Population and socio-economic trends in Ontario Presentation by Dr. Ivan P. Fellegi, Chief Statistician of Canada February 17 th, 2007
International migration accounts for a larger share of population growth over time Aggregated demographic components, Ontario, 1971-1972 to 2030-2031 300,000 250,000 Projected 200,000 150,000 100,000 Net international migration 50,000 Natural increase + net interprovincial migration 0 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029-50,000 Year ending June 30 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates, 1972 2006 and Population Projections: 91-520-XIE.
Toronto area dominates growth in Ontario Algoma Sudbury Nipissing Manitoulin Parry Sound Prescott and Russell Renfrew Ottawa-Gatineau Ottawa Bruce Huron Grey Dufferin Wellington Simcoe Peel Muskoka York Kawartha Lakes Toronto Haliburton Toronto Oshawa Peterborough Durham Hastings Northumberland Frontenac Prince Edward Lanark Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Leeds and Grenville Lennox and Addington Windsor Essex Perth Middlesex London Elgin Waterloo Halton Kitchener Hamilton Hamilton Brant Niagara Oxford Lambton Chatham- Kent Haldimand- Norfolk Annual rate of growth 2001-2006 (per 1,000) (number of Census Divisions) >= 12,8 (8) 0 - < 12,8 (30) < 0 (11) Ontario = 12.8 per 1,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.
Population growth is highly concentrated in urbanized areas while rural population remains static over time 12 000 000 10 000 000 Urban Rural 8 000 000 6 000 000 4 000 000 2 000 000 0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 Source: Statistics Canada, 1901 to 2001 Censuses.
The proportion of Ontarians aged 65 and over has been increasing over time: nearly 1 in 4 will be in this age group by 2031 50% 45% 0-24 Projected 40% 35% 30% 25-44 25% 20% 45-64 15% 10% 65 + 5% 0% 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates, 1921 to 2006 and Population Projections: 91-520-XIE.
Most immigrants to Ontario settle in the Toronto metropolitan area % 100 % of recent immigrants who settled in Ontario 80 68.2 73.0 77.5 Immigrants of the 1970s in 1981 Census Immigrants of the 1980s in 1991 Census 60 50.3 54.3 55.8 Immigrants of the 1990s in 2001 Census 40 20 Among which: 21.4 18.8 15.0 4.7 5.9 6.3 0 Ontario Toronto Ottawa Other CMA or CA Place of residence in Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses. 5.8 2.3 1.3 Non-CMA or CA in Ontario
Similar to the national picture, immigrants to Ontario are increasingly from Asia and the Middle East 100% Region of birth of immigrants residing in Ontario, 2001 United States 75% Europe 50% Asia and the Middle East Africa 25% Caribbean, Central and South America Oceania and other 0% Before 1961 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2001 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census. Period of immigration
By 2017, three in 10 residents of Ontario and half of Toronto could belong to a visible minority group Visible minority population in Ontario, 1981 to 2017 (reference scenario) % of population 60 50 40 30 20 Toronto Other CMAs Rest of Ont Ontario 10 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2017 Source: Statistics Canada, 1981 2001 Censuses and Population Projections: 91-541-XIE.
Nationally, Chinese are the largest visible minority group, but South Asian is largest in Ontario and could double by 2017 Composition of visible minorities in Ontario Japanese Korean 2017 (projections) 2001 Census West Asian Southeast Asian Arab Latin American Filipino Black Chinese South Asian 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 Persons in '000 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census and Population Projections: 91-541-XIE.
Muslims could lead the growth among the non-christian religions Non-Christian religious groups in Ontario, 1981 to 2017 (reference scenario) % of population 15 10 5 Muslim Jewish Buddhist Hindu Sikh Other non-christian religions 0 1981 1991 2001 2006 2011 2017 Year Source: Statistics Canada, 1981 2001 Censuses and Population Projections: 91-541-XIE.
Although knowledge of official languages increases over time for immigrants, about one in 10 immigrants still could not converse in either English or French % 100.0 Knowledge of official language for immigrants who arrived in the 1980s with a non-english / non-french mother tongue, Ontario 80.0 80.2 83.3 1991 60.0 2001 40.0 20.0 0.0 English only 0.4 0.3 French only 5.2 6.7 English and French 14.3 Knowledge of official language 9.7 Neither English nor French Source: Statistics Canada, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.
More than one-quarter million in Ontario may identify themselves as Aboriginal by 2017 Total Aboriginals 214,600 267,700 North American Indian 161,700 204,200 2001 2017 Métis 51,300 61,500 Inuit 1,600 2,100-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Note: 2001 Census counts are adjusted for census undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves. In 2017, the projected size of the Aboriginal identity population is based on demographic factors only. Although self reporting of Aboriginal identity could change over time, this element was not considered in these projections.
Aboriginal persons are concentrated in Ontario s northern electoral districts % Population in electoral district that was Aboriginal, 2001 15% or more 10 to 15% 5 to 10% Less than 5% Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.
Educational attainment has risen in recent decades in Ontario Highest attainment 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 1981 1991 2001 20% 10% 0% High school or less Post Secondary University Source: Statistics Canada, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.
Lowest median income districts are found in rural areas and some city centres highest median income districts are on the CMA fringe Median income Blue=top 20 Red=bottom 20 Etobicoke-North York-West York-South Davenport Golden Horseshoe Scarborough South-West Don Valley West St. Pauls Hamilton East & West Essex Lanark-Carleton Nepean-Carleton Carleton-Gloucester Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.
Inequality has risen due to an increase in income at the top and no change at the bottom The income gap between higher and lower income families has risen since 1994. In 1994, the top 10% of Ontario families earned 6.8 times that of the bottom 10% of families. By 2004 this was 9.4 times. Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Consumer Finances,1994, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, 2004.
Low income is concentrated among recent immigrants, Aboriginal peoples, lone parents and older unattached people incidence of low income (%), before tax, 2001 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Recent immigrants Aboriginal People Lone parents Unattached women age 45-64 Unattached men age 45-64 All Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.
Voter turnout in 2003 was higher in rural districts, districts with an older population, districts with higher income, and districts with fewer recent immigrants Voter turnout, 2003 60% or more 55 to 60% Less than 55%
In the literature on voter turnout, several socio-economic factors are commonly associated with turnout rates Factors which were significantly correlated with 2003 election turnout included: Education Age Employment status Income Rural
Older residents had a higher proportion of provincial voting, while there was no difference between men and women % 100.0 % of eligible voters who reported to have voted in the provincial election prior to 2002 84.4 90.4 % 100.0 % of eligible Ontario voters who reported to have voted in the provincial election prior to 2002 75.0 70.5 75.0 73.8 76.6 50.0 36.6 50.0 25.0 25.0 0.0 18-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65 years and older 0.0 Male Female Source: Statistics Canada, Ethnic Diversity Survey, 2002.
Recent immigrants have lowest voting rates % 100.0 75.0 % of eligible immigrants who reported that they voted in the provincial election prior to 2002, Ontario 83.6 66.4 75.2% of eligible Ontario voters voted in the previous provincial election 50.0 44.0 25.0 0.0 Before 1981 1981 to 1990 1991 to 1998 Source: Statistics Canada, Ethnic Diversity Survey, 2002. Period of immigration
Slides in reserve
Proportions of youth are higher in northern and southwestern Ontario Algoma Sudbury Nipissing Manitoulin Parry Sound Prescott and Russell Renfrew O Ottawa-Gatineau a-g atineau O Ottawa a Bruce Huron Grey Dufferin D W ellington Simcoe Peel Muskoka York Kawartha Lakes Toronto Haliburton Toronto Oshawa Durham Peterborough Hastings Northumberland Frontenac Prince Edward Lanark Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Leeds and Grenville Lennox and Addington Windsor Essex Lambton Chatham- Kent Perth Middlesex London Elgin Waterloo Halton Kitchener H Hamilton H Hamilton Brant Niagara Oxford H Haldimand- and- Norfolk Proportion of population aged 18-24, 2006 (per1,000) (number of CDs) >= 98.4 (16) 93.8 - < 98.4 (17) < 93.8 (16) Ontario Median Proportion= 96.0 per 1,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.
Proportion of seniors is higher in rural areas North excepted Algoma Sudbury Nipissing Manitoulin Parry Sound Prescott and Russell Renfrew O Ottawa-Gatineau a-g atineau O Ottawa a Bruce Huron Grey Dufferin D W ellington Simcoe Peel Muskoka York Kawartha Lakes Toronto Haliburton Toronto Oshawa Durham Peterborough Hastings Northumberland Frontenac Prince Edward Lanark Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Leeds and Grenville Lennox and Addington Windsor Lambton Chatham- Kent Perth Middlesex London Elgin Waterloo Halton Kitchener H Hamilton H Hamilton Brant Niagara Oxford H Haldimand- and- Norfolk Essex Proportion of population aged 65+, 2006 (per 1,000) (number of CDs) >= 164.8 (16) 136.0 - < 164.8 (17) < 136.0 (16) Ontario Median Proportion= 151.8 per 1,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.