Electric Vehicles in Canada SFU Mechatronic Systems Engineering The time is right for electric vehicles. In fact, the time is crucial -Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault Motors
Recent History of EV Sales in Canada Fact: Canadians pay LESS for electricity In 2012: There were 1969 new EVs on the road (CAN: 0.11% of new car sales) (USA: 0.3% of market share) In 2013: There were 3106 new EVs on the road (CAN: 0.18% of new car sales) (USA:0.6% of market share) In 2014: There were 2834 new EVs on the road (CAN: 0.27% of new car sales) (USA: 0.7% of market) So far At the end of September 2014, there were more than 9,500 plug-in electric vehicles on Canadian Roads More than 90% of Electric Vehicles sales have been made in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia (these 3 provinces accounts for only 75% of Canadian population)
Government Policies on Accelerating the Uptake of Electric Vehicles In 2011: BC launched an incentive for installing charging stations, purchasing charging equipment and purchasing electric vehicles. Note: This expired as of March 31 st, 2014 In 2010: Ontario issued rebates from $5000-$8500 towards purchasing or leasing EV. Quebec issues rebates up to $8000 for EV and $1000 for charging station. Manitoba, Alberta.. And the rest: No incentives
Government Policies on Accelerating the Uptake of Electric Vehicles Cont. Why is government intervention necessary? Problem: High initial cost of purchasing an EV that deters most consumers. Solution Policies are lessoning the consumer s financial burden with a subsidy of significant rebates and incentives. Problem: Not enough infrastructure to support the wide spread EV use. Solution Policies to create funding to improve infrastructure along side the growth of EV. Problem: Difficult to provide sustained technological improvement in the EV industry. Solution Policies that provide grants and/or loans for research, development and deployment and EV solutions.
United States Electric Vehicle Policies USA Aiming for 1,000,000 EVs by 2015 (1.7% of total sales through 2015) 2.4 billion in loans and 2 billion grants to relevant manufacturing sectors and R&D. Ex) - In 2012, allocated a budget of 268 million for battery, fuel cell and infrastructure R&D. - Over 360 million dollars to support the coordinated demonstration of EVs. - 2 billion in investment tax credits in advanced energy projects. - $2,500 $7,500 tax credits for purchasing EVs. - Tax credit of 30% for the cost for commercial infrastructure Installation fee.
United States Electric Vehicle Policies Cont.
In Canada Goal to have ½ million EVs on Canadian roads by 2018. But.. Federal government assistance is required
Japan Country Policies Today Is a leader in sophisticated design of new charging/battery technologies Government supports to pay for ½ of the price difference between EV and corresponding ICE vehicles (up to $10, 000 difference between the two models) Government supports to pay for ½ of the price of electric Vehicle supply equipment (up to 15,000 dollars) Norway EV capital of the world Has bigger EV market share than any other countries (over 6% in 2013, Canada was at 0.18%) Aims to achieve zero emission status by 2020 Government provides the following benefits No purchase taxes until 2018 Exemption from 25% of VAT on purchase No charges on toll roads Free municipal parking's, bus lane access
Where Does this Put Us? Canada is one of the leading countries in adopting EVs. However, at this rate its almost impossible to reach our goal of having 500,000 EV on the road. To be a leader in EV sales more revolutionary policies need to be employed. Goal: Shock The Market
How to Shock the Market? 1. Visibility is key! 2. Employ early adopters!
Shocking the Market Cont. Subsidies provide the consumer with the tools to overcome the initial cost of entering the EV market. Subsidies at a provincial level is not stable in the long run as it depends on the interest of governing political party as well as financial condition of provincial government. Considering that EV market is still at its infancy, subsidy is a key booster.
How Much of a Shock do we Need? Assuming that financial health of both levels of governments are stable. Federal subsidy should match provincial subsidy dollar for dollar so that estimated payback period is less than 2.5 years Assume that a consumer purchases a new car every fourfive years. They need to realize a payback well before that period.
Population: 5,137,000 (2013 census) Expected sales in 2014: 15,000 Estimates/goal Norway Currently has the highest share of EV per capita EVs on the road by 2015: 50,000 EVs per capita in 2015: 0.0097 EVs on the road by 2020: 100,000 Evs per capita in 2020: 0.0195 - estimates by Nobil The population of Canada is 35,500,000 (2014 census). In order to achieve 0.02 EVs per capita by 2019, we need 700,000 EVs on the road. We have to sell 700,000. ($4000 subsidized by federal government) % of Total sales(using 2013 as reference) Yr1: 66,000 (3.88%) Yr2: 95,200 (5.60%) Upon establishing similar ideas as those in Norway Yr3: 210,400 (12.4%) the % of EV sales in respect to total sales Yr4: 170,000 (10.0%) sky rocketed. Yr5: 160,000 (9.41%) The corresponding numbers are shown for Canada
Building Charging Stations - EVSE Build more charging infrastructure across Canada mainly in populated region Ex) Assumption: 1. 100-150 fast charging station needed in California, we have 13x the regional area of California 2. $65,000 estimated per station 3. $2,000 estimated yearly maintenance cost BC+AB+SK+QB+OC+MB = 13* California Total Cost =13*100*(65000) = $84,500,000 Yearly maintenance cost = 2000*100*13 = $2,600,000
What do we Gain from EV`s Assumption 1. 20,000km mileage per year 2. BC Carbon tax applied Carbon tax (BC): $30 per ton Average EV emits 610 g/km of CO 2 less than ICE vehicles 12.215 ton/year of CO 2 per car Total Saving: 700,000 cars* 12.215 ton/year = 8,550,500 ton/year of CO 2 emissions
Future Gains from EV Over 7 billion dollars spent on 2010 Vancouver Olympics The 2010 Winter Olympics cost more than $7-billion to stage, but they were worth it because they spurred major infrastructure developments that helped transform Vancouver and Whistler, a new study concludes - Rob VanWynsberghe 2.88 billion dollars for EV: 1. Covers ALL of Canada 2. Provides long term benefits and future growth
Supplementary Solutions A) Government advertising. B) Promoting installations of at-home recharging facilities; influence National Research Council to modify codes at the national level. C) Automotive innovation fund. Over two years Canada provides over 500million to the fund in order to support R&D project and long-term investments in Canadian automotive sector it must be ensured that spending is geared towards EV related R&D
Conclusion Require government intervention to make a change at the national level (Subsidy). There is a large entry cost in owning an EV but the maintenance cost are extremely low. Need to provide new infrastructure along side the increase in EV on the road.