Daily Bulletin Jan 5, 2011 www.trimegah.com REGIONAL WRAP IDX 3,760.1 Change : 0.87% Transaction Volume (m) : 6,111.1 Transaction Value (Rpbn) : 7,009.7 Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 3,305.1 Market P/E (x) : 15.1 Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.1 Global Indices Chg (%) Dow Jones 11,691.2 20.4 0.2 Nasdaq 2,681.3-10.3-0.4 Nikkei 10,398.1 169.2 1.7 ST Times 3,250.3 14.5 0.4 FTSE 6,013.9 113.9 1.9 Hang Seng 23,668.5 232.4 1.0 Dual Listing (NYSE) Chg (%) ISAT 30.5 5,479.6 0.9 3.2 TLKM 35.5 7,970.2-0.5-1.4 Commodity Price Chg (%) Crude OIL (NYMEX) 89.4-2.2-2.4 Gold (LME Spot) 1,378.8-44.1-3.1 Nickel (LME 3M) 25,155 405 1.6 Tins (LME 3M) 26,345-555 -2.1 CPO (Rotterdam CIF) 1,310-2.5-0.2 Rubber (Tokyo 1M) 5,095.1 139.1 2.8 Coal (Weekly 31/12) 128.5 0.0 0.0 Market Movers Chg (%) EXCL 5,650 400 7.6 ADRO 2,875 200 7.5 BUMI 3,250 125 4.0 UNTR 25,250 950 3.9 BMRI 6,600 150 2.3 TLKM 7,900-100 -1.3 PGAS 4,400-75 -1.7 BNII 750-20 -2.6 ASII 52,500-1,900-3.5 BNGA 1,660-90 -5.1 Exchange Rate BI Rate - 6.50% US$ - IDR 8,983.00 Yen - IDR 109.50 SGD - IDR 6,979.80 EUR - IDR 11,954.58 Regional was mixed. US (S&P500) is down 0.1% and EU (SX5E 50) is up 0.2 % and 1.7% respectively, as US and EU manufacturing bolstered speculation that economic recovery will strengthen. Commodities (CRB Index) are down -1.6%, led by gold (- 3.1%) and crude oil (-2.3%). Asian markets are mixed, with JP (Nikkei 225) up 0.2% while AU (ASX 200) is down 0.3% at the point of writing. Strong USD pushed the USD higher up, sending risk assets such as stocks and commodities down. However, US markets recover earlier losses of 1.1% in mid-day to close 0.1% as FED minutes released last night show that policy makers said that improvements in the economy didn't meet the threshold for scaling back their plans to purchase USD600bn in bonds. FED will continue to focus on inflation rate of 2%, and unemployment rate of 9.4% targets. Right now, inflation is at 1.1% and unemployment is at 9.8%. TRIM NOTES Bank: Macro Prudential Effort Coal: How High Can Coal Price Go?? NEWS HEADLINES Market: Garuda Aims USD500mn from IPO Economy: BI May Continue to Hold Rate Albeit Inflation Threat Bank: BBNI and BMRI KUR Reach Rp6.8tr Bank: 6Months Relocation Period Financial: Insurance Allowed to Invest in ABS Financial: Banking Fund Growth Overtake Credits Growth Heavy Equipment: Domestic Production Grew By 161% in 2010 Plantation: CPO Output May Hit 23mn Tons in 2011 Property: Low Realization on Liquidity Facility AKRA: FY11 Net Profit Will Jump Because of an Extraordinary Gain BMRI: Auction Benua Indah Group Asset DILD: Capex Announcement JPFA: Postmerger, JAPFA Assets Reach Rp8.4tr TRAM: Received USD140mn of New Contracts LSIP: Stock Split Plan Corporate Action APEX EGM 5-Jan-11 APIC EGM 7-Jan-11 Megapolitan D (IPO) 12-Jan-11 MBTO Martina Berto (IPO) 13-Jan-11 VOKS EGM 17-Jan-11 Daily Bulletin, Jan 5, 2011 Research Division Tel (62-21) 515 2727 research@trimegah.com 1 Trimegah Research is also available electronically on : FirstCall.com, Reuters Knowledge for Investment Management website and securities.com
TRADE DATA JCI (IHSG) 3,760.1 32.5 0.87% YTD (Rp) 1.53% Volume (m) : 6,111.1 YTD (USD) 1.47% Nilai (Rpbn) : 7,009.7 Moving Avg 20day 3,676.5 Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 3,305.1 Moving Avg 50day 3,666.2 Market P/E (x) : 15.1 Moving Avg 200day 3,174.2 Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.1 Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%) YTD (%) MSCI Indonesia JII LQ45 JAKFIN Index JAKINFR Index JAKMINE Index JAKCONS Index JAKTRAD Index JAKMIND Index JAKBIND Index JAKPROP Index JAKAGRI Index 4,612.6 26.1 0.57 1.45 538.3 0.6 0.11 1.01 673.0 5.1 0.76 1.76 461.1 0.3 0.00-1.20 829.6 3.1 0.00 1.27 3,543.8 137.0 0.04 8.24 1,103.8 7.8 0.01 0.83 482.4 5.6 0.01 1.75 937.1-27.4-0.03-3.09 396.7 5.8 0.01 2.44 204.7 0.8 0.00 0.81 2,358.2 37.6 0.02 3.23 Commodities +/- (%) YTD (%) CRB Index 327.7-2.2-2.37-2.19 Oil & Gas Crude Oil 89.4-2.2-2.37-2.19 Natural Gas 4.7 0.0 0.41 5.99 COAL (Rotterdam) 127.4-4.1-3.08-3.08 COAL (Amsterdam) 129.0 3.1 2.42 2.42 COAL (Australia,wk) 126.1 3.7 3.02 3.02 Industrial Metals Alumunium 2,476.5 17.3 0.70 0.70 Nickel 25,155 405 1.64 1.64 Tin 26,345-555 -2.06-2.06 Prescious Metal Gold 1,378.8-44.1-3.10-3.00 Silver 29.5-1.6-5.20-4.54 Soft Commodities CPO (Malaysia) 3,913.0 40.0 1.03 2.60 CPO (Netherland) 1,310.0-2.5-0.19 1.95 Rubber 5,095.1 139.1 2.81 2.03 Corn 608.5-12.0-1.93-3.26 Wheat 789.3-16.3-2.02-0.63 Soybeans 1,369.5-9.5-0.69-1.74 Rice (Indonesia) 7,100.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 Regional Indices +/- (%) YTD (%) MXWO MSCI Word 1,289.3 1.3 0.10 0.72 SPX S&P 500 1,270.2-1.7-0.13 1.00 US Dow Jones Industrial 11,691.2 20.4 0.18 0.98 Nasdaq US 2,681.3-10.3-0.38 1.07 Europe EURO 50 Europe 2,844.2 4.7 0.17 1.84 FTSE London 6,013.9 113.9 1.93 1.93 DAX Jerman 6,975.4-14.4-0.21 0.88 CAC France 3,916.0 15.2 0.39 2.92 SMI Swiss 6,494.3 0.4 0.01 0.91 BRIC BOVESPA Brazil 70,317.8 355.5 0.51 1.46 MICEX Russia 1,688.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 SENSEX India 20,498.7-62.3-0.30-0.05 NIFTY India 6,146.4-11.3-0.18 0.19 SHCOMP China 2,852.6 44.6 1.59 1.59 SZCOMP China 1,311.3 20.5 1.59 1.59 Developed ASIA Nikkei Japan 10,398.1 169.2 1.65 1.65 TPX Japan 911.8 13.0 1.45 1.45 HIS Hong kong 23,668.5 232.4 0.99 2.75 KOSPI S.Korea 2,085.1 15.1 0.73 1.66 TAIEX Taiwan 8,997.2-28.1-0.31 0.28 FSSTI Singapore 3,250.3 14.5 0.45 1.89 ASEAN SET Thailand 1,042.4 9.7 0.93 0.93 PCOMP Philipines 4,218.7 3.5 0.08 0.42 KLCI Malaysia 1,551.9 18.5 1.20 2.17 VNINDEX Vietnam 486.0 1.3 0.27 0.27 Currency +/- (%) YTD (%) EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDJPY USDCNY USDHKD USDSGD Rupiah Euro 1.331-0.005-0.40-0.57 United Kingdom 1.559 0.010 0.63-0.16 Switzerland 0.949 0.015 1.63 1.43 Canada 0.998 0.004 0.45 0.03 Australia 1.005-0.012-1.15-1.78 New Zealand 0.767-0.007-0.88-1.74 Japan 82.0 0.300 0.37 1.13 China 6.610 0.003 0.05 0.05 Hongkong 7.769-0.002-0.02-0.05 Singapore 1.287 0.002 0.17 0.28 Indonesia 8,983-12.000-0.13-0.14 Winners Lossers Value (Rpbn) Stock Price (%) Stock Price (%) BRAU 570 11.76 BORN 1,670 9.15 EXCL 5,650 7.62 ADRO 2,875 7.48 ITMG 56,500 4.05 BUMI 3,250 4.00 PTBA 24,900 3.97 UNTR 25,250 3.91 INTP 16,600 3.43 BMRI 6,600 2.33 MAYA 1,110-15.27 MEGA 2,925-7.87 BNGA 1,660-5.14 ASII 52,500-3.49 BNII 750-2.60 PGAS 4,400-1.68 AALI 26,450-1.31 TLKM 7,900-1.25 INCO 4,925-1.01 BBRI 10,300-0.48 BUMI 895,735 ASII 356,200 BBRI 288,204 KRAS 284,030 ADRO 266,616 BORN 233,703 ICBP 192,006 BRAU 180,888 BMRI 176,656 ANTM 170,375 Volume (Lot) BNBR 1,481,500 ENRG 1,233,677 BRAU 663,232 ELTY 583,562 BUMI 558,335 KRAS 455,712 LPKR 327,637 BORN 281,884 BHIT 219,848 TRUB 206,406 Freq (x) KRAS 10,119 BUMI 6,030 BORN 4,302 BNBR 3,576 BRAU 3,473 ENRG 3,423 ANTM 3,327 ASII 3,270 ADRO 2,985 INDF 2,599 Daily Bulletin, Jan 5, 2011 2
NEWS Market: Garuda Aims USD500mn from IPO Garuda Indonesia will sell 36.5% ownership through IPO and aim USD500mn fresh funds. On 2010,Garuda booked Rp20tr sales with Rp459bn profits. Garuda targeted 14.8% growth on passenger business and 12.2% on cargo. Source: Bisnis Indonesia Economy: BI May Continue to Hold Rate Albeit Inflation Threat Indonesia's central bank expected to keep interest rates a t a record low at its first meeting in 2011. A rate increase would risk luring more capital as restrain growth in developed market will push funds to seek better returns in emerging markets. BI will give the decision tomorrow. Source: The Jakarta Posts Bank: BBNI and BMRI KUR Reach Rp6.8tr On Dec' 2010, BBNI and BMRI has provide a total of Rp6.8tr of KUR. BBNI has provided Rp2.1tr of new KUR, while BMRI provide Rp1.6tr. Source: Investor Daily Bank: 6Months Relocation Period Bank Indonesia gives 6months grace period for regional development banks that failed to fulfill minimum capital requirement. There are 10 out of 285 rural banks that received such sanctions. Bank Indonesia give Rp2-5bn capital threshold on rural banks depends on their location. Source: Investor Daily Financial: Insurance Allowed to Invest in ABS BAPEPAM-LK plans to allow insurance companies to invest in ABS (Asset Backed Securities). Regulators allow insurance companies to invest 20% of asset with 10% threshold on each investment managers. Source: Bisnis Indonesia Financial: Banking Fund Growth Overtake Credits Growth Third parties funds grew Rp541tr or 31.1% compare to previous year becoming Rp 2.281tr almost overtaking credit growth which grew by 23.8%. As a results of stronger third parties fund growth, LDR decrease from 76.8% to 76.4%. Source Bisnis Indonesia Heavy Equipment: Domestic Production Grew By 161% in 2010 Rough calculation done by association expects domestic production in 2010 reached 4,700 units, thanks to the high demand of heavy equipment from mining and agriculture sector. Association also optimistic this year the number will higher. Source: Bisnis Indonesia Plantation: CPO Output May Hit 23mn Tons in 2011 Association expects our national production will grow 9.5% YoY in 2011, however it still depends on conducive weather patterns. In addition to the weather factor, decreasing productivity of older plantations could also become a risk to meet the production target. Source: The Jakarta Posts Property: Low Realization on Liquidity Facility On Oct' 2010, Liquidity Facility only finance 4 low cost apartments and 18.935 units landed housing. Low realization was mainly due to high requirement and lack of infrastructure in providing Liquidity Facility. Source: Investor Daily Daily Bulletin, Jan 5, 2011 3
NEWS AKRA: FY11 Net Profit Will Jump Because of an Extraordinary Gain AKRA will book Rp1.65tr of extraordinary gain in FY11 financial statement as a result of selling 68.8% stake in SOBI to Cargill several times ago. Despite an extraordinary gains, management also optimistic its operational revenue itself will grow by 2 digits. Company will prefer its focus on energy distribution business. Source: Investor Daily BMRI: Auction Benua Indah Group Asset BMRI will sell Benua Indah Group (BIG) asset through auction. BIG required to pay Rp248bn to BMRI by Supreme Court, or lower than Rp480bn proposed by BMRI. Source: Investor Daily DILD: Capex Announcement Company will allocate Rp700bn to finance its 2011 capex. Rp400bn will be disbursed to its Super Block project named West One City in West Jakarta. DILD cooperates with Mahkota Kemayoran Realty to develop this 22ha super block with 40% of ownership. Source: Investor Daily JPFA: Postmerger, JAPFA Assets Reach Rp8.4tr Merger of Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA) with PT Multiphala Agrinusa and PT Bintang Terang Gemilang two JPFA subsidiaries will result in Rp8.4tr assets. JPFA will control Rp6.8tr of assets. Source: Bisnis Indonesia LSIP: Stock Split Plan Management will put a stock split issue to be discussed in EGM, 28th Jan'11. Stock split expected to increase liquidity in stock market after previously, Indo Agri Resources already release 8.0% to investors for increasing LSIP free float and tax benefit. Source: Investor Daily TRAM: Received USD140mn of New Contracts It consists of 7 contracts with 4 of it were international shipping contracts. The company will allocate USD140mn for 2011 capex, increased 55% YoY, will be used to buy 7 vessels. Source: Investor Daily Daily Bulletin, Jan 5, 2011 4
TRIM Notes - Bank: Macro Prudential Effort Bank: Macro Prudential Effort On 'December 2010 Regulation Package', Bank Indonesia releases new regulation in connection to macro prudential policy. Below are the details: 1. Restriction on foreign exchange loans balance Banks are required to limit the balance of short-term foreign loans to a maximum of 30% of bank capital. Bank Indonesia impose the rules to restrict banks' exposure to short term foreign exchange loans and make sure the capital is enough to face liquidity shock. 2. Deprivation of Foreign Exchange Supply for Domestic Corporations Act Bank Indonesia release Foreign Exchange Supply for Domestic Corporations Act on 2008 to face liquidity shock caused by sub-prime mortgage crisis. This regulation essentially allowed banks to ask Bank Indonesia to fulfill its needs on foreign exchange, as long as the needs proved by real economic activity in Indonesia. This is special regulation in crisis period and its deprivation should not surprise bankers. 3. Increasing Reserve Requirement on foreign exchange loans Bank Indonesia increase foreign exchange reserve requirement from current level of 1% to 5% on Mar' 2011 and 8% on Jun' 2011. This new regulation expected to drain USD2.5bn liquidity out of banking system. The most severely affected banks is BMRI, with 8% foreign exchange loans to total asset ratio, highest is five biggest banks. 4. Normalization of Bank Indonesia discount window Economic crisis which usually followed by inter-bank borrowing market dried up might caused panic and asset fire sales to fulfill short term liquidity needs. Bank Indonesia discount window was open to reduce such panic and fire sales risks. However, in normal time, such policy monetary loose policy is not needed. 5. Regulation and usage on bank business plan Bank Indonesia imposes rules that required banks to submit their business plan a year ahead. The business plan should include financial projection, financing, investment, and capital raising plan, human resource development plan, new product launching, and branch expansion. Banks restricted to change its business plan, unless adverse economic condition or bank specific issues happen. Those five policies aim to increase Indonesian banks resiliency in case of foreign capital outflow by limiting exposure to foreign exchange loans and higher reserve requirement. Meanwhile, deprivation of Foreign Exchange Supply for Domestic Corporations and Bank Indonesia's discount window should be viewed as a normal course of action due to stable economic condition. Daily Bulletin, Jan 5, 2011 5
TRIM Notes - Coal: How High Can Coal Price Go?? Coal: How High Can Coal Price Go?? Just a reminder, there was a major flood back in Jan'08 in Queensland. At that time, it was labeled "the worst flood in 20 years". Then, McCloskey Newcastle coal price index instantaneously surged 56% in six weeks, starting the new years from USD91/ton on 4th Jan'08 to USD142/ton on 15th Feb'08. Current flooding in Australia is estimated to be the "worst flooding in 50 years", much more severe than 3 years ago, as was indicated by record high water level in the Nogoa River and Dawson River. In Dawson River for example, water level is already at 10.3m (29th Dec'10) - 1.0m higher than the 1956 record of 9.3m. McCloskey Newcastle Coal Price Index Movement 250 CLSPAUNE Index 200 150 Worst Flood in 20yrs Worst Flood in 50yrs USD/ton 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 The good news for coal owners now is that Australian Bureau of Meteorology still predicts more rain to come, as rate of precipitation is expected to reach 1.5-2.0 cm/hour (heavy rain) in the next following days. Queensland Resources Council CEO, Michael Roche, told reporters in Brisbane that mining disruptions could continue for months, and that coal stockpiles at the export harbor of Gladstone, Queensland is "very low" and that most inventory are for 2010 delivery. We are comfortable expecting coal price to test USD142/ton during this flooding crisis, and maybe even go higher due to the severity in flooding and inventory levels. OVERWEIGHT Coal! Queensland Rate of Precipitation 3.0 Actual Forecasted 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2-Dec-10 9-Dec-10 16-Dec-10 23-Dec-10 30-Dec-10 6-Jan-11 13-Jan-11 2011 Precipitation (cm) Daily Bulletin, Jan 5, 2011 6
RESEARCH TEAM Andrian Tanuwijaya Equity Analyst (andrian.tanuwijaya@trimegah.com) Mohammad Ayodhia Sinaga Technical Analyst (mohammad.ayodhia@trimegah.com) Hanel Topada Era Tania Equity Analyst (hanel.tania@trimegah.com) Rovandi Research Assistant (rovandi@trimegah.com) EQUITY CAPITAL MARKET TEAM Henry F. Jusuf Head of Equities (henry@trimegah.com) Dedy Efian Ferry Zabur Ariawan Anwar Pluit, Jakarta Kelapa Gading, Jakarta Artha Graha, Jakarta (dedy.efian@trimegah.com) (ferry.zabur@trimegah.com) (ariawan.anwar@trimegah.com) Yuliawaty Wirjawan Joesoef Tutik Suciati Mangga Dua, Jakarta Kebon Jeruk, Jakarta Semarang, Jawa Tengah (yuliawaty@trimegah.com) (iwan@trimegah.com) (tuty.s@trimegah.com) Nathanael Benny Prasetyo Tantie Rivi Watie Ni luh Ketut Sri Agustini Surabaya, Jawa Timur Medan, Sumatera Utara Denpasar, Bali (benny.prasetyo@trimegah.com) (tantierw@trimegah.com) (sri.agustini@trimegah.com) Philip Fernando Suwandi Donny Kristanto Setiadi Asep Saepudin Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan Malang, Jawa Timur Bandung, Jawa Barat (philip.fs@trimegah.com) (donny.kristanto@trimegah.com) (asep.saepudin@trimegah.com) Windra Djulnaily Tantie Rivi Watie Edwin Jayandaru Palembang, Sumatra Selatan Pekanbaru, Riau Solo, Jawa Tengah (windra.djulnaily@trimegah.com) (tantierw@trimegah.com) (edwin.jayandaru@trimegah.com) Edwin Jayandaru Yogyakarta, Jawa Tengah (edwin.jayandaru@trimegah.com) Asep Saepudin Cirebon, Jawa Barat (asep.saepudin@trimegah.com) PT Trimegah Securities Tbk 18 th Fl, Artha Graha Building Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53 Jakarta 12190, INDONESIA Tel : (6221) 515 2727 Fax : (6221) 515 4580 DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in future participate in an offering of the company's equity securities. Daily Bulletin, Jan 5, 2011 7