The Global Media Intelligence Report September
Executive Summary 2011 was another tough year for the global economy, as the eurozone crisis deepened and hopes were dashed of a swift, sustainable recovery from the difficult period that began in 2007. In, that recovery is still some distance away. Several leading markets including the US, the UK and much of are jittery, as businesses and consumers deal with unwelcome financial realities. Meanwhile, lower spending in the developed world has brought sharp cuts in income for emerging nations that depend heavily on exports. Amidst this troubled financial landscape, the advertising industry has proved quietly resilient. Overall, global ad spending will top $538 billion this year, emarketer estimates, up 6.8% compared to 2011. In most countries, total ad spending is expected to substantially outpace gains in GDP. Greater increases in Latin and, in particular, mean that these regions will gradually account for larger slices of the global pie. Total Media Ad Spending Share Worldwide, by Region, & % of total Eastern 4.4% Latin 6.4% Western 22.4% Total=$538.75 billion Middle East & Africa 3.3% Latin 7.6% North 33.3% 30.1% Western 19.5% Eastern 4.8% 34.4% North 30.3% Middle East & Africa 3.4% Total=$676.17 billion Note: includes digital (online and mobile), directories, magazines, newspapers, outdoor, radio and TV; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding Source: emarketer, Sep 145556 www.emarketer.com How can advertisers thrive in these challenging times? As communications platforms proliferate, it s crucial for marketers to understand how consumers engage with traditional and digital media, and how usage varies among demographic segments. It s also important to know how patterns of ad spending are shifting in response to consumer behavior within regions and around the world. The Global Media Intelligence report brings together a broad selection of information enabling advertisers to follow these essential trends in key markets and assess where and how their dollars can best be spent. Globally, several macro-level developments are helping to shape the marketplace: Digital advertising is finally becoming a significant force in all parts of the world. Digital ads (especially those designed for mobile devices) will remain the fastest-growing category of ad spending between and. Advertisers can increasingly make use of digital options to refine and amplify the effect of their activity on most traditional media platforms. For example, TV and out-of-home advertising have been reinvigorated by the potential for cross-channel interaction, in real time, with online and mobile marketing. Many regional variations in usage will not be dispelled by advances in media penetration. Significant behavioral gaps will persist, thanks to stark differences in culture and consumer needs. The media habits of semi-rural residents in India and Brazil will never mirror those of the cosmopolitan crowds in San Francisco, Munich or Dubai. Thanks to high penetration of multiple platforms, multitasking the simultaneous use of a mobile phone or tablet, for instance, while watching TV is becoming commonplace in well-established, mature digital markets such as the US, Western and South Korea, but plays a smaller part in consumer behavior elsewhere. This has obvious consequences for media strategists and planners. For example, in Argentina, Chile and Peru, fewer than 8% of consumers reportedly used the mobile internet in 2011. Advertisers in such markets will likely gain little by developing mobile sites with exclusive content tied to the most-viewed TV programs. In the US, by contrast, mobile sites are a vital part of many broadcasters plans to reward viewers and keep them watching. Around the globe, females are gradually taking their rightful place in the online audience. Yet males still tend to dominate among smartphone and mobile web users. In fact, gender remains a significant differentiator in digital media usage in many societies partly because men are more likely than women to have higher social status, jobs and disposable income to spend on internet or mobile access and devices. Marketers wooing female demographic segments in emerging markets stand to reap major benefits as advanced The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. i
Executive Summary technology becomes more widely available to women. This will be a key factor in pushing up digital ad spending outside North and Western between now and. Digital Ad Spending Share Worldwide, by Region, & % of total Latin 3.4% Eastern 4.5% Asia- Pacific 26.3% Western 26.6% Middle East & Africa 0.8% North 38.4% Total=$105.02 billion Latin 4.4% Eastern 4.7% Western 23.7% Asia- Pacific 30.7% Middle East & Africa 1.6% North 34.8% Total=$173.15 billion Note: includes advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers as well as mobile phones and tablets, and includes all the various formats of advertising on those platforms; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P messaging-based advertising; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding Source: emarketer, Sep 145564 www.emarketer.com Against the background of these global trends, marketers face different choices and opportunities in each region: In North, the world s most advanced advertising market by many measures, TV is holding its own as the most compelling media experience for millions of people. At the same time, much television and video programming is now viewed on smaller screens, via catch-up services or social networks. Engagement with digital platforms and alternative forms of content is surging ahead. Also, the next few years should bring an unprecedented boom in mobile ad spending. As a result, North will be the first region to see widespread use of advertising designed across multiple devices. Mobile will be vital for brands trying to stand out in this cluttered environment. In Western, the big story in has been the crisis surrounding the euro a financial storm with consequences for every business and consumer in the region. Yet the digital economy has grown robustly. Also, Western boasts even higher mobile phone penetration than North. Mobile can continue to break new ground here, though sophisticated consumers will likely be more responsive to new on-the-go services than to mobile advertising per se. Eastern has suffered from the financial turmoil afflicting many of its neighbors to the west. The resulting slowdown has come at a bad time for the advertising sector and for digital advertising in particular, which arguably hasn t yet achieved critical mass in several countries, including Slovakia, Turkey and Ukraine. Because penetration of digital platforms (except mobile) is relatively low, digital advertising is not lifting overall ad budgets to the extent it is elsewhere. Until the economy improves, many advertisers will find it hard to justify shifting large proportions of their ad spending to online or mobile formats. Economically, Latin has shone more brightly as areas such as North and Western have seen growth stall. Argentina, Brazil and Peru, for example, are now demonstrating enviable gains in GDP and coming into their own in terms of digital user numbers and spending power. Burgeoning populations and increasing consumer confidence are reinforcing this trend. Advertisers in several markets in Latin now have the chance to hone their skills across a growing range of old and new media platforms. Social media marketing shows particular promise, thanks to the popularity of social networking. On the whole, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) remains relatively embryonic in advertising and marketing terms. Total ad spending in the region will be less than $18 billion in, emarketer estimates. This is partly because the majority of MEA countries register far lower penetration of most media platforms than other regions. Only TV and mobile phones will show consistently high levels of usage in. Yet venturing into a young, fast-growing ad industry like that of MEA can provide major payoffs. One is the chance for savvy brands to seize a first-mover advantage and make a big splash among early adopters. In addition, advertisers in many industries, such as consumer goods, retail and utilities, can capitalize on widespread mobile use by delivering helpful messages to consumers wherever they are, and making their products and services more relevant to customers daily lives. Our 2011 Global Media Intelligence Report noted the patchy nature of media penetration across. Despite rapid progress, media usage is still wildly uneven across the region and even within individual countries. Internet use, for example, remains far greater in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea than among consumers in mainland China and Indonesia. India registered lower web penetration than any other major country in the world in 2011. Yet is still posting impressive increases in GDP and consumer living standards. For marketers, this is a win-win situation; digital media is attracting ever-larger audiences while traditional media retains much of its power. But advertisers will also need to up their games as regional consumers become more discriminating. As advertisers look to 2013, decisions about how and where to place marketing budgets are increasingly complex, especially for multinational players. The Global Media Intelligence Report aims to help advertisers assess the value of specific media platforms in major markets and plan confidently for measurable return on investment. The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. ii
Executive Summary ASIA-PACIFIC OVERVIEW AP-1 Australia AP-4 China AP-12 Hong Kong AP-19 India AP-22 Indonesia AP-29 Japan AP-36 South Korea AP-41 EASTERN EUROPE OVERVIEW EE-1 Czech Republic EE-4 Estonia EE-7 Latvia EE-10 Poland EE-13 Russia EE-17 Slovakia EE-25 Turkey EE-29 Ukraine EE-33 LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW LA-1 Argentina LA-3 Brazil LA-10 Chile LA-18 Colombia LA-22 Mexico LA-26 Peru LA-33 Venezuela LA-37 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA OVERVIEW MA-1 Egypt MA-4 Kuwait MA-9 Lebanon MA-13 Saudi Arabia MA-17 South Africa MA-21 United Arab Emirates MA-23 NORTH AMERICA OVERVIEW NA-1 Canada NA-4 United States NA-11 WESTERN EUROPE OVERVIEW WE-1 EMARKETER DEFINITIONS ENDNOTES ASIA-PACIFIC ENDNOTES EASTERN EUROPE ENDNOTES LATIN AMERICA ENDNOTES MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ENDNOTES NORTH AMERICA ENDNOTES WESTERN EUROPE REPORT CONTRIBUTORS France WE-4 Germany WE-12 Greece WE-20 Italy WE-24 The Netherlands WE-32 Norway WE-36 Portugal WE-39 Spain WE-42 Switzerland WE-49 United Kingdom WE-52 Karin von Abrams Senior Analyst Emily Adler Copy Editor Cliff Annicelli Senior Copy Editor Damian Chadwick Senior Designer Joanne DiCamillo Senior Production Artist Stephanie Gehrsitz Production Artist Dana Hill Director of Production ED-1 EAP-1 EEE-1 ELA-1 EMA-1 ENA-1 EWE-1 Natalie Marin-Sharp Researcher Chris McNinch Senior Chart Data Specialist Patrick Miller Co-director of Product Development Nicole Perrin Associate Editorial Director Hilary Rengert Research Manager Alison Smith Director of Charts Haixia Wang Forecasting Director STARCOM MEDIAVEST GROUP CONTRIBUTORS Sheila Jacobi Research Manager Kate Sirkin EVP Global Research The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. iii
Total Media Ad Spending Worldwide & Globally, spending on measured media will rise from $538.75 billion in to $676.17 billion in. But tough economic realities are mirrored in some regional figures. As Western and North struggle to regain momentum, media spending will post low single-digit gains. Other parts of the world will do far better. $162.39B CAGR 9.4% $232.79B North $179.47B CAGR 3.3% Western CAGR 2.3% $120.64B $131.99B $204.58B Total Spending Worldwide (Billions) $538.75 $676.17 CAGR 5.8% Latin $34.65B $51.33B CAGR 10.3% Eastern $23.81B $32.69B CAGR 8.2% Middle East & Africa $17.79B $22.79B CAGR 6.4% Top 10 Countries Ranked by Total Media Ad Spending (Billions) 1. US $165.96 1. US $189.23 2. Japan 47.75 2. China* 74.22 3. China* 46.34 3. Japan 53.42 4. Germany 27.82 4. Germany 29.44 5. UK 24.21 5. UK 27.65 6. Brazil 18.46 6. Brazil 27.63 7. France 16.49 7. France 17.21 8. Australia 15.03 8. Australia 16.73 9. Canada 13.51 9. Russia 16.09 10. Italy 13.42 10. Canada 15.36 Top 5 Countries Share of Total 57.9% 55.3% The Global Media Intelligence Report * Excluding Hong Kong. Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. iv
Digital Ad Spending Worldwide & Digital platforms are revolutionizing the advertising landscape and driving industry expansion around the world. Growth is most rapid in the least developed markets: Latin, and the Middle East and Africa. But the top five countries, ranked by digital ad spending, will account for over 66% of all spending in. North $40.30B CAGR 10.6% $60.30B $27.63B $53.16B CAGR 17.8% Western CAGR 10.1% $27.96B $41.05B Digital Ad Spending Worldwide (Billions) $105.02 $173.15 CAGR 13.3% Eastern $4.68B $8.15B CAGR 14.9% Latin $3.62B $7.68B CAGR 20.7% Middle East & Africa $0.84B $2.81B CAGR 35.4% Top 10 Countries Ranked by Digital Ad Spending (Billions) 1. US $37.08 1. US $55.05 2. Japan 9.60 2. China* 16.48 3. UK 8.64 3. Japan 12.55 4. China* 7.36 4. UK 12.19 5. Germany 6.75 5. Germany 9.29 6. Canada 3.22 6. Canada 5.24 7. France 3.19 7. Australia 4.50 8. Australia 3.04 8. France 4.26 9. S. Korea 2.50 9. Brazil 4.13 10. Russia 2.08 10. Indonesia 4.02 Top 5 Countries Share of Total 66.1% 61.0% The Global Media Intelligence Report * Excluding Hong Kong. Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. v
Mobile Ad Spending Worldwide & currently leads the world in mobile ad spending. But the North n market is catching up, and expanding over twice as fast. Latin will post the highest growth of all through nearly 65% annually, on average. During the next four years, global spending on mobile ads will leap from $6.6 billion to $25.3 billion. North $2.494B CAGR 49.2% $12.359B Western $1.305B CAGR 50.4% $6.679B CAGR 18.8% $2.561B $5.094B Mobile Ad Spending Worldwide (Billions) $6.583 $25.324 CAGR 40.0% Latin $0.099B $0.728B CAGR 64.7% Eastern $0.121B $0.450B CAGR 38.9% Middle East & Africa $0.003B $0.014B CAGR 47.0% Top 10 Countries Ranked by Mobile Ad Spending (Billions) 1. US $2.384 1. US $11.668 2. Japan 1.740 2. UK 3.030 3. UK.558 3. Japan 2.672 4. S. Korea.451 4. Germany 1.393 5. Germany.225 5. China*.780 6. China*.196 6. S. Korea.763 7. France.140 7. Canada.691 8. Italy.113 8. France.626 9. Canada.110 9. Italy.509 10. Australia.073 10. Spain.325 Top 5 Countries Share of Total 81.4% 77.2% The Global Media Intelligence Report * Excluding Hong Kong. Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. vi
Ad Spending per Person Worldwide In, ad spending will average a remarkable $512 for each resident of North compared to $292 in Western. In all other regions, per-person ad spending will be less than $60. Globally, digital ad spending will average $46 per web user this year, while total media ad spending will reach $77 per person. Key Internet Users Digital Ad Spending/User Total Population Media Ad Spend/Person 1,060.2M $26 $42 Middle East & Africa 208.4M / 1,328.0M $4 / $13 Latin 255.2M / 599.0M $14 / $58 Total Media Spending per Person 3,905.1M SPENDING POP. Worldwide $77 7,021.8M 1. Australia $683 22.0M 2. US 525 316.3M 3. Canada 394 34.3M 4. UK 384 63.0M 5. Japan 375 127.4M 6. Germany 342 81.3M 7. France 252 65.4M 8. Italy 219 61.0M 9. S. Korea 191 48.9M 10. Spain 161 47.0M Eastern 210.9M / 425.0M Digital Ad Spending per Internet User $22 / $56 Western 267.2M / 413.8M $105 North 265.4M / 350.6M $152 $292 SPENDING Worldwide $46 2,267.3M 1. Australia $196 15.5M 2. UK 185 46.8M 3. US 155 239.0M 4. Canada 122 26.4M 5. Germany 118 57.1M 6. Japan 100 95.9M 7. France 79 40.6M 8. S. Korea 66 37.9M 9. Italy 60 31.4M 10. Spain 50 29.8M $512 The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. vii
Smartphone Users Worldwide & South Korea and Australia registered the world s highest penetration of smartphones in, and boasted some 480 million smartphone users. But North had by far the largest regional proportion of its population using smartphones: 36%. Western ranked second by this measure, with over 25% penetration. Western North 25.3% 59.8% 36.0% 57.4% 104.9M 250.4M 126.3M 208.8M Eastern Latin 19.3% 52.7% 15.0% 39.8% 81.9M 223.6M 90.0M 248.7M Middle East & Africa 12.3% 27.0% 4.7% 12.7% 480.0M 1,094.0M 62.8M 184.1M Smartphone User Penetration (% of population) Worldwide 13.5% Worldwide 30.2% 1. S. Korea 51.0% 1. S. Korea 73.1% 2. Australia 42.1% 2. Japan 72.6% 3. US 36.6% 3. Australia 68.0% 4. Canada 30.6% 4. UK 65.1% 5. UK 30.5% 5. France 58.7% 6. Japan 27.7% 6. US 58.5% 7. France 25.2% 7. Spain 58.3% 8. Italy 24.8% 8. Germany 58.0% 9. Spain 21.8% 9. Italy 56.5% 10. Germany 21.8% 10. Russia 51.7% Smartphone Users (Millions) Worldwide 945.8M Worldwide 2,210.0M 1. China* 237.7M 1. China* 510.6M 2. US 115.8M 2. US 192.4M 3. India 75.2M 3. India 177.9M 4. Japan 35.3M 4. Brazil 94.9M 5. Brazil 34.6M 5. Japan 92.0M 6. Russia 25.5M 6. Indonesia 87.4M 7. S. Korea 24.9M 7. Russia 69.9M 8. Indonesia 23.8M 8. Germany 46.8M 9. UK 19.2M 9. Mexico 43.5M 10. Germany 17.7M 10. UK 41.9M The Global Media Intelligence Report * Excluding Hong Kong. Copyright emarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. viii
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