated Hard working One of the best qualities of life anywhere in the world One of the best healthcare systems in the world Care about the environment 97% 90% 86% 86% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 84% 50
How The World Views Canadians: Different than people in the U.S.A Financially well off Someone I would welcome into my house for a meal Tolerant of people of different racial and cultural backgrounds Welcoming to immigrants Cool A leader in working for peace/human rights around the world 82% 81% 80% 79% 72% 70% 67% If I had a choice I would move to Canada Canadians are sexy 53% 53% 51
Top Countries for Relocation: Canada Near the Top United States United Kingdom Canada Australia Switzerland Germany France New Zealand Italy Spain Singapore Japan Sweden United Arab Emirates Netherlands Norway Austria Hong Kong Brazil Ireland 16% 15% 13% 12% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown. 22% 20% 20% 34% FL3. Still assuming you had a full-time job opportunity abroad, which country would you most want to relocate to? Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827 52
Some Final Thoughts 53
The Confluence Of Influences The impact of global trends movement of money and people The relative external success and positive global image of Canada Declining birth rates and aging population Changing levels and sources of immigration Relative decline of Quebec and the East Rise of suburban Toronto and the West as power centers 54
What it Means to the Policy Makers Fiscal Accountable Connected / Aware Niche / Individual Local / Government Law and Order Patriotism Social Deference Isolated Mass / Public National Social Equity Internationalism 55
Redemption: So, now you get a second chance How well do you know Canada and your fellow Canadians? 56
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers? Atlantic Canada
OH CANADA, EH? What province or region is most likely to have used a mobile device in the bathroom and most likely to scoop it out if it falls in? Prairies
OH CANADA, EH? Province or region where women like Tupperware parties the most? British Columbia
OH CANADA, EH? Province or region most likely to believe that Aliens have come down from another planet and are actually walking among us, disguised, today? Alberta
OH CANADA, EH? Canadian city where women are most satisfied with their love life, body image, their personal health and satisfaction overall? Toronto Where Darrell Lives
Thank You 62
Contacts Dr. Darrell Bricker, Chief Executive Officer, Ipsos Global Public Affairs 300-160 Bloor Street East Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4W 1B9 Direct Phone: 416.324.2001 email: darrell.bricker@ipsos.com 2013 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 63
Institute for Canadian Citizenship s Annual Luncheon @ICCICC