Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence & Frank Laczko Head of Research International Organization for Migration (IOM), Geneva. flaczko@iom.int Marseille June 15th 2010 1
Outline Overview of current research, concepts, data, climate change, the environment and migration nexus. Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence, IOM 2009. Delineation of research, data and policy challenges; current and expected migration trends. Suggestions for enhancing the evidence base 2
4 key research questions 1. How has the relationship between migration and the environment been conceptualized? 2. To what extent has it been possible to measure the scale of environmental migration? 3. What evidence is available regarding the impact of environmental migration? 4. What research has been conducted to assess policy responses?. 3
Contested area of research Literature tends to fall into two categories: (A) work done by minimalists who suggest that the environment is only a contextual factor in migration decisions (B) maximalists, who claim that the environment directly causes people to be forced to leave their homes (Fraser, et. al 2008). Overwhelming focus on potential negative impact of environmental migration/displacement; less emphasis on migration as a possible adaptation/coping strategy. 4
Conceptual framework Climate change, in itself, does not directly displace people or cause them to move but it produces environmental effects that make it difficult for people to survive where they are. Population mobility is probably best viewed as being arranged along a continuum ranging from totally voluntary migration, to totally forced migration, very few decisions are entirely forced or voluntary (Hugo, 1996) In some situations, such as natural disasters, people have little choice but to move. In other situations of gradual environmental change movement likely to be more voluntary. 5
No internationally accepted definition term for people moving due to environmental reasons to date Environmental refugees, climate refugees misnomer; no legal basis Concepts/definition: IOM working definition Lack of an agreed definition due to the difficulty of isolating environmental factors from other drivers; debates over forced versus voluntary migration; disputes over estimated numbers A Working Definition Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad. (IOM 2007) 6
Can migration be a form of adaptation? Migration can be a form of adaptation, when migration is a voluntary coping strategy that allows people time to weigh alternatives and use migration as a way to reduce household risk. Leaving environmentally degraded and agriculturally unsustainable regions can be seen as a legitimate coping strategy for affected populations. Migration could potentially help slow the process of environmental degradation Migration and its link to adaptation is recognized in some of the National Adaptation Programmes for Action (NAPAs) 7
Current and expected environmental migration trends Most reliable data related to «natural disasters» Recorded natural disasters have doubled from approx. 200 to over 400 a year over the past two decades. Latest research indicates approx. 20 million persons displaced in 2008 due to climate-related disasters (OCHA/IDMC, 2009). But no global data on migratory movements prompted by natural disasters; displacement may be short-distance and temporary. Slow-onset disasters, such as droughts and floods, appear to affect far greater numbers than do sudden events: earthquakes 134 million; droughts 1.6 billion; floods 2.8 billion; volcanoes 4.2 million; storms 718 million Source: EM DAT (Emergency Disasters Database) 8
Data challenges Lack of data is largely due to the absence of an adequate definition to cover migrants affected climate and environmental change challenge for statistics gathering Terminology challenges as well for disasters, adaptation, vulnerability, etc. Multi-casual nature of migration multi-directional linkages; perception and behaviour of migrants Lack of migration data in censuses and/or surveys for many key parts of the world Lack of data collection capacity on a national and international level, more pronounced in developing regions 9
Current and expected environmental migration trends Potential future hotspots are countries, which have high emigration rates face enormous socio-economic challenges experience significant slow-onset climate-related disasters impact on food security for instance Amongst other countries, especially Afghanistan, Bangladesh, most of Central America, several West African and South East Asian countries are affected 10
Lack of research on impacts There are many good studies on the impacts of migrants on environments, on land use, deforestation etc. But there is almost no reliable evidence on the effects of environmental factors, controlling for other influences, on out-migration, particularly from rural areas (Bilsborrow, 2009). In a review of literature over the past 50 years, of 321 publications, including 153 articles in peer reviewed journals and 29 books, only two articles found, which investigate the effects of environmental factors on out-migration based on quantitative multivariate methods (Morinière, 2009). 11
Policy research is in its infancy Little analysis of what standards, policies or programmes are appropriate for managing environmental migration. Few specific policy measures targeted at environmental migrants. Policies ad hoc temporary right to stay when disasters occur. Little coherence between environment, development and migration policies; most focus on emergency responses. Major migration countries, China, India, Mexico barely mention migration in their CC adaptation plans. 12
Recommendations for policy-oriented research Shift migration research agenda: stronger focus on internal migration, and South-South migration Key issues: future research needs to include slow-onset environmental changes explore how migration can contribute to efforts to adapt to climate change Broader and larger-scale inter-disciplinary work to improve data collection and research methodologies Better data and methods through establishing a Commission on Migration and Environment Data (CMED) 13
Recommendations for policy-oriented research CMED can develop different definitions of population movement linked to environmental and climate change investigate how the link can be added to existing databases promote systematic sharing of existing data (online clearinghouse) New large-scale specialized research, i.e. more specialized household surveys complement the EACH- FOR project by more nationally representative studies 14
Recommendations for policy-oriented research Document, monitor and analyse policy responses to environmental migration: (1) analysis of appropriate legal and policy frameworks (2) identification of adaptation strategies (also voluntary coping strategies) (3) identification of resettlement strategies through systematic evaluation of past resettlement experiences and lessons learned (4) analysis of the response mechanisms of humanitarian organizations with regard to disaster New research prgrammes should include a capacity-building component and invest in new data collection systems explore how far governments and civil society have the capacity to implement protection policies and adaptation strategies 15
Conclusions Likely impact of climate change/environmental degradation on migration highly uncertain Unhelpful to frame the climate change and migration research agenda solely in terms of the potential negative impacts Climate change and migration policies should be closely linked to development cooperation efforts; not viewed as separate fields A more informed policy debate requires much greater investment in data collection, new studies, and research capacitybuilding. 16
THANK YOU Migration & the Environment 17