U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060

U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060 Jennifer M. Ortman Population Division Presentation for the FFC/GW Brown Bag Seminar Series on Forecasting Washington, DC February 7, 2013

2012 National Projections First series based on the 2010 Census Projections of the U.S. population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin Covers the period from 2012 to 2060 2

Overview Methodology and assumptions Mortality Fertility Net International Migration Highlights from the results 3

Making Population Projections Starting Population Births and Immigrants Deaths and Emigrants Future Population 4

Mortality Projections One series of mortality projections Three race and Hispanic origin groups Non-Hispanic White and Asian or Pacific Islander (API) Non-Hispanic Black and American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN) Hispanic Note: The superseded Asian and Pacific Islander combined category is used due to the lack of historical data for the current categories of: (1) Asian and (2) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. 5

Mortality Projection Methodology Life expectancy at birth is projected for each group to 2060 Hispanic life expectancy is projected to converge to the rate projected for the non- Hispanic White and API population in 2035 Use Coale-Demeny West model life table to convert life expectancy projections to age-specific mortality rates 6

Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1989 to 2060 90 Male Non Hispanic White and API Female Non Hispanic White and API Male Non Hispanic Black and AIAN Female Non Hispanic Black and AIAN Male Hispanic Female Hispanic 85 80 75 70 65 Non Non Hispanic Hispanic White Black and and API AIAN 60 1989 1999 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049 2059 Male Life Expectancy at Birth Female Non Non Hispanic Hispanic White Black and and API AIAN Year Hispanic Hispanic 2009 76.72 71.12 78.80 81.40 77.52 83.68 2060 83.21 80.37 83.21 87.18 84.72 87.18 7

Fertility Projections One series of fertility projections Rates for women aged 10 to 54 years Five race and Hispanic origin groups Non-Hispanic White Black American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN) Asian or Pacific Islander (API) Hispanic 8

Fertility Projection Methodology Average the age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) of non-hispanic White females for 1989-2009 Assume the ASFRs of all five groups will converge to the average of the ASFRs for the non-hispanic White group in 2100 9

Total Fertility Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1989 to 2060 3.5 Total Non Hispanic White Non Hispanic Black Non Hispanic AIAN Non Hispanic API Hispanic 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Total Fertility Rate Non Non Non Non Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Year Total White Black AIAN API Hispanic 2009 2.00 1.83 2.03 2.24 1.72 2.55 2060 1.91 1.83 1.92 2.01 1.78 2.15 0 1989 1999 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049 2059 10

Net International Migration Projections Foreign-born immigration (+) Foreign-born emigration (-) Net native-born migration (+) 11

Foreign-Born Immigration Projections Projected as a rate of emigration from sending countries Rates calculated for years 1980-2010 Emigration Rate = Immigrants to United States Sending Country Population Rates are projected to move toward an ultimate rate 12

Projected Rates of Emigration from Sending Countries to the United States: 2012 to 2060 (Migrants per 1,000 population) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Total Non Spanish Caribbean and Sub Saharan Africa Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East Spanish Caribbean and Latin America Asia and Pacific Islands 0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 13

Calculating Projected Foreign-Born Immigrants Projected immigrants to the United States were calculated for each year by multiplying the projected emigration rate from sending countries by the projected population within each region. Projected U.S. Immigrants = Projected Emigration * Rate Projected Sending Population 14

Foreign-Born Emigration Projections Rates of emigration from the United States are estimated using a residual method and data from Census 2000 and the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) The rates were produced and applied by age, sex, Hispanic origin, and arrival cohort Immigrants who arrived in the past 0-9 years Immigrants who arrived in the past 10-19 years Immigrants who arrived 20 or more years ago 15

Calculating Projected Foreign-Born Emigrants Foreign-born emigration from the United States was projected by applying the emigration rates to the foreign-born population The same set of rates, by age, sex, Hispanic origin, and arrival cohort, were used for all projected years 16

Net Native-Born Migration Projections Comprised of migration of the native-born population, including migration from Puerto Rico to the United States Current estimates of net native-born migration are held constant in the projected years 17

Net International Migration: 2012 to 2060 (In thousands) 1,140 1,174 1,204 1,215 909 725 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 18

Net International Migrants by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and 2060 (Percent of total net international migrants) 2012 2060 40.0 40.7 33.2 24.1 15.7 15.6 18.6 10.1 1.0 1.0 Non Hispanic White Non Hispanic Black Non Hispanic Asian Non Hispanic Other Races Hispanic Other races includes American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and Two or More Races. 19

Main Findings The U.S. population is projected to: Grow more slowly Continue aging Become more diverse 20

United States Population: 1990 to 2060 Numbers (in millions) 600 500 The population is projected to increase from 314 million in 2012 to 420 million in 2060, reaching 400 million in 2051. 400 420 400 300 250 282 309 200 100 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Red columns represent population estimates for 1990 2011. 21

Annual Percent Change in Total Population: 2012 to 2060 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.84 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.50 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 22

Births, Deaths, and Net International Migration: 2012 and 2060 (Numbers in thousands) 2012 2060 4,930 4,210 4,039 2,522 725 1,215 Births Deaths Net International Migration 23

Natural Increase (Births Deaths) and Net International Migration: 2012 to 2060 Numbers (in thousands) 1,800 Natural Increase Net International Migration 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 Net international migration is projected to overtake natural increase as the primary driver of population growth in 2032. 200 0 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 24

Population by Age and Sex: 2012 Age (years) 100+ 95 Males Females 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 Baby Boomers 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 Population (in millions) 25

Population by Age and Sex: 2035 Age (years) 100+ 95 Males Females 90 85 80 75 Baby Boomers 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 Population (in millions) 26

Population by Age and Sex: 2060 Age (years) 100+ 95 Males Females 90 85 80 Baby Boomers 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 Population (in millions) 27

Population by Age and Sex: 2012 and 2060 Age (years) 100+ 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Males 2012 2060 2012 Population = 314 Million 2060 Population = 420 Million Females 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 Population (in millions) 28

Population Under 18 Years and 65 Years and Over: 1990 to 2060 Population (in millions) 100 Under 18 years 65 years and over 90 80 70 60 50 The population 65 years and over is projected to become larger than the population under 18 years in 2056. 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Dashed lines represent population estimates for 1990 2011. 29

Distribution of Population by Age: 2012 and 2060 (Percent of total population) 2012 2060 63 57 24 21 22 14 Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over 30

Dependency Ratios for the United States: 1990 to 2060 Youth Dependency Old Age Dependency 75 75 74 76 62 61 20 20 59 21 66 28 35 37 36 39 42 41 38 38 39 38 37 37 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Total dependency = ((Population under age 18 + Population aged 65 years and over) / (Population aged 18 to 64 years)) * 100. Old age dependency = (Population aged 65 years and over / Population aged 18 to 64 years) * 100. Youth dependency = (Population under age 18 / Population aged 18 to 64 years) * 100. 31

Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and 2060 (Percent of total population) 78 2012 2060 69 63 43 31 13 15 1.2 1.5 5.1 8.2 0.2 0.3 2.4 6.4 17 White alone Black alone AIAN alone Asian alone NHPI alone Two or More Races AIAN=American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Non Hispanic White Alone Hispanic (of any race) 32

Projections of the Percent Minority: 2012 to 2060 Percent of total population 100 Total population Population under 18 years 90 80 70 60 The minority population is projected to become the numerical majority of the population under 18 years in 2018. 50 40 30 20 10 The minority population is projected to become the numerical majority of the total population in 2043. 0 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 33

Median Age by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and 2060 2012 2060 47 37 41 42 39 32 39 38 29 35 42 29 38 25 42 27 34 19 Total White alone Black alone AIAN alone Asian alone NHPI alone Two or More Races Non Hispanic White alone Hispanic (of any race) AIAN=American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 34

More Information Census Bureau Projections Website: http://www.census.gov/population/projections Contact Information: Jennifer Ortman Jennifer.M.Ortman@census.gov 301-763-2428 35