3G, 4G Donde está la región americana? FORO REGIONAL PARA LAS AMÉRICAS: SISTEMAS IMT TECNOLOGÍA, EVOLUCIÓN E IMPLEMENTACIÓN CIUDAD DE PANAMÁ, 18 a19 de AGOSTO, 2014
4G Americas Board of Governors www.4gamericas.org
Latin America & Caribbean Mobile Technology Market Shares LTE 0.5% 4.2 Million HSPA 32% 232 Million iden 1% 7.5 Million 725 Million Total Mobile Connections CDMA 1% 9.8 Million GSM 65% 472 Million Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, Aug 2014 Estimates
Change in Technology Market Shares in Latin America & Caribbean (2Q2013 v. 2Q2014) 75% % Market Share 600 65% 2Q 2013 2Q 2014 Subscriptions (Millions) 500 400 300 200 (Voice) 12% (Data) 33% 100 520 M 470 M 236 M 149 M 12 M 10 M 11 M 7 M 0 GSM HSPA/LTE CDMA iden Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS, June 2014 Estimates www.4gamericas.org
Changes in 3GPP Market Shares in Latin America & Caribbean (2Q2013 v. 2Q2014) Connections (Millions) 540 520 500 480 460 440 2Q GSM 2013 2014 HSPA 250 200 150 100 50 0 2Q 2013 2014 5 4 3 2 1 0 2Q LTE 2013 2014 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, 2Q 2014 Estimates
LTE in Latin America & the Caribbean México Colombia Movistar Telcel UNE Claro Movistar Tigo Bolivia Entel, Tigo 700 MHz Brazil Chile Claro Nextel Oi ON* Sky Telecom* TIM VIVO Claro Entel 1800 MHz Movistar Ecuador CNT Mobile Paraguay Personal 1900 MHz VOX Peru Movistar Claro Uruguay Antel Claro *Indicates TDD networks (remainder FDD) Antigua & Barbuda Digicel* 700 MHz Aruba SETAR 1800 MHz Bahamas BTC 700 MHz Cayman Islands Costa Rica Dominican Republic Puerto Rico Virgin Islands C&W Lime Digicel* ICE/Kolbi Claro Movistar Claro Orange Dominicana Tricom AT&T Claro Open Mobile Sprint T-Mobile AT&T Sprint 44 Networks 18 Countries (as of 22 July 2014) 700 MHz 700 MHz 2600 MHz 1800 MHz 1800 MHZ 1800 MHz 1900 MHz 700 MHz 700 MHz 850/1900 MHz 1900 MHz Band (MHz) Networks Band(MHz) Networks 700 8 1800 6 850 / 1900 1 1700/2100 14 Venezuela Digitel 1800 MHz 1900 3 2500-2690 12 (Sources: Public announcements, regulatory entities)
1,889 Total Devices in the Market LTE User Devices (Includes FDD and TDD) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Cameras (1) PC Cards (1) Femto-cells Modules (13) Notebooks (133) (31) Tablets (175) Dongles (187) Routers/ Personal Hotspots (513) Smartphones (835) Source: Global mobile Suppliers Association, July 2014 www.4gamericas.org
LTE Devices per Band LTE FDD Frequency Band Devices 1800 MHz Band 3 769 2600 MHz Band 7 740 2100 MHz Band 1 544 800 MHz Band 20 467 800/1800/2600 Tri-band 413 AWS Band 4 405 700 MHz Bands 12, 17 379 850 MHz Band 5 345 900 MHz Band 8 335 700 MHz Band 13 308 1900 MHz Band 2 220 1900 MHz Band 25 107 APT700 Band 28 33 Source: Global mobile Suppliers Association, July 2014 LTE TDD Frequency Band Devices 2300 MHz Band 40 361 2600 MHz Band 38 360 1900 MHz Band 39 203 2600 MHz Band 41 183 3500 MHz Band 42,43 24 www.4gamericas.org
Latin America & Caribbean Mobile Technology Forecast 2014-2019 Millions 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100-731 Million 62% 36% Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 14% 75% 11% Dec 19 845 Million GSM HSPA LTE CDMA Others Others = iden, TDMA & Analog Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, Aug 2014 Estimates
9X Increase in Mobile Data Usage in Latin America 2013-2019 1400 1200 Mobile Data Growth by Device Type Smartphone Mobile PC/Router/Tablet From 53 petabytes to 463 petabytes monthly, the majority from smartphones Petabytes per month 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, Nov. 2013 www.4gamericas.org
FROM 2020 MOBILE NETWORKS NEED TO BE READY TO COPE WITH THE 1000X DATA CHALLENGE Assumptions Realistic traffic increase modeling (M2M/IoT traffic not considered) 10,000 Traffic volume per subscriber +50% per year +25% per year 1,000 1000x Total subscriber base +10% per year 100 10 Mobile broadband penetration reaching 100% by 2020 1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: NSN, October 2013 www.4gamericas.org
INCREASING SUPPORT & CAPACITY UP TO 1000x www.4gamericas.org
EDGE Technology Evolution To LTE- EVOLVED EDGE DL: 1.89 Mbps UL: 947 kbps Advanced HSPA REL 9 HSPA+ DL: 84 Mbps UL: 23 Mbps 10/10 MHz REL 10 HSPA+ DL: 168 Mbps UL: 23 Mbps 20/10 MHz REL 11 HSPA+ DL: 336 Mbps UL: 69 Mbps 40/10 MHz REL 12 HSPA+ DL: 336 Mbps UL: 69 Mbps 40/10 MHz LTE REL 9 LTE DL: 300 Mbps UL: 45 Mbps 20/20 MHz REL 10 LTE DL: 1.2 Gbps UL: 568 Mbps 40/40 MHz REL 11 LTE DL: 1.2 Gbps REL 12 LTE DL: > 1.2 Gbps 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Throughputs rates are peak theoretical network rates for that technology release. Dates refer to expected initial commercial network deployment except 2011, which shows technologies that year. There are no public announcements of deployment of WiMAX Rel 1.5 nor IEEE 802.16m. X/Y MHz indicates X MHz used on the downlink and Y MHz used on the uplink. Source: Rysavy Research/4G Americas, 2013 www.4gamericas.org
LATIN AMERICA SPECTRUM STATUS Reference point - requirement for 1300 MHz by 2015 indicated by the ITU (ITU-R M.2078) Summary of Regional Situation: 3 markets are between 30%-40% of this goal, 6 are between 20%- 30%, and the remainder are between 10%-20%. Source: 4G Americas, Analysis of ITU Spectrum Recommendations in the Latin American Region (2013). Percent of ITU recommendation achieved, selected countries Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Mexico Argentina Ecuador 39% 36% 32% 23% 23% 15% 14% 304 MHz 303 MHz 190 MHz 180 MHz 503 MHZ 465 MHz 395 MHz 0% 50% 100% www.4gamericas.org
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Thank you! Bob Calaff Director, Latin America & Caribbean