European Freight Forwarding Index Volume development in January 14 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Philip Levin phle@danskebank.dk +45 26 19 26 17 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 11 of this report. Investment Research
Main conclusion from survey Danske Bank Markets European Freight Forwarding Index indicates unchanged volumes in January compared with two months ago. The overall index of current volumes came in at 51 compared with Decembers figure of 5. Participants expectations suggest increasing volumes in the coming two months. 7 5 5 51 69 62 3 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 6 per. Mov. Avg. () 2
Volumes unchanged in January The overall index for current volumes in January of 51 (5 in December) shows unchanged volumes compared with two months ago. The forward index values are now at 62 for February and 69 for March, which indicate expectations of increasing volumes. The road index of 51 indicates that current volumes are almost unchanged from two months ago. The index decreased from Decembers figure of 55. Expectations for Road came in at 69 for March which is slightly higher than 67 in February. The forward index thus indicates expanding volumes over the next two months. The Airfreight index of 56 indicates increasing volumes compared with two months ago. The index increased from Decembers reading of 44. Expectations for Airfreight increased to 69 for March (59 in February) indicating higher volumes over the next two months. The Seafreight index of 5 indicates unchanged volumes compared with two months ago. The index for December was 44. Expectations for Seafreight for March came in at 66, which was slightly higher compared to Februarys figure of 65. The index indicates higher volumes over the next two months. 3
Segment breakdown of survey Road Seafreight mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 51 69 mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 66 5 Airfreight mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 69 56 4
Country breakdown of survey Benelux Denmark 92 81 mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 5 mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 53 Eastern Europe Finland 78 mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 21 56 mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 55 45 5
Country breakdown of survey Germany UK mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 38 69 mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 65 58 Norway Sweden 9 mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 39 39 mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 5 6
Country breakdown of survey Switzerland Other mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 88 69 mar-1 jan-11 nov-11 sep-12 jul-13 5 36 7
How the survey is conducted Our respondents have answered these two questions: What volume of goods does your company handle today compared with two months ago (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volumes Unchanged volumes Higher volumes How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volumes Unchanged volumes Higher volumes Their answers have been translated into an index value which can vary between and, with values above 5 indicating expansion among participating companies. 8
Segment breakdown for participants Other 18% Airfreight 13% Road 38% Seafreight 31% 9
Country breakdown for participants Other 8% Benelux 7% UK 14% Denmark 18% Switzerland 5% Sweden 9% Eastern Europe 12% Norway 7% Germany 11% Finland 9% 1
Disclosure This presentation has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (Danske Bank). The authors of the presentation are Erik Bergöö and Philip Levin, Analysts. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this presentation certifies that the views expressed in the presentation accurately reflect the research analysts personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the presentation. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research of Danske Bank is prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in the research policies of Danske Bank. Employees within Danske Banks Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Banks Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this presentation, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Date of first publication See the front page of this presentation for the date of first publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication. 11
General disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only and should be viewed solely in conjunction with the oral presentation provided by Danske Bank Markets and/or Danske Markets Inc. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) (Relevant Financial Instruments). The presentation has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this presentation. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the presentation and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this presentation of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in the presentation. Danske Bank, its affiliates, subsidiaries and staff may perform services for or solicit business from any issuer mentioned herein and may hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in, the financial instruments mentioned herein. The Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts of Danske Bank and undertakings with which the Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts have close links are, however, not permitted to invest in financial instruments that are covered by the relevant Equity or Corporate Bonds analyst or the research sector to which the analyst is linked. Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from Danske Bank upon request. This presentation is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This presentation is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Banks prior written consent. Disclaimer related to presentations to US customers In the United States this presentation is presented by Danske Bank and/or Danske Bank Markets Inc., a US-registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank. In the United States the presentation is intended solely for US institutional investors" as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Bank is not subject to US rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this presentation are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-us jurisdiction. Any US investor recipient of this presentation who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non-us financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-us issuers may not be registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. 12