US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) July 9, Dr. Edward Yardeni -97-78 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 8-- djohnson@ Mali Quintana 8-- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents GDP Levels: Nominal & Real GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real GDP ex-government GDP & GNP GDP Components 7 Equipment & Intellectual Property 8 Real US Consumer Spending 9 Real Capital Spending - Real Inventories Real Trade Exports & Imports - Real Government Contributions to GDP Growth 7-9 Ratios July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
. 8..... 8. Figure. NOMINAL GDP (trillions dollars, saar, ratio scale) GDP Levels: Nominal & Real. 8..... 8........ 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8. 9. 7.. Figure. REAL GDP (trillion 9 dollars, saar, ratio scale) 9. 7...... 9. 9. 7. 7...... 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8. Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real US NOMINAL GDP - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. REAL GDP GROWTH & % "STALL SPEED" Total (.) - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
GDP ex-government 7. Figure. REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING (trillion 9 dollars, saar) 7.... Real GDP.. Real GDP excluding Total Government Spending. 7. 7...... 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8. Figure. REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING - - - - - - - - - -7-8 Real GDP (.) Real GDP excluding Total Government Spending (.) 9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. - - - -7-8 Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
GDP & GNP Figure 7. REAL GDP & FINAL SALES - - - - Real GDP (.) Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers (.) - - - - 9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. - - Figure 8. REAL GDP Real GDP (.) Real GNP (.) - - - - - - - - - 9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. - Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
9 8 7 Figure 9. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (billion 9 dollars, saar) Total 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 GDP Components PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT Equipment Intellectual Property Products 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 7 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT: STRUCTURES Total Goods Total Structures 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 8 7 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Services TRADE Exports Imports 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT SPENDING 8 8 Federal State & Local 9 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Page 7 / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Equipment & Intellectual Property Figure. PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (billion 9 dollars, saar) 8 7 Information Processing & Equipment Intellectural Property Products 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 7 Industrial Equipment Software 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Transportation Equipment Research & Development 7 7 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 7 9 8 9 7 7 9 Other Equipment 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Entertainment, Literary & Artistic Originals 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Page 8 / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
7 Figure. Real US Consumer Spending PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN REAL GDP Total 7 - - - - - - - - - - May 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 May Durables Nondurables 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 Services May 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 - - - - - - - - - - Page 9 / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. Real Capital Spending PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP - - - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Equipment Structures Intellectual Property Products - - - 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 - Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. Real Capital Spending NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Intellectual Property Products: Software Research & Development Entertainment, Literary & Artistic Origins - 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 - Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
- - - 8 - - - - - - - - - - Figure. INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP (billion 9 dollars, saar) 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 MANUFACTURING 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 WHOLESALE 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 RETAIL EX AUTOS 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 RETAIL AUTOS 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 Real Inventories - - - 8 - - - - - - - - - - Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. Real Trade NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar) - - - - - - - - - - - - -7-7 -8-9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7-8 -9 Figure 7. EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP Exports Imports - - - 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 - Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
8 Figure 8. Exports & Imports US: EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billions of 9 dollars, saar) 8 Imports Exports 8 8 8 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8 Figure 9. TRADE DEFICIT (billion dollars, saar) - - - - - Total - -8 Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil Jun -8-9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. - Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
8 7 Figure. EXPORTS (billion dollars, saar) Exports & Imports 8 7 Jun 9 8 7 Total Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 9 8 7 9 8 7 9 8 7 Figure. IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) Total Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Jun 9 8 7 9 8 7 Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN REAL GDP Real Government Total (.9) - 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING - Federal (.7) - 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING - State & Local (.) - 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Contributions to GDP Growth Figure. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.8) - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Durable Goods (.) - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Nondurable Goods (.9) - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Services (.) - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. - Page 7 / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. Contributions to GDP Growth REAL RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (contribution to real GDP change) Total (-.) - - - - - - - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Nonresidential Investment (-.) - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Structures (-.) - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Equipment & Software (-.) - - - 8 - -8 - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Change In Nonfarm Inventories (-.) 8 - -8 Page 8 / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
8 - - Figure. Contributions to GDP Growth NET EXPORT OF GOODS & SERVICES (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8-8 - Exports of Goods & Services (.) - - - 7 - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Imports of Goods & Services (.) 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8-7 - - Federal Government Spending (.) - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - State & Local Government Spending (-.) - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 9 / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
7 Figure. Ratios NOMINAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (as a percent of nominal GDP) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 8 Figure 7. REVENUES & EXPENDITURES 8 Federal Revenues (as a percent of nominal GDP) Federal Expenditures (as a percent of nominal GDP) 8 Q 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Page / July 9, / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
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