Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX July, 16 Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-536 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Germany s DAX Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Earnings Growth & Valuation 4 July, 16 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
Stock Price Index 14 Figure 1. DAX INDEX* 14 7/ 8 8 6 6 4 4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 -day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. 14 Figure 2. DAX INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION 14 DAX Index 7//16 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 7/7/16 x14 8 x 8 6 6 x6 4 4 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / July, 16 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
Earnings 85 Figure 3. DAX INDEX OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 16 17 85 7 7 55 55 4 4 25 25 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 5, weekly thereafter. Figure 4. DAX INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* Jun - - - - -3-4 NERI Apr -13.8 May -9.1 Jun -4. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17-3 -4 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Page 2 / July, 16 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
17 Figure 5. DAX INDEX REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins 16 17 17 13 13 1 1 9 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 9 7 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 7 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 5, weekly thereafter. 8. 7.5 Figure 6. DAX INDEX PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 8. 7.5 7. 7. 6.5 6.5 6. 5.5 16 17 6. 5.5 5. 5. 4.5 4. Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (5.4) 4.5 4. 3.5 3.5 3. 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 3. * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 5, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / July, 16 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
8 7 6 Figure 7. DAX INDEX LTEG VS STEG (percent) Earnings Growth & Valuation LTEG* (7.2) STEG* (6.5) 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3-1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 - * STEG: 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected growth. LTEG: 5-year consensus expected growth. Monthly data through 5, weekly thereafter. 35 3 25 Figure 8. DAX INDEX VALUATION Forward P/E* (11.4) 35 3 25 5 3. 2.5 2. Relative P/E** (.8) PEG Ratio*** (1.6) 5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1.5 1..5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 1..5 * Price divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 5, weekly thereafter. ** Forward P/E relative to MSCI World forward P/E. *** Forward P/E relative to consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Page 4 / July, 16 / Global Index Briefing: Germany s DAX www.
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