Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets September 2, 2016 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-72-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-47-5306 jabbott@ lease visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Bull Markets 1-3 Bear Markets 4-6 September 2, 2016 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets www.
36 31 Figure 1. Bull Markets T 36 31 26 +46% months +58% 28 months +173% 41 months +47% 5 months 26 16 S& 500 BULL MARKETS 16 11 11 6 44 34 2 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2 30 T T +16% 20 months +132% 23 months 6 44 34 2 24 14 14 4 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 40 4 25 23 25 23 +6% months +% 30 months +43% 12 months 17 17 13 13 11 11 7 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 4 50 Note: /T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets. 7 age 1 / September 2, 2016 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets www.
6 63 57 51 45 33 27 Figure 2. S& 500 BULL MARKETS Bull Markets T +1% T +56% 34 months months 6 63 57 51 45 33 27 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 5 60 125 +% 14 months +80% 44 months +33% 11 months +24% 8 months 125 50 140 120 110 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 6 70 T +33% +54% T +31% +23% +28% T 14 months months 12 months 6 months months +51% 11 months 50 140 120 110 80 80 70 70 60 70 71 72 73 74 76 77 78 7 80 Note: /T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets. 60 age 2 / September 2, 2016 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets www.
450 410 370 330 2 Figure 3. +43% 8 months Bull Markets +65% 31 months +22% 60 months 450 410 370 330 2 250 0 S& 500 BULL MARKETS 250 0 170 170 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 8 1480 1360 1240 1120 880 T +166% 43 months 1480 1360 1240 1120 880 760 760 640 640 520 520 400 400 280 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2000 280 2200 2000 1800 T +102% T 84 months +124% 47 months /2 2200 2000 1800 1400 1400 1200 1200 800 800 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20 2016 Note: /T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets. 600 age 3 / September 2, 2016 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets www.
55 45 35 Bear Markets Figure 4. T -14.8% -.4% -44.3% 55 45 35 25 S& 500 BEAR MARKETS 25 5 44 34 2 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2 30 T T -83.0% -31.8% -54.5% -31.% 5 44 34 2 24 14 14 4 27 22 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 40-31.% -34.5% -13.1% -26.6% -20.6% 4 27 22 17 17 12 12 7 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 4 50 Note: /T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets. 7 age 4 / September 2, 2016 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets www.
76 71 66 61 56 51 46 41 36 31 26 Figure 5. S& 500 BEAR MARKETS Bear Markets -14.8% -20.7% 76 71 66 61 56 51 46 41 36 31 26 16 125 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 5 60-28.0% -22.2% -36.1% 16 125 50 140 120 110 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 6 70 T -36.1% -48.2% -.4% -17.1% 50 140 120 110 80 80 70 70 60 70 71 72 73 74 76 77 78 7 80 Note: /T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets. 60 age 5 / September 2, 2016 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets www.
Bear Markets 570 510 450 3 330 Figure 6. -17.1% -27.1% -33.5% -.% 570 510 450 3 330 270 0 S& 500 BEAR MARKETS 270 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 8 1720 1480 1360 1240 1120 880 T -.% -.2% -4.1% 1720 1480 1360 1240 1120 880 760 760 640 640 520 520 400 400 280 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2000 280 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800-4.1% -56.8% -16.0% /2 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1400 1400 1200 1200 800 800 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20 2016 2017 Note: /T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets. 600 age 6 / September 2, 2016 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets www.
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