1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1.202.775.3270 Fax: 1.202.775.3199 Web: www.csis.org/burke/reports The Afghan-Pakistan War: Casualties, the Air War, and Win, Hold, Build Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy May 15, 2009
Enemy Initiated Attacks in Afghanistan May 2003 to March 2009 GAO: Iraq and Afghanistan, March 2009, GAO-09-476T, p.11. 2
Insurgent Attacks Source: NATO-ISAF, April 9. 2009 3
A War Without Resources: US Spending 4
A War Without Resources: ISAF Troop Levels
Projected Growth of the ANSF: 2005-2014 (Authorized Personnel) Source: Department of Defense, Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan January 2009 Report to Congress in accordance with the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1230, Public Law 110-181), January 2009, pp.33. 6
Source: NATO-ISAF, April 9. 2009 Security Summary: Jan-April 2008 vs. Jan-April 2009
UN Accessibility Map 2008 8
UN Sec Gen s Assessment: March 2009 2008 most violent year in Afghanistan since 2001, with 31 per cent more incidents than in 2007. Second half of 2008 saw an average of 857 incidents per month, against 625 per month during the first six months. M ild winter provided an environment for high levels of violence. Specifically, there were 42 per cent more incidents in December 2008 than in December 2007, and 75 per cent more in January 2009 than in January 2008. Two trends worsened: attempts by insurgents to destabilize previously stable areas and increased use by insurgents of more sophisticated asymmetric attacks, with an increasing disregard for the lives of civilians. These attacks included assassinations, intimidation, abductions, stand-off attacks, use of improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks, increasingly targeted civil servants, religious scholars, the aid community and road construction projects. Direct targeting of international aid organizations by insurgents continued. Insurgents continued to expand their presence in previously stable areas. The north-western province of Badghis and the neighbouring province of Faryab became a battleground through the winter, with a significant increase in insurgent action. Increase in insurgent presence severely hampered humanitarian and development efforts in previously accessible areas. Freedom of movement of unarmed civil servants was reduced by the intensified fighting and the increased campaign of intimidation and assassination. As of December 2008, 231 of the country s approximately 400 districts continued to report near-total accessibility, while 10 were considered completely beyond the Government s control and access to 165 remained difficult or problematic. W h i le the number of districts that are nearly or completely inaccessible to civil servants did not change significantly since 2007, about 30 districts are in danger of losing accessibility. T h e re are currently no indications that the security situation will improve before the summer of 2009. Report by the Secretary General, The situation in Afghanistan and its implications for international peace and security, A/63/751 S/2009/135, March 10, 2009, pp. 4-5 9
The Strategy: Clear, Hold, Build In pursuit of the strategic goals, the U.S. and its Allies and partners are pursuing a comprehensive COIN strategy that brings together military, diplomatic, and economic assets of the U.S. and the international community. The key elements of the COIN strategy are sometimes described as clear, hold, and build The objective of these elements is to: Remove insurgent and anti-government elements from a given area or region, thereby creating space between the insurgents and the population; Maintain security, denying the insurgents access and freedom of movement within the given space; and, Exploit the security space to deliver humanitarian relief and implement reconstruction and development initiatives that will connect the Afghan population to its government and build and sustain the Afghanistan envisioned in the strategic goals. 10
MONTHLY CASUALTIES IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN: 2008 11
Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan: First Six Months of 2007 versus 2008 (Killed) UN Estimate, reported by AP, June 29, 2008 12
NATO/ISAF Civilian Deaths in 2008 13
250 Civilian Deaths Comparing Feb 09 to the previous three month period (Nov 08 Jan 09), Civilian Deaths civilian deaths are down 9% Since Jan 07, insurgents have caused 79% of civilian deaths 200 ISAF/OEF Responsible Insurgent Responsible 150 100 50 Feb 08 level -55% Feb 09 0 Jan 07 Year 2008 214 CIVCAS Events ISAF/OEF Responsible *ND = Negligent Discharge Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 07 ROE / Escalation of Force 41% ND* 3% CAS 5% Road Traffic Accident 16% Indirect Fire 14% Direct Fire 21% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 08 Year 2008 260 Civilian Deaths ISAF/OEF Responsible RTA 2% *ND = Negligent Discharge Direct Fire 7% Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 08 Indirect Fire 18% ROE / EOF 13% CAS 60% ND 0% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 Feb Civilian Casualty Tracking Cell Formed in CJOC Standardizes process to investigate incidents of reported civilian casualties Source: CJOC, CIVCAS Cell
Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan Source: NATO-ISAF, April 9. 2009 15
COMISAF on Civilian Casualties - III Source: : NATO/ISAF, May 12, 2009 16
COMISAF on Civilian Casualties - III Source: : NATO/ISAF, May 12, 2009 17
COMISAF on Civilian Casualties - II Source: : NATO/ISAF, May 12, 2009 18
COMISAF on Civilian Casualties - III Source: : NATO/ISAF, May 12, 2009 19
NATO/ISAF on Casualties - I Source: : NATO/ISAF, May 14, 2009 20
NATO/ISAF on Casualties - II Source: : NATO/ISAF, May 14, 2009 21
NATO/ISAF on Casualties - III Source: : NATO/ISAF, May 14, 2009 22
NATO/ISAF on Casualties - IV Source: : NATO/ISAF, May 14, 2009 23
CFACC Air Activity Data for Iraq and Afghanistan: 2004-2009 Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 24
CFACC Close Air Support Sorties in Iraq and Afghanistan: 2004-2009 Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 25
CFACC Close Air Support Sorties in Iraq: 2004-2009 Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 26
CFACC Close Air Support Sorties in Afghanistan: 2004-2009 Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 27
Enabler Sorties in Iraq and Afghanistan: 2004-2009 (Number of Sorties) Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 28
Airlift for Iraq and Afghanistan: 2004-2009 (Cargo and Passengers) Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 29
Tanker Role in Iraq and Afghanistan: 2004-2009 (Number of Sorties and Millions of Lbs. of Fuel) Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 30
Airdrops in Iraq and Afghanistan: 2004-2009 (Cargo in 1,000s of Lbs.) Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 31
Allied, Coalition, or US Munitions Dropped by Conflict/Operation (Tons of Munitions) Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009, As of April 30, 2009 32
Allied, Coalition, or US Munitions Dropped by Conflict/Operation by Month (Tons of Munitions) Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 20o9; As of April 30, 2009 33
AFCENT Munitions Drops OPERATIONS ENDURING FREEDOM & IRAQI FREEDOM Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 34
Munitions Dropped in Afghanistan versus Iraq: First Six Months of 2008 (Bombs and Missiles) New York Times, July 23, 2008, p. 1.. 35
AFCENT Munitions Dropped 2004-2008 OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM (Tons) Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 36
AFCENT Munitions Dropped 2004-2008 OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM (Tons) Source: : NATO/ISAF and AFCENT (CAOC), May 12, 2009; As of April 30, 2009 37
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Afghan Experiences with US/NATO/ISAF Air Attacks in Past Year: 2009 Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 38
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: US/NATO/ISAF Air Strikes: Acceptability & Blame Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 39
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Afghans Who Feel Attacks on Coalition Forces are Justified : 2-2009 Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 40
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Afghan Ratings of Local Security: Feb 09 Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 41
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Afghan Positive Ratings of Local Security: Feb 09 Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 42
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Afghan Experiences with Violence in Past Year: 2007 vs. 2009 Civilians hurt by (Net 38%) Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 43
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Experience with Taliban Violence by Province: 2009/2 Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 44
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Biggest Danger to Afghanistan : 2-2009 Among other violence, a quarter report car bombs or suicide attacks in their area in the past year; three in 10, kidnappings for ransom. Thirty-eight percent report civilian casualties in the past year, attributed about equally either to U.S./NATO/ISAF or to anti- government forces, and somewhat less so to Afghan government forces. Given these and their many other challenges, the number of Afghans who expect their lives to improve in the year ahead has dropped from a peak of 67 percent in 2005 to 51 percent today. And just under half, 47 percent, expect a better life for their children, hardly a ringing endorsement of the country s prospects. The resurgence of the Taliban is a key element of the public alarm: Fiftyeight percent of Afghans see the Taliban as the biggest danger to the country, measured against local warlords, drug traffickers or the U.S. or Afghan governments. And 43 percent say the Taliban have grown stronger in the past year, well more than the 24 percent who think the movement has weakened. Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 45
ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Who Afghans Mainly Blame for Violence: 2007 vs. 2009-2 Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009 46
Rising Use of Fixed Wing Airpower: 2006-2008 (Human rights Watch Estimate) Human rights Watch,, Troops in Contact, Airstrikes and Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan, September 2008, http://www.hrw. 47
Afghanistan CAS and Pounds of Munitions Dropped by Month CAS 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 lbs Munitions Dropped 400 200 0 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 CAS Feb-07 Mar-07 Month and Year Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 lbs Munitions Dropped Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Graph created from data from Human Rights Watch Website, TROOPS IN CONTACT: Airstrikes & Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan, 9 October 2008, data available at: http://www.hrw.org/features/afghanistan_tic/index.html 50000 0
Wing Airpower and Civilian Casualties: 2006-2008 (Human rights Watch Estimate) Human rights Watch,, Troops in Contact, Airstrikes and Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan, September 2008, http://www.hrw. 49
Afghanistan CAS and Casualites by Month 2000 140 1800 1600 120 1400 100 CAS 1200 1000 800 80 60 Casualties 600 40 400 200 0 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Month and Year CAS Casualties Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 20 0 Graph created from data from Human Rights Watch Website, TROOPS IN CONTACT: Airstrikes & Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan, 9 October 2008, data available at: http://www.hrw.org/features/afghanistan_tic/index.html
Air Attacks: Human Rights Watch Recommendations Human Rights Watch urges the United States to: * Take all feasible precautions to avoid civilian loss of life and property. Airstrikes on populated villages should be avoided. Area-effect weapons such as howitzers and other heavy artillery also should not be used against targets in populated villages - their blast and fragmentation radius is so large that they have indiscriminate effects. * Refrain from using airstrikes in densely populated areas. * Make greater efforts to ensure that intelligence is highly reliable, and avoid reliance on single sources of human intelligence. * Avoid carrying out airstrikes without an adequate Collateral Damage Estimate (CDE). * Use precision-guided, low-collateral-damage munitions whenever possible, especially on targets in populated areas. * End use of area-effect weapons such as 105mm howitzers against targets in densely populated areas. * Reduce reliance on Special Forces operations in civilian areas that are likely to result in "troops in contact" situations requiring close air support. * Reconsider the value of kill/capture operations against replaceable commanders when civilian loss is likely. * Provide accurate and timely information on civilian casualties in military operations in all cases. * Impartially, thoroughly, and transparently investigate all incidents of civilian casualties, take responsibility when warranted, and take appropriate disciplinary or criminal action. * Stop publicly claiming that Taliban use of "human shields" was responsible for civilian casualties when untrue or unproven. Source: Human Rights Watch, http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2009/05/14/afghanistan-us-should-act-end-bombing-tragedies, May 14, 2009 51