Summary of the Traffic Studies and Forecasts on the Project Highway Undertaken by the Consultant

Chapter 8 Summary of the Traffic Studies and Forecasts on the Project Highway Undertaken by the Consultant 8.1 Introduction. 8.2 Traffic Surveys. 8.2.1 Classified Traffic Volume Count Survey. 8.2.2 Origin Destination Survey (O D). 8.2.3 Speed and Delay Survey. 8.2.4 Turning Movement Survey. 8.2.5 Willingness to Pay Survey. 8.3 Capacity Guidelines. 8.3.1 Recommended Design Service Volume for Multi-Lane Roads by the IRC. 8.3.2 Highway Capacity Manual. 8.3.3 The ADB Guidelines. 8.4 Assessment of Growth Rates. 8.4.1 Growth Rate based on Past Traffic Data. 8.4.2 Growth Rate based on Vehicle Registration. 8.4.3 Transport Demand Elasticity Approach. 8.4.4 Comparison of Growth Rates by various Methods. 8.4.5 Suggested Growth Rates. 8.5 Traffic Forecast. 8.6 Projected Tollable Traffic. 8.7 Traffic Signals and Interchanges.

Chapter 8 Summary of the Traffic Studies and Forecasts on the Project Highway Undertaken by the Consultant 8.1 Introduction The National Highway-3 connects Mumbai and Agra through Nashik. It carries sizable amount of inter-state traffic. The section between Vadape and Gonde is a part of the important section of NH-3. This chapter presents traffic study and its data analysis and forecasts carried out by the Consultant. The results of analysis will form input for designing the pavement, road cross section, planning and design of toll plaza and wayside amenities and for economic and financial analysis. 8.2 Traffic Surveys Traffic surveys were carried out to establish the traffic flow characteristics, travel pattern, delays on the corridor and user s willingness to pay toll. The following surveys were conducted at different locations of NH-3 in the section between Vadape and Gonde. Following were the main types of traffic surveys carried out by the Consultant. 1) Classified Traffic Volume Counts. 2) Origin Destination Surveys (O-D). 3) Speed and Delay Survey. 4) Turning Movement Survey. 5) Willingness to Pay Survey. 155

Based on reconnaissance survey and past studies, the project corridor has been divided into the following three homogeneous traffic sections: Section I : Section II : Section III: Gonde to Igatpuri (440 km to 458 km). Igatpuri to Shahpur (458 to 512 km). Shahpur to Vadape (512 km to 539/500 km). The volume count and OD surveys were conducted at these three locations, one each on the 3 homogeneous sections of the project corridor. Traffic Survey locations for carrying out traffic surveys were selected after site reconnaissance and were presented in Inception Report. The traffic survey locations along with survey schedule are presented in Table 8.1, Traffic Survey Locations and Schedule. The time schedule for the surveys (Table 8.1, Traffic Survey Locations and Schedule) was prepared as per the requirements of the study and in conformity with the TOR. 8.2.1 Classified Traffic Volume Count Survey The 7 day (24 hour, both directions) classified traffic volume count survey was carried out at three locations as mentioned in Table 8.1, Traffic Survey Locations and Schedule. Traffic counting was carried out manually in three, eight hour shifts on each day by trained enumerators. The count data were recorded at 15-minute intervals using hand tallies and total vehicles per hour for each vehicle category were computed. The traffic volume count data was processed using the commonly used spread sheet package. The processed hourly traffic volume data has been compiled direction-wise. 156

Type of Survey Classified Traffic Volume Count. Origin Destination Survey. Speed and Delay Survey. Turning Movement Survey. Willingness to Pay Survey. Table 8.1: Traffic Survey Locations and Schedule Duration Location Chainage (Km) Date of Survey Khamble (Near Hotel Darna) 452.000 Khardi (Near Khardi ST Bus 493.800 64-04-02 24 Hours Stand) To Padgha (Near Moonlite 533.00 22-04-02 Resorts) 24 Hours Khamble (Near Hotel Darna) 452.000 19-04-02 Khardi (Near New Sai Krupa 483.000 18-04-02 Hotel) Padgha (Near Moonlite 533.000 17-04-02 Resorts) 2 Days Entire Project Corridor 21-04-02 & 22-04-02 12 Hours Vaitarna Junction (SH-12) 452.800 22-04-02 12 Hours Igatpuri Junction 458.635 22-02-02 12 Hours Khardi Railway Station Vada 493.830 22-04-02 Junction (SH-36) 12 Hours Shahpur Murbad Junction 512.450 22-04-02 (SH-37) 12 Hours Asangaon Junction * 514.950 20-04-02 8 Hours Bapgaon Junction (SH-40) 535.000 20-04-02 8 Hours Bhiwandi Bypass Junction 539.500 20-04-02 Khamble 452.000 19-04-02 Khardi 483.000 18-04-02 Padgha 533.00 17-04-02 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. *Turning movement count survey - at this junction was not anticipated at Inception Resort stage. However, straight movement count on the crossing road i.e. Asangaon Shahpur was carried out to have a better understanding of the Asangaon Shahpur traffic. Data collected from site was analyzed to study daily variation and hourly variation of traffic, peak hour share, traffic composition and Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at all the survey locations. The various vehicle types having different sizes and characteristics were converted into equivalent passenger car units. The Passenger Car Unit (PCU) factors recommended by Indian Road Congress in Guidelines for 157

Capacity of Roads in Rural Areas (IRC: 64-1990) were used. (Table 8.2, Values of Passenger Car Unit Factors for different vehicle Categories). Table 8.2: Values of Passenger Car Unit Factors for Different Vehicle Categories Vehicle Type PCU Factor Two Wheeler 0.50 Auto Rickshaw 0.75 Car/Jeep 1.00 Van//Tempo (Passenger) 1.00 Mini Bus 1.50 Standard Bus 3.00 LCV 2.00 2xAxle Rigid Truck 3.00 3xAxle Rigid Truck 3.00 MAV 4.50 Tractor 3.00 Tractor Trailer 4.50 Animal / Hand Drawn Vehicles 4.00 Cycle 0.50 Source: Guidelines for capacity of Roads in Rural Areas (IRC 64-1990). Average Daily Traffic (ADT): Daily traffic volume by vehicle type and direction were added separately and averaged to determine the Average Daily Traffic. Average Daily Traffic (ADT), at all the three locations, by vehicle type is presented in Table 8.3, Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on the Project Corridor. 158

Table 8.3: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on the Project Corridor Vehicle Type Khambale Khardi Padgha Average (Section I) (Section II) (Section III) Two Wheeler 1,513 597 1,285 1,132 Auto Rickshaw 443 121 632 399 Car/Jeep 3,614 3,106 3,279 3,333 Van//Tempo (Passenger) 508 104 382 331 Mini Bus 119 74 105 99 Standard Bus 631 638 570 613 LCV 1,385 1,355 1,340 1,360 2xAxle Rigid Truck 3,862 3,858 4,101 3,940 3xAxle Rigid Truck 646 594 647 629 MAV 354 325 342 340 Tractor 22 4 6 11 Tractor Trailer 41 10 2 18 Animal / Hand Drawn 59 5 6 24 Cycles 166 43 43 84 Total Vehicles 13,364 10,834 12,741 12,313 Total PCUs 25,743 23,248 25,187 24,726 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) observed along the project and section varied in the range of 10,834 13,364 VPD (vehicles per day). In terms of PCU, it varied in the range of 23,248 25,743 PCU. From the base year (2002) traffic figures at the three survey locations (Table 8.3, Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on the Project Corridor), it can be observed that the ADT at Khardi location is less compared to Padgha and Khambale count locations. The main reasons for the low traffic at Khardi are given below: 1. Comparison of ADT at Padgha and Khardi: There are two major junctions located in between Padgha and Khardi count locations viz. Shahpur Junction and 159

Khardi Railway Station Junction. From the intersection turning movement count survey at Shahpur Junction, it was observed that significant amount of traffic is leaving the project corridor (From Mumbai approach towards Shahpur and Murbad), thus reducing the through traffic towards Khardi. 2. Comparison of ADT at Khardi and Khambale: There are two major 3-armed junctions between Khardi and Khambale count locations viz. Vaitarna Junction and Igatpuri Junction. From the turning movement count survey at Igatpuri Junction, it was observed that significant amount of traffic is leaving the project corridor (From Nashik approach towards Igatpuri) thus reducing the through traffic towards Khardi. Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT): To account for the seasonal variation in the traffic, seasonal variation factors have been worked out using past traffic data on the project corridor. Seasonal variation factors are estimated for each category of vehicles by taking the ratio of December count and average of May and December count. Daily Variation of Traffic: Daily traffic variation in terms of vehicles as well as in PCU at each of the survey locations are plotted shown in Table 8.4, Daily Variation of Traffic. Location-wise variation of traffic with respected to average is presented in Table 8.5, Location wise Variation of Traffic. Location Max Traffic (Veh.) Table 8.4: Daily Variation of Traffic Min Traffic (Veh.) average Traffic (Veh.) % Variation of max. traffic w.r.t. average % Variation of min. traffic w.r.t. average Khambale 14,389 12,315 13,696 5.06% 10.08% Khardi 12,148 9,891 11,169 8.77% 11.44% Padgha 13,859 11,656 13,109 5.72% 11.09% 160

Table 8.5: Location-wise Variation of Traffic Location Traffic in PCUs % variation w.r.t. average Khambale 25743 4% Khardi 23248-6% Padgha 25187 2% Average 24726 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. Directional Distribution: Directional distribution of traffic forms an important input for capacity analysis. At km 452.00 (Khambale) and km 533.00 (Padgha) directional split works out to 51/49 (Mumbai / Nashik), whereas at km 493.80 (Khardi) it is estimated at 50/50 (Mumbai / Nashik). This indicates that the directional distribution on the entire project corridor is nearly uniform and a value of 50/50 (Mumbai / Nashik) is adopted for all the sections for capacity analysis. Traffic Composition: The composition of 4-wheeled motorized vehicles in the traffic stream at all the survey locations complied in Table 8.6, Composition of 4-Wheeled Motorized Traffic. The Table 8.6, Composition of 4-Wheeled Motorized Traffic, brings out the following: Passenger vehicle category: Car/Van/Tempo constitutes over 34% while buses account for only 7%. Freight vehicle category: Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) constitute about 13%, while 2-axle/3axle rigid trucks and Multi Axle Vehicles (MAV) account for 43% and 3% respectively. Proportion of Volvo Trucks in total MAV is about 4% - 15%. 161

Table 8.6: Composition of 4-Wheeled Motorized Traffic Mode Composition Car / Jeep 31% Van / Tempo (Pass) 3% Mini Bus 1% Standard Bus 6% LCV 13% 2-Axle Truck 37% 3-Axle Truck 6% MAV 3% Total 100% Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. 8.2.2 Origin Destination Survey The origin-destination survey was carried out with the primary objective of studying the travel pattern of passenger and goods traffic along the study corridor. The results of this survey form a useful input for estimating the growth rates for traffic projections, identification of toll plaza location and planning for toll collection system. The O-D survey was carried out for one day at three locations i.e. Khambale (km 452-00) on 19-04-2002, Khardi (km 483.00) on 18-04-2002 and at Padgha (km 533.00) on 17-04-2002 simultaneously along with classified volume count. Roadside Interview Method was adopted for conducting the survey. The vehicles were stopped on random sample basis with the help of police and the drivers were interviewed by trained enumerators to collect the needed information / data. The pertinent information in respect of travel characteristics including the following were collected during these interviews: Origin and destination of the trip. Trip length. 162

Trip purpose. Trip time. Number of passengers. Commodity type and load. The O-D survey was limited to only car and bus in passenger vehicles category and trucks (LCV, 2 axle / 3 axle rigid, MAV) in freight vehicle category. The sample size of the survey as percentage to the total traffic on the day of OD Survey is presented in Table 8.7, Sample Size of OD Survey. Table 8.7: Sample Size of OD Survey Vehicle Type Location Padgha Khardi Khambale Car 21% 30% 20% Bus 19% 42% 42% Overall Passenger 21% 32% 23% LCV 17% 17% 16% 2 Axle / 3 Axle 13% 15% 14% MAV 26% 34% 28% Overall Freight 15% 17% 15% Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. It can be observed that through traffic is very high at Khardi OD survey location (986% passenger and 88% freight) as compared to Khamable and Padgha OD survey locations. This is due to the fact that Khardi OD survey location (km 483.00) is away from influence of local traffic, while at Khambale location, OD pattern is influenced by Igatpuri and Ghoti Towns and at Padgha traffic pattern is influenced by Padgha / Vashind. High volume of through traffic indicates the importance of the Project Road section as an important corridor serving the inter-state traffic. 163

Mumbai, being the major centre for industrial concentration, business and commercial activities, generates sizable passenger traffic and freight traffic on the Project Road followed by Nashik. Other important place from which significant traffic generation was observed is Shirdi. State-wise analysis of traffic pattern shows that about 96% - 97% of passenger trips and 79% - 84% of freight trips are destined / originated within Maharashtra only. Therefore, Maharashtra can broadly be considered as the area contributing majority of traffic to the Project Road for all projection purposes. Commodity Analysis: The commodity analysis shows that share of empty trucks is about 29% - 34% out of the total freight traffic. Coal/Other Minerals, Food Grains, Cash Crops, Fruits and Vegetables, Forest Products, Building Materials, Petroleum Products, Iron and Steel, Chemicals, Cement, Fertilizers, Sugar, Textile Products, Paper, Machinery, Other Manufacturing Products, Milk, Poultry, Live Stock, Miscellaneous Products are the important commodities transported on the Project Road. Trip Purpose: It was observed that the percentage share of work, business and tourism / religious trips are high (constitute about 75% of passenger trips). High percentage of social / tourism trips can be attributed to number of tourist / pilgrimage places in the project influence area. Occupancy and Trip Length: The analysis of O-D data for passenger vehicles (car) shows that the average occupancy of the Car is 3.4. The average trip length is observed to be about 240 km. 8.2.3 Speed and Delay Survey The speed and delay survey was conducted using the Moving Car Observer Method. The survey was conducted to know the journey speed of traffic stream. 164

For this purpose, the study corridor has been divided into 6 sections. Total two runs were made on the project corridor. Information on journey time, number of vehicles in opposite direction, number of vehicles overtaken by the test car, vehicles overtaking the test car and any delays occurring enroute were recorded during the survey. It was observed that the average speed at Igatpuri junction and Kasara Junction (Ghat Section) is lowest (i.e. 29 kmph). The average speed on Vaitarna junction and Igatpuri junction is also less due to the influence of heavy local traffic of Igatpuri and Ghoti. The average speed on the project corridor was 35 to 36 kmph. 8.2.4 Turning Movement Survey The turning movement survey was conducted to obtain information on direction wise and mode wise turning movement of traffic at 7 important intersections namely Vaitarna Junction, Igatpuri Junction, Khardi Junction, Shahapur Junction, Asangaon Junction, Bapgaon Junction and Bhiwandi Junction on the project corridor. The survey was conducted for 12/16 hours covering both morning and evening peak hours. The peak hour directional movement data would be used to plan the improvement scheme such as, at-grade intersections with or without provision of traffic signals, interchanges and for design of intersections etc. From the analysis of turning movement survey data the following inferences are made: General Inferences: High percentage of right turning traffic has been observed at Bhiwandi Bypass, Asangaon and Shahpur Junctions. Minimum percentage of right turning traffic has been observed at Bapgaon Junction. High percentage of total turning traffic has been observed at Shahpur and Bhiwandi Bypass Junctions. 165

Minimum percentage of total turning traffic has been observed at Bapgaon Junction. Specific Inferences: At Asangaon junction most of the cross traffic is auto rickshaws. Local people commute from Shahpur town to Mumbai by catching a local train from Asangaon Railway Station. It is understood that around 500 autos are operating in Shahpur town in which most of the autos run between Shahpur Town and Asangaon Railway Station. 8.2.5 Willingness to Pay Survey The objective of this survey was to know the users opinion on imposition of toll and their acceptability to pay toll to travel on the improved facility. In this survey the users were asked directly to state their willingness to pay for the improved facility. Respondents were also asked to state their level of acceptance for various toll rates. Information was also collected on their trip characteristics. The collected data was useful for identifying the willingness to pay and fixation of optimum toll rates for various road users. This survey was conducted at the roadside amenity centers like Dhabas, Restaurants and Fuel Stations along the project corridor. Consultants have conducted 500 interviews of truck users and 450 interviews of car users. As the main objective of 4/6 laning of Vadape-Gonde section of NH-3 is to formulate a project suitable for execution as a toll project, there is a need for assessing the users' willingness to pay so that the investment decision is justified and returns are realistic. In general road users are not willing to pay the toll as expected for such facility. The reasons could be as follows: Poor assessment on perceiving the benefits especially the savings in vehicle operating costs and accident reduction benefits. Generally, road users express willingness to pay high toll, if the facility is either a new road entirely or a bypass. The present project, being a widening 166

work, the road users might have expressed low toll rates. Moreover, at present the existing road provides moderate level of service and there are no major bottlenecks such as narrow bridges etc. except at Kasara Ghat section where the speeds are very low. 8.3 Capacity Guidelines Capacity analysis is a fundamental aspect of planning, design and operation of roads, and provides, among other things, the basis for determining the carriageway width to be provided with respect to the volume and composition of traffic. Capacity of multilane (more than 2-lane) rural roads is more crucial in the design of carriageway, as there are no sufficient IRC guidelines on the same. Consultants have rationally worked out the capacity of 4/6 lane divided carriageways based on the guidelines / methods given by Indian Roads Congress (IRC) and Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). Further the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also provided some guidelines on capacity of multi-lane highways. Indian Roads Congress (IRC) has recommended capacity values for various lane configurations in IRC: 64-1990: Guidelines for Capacity of Roads in Rural Areas. 8.3.1 Recommended Design Service Volume for Multi-Lane Roads by the IRC The IRC has recommended tentatively, a daily capacity of 70,000 PCUs for four-lane divided carriageways located in plain terrain (In absence of sufficient information about the capacity of multi-lane roads under mixed traffic conditions). This capacity will be applicable if the carriageway has reasonable good earthen shoulders on the either side, and a minimum 3.0 m wide central verge. Provision of hard shoulders on dual carriageways can further increase the capacity. In case well designed paved shoulders of 1.5 m width are provided, the daily capacity of four-lane dual roads can be taken up to 80,000 PCUs. The applicable capacity for the project corridor with widening and improvement is 80,000 PCUs/day. Consultants have calculated the Design Service Volume for various Levels of Service. 167

8.3.2 Highway Capacity Manual Maximum Service Flow Rates at different Levels-of-Service calculated based on Maximum Capacity Manual (HCM) guidelines for multi-lane highways (considering the directional split and peak hour traffic). 8.3.3 The ADB Guidelines The Asian Development Bank (AD) B has recommended the following capacity standards (ADB III Road Project Guidelines) for different lane configurations. Single Lane with earthen Shoulders Two Lane Carriageway with earthen Shoulders Two Lane Carriageway with Paved Shoulders : 6,000 PCUs/day : 30,000 PCUs/day : 35,000 PCUs/day Four Lane Divided Carriageway with Earthen Shoulders: 1,00,000 PCUs/day Four Lane Divided Carriageway with Paved Shoulders: 1,10,000 PCUs/day From the analysis of capacity guidelines provided by IRC, HCM and ADB, following inferences were drawn: The capacity of 4-lane divided carriageway calculated based on the IRC guidelines i.e. 80,000 PCUs/Day is on lower side and more over this was recommended in absence of sufficient research on capacity of multi-lane highway for mixed traffic conditions. ADB and HCM give a higher value of capacity compared to IRC. Consultants are of the opinion that, considering the amount of research and practical background behind the HCM procedures, capacity values obtained from HCM procedure are more appropriate for finalizing the carriageway for the project corridor. Hence the HCM guidelines have been adopted for the present study. 168

8.4 Assessment of Growth Rates Long term forecasting of traffic on the Project Road during the time horizon of the study is required for design of highway and assessing the economic and financial viability of the proposed investment. To establish the future traffic growth rates, following approaches have been explored. Past trends in traffic growth on the Project Road. Growth of registered motor vehicles. Transport demand elasticity approach. 8.4.1 Growth Rate based on Past Traffic Data Past traffic data as collected from PWD is available for two locations (Igatpuri and Padgha) along the project corridor. These data are available for May and December months of last 10 years. The growth rates were worked out for various categories of vehicles and conclusions were drawn. Non-Uniformity in past traffic data of PWD may be attributed to errors during collection and processing of data and policy measures of the Government and other influences etc. To illustrate this point during recent past tourist bus operation is banned because of dispute with the State Government over increase in taxes. It is further noted from the OD survey that operation of trucks carrying petroleum products has come down on the Project Road as pipe lines are laid to carry the same. As the past traffic data on the Project Road is not showing any definite trend, one should not be guided by past traffic data for deriving growth rates. 8.4.2 Growth Rate based on Vehicle Registration An alternative approach is to explore the registered motor vehicles growth in the influence area and assume a growth rate equal to the average growth of vehicle registration. Such an assumption may not be correct, unless the area of influence is well defined and the general development pattern of influence area remains same. 169

However, this would be an alternative approach in the absence of any additional information or useable past traffic data on the Project Road. It may be emphasized here that 96-97% of passenger traffic and 79%-84% of freight traffic is destined / originating within Maharashtra. Therefore, there is a strong influence of number of registered vehicles in Maharashtra on traffic on the Project Road. The growth rates for various modes are estimated and presented in Table 8.8, Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Maharashtra. It can be observed from the above Table, during the last 6 years, average growth of two wheelers is around 10%; growth of cars is about 8%-14% and that of trucks is 5%-11%. The high growth rate of more than 10% may not sustain in future. Therefore other rational approaches to be explored in order to derive realistic growth rates. Table 8.8: Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Maharashtra Period Two Three Cars Bus Truck Tractor Wheeler Wheeler 1987-1988 15.55% 8.42% 6.19% 1.80% 3.77% 6.53% 1988-1989 13.62% -12.81% 6.64% 2.94% 6.55% 10.34% 1989-1990 10.69% 11.27% 4.66% 14.13% 5.41% 10.05% 1990-1991 9.27% 9.59% 4.58% 3.64% 6.34% 11.39% 1991-1992 8.10% 9.50% 2.90% 3.32% 5.27% 11.37% 1992-1993 5.99% 7.65% -16.39% -0.94% -1.80% 6.27% 1993-1994 9.56% 12.36% 10.08% 23.02% 10.21% 9.81% 1994-1995 10.49% 15.49% 10.26% 7.98% 8.31% 10.61% 1995-1996 11.13% 14.74% 9.71% 9.02% 9.57% 13.35% 1996-1997 10.72% 19.02% 13.45% 6.62% 10.91% 15.645 1997-1998 10.98% 18.97% 47.91% 5.60% 9.95% 12.07% 1998-1999 10.23% 10.14% 7.83% 3.50% 6.85% 10.22% 1999-2000 8.32% 6.71% 9.06% 3.03% 5.35% 6.66% 170

Since the Project Road falls in Thane and Nashik Districts, these districts predominantly influence the Project Road. Analysis of number of registered motor vehicles was carried out to see the past growth. The past growth in the number of registered vehicles is presented in Table 8.9, Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Thane District and Table 8.10, Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Nashik District, for Thane and Nashik districts respectively. Duration Table 8.9: Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Thane District Two Wheeler Three Wheeler Car Bus Truck Tractor Trailer 1995-1996 17% 22% 35% 10% 16% 5% 13% 1996-1997 19% 21% 36% 7% 12% 7% 31% 1997-1998 19% 17% 27% 9% -11% 8% 15% 1998-1999 11% 13% 17% 6% 7% 3% 10% Duration Table 8.10: Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in Nashik District Two Wheeler Three Wheeler Car Bus Truck Tractor Trailer 1995-1996 11% 13% 10% 5% 7% 22% 12% 1996-1997 10% 20% 20% 4% 8% 13% 14% 1997-1998 11% 23% 15% 3% 5% 11% 18% 1998-1999 12% 13% 12% 2% 6% 12% 1% It can be observed from the above tables that the growth of registered motor vehicles in Thane District is higher than that of Nashik District. The growth of two wheelers is about 11%-19% in Thane. While it is 10%-12% in Nashik. Similarly growth of cars is about 17%-36% in Thane where as in Nashik it is about 10%-20%. 171

8.4.3 Transport Demand Elasticity Approach Elasticity in the present context is defined as the ratio of percentage change in traffic to the percentage change in socio-economic parameters. The concept of developing regression equation to express dependent variable in terms of one or more independent variable is the registered motor vehicles in the zone of influence (State). The preferred dependent variable would have been past traffic on the Project Road. However, due to inconsistencies in past traffic data, number of registered motor vehicles is taken as dependent variable. The independent variables are socioeconomic parameters. The choice of independent variable depends upon vehicle type under consideration. It is logical to relate growth in cars and two wheelers with Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) and per capita income; buses with NSDP, and population; and commercial vehicle growth with NSDP, Industrial and agriculture output, etc. The analysis of the O-D survey data along the project corridor indicates a strong influence of Maharashtra state in the traffic generation / attraction. Nearly 96%-97% percent of passenger traffic and 79%-84% percent of freight traffic in this section are either originating from or destined to various parts of Maharashtra. As the traffic contribution is mainly from the Maharashtra State, Consultants have developed the transport demand elasticities with respect to economic indicators of Maharashtra. The methodology involved fitting log-log regression equations to the time series data. NSDP, Population, Per Capita Income, Industrial Index and number of registered motor vehicles in Maharashtra are considered as independent variables for passenger and freight vehicles. Elasticity values for registered motor vehicles with respect of NSDP, Population, Per Capita Income and Industrial Index are worked out and conclusions are drawn. 8.4.4 Comparison of Growth Rates by Various Methods Mode wise growth rates arrived by different methods are presented in Table 8.11, Comparison of Growth Rates by Various Methods. It can be observed that growth rate 172

of two wheelers varies between 11%-17%, while growth rate of cars varies between 12%-28% and that of bus and truck varies between 3%-9% and 5%-11% respectively. Table 8.11: Comparison of Growth Rates by Various Methods Method Two Wheeler Mode Car Bus Truck Past Traffic on Project Corridor No trend No trend No trend No trend Vehicle Registration of Maharashtra (1995-2000) Vehicle Registration of Thane District (1995-1999) Vehicle Registration of Nashik District (1995-1999) 11% 12% 7% 9% 17% 28% 8% 5% 11% 14% 3% 7% Elasticity Method (up to 2005) 12% 18% 9% 11% Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. 8.4.5 Suggested Growth Rates The estimated growth rates based on past traffic data have no definite trend. Therefore registered motor vehicles growth in Maharashtra is explored. It showed a growth more than 10%. These past growth rates cannot be used for estimating future traffic on the Project Road. The future traffic may not follow these growth rates due to several reasons, like changes in price of new vehicles, fuel and taxes on several commodities. Any substantial change in policy (e.g., fare, travel, time, loading and unloading of goods, etc.) and infrastructure (e.g. Improvement of existing rail services, new railway line, etc.) may also affect the traffic volume on the Project Road. It is possible to predict independently the socio-economic variables like population, per capita income, NSDP, GNP etc. for future years and then assess future traffic growth rates using elasticity values already developed based on past data. This is theoretically a sound and acceptable approach. However, in a developing country with fluctuating economy, there will always be some uncertainties in assessing the socio-economic variables for future years. 173

Based on the above discussions and in discussion with MoRT&H officials, following growth rates (Table 8.12, Suggested Traffic Growth Rates) have been suggested and adopted for projecting future traffic. The slow moving traffic is not expected to have high growth rates on National Highways. As such, a growth rate of 2% per annum has been considered for slow moving traffic. Vehicle Type Table 8.12: Suggested Traffic Growth Rates. Upto 2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016 to 2020 Beyond 2020 Two Wheeler/Car 6 5.5 5 4 3 Bus/Auto 5 4 3.5 3 3 LCV/Trucks 6 5 4.5 4 3 Tractor 4 3 3 3 3 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. 8.5 Traffic Forecast Daily traffic volume, by vehicle type and direction, at each of the three locations is added separately and averaged to determine the Average Daily Traffic (ADT). Seasonal variation factors have been applied to get The Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT). The estimated AADT along the project road section varied in the range of 11,169 13,696 VPD (vehicles per day). In terms of PCU, it varied in the range of 23,887 26,675 PCU. It may be mentioned that, Vadape-Gonde section of NH-3 is a well-established road corridor over a number of years. There are no alternate routes between Vadape and Gonde other than the existing road section of NH-3. The existing road will be widened to 4/6 lanes to cater to the existing and forecasted traffic and the users would still use the same road with improved facility. As such, it is expected that the component of diverted traffic is insignificant. On enquiry, it was gathered that, there would be marginal increase in industrial development along the project corridor. Also, there would be some diversion of 174

traffic, once the Ghoti-Sinner-Aurangabad Road becomes operational. This component of traffic is presently using NH-50 from Sinner to Chakan, further SH-55 (from Chakan to Talegaon) and Mumbai-Pune Expressway/ NH-4 to reach Mumbai. It is expected that the component of the generated traffic would be of the order 2% of the traffic on the project corridor. Moreover, the generated traffic would be usually considered during first three years of operation of the facility and the same is considered in the present study i.e. during the period 2007-2009. Using the growth rates presented in Table 8.12, Suggested Traffic Growth Rates, the traffic has been projected upto the horizon year 2032. Traffic forecast, both normal and generated traffic, in terms of vehicles and PCU, for the horizon years 2005-2032 at 5 year intervals for all the three locations (Khambale, Khardi and Padgha) are presented in Table 8.13, Traffic Forecast Section I (Khambale), Table 8.14, Traffic Forecast Section II (Khardi) and Table 8.15, Traffic Forecast Section III (Padgha) respectively. 175

Table 8.13: Traffic Forecast Section I (Khambale) Year Twowheelers Auto Car/ Jeep Van/ Tempo Bus LCV Truck MAV Tractor Slow moving Vehicles Total Vehicles 2002 1513 443 3620 509 807 145 4701 370 63 225 13696 26675 Total PCU 2005 1802 513 4311 606 934 1721 5599 440 71 239 16237 31626 2010 2497 661 5973 840 1205 2328 7575 596 87 279 22041 42691 2015 3186 785 7623 1072 1431 2901 9440 742 101 309 27591 53133 2020 3877 911 9274 1304 1659 3530 11485 903 118 341 33401 64312 2025 4494 1056 10751 1512 1923 4092 13315 1047 136 376 38702 74528 2030 5210 1224 12464 1753 2229 4744 15435 1214 158 415 44846 86369 2031 5366 1260 12838 1805 2296 4886 15899 1250 163 424 46187 88954 2032 5527 1298 13223 1859 2365 5033 16376 1287 168 432 47568 91617 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. 176

Table 8.14: Traffic Forecast Section II (Khardi) Year Twowheelers Auto Car/ Jeep Van/ Tempo Bus LCV Truck MAV Tractor Slow moving Vehicles Total Vehicles 2002 597 121 3264 109 679 1414 4587 335 13 49 11169 23887 Total PCU 2005 711 140 3888 130 786 1684 5463 399 15 52 13268 28373 2010 985 181 5386 181 1014 2278 7391 539 19 61 18034 38363 2015 1257 215 6874 230 1204 2838 9211 672 22 67 22590 47799 2020 1530 249 8363 280 1396 3453 11206 817 25 74 27394 57937 2025 1773 289 9695 325 1619 4003 12991 948 29 81 31753 67161 2030 2056 335 11240 377 1876 4641 15060 1099 34 90 36806 77854 2031 217 345 11577 388 1933 4780 15512 1132 35 92 37910 80189 2032 2181 355 11924 400 1991 4924 15977 1165 36 94 39046 82594 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. 177

Table 8.15: Traffic Forecast Section III (Padgha) Year Twowheelers Auto Car/ Jeep Van/ Tempo Bus LCV Truck MAV Tractor Slow moving Vehicles Total Vehicles 2002 1285 632 3446 401 645 1397 4893 353 8 49 13109 25884 Total PCU 2005 1530 731 4104 478 746 1664 5828 420 9 52 15564 30745 2010 2120 943 5686 662 963 2251 7885 568 11 61 21150 41589 2015 2706 1120 7256 844 1143 2805 9826 708 13 67 26491 51841 2020 3292 1299 8829 1027 1325 3413 11955 862 15 74 32092 62833 2025 3817 1506 10235 1191 1536 3957 13859 999 18 82 37199 72837 2030 4425 1745 11865 1381 1781 4587 16066 1158 21 91 43119 2031 4557 1798 12221 1422 1834 4725 16548 1193 21 93 44412 2032 4694 1852 12588 1465 1889 4867 17044 1229 22 94 45743 Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. 178

8.6 Projected Tollable Traffic For the purpose of BOT / Financial Analysis, the project corridor has been divided into the following two sections. Section I : km 440 to km 490 50 km Section II : km 490 to km 540 50 km Two toll plazas have been proposed in km 446/000 to 447/000 for Section I and in km 521/00 to 521/500 in Section II. The traffic of Khambale location is considered for Section I and that of Padgha for Section II. An estimation of tollable traffic for levying toll on the Project Road section is necessary since the Project Road is conceived as toll project with partial access control. Hence it is not desirable to levy toll on local traffic which is of short distance nature. For this purpose the OD survey information was used to separate out the local traffic component from total traffic. About 70% of passenger vehicles (excluding 2-Wheeler, Auto Rickshaw and Tempo) and 75% of goods vehicles (excluding agricultural tractors) will be tolled. Share of tollable traffic among goods vehicles is high. About 25% of goods vehicles are nontollable. This may be mainly due to LCVs having short haul trips near the urban areas. In additional, it is assumed that 3% of total traffic consisting of Government Vehicles, Ambulances, Fire Fighting Vehicles etc. would be exempted from paying toll. 8.7 Traffic Signals and Interchanges Consultants have studied the requirement of traffic signals and interchanges at the major junctions on project corridor as per IRC: 93-1985 (Guidelines on Design and Installation of Traffic Signals), IRC: 92-1985 (Guidelines for the design of Interchanges in Urban Areas) and IRC: SP: 41-1994 (Guidelines for the Design of At- Grade Intersections in Rural and Urban Areas) etc. 179

Brief summary on Warrants for Interchanges as per IRC: 92-1985 is presented below:- Interchanges will be necessary at all crossings of highway which are to be developed as completely access controlled. An interchange may be justified at the crossing of a major arterial road with another road of similar category carrying heavy traffic. An interchange may be justified when an at-grade intersections fails to handle the volume of traffic resulting in serious congestion and frequent choking of the intersection. This situation may arise when the traffic on all the arms of the intersection is in excess of 10,000 PCU s/hour. High and disproportionate rate of fatal and major accidents at an intersection and not found to respond to other traffic control or improvement measures may warrant an interchange. In some situations, the topography is such that interchanges are the only type that can be constructed economically. Considering the projected junction volume in horizon years, it was inferred that, fully grade separated interchange facilities are not required. However, the other warrants like topography, number of accidents etc. need to be studied for proposing the partially grade separated facilities at the junctions. Traffic flow diagrams for the seven intersections separately for the base year (2002) and horizon year (2032) are studied. Traffic volume has been complied in such a way that IRC warrants for installation of traffic signals can be identified (i.e. traffic volume in Veh. /Hr. on major road and minor road at the Junctions to study the requirement of traffic signals at the Junctions). Various major intersections warrant for traffic signal system in various horizon years. As per the IRC warrants, the required traffic control facilities at the major junctions are traffic signals, as mentioned above. However, considering the following aspects, 180

the Consultants have proposed flyovers / vehicular underpasses / median breaks along with junction improvements, as an alternative to traffic signal system. Difficulties in maintenance of traffic signal system at junctions located on rural roads. Number of fatal accidents on the project corridor. Favourable topography for construction of vehicular underpasses at some junctions. Project corridor is partially access controlled. The proposed junction improvement measures are presented in Table 8.16, Proposed Junction Improvements Measures. Junction Name Table 8.16: Proposed Junction Improvements Measures Proposed Junction Improvement Remarks Vaitarna Junction Igatpuri Junction Khardi Junction Shahpur Junction Asangaon Junction Bapgaon Junction Median Break along with blinking traffic signals Median Break along with blinking traffic signals Vehicular Underpass Vehicular Underpass Vehicular Underpass Vehicular Underpass Unfavourable topography for an underpass i.e. the vicinity of junction is water-logged area. Unfavourable topography for an underpass i.e. the vicinity of junction is water-logged area. Favourable topography for an underpass. Favourable topography for an underpass. Favourable topography for an underpass. Favourable topography for an underpass. Source: DPR for 4/6-laning of Gonde Vadape Section of NH-3, Volume IV. 181