CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

Southeast Asia / Philippines Version Nº: 1 Location (country, region/area): Philippines, Southeast Asia Covering period: From Aug. to Dec. of 2010 Last update Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 1/65

1. BACKGROUND AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Background Reasons for the CP implementation within the Philippines The Philippines is very prone to different kinds of hazards. Located within a very active typhoon belt, an average of 20 typhoons visits the country annually. The country is also within the Pacific Ring of Fire a large series of volcanoes encircling the Pacific Ocean (www.worldatlas.com, 2010). At least five earthquakes occur daily in the Philippines (PHIVOLCS, 2006). The country s geographical and physical characteristics may have significantly contributed to these (DepEd, 2008). For the past few years, several major natural disasters hit the country: the 2004 Quezon and Aurora Provinces landslides and flash floods; the 2006 Southern Leyte Province landslide that buried a whole village; the 2006 series of strong typhoons that hit several provinces and Metro Manila, 2007 Albay Province mudflow from Mayon Volcano; and, the 2009 series of typhoons that flooded a great part of Metro Manila and other provinces. Aside from natural hazards, recurring armed conflict besiege the Philippines. The conflict between the government and rebel group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) led to the displacement of close to 800,000 people (NDCC, 2009) in Regions X, XII and ARMM in Mindanao from 2008 to 2009. Displacements occur from time to time, as sporadic fighting continues to bring restive conditions. Aside from the MILF, the government also continues to intensify its operations against terrorist group Abu Sayyaf and against another rebel group the New People s Army (NPA). Regular occurrence of natural disasters and ongoing armed conflict in the country provides some challenges to many organizations in responding efficiently. Some of these challenges are time constraint, enormous needs, and complex coordination (UNHCR, 2003). Disaster managers often have to make fast decisions within a limited time frame. They often have to make do with limited resources even when the need is great. Moreover, complex coordination processes with other responding organizations seem to slow down the response pace. With these realities, contingency planning for disasters become more important. Contingency planning looks into specific potential events or emerging situations that might threaten society or the environment and establishes arrangements in advance to enable timely, effective and appropriate responses to such events and situations (ACFIN, 2009). It must be noted that many of the constraints during disaster response operations may be avoided by planning ahead before emergencies and critical situations. Through planning, the triggers, procedures and resources may be identified to help ACF immediately and efficiently respond to future and on-going emergencies. Moreover, an internal analysis of ACFIN Philippines mission suggests the need to formulate a contingency plan at the mission level which is integrated with the regional contingency plan (ACFIN, 2009). General and specific objectives of the plan The general objective is to develop a disaster response and contingency plan for ACF to guide it in efficiently responding to emergencies in the Philippines for year 2010. Specifically, the plan intends to: a. provide analysis of the economic, political and demographic profiles of the country that will directly impact on its disaster risk; b. provide country hazard and risk analysis; c. develop disaster scenarios and corresponding response strategy by the Philippines mission; and, Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 2/65

d. develop standard operating procedures for overall management and coordination of ACFIN Philippines mission response to emergencies. Limitations of the plan For practical reasons, this contingency plan prioritizes the number of hazards / risks that will be used for scenario building and the development of response strategy. It is, however, expected that the other hazards / risks will be tackled and included in contingency planning for the coming years. To come up with typhoon risk map, a study made by the Manila Observatory was based upon. Human development index (HDI) was updated to year 2007. The formula Risk = Hazard X Vulnerability X Exposure was used. Exposure was limited to the variable population density. Environment variables such as presence of bodies of water, forest cover and others were not included, as such would be entirely a new study. In many literatures, capacity is included in the risk formula. For the typhoon risk map, however, this was not used. There is no available literature yet that quantifies and qualifies governance and capacity per province. Lessons learned in ACFIN responses to emergencies within and outside the country provide valuable information and insights on how to better conduct activities, projects and programs. Hence, this contingency plan should not be treated as final but as a work in progress. Moreover, changing socioeconomic, environmental and political situation in the country and the onset of climate change may alter needs and response prioritization for ACFIN every year. Thus, there is a need to update the plan regularly. Scope and coverage The contingency plan provides a blueprint for ACFIN response to emergencies throughout the whole country for the year 2010. Hazards and risks are based on demographic, climate and geophysical characteristics of provinces nationwide. The emergency scenarios are based on risks prioritized through likelihood and impact to population in the various regions and provinces. Guided by several criteria agreed upon by the Philippines coordination team, bases and projects staff, the document presents response strategies and implementation plans for three key sectors: nutrition, WASH and food security. 1.2 Institutional policy and framework The impetus for ACFIN s position on disaster risk reduction may be summarized in the following points: 1) disasters affect poverty, hunger and poor health thereby directly threatening the organization s goal; 2) disaster risk reduction is a cross-cutting issue that needs to be integrated into all program strategies; 3) financial partners (such as ECHO. DIPECHO, UN, EU, DFID, SIDA, DANIDA and SDC) recognize, support and implement disaster risk reduction initiatives; and, 4) ACFIN is committed to fulfilling its part in realizing the UN MDGs, the 1994 Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World, 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, the 2005 International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 2015 (ACFIN, 2009). Recognizing the increasing number of people affected by natural disasters and armed conflicts, ACFIN puts a lot of emphasis on improving its disaster risk reduction work. The organization stresses improvement of surveillance techniques, assessment of risks such as those related to climate change and actively seeking to mitigate the effects of the main risks such as those associated with hunger gaps (ACFIN, 2009). Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 3/65

In the Philippines, ACF works with different organizations and networks to contribute to risk reduction. As a member of the Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Cluster, ACF actively participates in its meetings, activities and decision-making processes. The Cluster is co-chaired by both UNICEF and the government s Department of Health (DOH). ACF is also a member of the Philippine International Nongovernment Organizations Network (PINGON) a loose organization of major international NGOs in the Philippines. During emergencies, PINGON helps coordinate responses and actions of the network members especially in information gathering. ACF is also a member of the DIPECHO network of partners. Although though not working directly with it, ACF is also influenced by the policies of the National Disaster Coordination Council (NDCC) which will soon be called the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC). As of now, the NDCC is made up of 17 government agencies which collectively function as the main government coordinating body during emergency responses. Created through Presidential Decree 1566, the NDCC uses a tiered approach in responding to disasters by organizing disaster coordinating councils at the regional, provincial, city, municipal up to the barangay levels (DRRNetPhils, 2009). By virtue of NDCC Circular 5 series of 2007, the country has adopted the UN s cluster approach. The cluster approach involves a strategic response to emergencies through mobilization of agencies and organizations across 11 key areas of activities or sectors (www.ndcc.gov.ph, 2010). These sectors are nutrition, water-sanitation-hygiene, health, emergency shelter, camp coordination and management, protection, early recovery, logistics, food, agriculture and livelihood. This was further increased to formally include education and emergency telecommunications through NDCC Memorandum 4 series of 2008. While leadership in the clusters are usually attributed to government agencies, designated UN agencies and international organizations also co-lead these clusters. In 2008, NDCC provided guidelines in the coordination of the delivery of humanitarian services to disaster victims and internally displaced persons (NDCC Joint Memorandum 18 s, 2008). The guidelines provide for the registration and participation of all agencies, organizations and individuals intending to participate or contribute to the delivery of humanitarian services to disaster victims of IDPs. It also allowed the participation of registered organizations in coordination meetings to be convened by the DSWD. 1.3 Leading process Leading teams Name Position Contact Core CP team Participants Facilitators Arnaldo Arcadio Rita Petralba Consultant DRR Head of Project, ACF +639215754727 1.4 Reference and bibliography ACFIN (2009). Disaster Risk Reduction ACFIN Policy. Department of Education (2008). Disaster Risk Reduction Resource Manual. DepEd: Philippines. OCHA Disaster Response Preparedness Toolkit, Institutional and Legal Frameworks for Disaster Preparedness and Response Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 4/65

PHIVOLCS (2006). Earthquake and Earthquake Hazards. In: www.procurement.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph. 06 April 2010. 3 P.M. UNHCR and NDCC-OCD (2003). Contingency Planning for Emergencies. 2 nd ed. UNHCR Manila: Philippines. http://www.cdp.org.ph/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/drrmbill-primer.pdf www.ndcc.gov.ph NDCC Circular 05 s-2007, NDCC Memorandum 04 s-2008, NDCC Joint Memorandum 18 s-2008, Update Sitrep No. 86 Re IDPs in Mindanao. www.worldatlas.com Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 5/65

2. CONTEXT ANALYSIS Increasing vulnerability Reference: www.observatory.ph Map source: www.wikipedia.com Figure 1. Vulnerability map of the Philippines. Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 6/65

1. GENERAL DATA Capital: Manila Area: 300,000 square kilometers Population size: 88.57 million (2007), 94.01 million (2010 projected) Growth rate: 1.931% (2010 estimate) Geo-political subdivisions: 17 regions (Annex 1. Philippines Administrative Map), 80 provinces, 138 cities, 1,496 municipalities, 42,025 barangays 1 Major languages: Filipino (official; based on Tagalog) and English (official); eight major dialects - Tagalog, Cebuano, Ilocano, Hiligaynon or Ilonggo, Bicol, Waray, Pampango, and Pangasinan Major religions: Roman Catholic 80.9%, Muslim 5%, Evangelical 2.8%, Iglesia ni Kristo 2.3%, Aglipayan 2%, other Christian 4.5%, other 1.8%, unspecified 0.6%, none 0.1% (2000 census) Ethnic groups: Tagalog 28.1%, Cebuano 13.1%, Ilocano 9%, Bisaya/Binisaya 7.6%, Hiligaynon Ilonggo 7.5%, Bikol 6%, Waray 3.4%, other 25.3% (2000 census) HDI ranks: 105 (0.751) in 2009 Life expectancy: 71.6 years (2007) GDP per capita: $ 3,300 (2009 est.) Percentage of Population Living On Less Than $1.25 Per Day: 22.6 % (2006) Families without Sustainable Access to an Improved Drinking Water Source: 17 % (2007) Monetary unit: Philippine peso Main exports: semiconductors and electronic products, transport equipment, garments, copper products, petroleum products, coconut oil, fruits International dialing code: +63 1 In the Philippines, the barangay is the smallest political unit. Several contiguous barangays compose a municipality or a city. Several municipalities and cities compose a province. Several provinces compose a region. The three main islands of the country: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao are made up of several regions. The Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is led by one Regional Governor, one Regional Vice Governor and 24 representatives of Regional Legislative Assembly representing the eight districts of the five provinces and one city of the region. The region has its own departments and bureaus that are independent with its counterparts at the national level. Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 7/65

2. CONTEXT ANALYSIS 2.1 Economic - political system Although the Philippines weathered the 2008-2009 global recessions better than its regional peers, poverty in the country continued to worsen (www.cia.gov, 2010). Around 32.9 percent of the population is living below poverty line; around 23 percent of the population is living below $1.25 a day. Unemployment rate is increasing (8 percent in 2010, 7.5 percent in 2009, and 7.4 percent in 2008). The downward trend of the inflation rate (from 7.6 in 2005 to 2.8 in 2007) suddenly peaked in 2008 (9.3) before decreasing to 3.2 in 2009 (www.census.gov.ph, 2010). Amidst the global financial meltdown, the onslaught of several typhoons that hit the country during the year and the peace and order problems in Mindanao, the Philippine economy managed to grow by 3.8 percent in 2008. This growth was a deceleration from the 7.1 percent achieved during the high growth period of 2007. Major contributors to growth were manufacturing, agriculture and fishery, TCS, and private services. All of the major sectors (agriculture, fishery, forestry, industry, service sector), however, decelerated in 2008 relative to 2007 (NSCB, 2010). Across all basic sectors, children, women and urban poor consistently accounted for the largest number of poor population; fishermen, farmers and children comprised the poorest sectors. In a study done by the NSCB for 2006 (Annex 2. 2006 Poverty Statistics for the Basic Sectors), ARMM had the highest concentration of poor farmers, fishermen, senior citizen and urban population. CARAGA posted high poverty incidence of poor fishermen, migrant and formal sector workers. Regions IV, V, VI, VII and VIII tallied the most number of poor children, while the highest concentration of poor women was observed in Regions IV-A, V and VI. Regions V and VI had the most number of poor youth. Region III has a high concentration of urban poor. Along with Region VI, it also had the highest magnitude of poor migrant and formal sector workers. These are some of the facts that President Benigno Aquino III has to contend with as he succeeds President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as head of government and of state starting June 30 midday. The new president takes over from an intrigue-plagued leadership, riding on a platform of anticorruption. Along with President Aquino, also elected were the vice president, 12 of 24 senators, party-list representatives, congressmen, and, provincial, city and municipal local government officials. The change in leaders is widely seen as positive. Barangay elections will follow on October 2010. An ARMM barangay election is expected on May 2011. 2.2 Population Data and Food Economy areas Total country population is at 88.57 million in 2007 (Annex 3.2007 Population) Year 2000 estimates place 59 percent of the population are residing in urban areas (www.earthtrends.wri.org, 2010). Region IV-A and NCR respectively record the highest population, as both have highly urbanized areas. Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 8/65

By production quantity, the major crops planted in 2008 are sugarcane, coconut, rice, banana and corn (www.nscb.gov.ph, 2010). Farms and coconut plantations are widely dispersed throughout the country (Manila Observatory, 2005). Palay remains as the major temporary crop in 12 of 17 regions in the country while corn remains the major temporary crop in Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN and ARMM. Coconut is considered the dominant permanent crop. Banana, however, is the top permanent crop in Cagayan Valley, Western Visayas, Davao Region and CAR; mango in Ilocos Region; and, pineapple in Northern Mindanao and SOCCSKSARGEN (www.census.gov.ph, 2002). Coconut oil is the top Philippine export while iron and steel is the top import as of April 2010. However, the country also imports raw materials and food commodities such as rice, corn, wheat, dairy products, fish, fruits, vegetables and tobacco (www.census.gov.ph, 2010). The high population in urban areas could be an effect of migration from rural areas and rapid conversion of agricultural lands into other uses. Migration may be fueled by more opportunities for livelihood in urban areas. People from the rural areas may go to urban and peri urban areas to seek employment (with companies or self-employment). This is consistent with labor and employment status data showing that laborers and unskilled workers comprise 32.5 percent of the labor force, while farmers, forestry workers and fishermen comprise only 16.7 percent (www.census.gov.ph, 2009). On the other hand, agricultural lands are dwindling because these are indiscriminately converted for industrial uses and urban expansion (Domingo and Buenaseda, 2000). 2.3 General indicators WASH Household with access to safe water Around 82 percent of the household in the Philippines have access to safe water supply (NEC, 2008), with Region VII having the lowest percentage (49 percent). The available data on the access to safe water is rather arguable due to a probable difference in definitions and safety standards in view of the health implications/exposure. The figure below shows the percentage of households have access to safe water per province (NEC, 2008). Around 77 percent of households in the country have sanitary toilet (NEC, 2008). ARMM recorded the lowest percentage (33 percent) of households with sanitary toilet, Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 9/65

followed by Region VII (46 percent). In the poorest regions and remote areas, improper sanitation practices such as open defecation are still being practiced. The figure below shows the regional wide coverage of sanitation (NEC, 2008). At the local government level, especially in the low income or in poorest regions, the investments in WASH facilities/service are not a priority and adequate funding allocations are not appropriated for WASH. In areas where the WASH coverage is inadequate, the households remain exposed to the risk of water related diseases, such as diarrhea. The figure below shows acute water diarrhea as a leading causes of the morbidity (NEC, 2008). Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 10/65

Lack of awareness on WASH and availability of health service at the local level still considered as one of the main obstacles. In remote and low income communities the WASH and health services remains limited and inaccessible to many. The figure shows the coverage of Barangay Health Stations in the regions (NEC, 2008). 2.4 General indicators FS Poverty and food thresholds Table 1. Poverty and food thresholds 2005-2007 Monthly Daily Phils. NCR 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 Poverty threshold 5,916 6,003 6,195 195 198 204 Food threshold 3,896 4,024 4,162 129 133 137 Poverty threshold 7,859 7,945 8,061 259 262 266 Food threshold 4,667 4,735 4,804 154 156 159 Source: National Statistical Coordination Board A family of five has to have a monthly income of Php 6,195 in order to address its food and non-food needs. Of this amount, minimum of Php 4,162 should be spent for food. The low income class (comprising around 81 percent of the total number of families in 2010), with an average income of Php 9,061, spends Php 4,658 a month for food (www.nscb.gov.ph, 2010). Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 11/65

Table 2. Annual per capita poverty threshold for urban and rural areas 2005-2007 All Areas Urban Rural Urban - Rural Difference Areas Areas Level % 2005 14,196 15,992 13,241 2,751 20.1 2006 14,405 16,429 13,659 2,770 20.3 2007 14,866 16,936 14,103 2,833 20.1 Source: National Statistical Coordination Board The table above shows that families in urban areas need to earn 20 percent more than the families residing in rural areas. Amount of urban-rural difference is increasing per year but percentage difference is almost the same. Food importation From 1999 to 2003, the country imported around 10 percent of its rice consumption requirements (IRRI, 2010). It may surge to around 24 percent this year due to production losses incurred in last year s series of destructive typhoons that hit Metro Manila and other Luzon provinces (www.bloomberg.com.news, 2010). This is further compounded with the drought conditions experienced by 22 provinces throughout the country during the first half of the year (www.ndcc.gov.ph, 2010). Current price of wellmilled rice is stabilizing to an average of Php 30 /kilo (www.nscb.gov.ph, 2010). Cereals and cereal preparations was the third top import for 2010. It was up by 20 percent from the previous year (www.census.gov.ph, 2010). Inflation rate Inflation rate for this year has been levelling between 4.2 and 4.4 percent. Inflation is much higher in NCR than in areas outside NCR (www.nscb.gov.ph, 2010). However, the rates are an improvement from highs in 2008 up to the first quarter of 2009. 2.5 General indicators Health and Nutrition Immunization of 9-11 months children The figure below (NEC, 2008) shows that the country has 81 percent full immunization. Region IV-B has the lowest percentage of children fully immunized among all other regions. Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 12/65

Mortality The national crude death rate is 4.3 deaths per population of 100,000. Among all other regions, Region VI has highest crude death rate. Maternal mortality rate is highest in CARAGA, while infant mortality rate is highest in NCR. The figures below compare the maternal mortality and infant mortality rates respectively per region (NEC, 2008). Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 13/65

Malnutrition Proportion of undernourishment, number of undernourished and food deficit of undernourished population in the country decreased from 1990 to 2006 (FAO, 2010). In 2005 however, PIDS reported that Regions II, IV-B, V, VI and ARMM have high prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years old). While malnutrition rates have been decreasing in most regions, the situation in ARMM has worsened. It recorded 38 percent malnutrition rate from 31 percent in 1990. The figure below shows the malnutrition status per region (PIDS, 2005). Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 14/65

To address malnutrition, the government undertook several projects including salt iodization, food fortification, nutrition education, supplemental feeding, and the food-forschool program in schools (DevPulse, 2008). In particular, the food-for school program provided one kilo of iron-fortified rice every class day for 120 days to public elementary school children. As of 2008, around 6.7 million children have benefited from the program (DepEd, 2008). Health services The country has a few government health workers catering to the health needs of the population. There are 0.3 physicians and 2.4 midwives / nurses per 10,000 people. This is most felt in Regions IVA, XI and ARMM (NEC, 2008). Many health workers probably turned to the private sector or are leaving for work abroad because of better pay. Figures below show the number of physicians and government nurses / midwives respectively per 10,000 populations (NEC, 2008). Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 15/65

For the number of barangay health stations catering to the population, CAR has the most number of health stations to population (Please refer to figure on BHS per population under WASH). It has 4 stations per 10,000 people. Metro Manila has the least number, but this is compensated by the presence of public and private hospitals. ARMM has the next lowest number with only one per ten thousand people (NEC, 2008). Other health and nutrition data of regions and provinces gathered by NEC are annexed (Annex 4.Field Health Services Information System 2008). 2.6 Analysis of the national disaster reduction system Generally, the NDCC depends on its local counterparts at the region to the barangay levels to assess and respond to emergencies in their respective localities. It only calls for international help when its capacity to respond is already at maximum. When it does so, the Interagency Standing Committee or IASC (now called the Humanitarian Country Team) led by the UN Resident Coordinator becomes the vehicle for that international appeal. The general response to the 2009 series of typhoons showed the varied degrees of preparedness among organizations and levels of government. In general, the response to the disaster was good. However, several challenges hampered operations as cited by the Interagency Real Time Evaluation (IARTE). The local and national capacity to immediately respond to the needs of displaced people was severely tested. The international response, through Interagency Standing Committee and the Clusters, did not systematically take into consideration the existing national capacities and mechanisms. Coordination and prioritization of response activities as clusters was also challenging. Aside from some operational options, the RTE mission team recommended that disaster risk reduction must be prioritized in future funding (Annex 5.IA-RTE Final Report) The recent signing of RA 10121 (Annex 6. REPUBLIC ACT 10121 Part 1 and Annex 7. REPUBLIC ACT 10121 Part 2), or the Philippine Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010, further strengthens the country s disaster risk reduction and management. The law does not only change the name of the NDCC into the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), but gives emphases to wholistic, multi-hazard, multi-sector, interagency and community-based approach to risk reduction and management. Moreover, the Act espouses rights-based and genderresponsive approaches. It also emphasizes institutional capability building of LGUs and line agencies. It incorporates climate change and DRR into its national framework. One very important change from NDCC to NDRRMC would be the budget. The NDRRMC now has a revolving fund for risk reduction, preparedness and mitigation, whereas before it does not have. Government agencies are also authorized to allocate a portion of their funds for DRRM activities. With the new law, the government affirms its commitment to put equal emphasis on finding out the root causes of vulnerabilities. Complimenting the passage of RA 10121 is the passage of RA 2583, or the Climate Change Act of 2008 (Annex 8.Philippines Climate Change Act 2009). The Act provides for the establishment of a commission that will serve as the policy-making body of the government on climate change. It will also be tasked to coordinate, monitor and evaluate related programs. This law mainstreams climate change adaptation within the national, sector and local government plans and programs. It is important to note that Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 16/65

this law allows relevant government agencies and LGUs to allocate funds for climate change adaptation programs. Since schools are used as evacuation centers in times of emergencies, the education sector is gearing up to make schools safer and more child-friendly even in emergency situations. The Department of Education collaborated with several organizations to come up with and distribute a disaster risk reduction resource manual for schools. The Department is also including climate change and disaster risk reduction into the curricula of elementary and high school students. Although it has not been made into a policy yet, school officials are contemplating on putting a limit on the days of stay of IDPs and evacuees in schools and asking local officials to designate other alternative evacuation centers. This is to help assure that the rights of children to education are fulfilled even during emergencies. While the PRRM Act will create headway for the national government in making the country more disaster-resilient, lots of work will have to be made for local governments. The challenge for past and on-going training for disaster preparedness, mitigation and risk reduction that are hinged on the active participation of elected and appointed officials is the sustainability of these programs. With the changes in municipal officials due to the local election and the nearing barangay elections, local governments will need continual retooling and guidance from the NDRRMC and the NGOs. Mechanisms may need to be put in place to ensure proper knowledge management transference and sustained education. 2.7 Vulnerable groups and areas Maguindanao is the most vulnerable province because it has the lowest HDI. This is consistent with poverty, WASH, health and nutrition estimates for the region. Next are Sulu, Tawi-tawi, Basilan; Kalinga, Apayao, Ifugao; Nueva Ecija, Palawan, Occidental Mindoro; Antique, Iloilo, Negros Oriental; Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Masbate; Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Western Samar; Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Compostela; Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani, North Cotabato and Lanao del Sur. However, it must be noted that vulnerable sectors are present even in areas with high HDI. The 2009 typhoons has proven that the poor and marginalized are very vulnerable during floods and typhoons since they are the ones usually situated in very risky areas for habitation (DARA, 2010). Moreover, migration of indigenous people to urban areas should also be taken into account. Their migration comes as a result of the loss of livelihood, lack of social services or due to tribal conflicts. Because of the lack of education and limited skills, they often face unemployment and poverty (www.un.org, 2010). Majority (61 percent) of the indigenous people are in Mindanao while around 33 percent are in Luzon (www.adb.org, 2002). 2.8 Security analysis (Excerpted from www.aglobalworld.com, 2010) The security situation has improved in most areas of the country in recent years. The government of the Philippines is engaged in negotiations with communist and Muslim rebels. Nevertheless, rebel activity along with armed banditry in certain areas of the Philippines still poses potential security concerns. Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 17/65

Although the New Peoples Army is greatly reduced from its height in the 1980's, NPA insurgents remain active in mountainous and jungle areas, including some parts of Mindanao and Negros Island as well as Quezon province and the Cordillera and Bicol regions of Luzon. In Mindanao, crime and insurgent activity may make travel hazardous to and within the provinces of Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao, Lanao Del Sur, Lanao Del Norte, Sulu, Basilan, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga del Norte, North and South Cotabato, and Sultan Kudarat. The threat of terrorist action by extremists, both domestic and foreign, does exist in the Philippines. There are periodic reports of plans for possible kidnapping or terrorist acts aimed at U.S. government installations, public and private institutions and means of transportation. However, the majority of these reports have not been followed by terrorist action. 2.9 Other relevant There is less than 0.1 % prevalence of HIV-AIDS in the country (UNICEF, 2008); although it is suspected that many cases are not reported to authorities. In June 2009, the country recorded 1,709 confirmed cases of AH1N1. Most (86 percent) of the cases have fully recovered as of the last reporting date (DOH, 2009). Since 2006, the Philippines has zero cases of foot and mouth disease (www.ausaid.gov.au, 2008). 2.10 Reference and bibliography General: PNUD Human development reports by country: http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/ CIA fact book https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ Prevention Web Serving the information for disaster risk http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/ Language: http://www.ethnologue.com/country_index.asp http://www.census.gov.ph/ http://www.nscb.gov.ph National Epidemiology Center (NEC). Field Health Services Information System Annual Report. 2008. Estrella V. Domingo and Millicent Gay B. Buenaseda. In: http://www.unescap.org/stat/envstat/stwes-044.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/file:philippines_hdi_map.svg http://www.servinghistory.com/topics/list_of_philippine_provinces_by_hdi http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/philippines_2003_annex_1.pdf http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/6_session_factsheet2.pdf www.doh.gov.ph http://www.ausaid.gov.au/media/release.cfm?bc=media&id=110_2440_8589_57_293 DARA. Interagency Real Time Evaluation of the Humanitarian Response to Typhoons Ketsana and Parma in the Philippines. 2010. http://www.aglobalworld.com Economic: http://www.worldbank.org/ http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm http://www.trading-safely.com/sitecwp/cefr.nsf Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 18/65

http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/ap2007tx.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/philippine-rice-imports-may-jump-by-24- on-output-cuts-after-2009-typhoon.html Conflict analysis: Resource pack Conflict sensitive approach Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 19/65

3. HAZARD AND RISK ANALYSIS 3. Analysis of past hazards and effects The table below summarizes some of the emergencies / disasters that happened in the country in the past three years (CDRC, 2010; NDCC, 2010). The series of typhoons and floods in 2009 was by far the worst as it affected millions of people and immediately destroyed close to 20 billion pesos worth of properties, infrastructure and livelihood. The disaster was said to be a confluence of many factors: high tide, garbage problems, poor drainage and water release in dams without warning. The complex emergencies / armed conflict in Mindanao in 2008 displaced the most number of people. Displacement was also prolonged as confrontations happened from time to time. Up to the present, there still are IDPs in Maguindanao Province as a result of this armed conflict. Mayon Volcano in Region V and Taal Volcano in Region IV-A increased its activities during 2009 and 2010 respectively. While there were no eruptions, people were preemptively evacuated to avoid any casualty. Table 1. Occurrence of hazards for the past 3 years Zone Year Hazard P.afect P.disp Death Region IV-A 2010 Volcanic 3,523 697 0 activities Region II 2010 Drought 1.4 million 0 0 Regions 2009 Typhoons 8.4 million 85,000 763 NCR, CAR, III, IV-A Floods Region V 2009 Volcanic 47,800 45,000 0 activities Regions X, XII, ARMM 2008 Complex emergencies 800,000 800,000 380 Armed conflict was the most frequent hazard to occur in the past 10 years. These conflicts may be between government forces and the rebel forces of the MILF and NPA, and terrorist group Abu Sayyaf. These were mainly in Mindanao area of the Philippines. Occurrence of typhoons was not as frequent as other hazards, but it nevertheless affected the most number of people in the last 10 years. An average of 20 typhoons enters the Philippine area of responsibility, four to six of which are very damaging. It had an average of 481,000 people affected per occurrence. For the last 10 years, there were fewer occurrences of disasters but the number of persons affected increased (CDRC, 2010). Last year, the series of typhoons (Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng) mainly ravaged Luzon and affected more than 8 million people and caused close to 28 billion pesos worth of economic losses. In 2008, Typhoon Frank caused close to a Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 20/65

thousand deaths when it rammed through several areas of Luzon and Visayas. It also caused around 13 billion pesos worth of damages (www.typhoon2000, 2010). A table on the frequency of occurrence of hazards and the number of affected is presented below (CDRC, 2010; Annex 9.2009 Philippine Disaster Report). Table 2. Frequency of occurrence of hazards and number of affected for the last 10 years Hazard Number of affected (last 10 years) Frequency of occurrence (last 10 years) Drought 439,357 10 Earthquakes 126,647 43 Floods 16,443,076 265 Tropical cyclones / 58,142,006 121 typhoons Epidemics 238,486 163 Insect infestations 451,904 58 Landslides 264,770 186 Volcano 330,153 8 Waves / Surge 203,520 41 Tornado 87,526 98 Conflict/ Armed 3,060,303 283 violence 4. Analysis of current potential threats Hazard Type / Details Natural disaster Refer to drought sheet Drought Earthquakes Extreme Temperature - Meteorological drought - Agricultural drought - Hydrologic drought - Socio-economic drought Refer to earthquake sheet Refer to extreme High probability (very likely to occur within the year) Medium probability (likely to occur within the year) PHIVOLCS warned of a possible earthquake in Metro Manila. Government and Clusters have started preparing for a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Metro Manila. Low probability (small likelihood to occur within the year) El Nino affected country up to June 2009. However, La Nina episode initiated in the country towards the middle of the year. Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 21/65

temperature sheet Floods Landslides Volcano Waves / Surge Tropical cyclones / typhoons Insect infestations - Heat waves - Cold waves Refer to flood sheet. Refer to landslide sheet Refer to volcano sheet. Refer to storm surge sheet. Refer to tropical cyclone sheet. Refer to insect infestation sheet Some parts of the country will experience perennial flooding towards the 2 nd half of the year during monsoon rains and typhoons. Low-lying, riverside and seaside areas will be at risk. Many Metro Manila areas are still at risk to flooding. La Nina episode is also expected to affect the country towards the second half of the year. High probability to happen during high rainfall intensity or prolonged precipitation, especially in mountainous and high slope areas. Mt. Mayon very active last year. While its activity has quieted down, possibility of an eruption should not be discounted. Taal Volcano already under Alert 2 status. People living near seashores are vulnerable to surges during strong typhoons / storms. These have localised impacts. Yearly around 20 typhoons enter the Philippine area of responsibility, 4-6 of which are destructive. Localised tornados happened yearly from years 2000 to 2009. The trend suggests that these can happen also this year. Infestations were recorded yearly from years 2000 to 2004. From 2004 to 2009, trend shows presence of Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 22/65

Human-Made disaster Conflict Health disaster Epidemics Refer to conflict sheet. Refer to global pandemic sheet. infestation every other year. In the past years, the government engaged several armed groups (MILF, NPA, Abu Sayyaf) in combats. With peace talks on-going, both the government and the secessionist MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) may be wary of escalating their conflict into full scale. However, isolated cases of conflict may be expected in some areas of ARMM and Region XII. With the protracted war of ideologist NPA (New People s Army) against the government, packets of armed confrontations may also be expected in rural areas of the country. With terrorist group Abu Sayyaf, armed conflict may be limited to provinces in ARMM. The global pandemic AH1N1 seems to have reached a small portion of the population. There still is some fear that it may mutate into a stronger strain. Localised waterborne disease outbreaks may occur in some rural areas of the country. Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 23/65

5. Risk priorities Very Low Low High Very High frequency 6 (Risk Index: 18) SEVERE WEATHER, STORM SURGE (Risk Index: 24) FLOOD, LANDSLIDE, DEBRIS FLOW or SUBSIDENCE Frequent or very likely 5 (Risk Index: 20) VOLCANO ERUPTIONS, WARFARE Moderate or likely 4 (Risk Index: 16) EARTHQUAKE Occasional, slight chance 3 Unlikely, improbable 2 Highly unlikely (rare event) 1 OTHER HAZARDS? (Risk Index: 4) TSUNAMI Very rare event 1 2 3 4 severity Risk index is the product between a score (from 1 to 6) in frequency and a score (1 to 4) in severity. Based on the online Hazard-risk-vulnerability assessment (HRVA) tool, those within the red zone are frequent and have high severity. Floods and landslides have the most frequency and highest severity. Next are armed conflicts and volcanic eruptions, followed by typhoons and storm surges. Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 24/65

6. Seasonal Risk calendar Rainy season in the country is generally from June to December. The mean annual rainfall of the country varies from 965 to 4,064 millimetres annually (www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph, 2010). The southwest monsoon (May to October) brings with it the heavy rains (http://www.newsflash.org/2004/02/ht/ht005330.htm, 2010). However, there are many areas that experience fairly distributed rainfall throughout the year. There are also areas that experience more pronounced rainfall from October to February. Rain-induced landslides coincide with floods during these times. Typhoons usually occur with heavy rains, but there are cases when rainfall is only light. Storm surges only happen when there are typhoons, and these affect only coastal areas. Seasonal risk calendar for Philippines is presented below. Armed conflict, volcanic eruption and earthquakes were not included in this figure. Medium risk High risk Month Hazards Floods Landslides Waves / Surge Windstorms / Hurricanes Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 7. Risk Mapping The provinces most at risk to typhoons and floods are Pangasinan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Batangas and Mountain Province (Annex 10.Typhoon risk map). For volcanic eruption, Taal Volcano in Batangas and Mayon Volcano in Albay have very recent activities, although there are other volcanoes that are still considered active (Annex 11.Volcanic eruption risk map). Armed conflict, though dispersed throughout the country, will likely affect ARMM more than other regions because of onand-off peace negotiations and clan wars (Annex 12.Armed conflict risk map). For earthquake, Metro Manila scenarios were chosen, as these are also among priority contingencies among other organizations (Annex 13.Earthquake risk map). 8. General response capacity Summarized below are some of the organizations working on emergencies and disaster risk reduction. It must be noted that the Philippines has so many local and international organizations working on emergencies. The tables below refer only to members of the Philippine International NGOs Network (PINGON) and the UN System. Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 25/65

Organization Field/Sectors Area Oxfam GB WASH, Food Security, Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the Livelihood, DRR, NFI country Description: Current head of PINGON. Has recovery activities within Metro Manila, Rizal and Laguna following the 2010 series of typhoons. Also has project in Maguindanao. Organization Field Area Catholic Relief Services Food Security, Livelihood, Shelter, Peace Building, DRR, NFI Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the country Description: PINGON member. Has shelter projects in Bulacan and Rizal. Has regular Peace Building, FS and livelihood programs in Quezon, Bukidnon, Maguindanao, and other parts of Mindanao. Organization Field Area CFSI Protection, Food Security, Education Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the country Description: Currently has protection projects in Rizal and Pangasinan. It also has education and protection projects in Maguindanao. Organization Field Area Save the Children Education, Protection, Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the WASH, NFI country Description: Currently has recovery and rehabilitation projects in Laguna, Maguindanao and North Cotabato. Organization Field Area World Vision Protection, Education, Regions X, XI and XII; Rizal Province WASH, Shelter, NFI Description: Currently has projects in Rizal and in different parts of Mindanao. Organization Field Area ADRA WASH, NFI Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the country. Description: Recently finished response and recovery efforts in Laguna. Organization Field Area Child Fund Education, Protection Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the country Description: Has response and recovery projects in Laguna, Pangasinan and in Mountain Province. Organization Field Area UN System Education, Food Security, Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the NFI, WASH, Shelter, country Protection, Health and Nutrition, Camp Management, Livelihood Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 26/65

Description: Composed of organizations belonging to the UN family, the System responded to those affected by Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng in Metro Manila and nearby provinces. On-going projects recovery and rehabilitation projects for complex emergency in Regions XII and ARMM. The table below indicates response capacities of different organizations / entities. The scores are from 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest. 5 with many trained deployable personnel and pre-existing in the at-risk areas; 4 with many trained deployable personnel, not pre-existing in at-risk areas but can operate in areas with emergency; 3 with deployable personnel but few are trained 2 with few deployable personnel but none are trained 1 No deployable trained personnel, cannot operate in areas in emergency Potential emergency needs Response capacity (From 1 to 5) Local population National agencies through local counterparts Civil defense /military ACF mission Immediate needs Search and rescue 3 3 4 1 1 First aid 3 3 4 1 1 Emergency evacuation 3 3 4 1 1 Water and sanitation needs Distribution, storage, processing 2 2 1 4 4 Rehabilitation/development of 2 2 1 4 4 alternative sources Disposal of excreta 2 2 1 4 4 Disposal of garbage 2 3 1 4 4 Personal hygiene 2 2 1 4 4 Insect and rodent control 2 2 1 4 4 Food and nutritional needs Short-term distribution 2 4 1 3 4 Long-term distribution 2 4 1 3 4 Supplementary/curative feeding 2 3 1 2 4 Agriculture 3 3 1 4 4 Nutritional monitoring 2 3 1 2 4 Shelter needs Emergency Shelter 2 2 1 3 4 Buildings/structures 2 3 1 3 4 Blankets 3 3 1 1 4 Fuel for dwellings 3 3 1 1 4 Kitchen utensils 3 3 1 1 4 Safety and security needs Well-being 2 3 2 4 4 Safety of beneficiaries 2 2 3 4 4 Safety of Staff 2 2 4 4 4 UN System Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 27/65

Control of violence 3 3 4 2 2 Control of abuse of power 2 2 2 2 2 Other types of emergency needs? Agreements with others partners 1 3 1 4 4 Community disaster plans 1 1 1 3 3 Community solidarity plans 1 1 1 3 3 Most of the scores of the local people are 2, although for immediate needs all scores are 3. Oftentimes it is the local people themselves who initiate search and rescue. However, capacities and capabilities will differ from one region, province, city, municipality or barangay to another. Not everyone is trained to undertake some response measures. Capacities of local agencies as counterpart of national agencies will also vary from place to place. The military usually takes lead action in search and rescue activities and in cleaning / repairing infrastructures, but little else in other sectors. ACF mission, on the other hand, does not do search and rescue but has high capacity in responding through WASH and food security. ACF scored 2 in nutrition because it does not have dedicated staff yet to this sector. 9. ACF Response priorities The table below is used to choose the different scenarios that will be developed all along the contingency planning process. Disasters are chosen according to the impact on HH and on the internal capacity of the organization/mandate/core competencies to respond quickly to the crisis. Floods, typhoons, storm surges and landslides will be the first priority since these hazards are frequent, have high impact on FS, nutrition and WASH, and ACF has high internal capacity to respond to this emergency. Also, these hazards usually occur together so that they can be lumped together in one scenario. Armed conflicts and volcanic eruptions will also be prioritized. These are imminent dangers that will affect many lives. Moreover, Taal Volcano is near ACF Metro Manila base while Mayon Volcano is also near Bicol field base. The Metro Manila earthquake will also be prioritized not only because of its impact on FS, nutrition and WASH but also because it will severely impact on the capacity and capability of the Metro Manila base to operate and respond since it will also be severely affected. Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 28/65

Impact on FS, Nut, WASH Risk index 6. Very low Int Capacity low Int Capacity high Int Capacity Floods, typhoons, Storm surges landslides Very high Int Capacity Frequent or very likely 5. Armed conflict, volcanic eruption Moderate or likely 4. Earthquake Occasional, slight chance 3. Unlikely, improbable 2. Highly unlikely (rare impact) 1. Very rare impact ACH Internal response capacities/core competencies 10. Risk exposure index and mapping Maps are annexed (Annexes 10 to 13). 11. Reference and bibliography Disaster resources database: Prevention web http://www.preventionweb.net/english/maps/?pid:34&pih:2 Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 29/65 UN- Mortality Risk index.pdf

EM-DAT: http://www.emdat.be/database/countryprofile/countryprofiles.php UN: http://gridca.grid.unep.ch/undp/ CRED: http://www.cred.be/ Mortality, Nutrition, Vaccination coverage: http://www.cedat.be/data NGOs list: http://www.ngo-ong.org/spip.php?page=sommaire&id_rubrique=4# OCHA Disaster Response Preparedness Toolkit, Disaster Risk Analysis Global Risk data Platform http://pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/statfram.htm http://www.newsflash.org/2004/02/ht/ht005330.htm http://zip-codes.philsite.net/metromanila_map.jpg Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 30/65

4. SCENARIOS BUILDING 12. Scenarios CONTINGENCY A : Typhoons, floods, landslides, storm surges Scenario Description of event / trigger indicator Affected Area Affected people Impact Best case scenario Occurrence of typhoons, floods, storm surges, flash floods and / or rain-induced landslides Up to Signal No. 1 typhoon Flood water subsides within 15-30 minutes Both rural and urban centers are affected 10 percent of total population are affected Roads passable; damages still minor 10 percent of infrastructure, agriculture and livelihood are affected / damaged Up to 1 day disruption to major lifelines Aggravating factors / Specific vulnerable groups Aggravating factor: If typhoon hits low risk areas (see risk map) People in low-lying and coastal areas Most likely scenario Occurrence of typhoons, floods, storm surges, flash floods and / or rain-induced landslides Signal No. 2 typhoon Flood water subsides within 1-2 hours Both rural and urban centers are affected. 30 percent of total population are affected 30 percent of infrastructure, agriculture and livelihood are affected / damaged Disruption of lifelines in some areas for 2-3 days Some difficulty in the transport of goods because of damage to roads; inflation of prices of goods Aggravating factor: If typhoon hits medium risk areas (see risk map) Those living near bodies of water, lowlying areas, near dams, under bridges, near canals, in mountainous areas are at risk. Those resettled in areas that are not safe from multi hazard are also at risk. People living in light to semilight material houses are also vulnerable. Worst case scenario Occurrence of typhoons, floods, storm surges, flash floods and / or rain-induced landslides Both urban and rural areas are affected Equal to or more than 40 percent of At least 1-week disruption of major services and lifelines (telecom, electricity, water Aggravating factor: If typhoon hits high risk areas (see risk map) Those IDPs that are still living in IDP camps Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 31/65

Signal No. 3 and 4 Flood water does not subside within 2 hours and may last for days, weeks or months population affected are services, hospitals, etc.) Disruption of sea, land and air travels Destruction and siltation in farms, fish ponds, plantations Outbreak water-borne diseases Food shortage of Schooling suspended and schools used as evacuation centers Price inflation NDCC already calls for international assistance and house-based setups Those living near bodies of water, lowlying areas, near dams, under bridges, near canals, in mountainous areas are at risk. Those resettled in areas that are not safe from multi hazard are also at risk. People living in light to semilight material houses are also vulnerable. Many of those in Metro Manila and neighbouring provinces that were affected in last year s typhoons are informal settlers that went back to atrisk places (under bridges, near rivers, etc.) CONTINGENCY B : Volcanic eruption Description of Scenario event / trigger indicator Best case scenario Level 1 warning from PHIVOLCS for volcanic activity Affected Area Affected people Around 13,000 people people living within the effective danger radius are evacuated to safer areas Impact Disruption of classes in schools used as evacuation centers Discomforts for both displaced and current students in the host schools Disruption of economic activities of the displaced people Aggravating factors / Specific vulnerable groups Pregnant and lactating women, nutritionally-atrisk children / children, persons with disabilities, IPs, senior citizen in the evacuation centers Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 32/65

Increased risks to communicable diseases of those in the evacuation centers Decreased access to food, potable water, latrines Most likely scenario Level 2 warning from PHIVOLCS for volcanic activity Around 70,000 people living within the effective danger radius are evacuated to safer areas Increase in number of tourists Disruption of classes in schools used as evacuation centers Discomforts for both displaced and current students in the host schools Pregnant and lactating women, nutritionally-atrisk children / children, persons with disabilities, IPs, senior citizen in the evacuation centers Disruption of economic activities of the displaced people Increased risks to communicable diseases of those in the evacuation centers Decreased access to food, potable water, latrines Worst case scenario Eruption volcano of Around 150,000 people living within the danger zones Increase in number of tourists Disruption of economic activities of the displaced people Destruction of properties within Pregnant and lactating women, nutritionally-atrisk children / children, persons with disabilities, IPs, senior citizen in the evacuation centers Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 33/65

the danger zones Ash fall covers many farm lands and fish ponds in the vicinity of Batangas and Laguna hindering crop and fish production Farm laborers / farmers and fish pond workers / fisher folks in the areas affected Those with health respiratory problems are also at risk Increased risks to communicable diseases of those in the evacuation centers Decreased access to food, potable water, latrines Increased incidence of prostitution, forced migration and petty crimes CONTINGENCY C : Armed conflict Description of Scenario event / trigger indicator Best case scenario Most likely scenario Armed conflict between government and NPA or government and MILF Sporadic fighting Armed conflict between government and MILF Affected Area Affected people 2 provinces: Maguindanao and North Cotabato for GOP-MILF Bicol, CARAGA regions for GOP- NPA 100,000 people affected but not all displaced 4 provinces affected in Regions X, XII and ARMM Impact Partial damage to agriculture and infrastructure Displacement 1-2 weeks Damages to vital Aggravating factors / Specific vulnerable groups Presence of other armed threats / conflicts (family feuds, tribal wars, kidnap-forransom groups like Abu Sayyaf and Pentagon) Women, children, elderly, PWD, pregnant and lactating, farmers, IPs, fishermen and farm workers are vulnerable Presence of other armed threats / conflicts (family feuds, tribal wars, kidnap-for- Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 34/65

Worst case scenario Failure of peace talks; all-out war between government and MILF 500,000 affected; 400,000 displaced; 100,000 with damaged properties; 100,000 may suffer natural disaster effects 9 provinces affected in Regions IX, X, XI, XII, ARMM 1 million affected; 800,000 are displaced; 500,000 in IDP camp, while 300,000 are house-based infra; malfunctions and disruption of markets More than 2 weeks displacement Destruction of farms, major infrastructure Inaccessibility of fishing grounds to fisher folks Inaccessibility of farm to farmers ransom groups like Abu Sayyaf and Pentagon) Women, children, elderly, PWD, pregnant and lactating, farmers, IPs, fishermen and farm workers are vulnerable Presence of other armed threats / conflicts (family feuds, tribal wars, kidnap-forransom groups like Abu Sayyaf and Pentagon) Women, children, elderly, PWD, pregnant and lactating, farmers, IPs, fishermen and farm workers are vulnerable Congestion IDP camps in High incidence of illnesses / waterborn diseases and deaths especially among children and mothers Increase malnutrition in Restriction of movement of humanitarian workers Inaccessibility to IDPs most of the time due to road blocks Frequent transfer of IDPs from one place to another Traumatic cases Selling properties of Increase in incidences of human rights violation / sexual abuse Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 35/65

CONTINGENCY D: Earthquake Description of Scenario event / trigger indicator Best case Magnitude 5 or scenario less; with some debris falling (soil, rocks, others) Most likely scenario Affected Area Affected people Impact Metro Manila Old buildings cracked; houses made of light materials with minor damages; some people shocked; some panic Magnitude 6 Metro Manila Minor damage to roads, buildings, houses; lifelines disrupted from a day to a few days Aggravating factors / Specific vulnerable groups Pregnant and lactating; elderly; persons with disabilities; children Secondary hazards: landslide, falling debris and fire in some areas Pregnant and lactating; elderly; persons with disabilities; children Worst case scenario Magnitude 7 and up Metro Manila; 3 million affected with 750,000 displaced; neighbouring provinces may also be affected Buildings and houses destroyed or heavily damaged; major roads impassable due to heavy damage; lifelines (electricity, water, communications) cut for 1 week or more; hospitals and health centers severely damaged and with minimum personnel; very limited access to food; disruption of trading / businesses Very high number of injured and deaths Possible panic buying, hoarding and civil discord due to food shortage Several strong aftershocks follow Secondary hazards: landslides in many areas, falling debris, fires, tsunami (Manila Bay), volcanic eruption in provinces with volcanoes People staying in areas with many high-rise or old buildings are very much vulnerable; Pregnant and lactating, elderly, persons with disabilities, children are also very vulnerable The national government, UN agencies and many international/local organizations located in Metro Manila are severely challenged because they are also victims Many stress- Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 36/65

related problems surfacing 13. Problem tree Root causes of problems associated with food security, nutrition and WASH in the scenarios were listed using problem trees. To summarize, here are the root causes in the different scenarios: Typhoons: Most likely to worst case 1) Food insecurity - no / lack of income, no farm / fishing activity, damaged farms / fisheries, inputs and implements, damaged roads, higher prices of goods 2) Malnutrition no farm / fishing activity, higher prices of goods, small amount of food given in evacuation centers 3) WASH (increased morbidity and mortality) - damaged latrines, damaged water systems / piping connections Volcanic eruption: Most likely to worst case 1) Food insecurity destruction of farms / fishing grounds, loss of farm / fishing implements, lack of livelihood alternatives 2) Malnutrition - no farm / fishing activity, higher prices of goods, small amount of food given in evacuation centers 3) WASH lack of hygiene facilities, poor hygiene practices, inadequate sanitary toilets, inadequate water facilities, poor waste facilities, poor waste management practices Armed conflict: Most likely to worst case 1) Food insecurity destruction of properties, loss of tools / equipment and farm / fishing inputs, no farm activity because of displacement, diversion of family financial resources for livelihood to food and basic necessities 2) Malnutrition water facilities are not enough where populations are congested, no livelihood activities, restriction of movement to where the food is 3) WASH lack of hygiene knowledge, lack of hygiene kits and supplies, lack of hand washing and bathing facilities, insufficient number of latrines, poor waste management, lack of potable water supply Metro Manila earthquake: Most likely to worst case 1) Food insecurity hoarding, panic buying, damaged food storage facilities, damaged road network and communication system 2) Malnutrition hoarding, panic buying, damaged food and storage facilities, damaged road network 3) WASH damaged health facilities, lack of attending personnel, lack of hand washing / bathing facilities, lack of latrines, damaged pipelines and water sources, increased practice of open defecation, no proper garbage disposal Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 37/65

Problem trees are in Annexes 14 to 16.. 14. Linking scenarios and response plan Contingency plan Description Support documents Scenario Occurrence of typhoons, floods, storm surges, flash floods and / or raininduced landslides; or Problem trees (Annexes 14, 15, 16) Signal No. 2 typhoon; and Solution Tree (Annexes 17, 18, 19) Response strategy Flood water subsides within 1-2 hours Food insecurity increase access to food and market facilities, livelihood and marketing activities, and, provide farm and fishing inputs Implementation plan Malnutrition increase food given in evacuation centers High morbidity and mortality installation of latrines, and, rehabilitation of water system, pipelines, connections and water sources Food security food aid, cash-for-work for rehabilitation of irrigation facilities, general free distribution of farm / fishing equipment and inputs Nutrition rapid health assessment, rapid nutrition assessment, supplementary nutrition programmes, community mobilization programmes when situation lasts for weeks WASH civil engineering, quick-fixing of water network, chlorination, construction / rehabilitation of communal latrines, LFA (Annex 20.LFA) Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 38/65

Operational support plan Preparedness plan and budget Intervention budget water trucking, distribution of hygiene kits and hygiene promotion, construction of hand wash, laundry and bathing facilities, water treatment by batch system, solid waste management List of task and responsibilities Preparedness budget Budget Contingency plan Description Support documents Scenario Level 2 warning from Problem trees (Annexes 14, 15, 16) PHIVOLCS for volcanic activity Solution Tree (Annexes 17, 18, 19) Response strategy Food insecurity provision of income-generating projects, farm / fishing implements, and alternative livelihood Malnutrition increase food amount given in evacuation centers Implementation plan High morbidity and mortality installation of latrines, and, rehabilitation of water system, pipelines, connections and water sources Food security food aid, cash voucher, provision of alternative livelihood Nutrition - rapid health assessment, rapid nutrition assessment, supplementary nutrition programmes, community mobilization programmes when situation lasts for weeks WASH quick-fixing of water network, chlorination, construction / rehabilitation of communal latrines, water trucking, distribution of hygiene kits LFA (Annex 20.LFA) Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 39/65

Operational support plan Preparedness plan and budget Intervention budget and hygiene promotion, construction of hand wash, laundry and bathing facilities List of task and responsibilities Preparedness budget Budget Contingency plan Description Support documents Scenario Armed conflict: 4 provinces affected in Regions X, XII and ARMM 500,000 affected; 400,000 displaced; 100,000 with damaged properties; 100,000 may suffer natural disaster effects Response strategy Food insecurity rehabilitation of farms, provision of tools and equipment, allotment of financial capital, financial aid Malnutrition provide more food / access to food Problem trees (Annexes 14, 15, 16) Solution Tree (Annexes 17, 18, 19) Implementation plan High morbidity and mortality hygiene promotion, provision of hygiene kit supplies and hand washing / bathing facilities, provision of latrines, provision of waste disposal materials, provision of potable water supply Food security general free distribution of farm inputs and tools, seeds and tools, cash-based incentives, provision of alternative livelihood Nutrition - rapid health assessment, rapid nutrition assessment, supplementary nutrition programmes, community LFA (Annex 20.LFA) Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 40/65

mobilization programmes when situation lasts for weeks, therapeutic nutrition programme Operational support plan Preparedness plan and budget Intervention budget WASH construction of communal latrines, distribution of water tablets, construction / rehabilitation of wells, water trucking, hygiene promotion and distribution of hygiene kits, construction of communal showers, provision of garbage bins, mosquito net distribution, potties and nappies distribution List of task and responsibilities Preparedness budget Budget Contingency plan Description Support documents Scenario Magnitude 6 earthquake in Metro Manila Problem trees (Annexes 14, 15, 16) Solution Tree (Annexes 17, 18, 19) Response strategy Food insecurity provision of food / cash, restore food storage facilities, have alternative routes for food delivery Malnutrition provision of food Implementation plan High morbidity and mortality improve access to hygiene, sanitation facilities and water potable supply Food security food-forwork, food aid Nutrition - rapid health assessment, rapid nutrition assessment, supplementary nutrition programmes, community mobilization programmes when situation lasts for weeks LFA (Annex 20.LFA) Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 41/65

Operational support plan Preparedness plan and budget Intervention budget WASH communal latrines, school latrines, communal bathing facilities, construction / repair of water sources, water trucking, water treatment / chlorination, distribution of hygiene kits List of task and responsibilities Preparedness budget Budget 15. Reference and bibliography www.ndcc.gov.ph Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 42/65

5. RESPONSE PLANNING OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGIES 16. Response plan Solution Tree Solutions to root problems are summarized below: Typhoons Food insecurity increase access to food and market facilities, livelihood and marketing activities, and, provide farm and fishing inputs Malnutrition increase food given in evacuation centers High morbidity and mortality installation of latrines, and, rehabilitation of water system, pipelines, connections and water sources Volcanic eruption i. Food insecurity provision of income-generating projects, farm / fishing implements, and alternative livelihood ii. iii. Malnutrition increase food amount given in evacuation centers High morbidity and mortality installation of latrines, and, rehabilitation of water system, pipelines, connections and water sources Armed conflict Food insecurity rehabilitation of farms, provision of tools and equipment, allotment of financial capital, financial aid Malnutrition provide more food / access to food High morbidity and mortality hygiene promotion, provision of hygiene kit supplies and hand washing / bathing facilities, provision of latrines, provision of waste disposal materials, provision of potable water supply Metro Manila earthquake Food insecurity provision of food / cash, restore food storage facilities, have alternative routes for food delivery Malnutrition provision of food High morbidity and mortality improve access to hygiene, sanitation facilities and water potable supply Solution trees are annexed (Annexes 17 to 19). Activity sheets Typhoons Food security food aid, cash-for-work for rehabilitation of irrigation facilities, general free distribution of farm / fishing equipment and inputs Nutrition rapid health assessment, rapid nutrition assessment, supplementary nutrition programmes, community mobilization programmes when situation lasts for weeks WASH civil engineering, quick-fixing of water network, chlorination, Contingency plan Philippines 5. Response planning 43/65

construction / rehabilitation of communal latrines, water trucking, distribution of hygiene kits and hygiene promotion, construction of hand wash, laundry and bathing facilities, water treatment by batch system, solid waste management Volcanic eruptions Food security food aid, cash voucher, provision of alternative livelihood Nutrition - rapid health assessment, rapid nutrition assessment, supplementary nutrition programmes, community mobilization programmes when situation lasts for weeks WASH quick-fixing of water network, chlorination, construction / rehabilitation of communal latrines, water trucking, distribution of hygiene kits and hygiene promotion, construction of hand wash, laundry and bathing facilities Armed conflict Food security general free distribution of farm inputs and tools, seeds and tools, cash-based incentives, food aid, provision of alternative livelihood Nutrition - rapid health assessment, rapid nutrition assessment, supplementary nutrition programmes, community mobilization programmes when situation lasts for weeks, therapeutic nutrition programme WASH construction of communal latrines, distribution of water tablets, construction / rehabilitation of wells, water trucking, hygiene promotion and distribution of hygiene kits, construction of communal showers, provision of garbage bins, mosquito net distribution, potties and nappies distribution Metro Manila earthquake Food security food-for-work, food aid Nutrition - rapid health assessment, rapid nutrition assessment, supplementary nutrition programmes, community mobilization programmes when situation lasts for weeks WASH communal latrines, school latrines, communal bathing facilities, construction / repair of water sources, water trucking, water treatment / chlorination, distribution of hygiene kits Sample LFA, see annex 20 Activity sheets are in Annexes 21, 22 and 23. Concept paper Concept papers are in Annex 24. Contingency plan Philippines 5. Response planning 44/65

6. OVERALL MANAGEMENT AND COORDINATION / SOPs 17. Internal Coordination Emergency phases and trigger indicators The case for any emergency intervention will be based on the scale and impact of the disaster, supported by assessment reports and justification. Initial activities for a possible/imminent response will follow the triggers or in case of the scenario spells-out for an emergency response at the mission level. If preliminary decision is taken based on the initial data or monitoring, in coordination with HQ, to start with response activities, the CP will be activated and necessary management and coordination mechanism will be put in place. The management and coordination mechanism will depend on the scale of impact and recourses available at the time of the disaster. Adhoc measure and mechanisms will be considered or established based on the each situation/event at the mission level. Triggers/Indicator for possible emergency response To consider any response, the mission will consider triggers/indicator to assess and make initial decision for response. These triggers/indicators will have to assess in line with ACF mandate and scale/magnitude of the even/disaster. In general the any of the following triggers/indicators can be considered for the activation of CP, start-up activities and possible emergency response by ACF in the country. Events Trigger Indicator Following a The declaration of national state of disaster (natural calamity/ As per instructions of the or manmade) President and following ACF Province/City/region/municipality core Mandate declaration of calamity Province/City/region/municipality requests for assistance following an event/disaster Upon declaration of Code Blue by the DOH ; Drought/food shortage by DoA As directed by the NDCC Chairman or the NDCC Executive Officer UN-OCHA/Cluster Appeal or requested for assistance following an situation/event/disaster Significant deterioration in the covering of the basic needs that exceeds the reaction capacity of the most vulnerable people Clear definition of vulnerability situation Clear definition of the expected positive impact from our intervention: assistance and protection A thorough analysis about the available resources Upon validation and confirmation of any one of the above triggers, ACF shall start with declare possible response operation and commence activities at the mission level. Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 45/65

The decision will be taken in coordination with HQ, leaded by HoM. Figure 1. HQ level ER System activation process MISSION Emergency Pool MERT: MONITORIN Continues TRIGGER/ INDICATOR COORDINATION (CLUSTERS/ INGOs/UN/LGUs etc) VALIDATION YES: RESPONSE DECISION NO: RESPONSE CP activation Figure: CP activation process at mission level Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 46/65

The activation of the CP should be lead by the mission. The role of the Emergency Pool at this stage is providing technical assistance. Once the decision was made for the response/activation of CP, the request for external resources (*) (human, financial and/or material) to HQ will be decided. This decision will be based on the following and will be decided on ad-hoc and/or case-to-case basis: 1. Scale/magnitude of the event/disaster - Number Population affected/impacted - Geographic coverage of the impact 2. Mission capacity for response at the time of the disaster/impact - Possibility of implementing emergency activities versus on going workload of the mission at the time (other engagements/deadlines) 3. Funds availability at mission level for emergency response 4. Other stakeholders capacity and coverage areas by others 5. Added value of ACF intervening in emergency and coherence with the CP (*) If external resources are requested, the mission elaborates the Information and Recommendation Form (IRF), see attached document (Annex 25.IRF). IRF is the reference document used by HQ to make decisions. Final decisions on providing support will be made by HQ. The figure below shows the possibilities of engaging MERT and ER Pool in response at the mission level. In case the response is led by HQ ER Pool and MERT is not available to work with the HQ Pool, the DRR/CP coordinator of the mission should be involved and support the response from the beginning. The aim of this is to: - Capitalize the response/lessons learnt - Strategise follow-up response and programming after ER Pool - Facilitate coordination with stakeholders and Monitoring - Update CP - Ensure sustainability Figure. Overall process Triggers to Response Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 47/65

Management, Coordination and Response by Mission MERT The mission will take the responsibility over the entire response and coordination, under the lead of the HoM, supported by the coordinator (departments) and MERT. The DRR/CP coordinator will support the MERT response through monitoring and updating of the CP at the mission level. The monitoring and updating will continue beyond the emergency phase when situation normalise in the country level. The structure below shows the proposed MERT for the mission. Proposed Mission Emergency Response Team (MERT) HOM Coord FS Coord WASH/DRR Coord Admin Coord Log Coord Nut DRR/CP Coordinator HoP + 1 tech from each base HoP + 1 tech from each base HoP + 1 tech from each Base 1 ADMIN Support from each base Log Support from each base Figure: Mission Emergency Response Team Based on the assessment conducted by the during the CP designing, staff will be selected from each base to be part of the MERT member (based on experience/willingness) and trainings and coaching will be provided to enhance the mission internal capacity for emergency response. Primary role of the MERT to answer the missions needs immediately after an event/disaster. The period of engagement of MERT members in emergency will be decided ad-hoc basis and case-to-case basis depending on the evolution of the emergency situation. Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 48/65

MERT Role and Responsibility The responsibility of each departments during the emergency and different faces were identified as shown in the table below during the CP training workshop conducted by 16-20 August 2010 in Manila. Technical Departments Phase initial Phase* Assessment Implementation Post Emergency/response Responsibility Convene all MERT members Plan and delegate on-going project related activities (i.e., staffing) Orientation and levelling off on the situation Coordination with all stakeholders Pre-assessment/secondary data collection and analysis Tool (selection/methodology, process) Actual conduct of assessment (WASH/FS/Nut) Analysis, reporting, recommendation for intervention (including proposal) Coordination and sharing of information with stakeholders Ensure internal preparations and coordination with log and admin is complete Coordinate with stakeholders (LGUs, cluster etc..): orientation and agreement should be done when and when necessary Defining selection criteria; Barangay/beneficiary selection = participatory Distribution plannining: venue, schedules, security, visibility Sensitization (lobbying and advocacy) = vulnerable group/basic needs etc Actual response following the proposed activities Documentation Post Distribution/delivery Monitoring, Evaluation Reporting: Final and others Monitoring: coordinate with actors on response done, additional gaps, possible future intervention etc Support early recovery activities: Assessment and proposal writing Turn-over of facilities/equipments to stakeholders in coordination with logistic and mission Capitalization Linking emergency > recovery > development (integrating crosscutting issue) *Immediately after activation of CP Logistic Department Phase Rapid Assessment/Initial phase* Responsibility Assess market, security, accessibility, communication and transport Support logistic needs of the technical department (transport, equipments etc) Set-up of temporary office and arrangement of accommodation Reporting Monitoring the movement of the team Identification of procurements and procurements that needs Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 49/65

derogation (in coordination with technical department) Budgeting Logistic planning for response Mobilization log team Formulation of distribution plan in coordination with technical team (identify rule/flow etc.) Ensure of security of HR, equipments and goods Response Warehouse and store management Ensuring functionality, appropriateness and adequacy of equipments Procurement of identified needs Installation of office and equipments Visibility Reporting/archiving (documentation) Providing support o technical departments for possible rehabilitation/recovery phase Re-packaging and ensuring cleanliness and completeness of Post Emergency equipments and materials Identification of items for donation/actual donation Documentation of lessons learned/support to update CP (equipment list/supplier list/price list, stock list etc) *Immediately after activation of CP Admin Department Areas of work/support Responsibility Availability of funds Monitoring/tracking and reporting (budget/expenditures) Ensure proper financial procedures are followed Finance Ensure complete supporting documentation Obtaining authorization from proper signatories Request for funding from HQ/Donor Ensure sufficient number of MERT staff is established (in coordination with Technical and log department) Hiring of (additional) staff as required HR Ensuring contracting/hiring system in place Commitment to support ER 24/7 Contact MERT staff for deployment Attend MERT/coordination meeting as required Facilitate permits/licences to work/operate in the areas of intervention Admin Validate contracts/moa with partners/lgus and other relevant authorities *Immediately after activation of CP Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 50/65

Management, Coordination and Response by Mission MERT with EP deployed in the mission In case that the EP is deployed in the field, all members will be under the mission coordination team. Emergency Phases As response progress and need/gap are covered, the management, coordination and response strategy/planning need to be adjusted accordingly based on the field situation and supported by assessments/validations. The post (primary) emergency response situations are important for the mission to follow-up and develop necessary programs/projects to support the affected people. What has been done during the emergency phase is important make linkages and continuum with recovery/rehabilitation and development. The phase of the emergency management cycle is presented below. Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 51/65

Figure: Emergency Cycle Management HQ-Capitale-Field coordination schemes and timeline Normal mission coordination structure will be maintained during the response. The MERT members directly respond to their line managers on respective issues. Field level coordination led by the HoB or delegated by HoM for specific emergency. Field level external coordination (partners/lgus/clusters etc) should be led by HoB with the support of the HoP on technical issues. Capital level coordination will be lead by HoM with the support of Coordination team. The coordination between the field and capital will follow normal procedures, i.e., from field to line managers at the capital level. Capital to HQ will follow the procedures that are already in place or adjusted according to the needs and requirements. Coordination between different levels has to be followed through updating the Sitrep (Annex 26.Sitrep format) as long as the emergency situation continues. The time line for reporting will be defined at the activation of the CP or when response starts. Mission contact list See annex 2 for mission Contact List: Updated August 2010 Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 52/65

18. Implementation plan for each proposed response Emergency needs assessment How will humanitarian needs be assessed? The humanitarian need will be assessed by the MERT with or without the support of ER Pool. The available and agreed assessment Tools for each department (WASH Annex 27, /FS- Annex 29 /Nut- Annex 29 Nut tool not available with me Check with Oscar) will be used during the assessment. Based on the coordination arrangements with partner (PINGON) and UN (Clusters), assessment can be conducted alone by ACF or jointly with other stakeholders. Coverage for areas of assessment by ACF will depend on ACF policies and protocol (security) and will have to be agreed and approved by HoM prior to any commitment with other stakeholders in case of joint assessments. In case of joint assessments, the Tools to be used might slightly different but generally should cover all necessary information for sectoral planning/response. In additional, the length and detail of the activities will depend on the actual situation and impact of the disaster. The information/assessment results will be considered at the mission and HQ on the final decision on the intervention, resources mobilization and the management and coordination system to be put in place for the duration of the intervention. Figure: Need assessment structure Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 53/65

What methods will be used? What questionnaires? The need assessment to be conducted following a disaster can include different methods, both based on secondary data and through collection of primary data. The followings should be considered during need assessment: 1. Collection of secondary data and validation (NDCC/OCHA/Sitrep etc) 2. FGD and PRA assessment in the filed 3. Field observation 4. Images (satellites etc) For detail questions for WASH/FS/Nut: Pls Refer to Assessment Tools in annexes 27,28 and 29) Who will conduct the assessments? The trained MERT members are primary staff to be deployed for assessments. The composition of the assessment team should consist of the technical departments and when necessary (location/security) admin and log department will join the assessment team. What kind of logistical support will be necessary? For assessment purposes, the logistic requirement will depend on the location of the disaster (close to base of new area??). However, the followings need to be taken-into account or provided to the assessment team: - Identified transport means - Exploratory kit - Logistic staff roaster - Security updates - Maps - Communication means (satphones/cp/load) - First Aid Kit - Logistic forms/format - Etc... How will the results of emergency needs assessment be used to refine the contingency plan prior to implementation? The continued updating of the CP at the mission level will give on-time information to the mission on the available emergency stocks/supplies/item at the warehouse (see current emergency stock in warehouse in Annex 30). Based on the need assessment and availability of the materials in the stock, actual (balance) requirement for response can be calculated / defined. When gaps, necessary items will have to be procured to meet the demand and targets set by ACF for the response. After the emergency response, the stock/contingencies should be updated and ready for the next possible uses. Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 54/65

Targeting What targeting methods and criteria will be used (e.g. geographic, administrative, socio-economic)? Targeting response location and beneficiaries is a complex issue and have to be discussed in detail and agreed with other stakeholders in the area. This is the responsibility of the person in charge for coordination of the response in general. The selection of the geographical location could depend on the following factors: 1. Nature of hazard/risk 2. Whether ACF presence or not 3. Security context 4. Access (logistic/base distance) 5. Presence of other partners (few or many?) 6. Work experience of ACF in the areas 7. Local partners knowledge/capacity 8. Etc... In general, the experience of ACF in the country is the selection of the areas for response are coordinated and agreed with LGUs, Clusters and other partners in the field to prevent any duplication or overlapping in response. Furthermore, sectoral assistance also needs to be agreed with stakeholders/partners for ACF to facilitate smooth/easy response, e.g., WASH, FS or both. Targeting/Selection of Beneficiaries: Selection of the direct beneficiaries can be difficult (Ondoy experience) or easy (Mindanao experience) based on the nature of the impact/disaster. The selection of beneficiaries should take into account of: - Vulnerability/Exposure - Political context/dynamics at local level - Rights and dignity - Need/gaps - Availability of service and how to complement Who will implement this? The targeting or selection of areas for intervention and beneficiaries need close coordination with the stakeholder/lgus and affected people should be consulted as well. Once the response is identified, the implementation can take place through: - Directly by ACF - Local partner (if available and identified) - Through or jointly with clusters and other INGO - Through LGUs Partnership Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 55/65

What partnerships are needed to make the plan work? ACF has been working with different modalities with partners during the past emergencies, especially in Mindanao emergencies. These partnerships are more on ad-hoc and tailored based on the situation/emergency. The recent ACF initiative in Mapping, capacity building and assessing partners is expected to improve the ACF capacity to response in the near future. Other institutional partnership agreements (eg.: National WASH cluster member) could be used as an extended instruments in responding and using the resources effectively in emergency response. To date the engagement of partners by ACF in emergencies is in the form of hiring staff from partners (see annex 31 for MoA with partner). The possibilities for strong partnership is yet to be assessed and finalised as part of the mission s on-going efforts and integrated in the emergency response and CP. Partnerships for supplies/materials/transport/equipments: As part of the CP, regular items/requirements and suppliers should be identified and ideally pre-engagement contracts for service/supplies/equipments/works should be formalised. Securing and ensuring this is in advance and deploying it on-time could be difficult since the location of the impact or willingness/availability of items cannot be quartered 100% (too many agencies/suppliers affected/ not possibly logistically etc). The mission does not have experience in working with this kind of set-up. However, the following tools and arrangements can be help during the emergency: 1. List of suppliers and contact details for regular supplies (FS/WASH/NUT) See Annex 32- Mission Global contact list 2. Price List/catalogue of the Mission - see Annex 33. Price Catalogue 3. Standards are available (for WASH/Nut/FS) refer to SPHERE book 4. Sample of response items/supply What will the role of these partners be? The role and responsibility of partners in emergencies have to be determined case-tocase basis. The partner s involvement during emergencies can be: i. Support/participate in assessment ii. Organizing /mobilizing communities/affected people iii. Coordination with LGU/stakeholders in the field iv. Identification or areas of response and beneficiaries v. Logistic/security assessment support vi. Support/facilitate distributions With which partner working (response capacity assessment necessary) Detail assessment of partners yet to be conducted as part of the mission s on-going effort. Mindanao and Bicol based partners should be prioritised for assessment because of the hazards/vulnerabilities in the area. Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 56/65

Monitoring and evaluation What monitoring and evaluation indicators will be used? Monitoring and valuation should be put in place inline with the proposal and according to the intervention logic and Logical framework. The APR and Sitreps will be used as monitoring tool while specific tools will have to be developed for evaluation of the response; based on the nature/quantity of the response. In case of internal evaluation, ACF evaluation tool can directly be used. Other tools used for monitoring of the response are: - Post Distribution Tools (FS/NFI/WASH) See annex 34 - Sanitary survey tools (WASH) See Annex 35 - Distribution/construction report How will they be collected? M&E/Reports Frequency How APR Monthly HoPs to collect data and update from the field Sitrep Weekly HoPs to collect data and update from the field PDM As per request HoP and Field team to conduct surveys/fgds Hygiene promotion Impact On-going FGD and surveys assessment Sanitary survey tools On-going On spot checking and updating Distribution/construction On-going Based on deliveries/distribution report UN/other reports As available Through internet/cluster coordination Reporting What reports will be needed? The following reports are compulsory for Donor, Mission and HQ. The formats for the reporting are available (per donor) and should be maintained and used. - Donor report (Narrative Financial) As per contract - HQ reports (APR and others as requested by HQ) - Donor Updates (if requested by Donor) - Sitreps (as requested by Mission/HQ) - 4W (for UN/national agencies) - Update for Clusters and INGOs Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 57/65

How often will reports be required? Reports item Donor report (Narrative Financial) HQ reports - (APR and others as requested by HQ) Donor Updates Sitreps 4W Frequency As per contract As per ACF reporting procedures if requested by Donor as requested by Mission/HQ for UN/national agencies Update for Clusters and INGOs Based meeting planned/agreed schedules Update for LGUs Based on request/to be fixed at the beginning of response Logistics See annex 38. What logistic formats would be usefull ( assessment, security, base set up) What contingency stock is necessary to be set up before the emergency The contingency stock of the mission is primarily the hardware materials (for WASH). Food items/supplies that are easily to be spoiled or with less duration of expiry period should be procured based on the situation or pre-arrangements need to be ensure with suppliers (decision on this depend on many factors!!!). Generally WASH items (hardware) can be stocked and maintained for a long period as part of the CP or prepositioning. The table below shows the WASH items that can are now in the country, being set-up and maintained by the mission. In Annexe 30.Emergency Stock in Philippine Warehouse there is a list of available materials. Items Quantity Remarks Bladders 10 See Annexe 30 for details Onion 4 See Annexe 30 for details Water Pumps 10 See Annexe 30 for details Dewatering pumps 1 See Annexe 30 for details Pipes and fitting 2 X 100m flat hose 2 Water Horse Tapstand kit 17 Also ACF has a WASH Emergency Stock, located in Barcelona, and available for the mission if needed. The list of materials inside this stock is listed in Annexe 36 The procedure to use any of both emergency stocks is to receive the validation from Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 58/65

AECID (donor funding those stocks) justifying the necessity of this material by sending an IRF. Security Please refer to Annex 37 for Security plan at the mission level. How will security be monitored and managed? What kind of security measures must be put in place? How will security measures impact on our ability to implement the plan? What happens if staff are evacuated? Are security plans compatible with contingency plans? Coordination What coordination will be necessary for the implementation of this operation? The necessary coordination (local/national) during the emergency as follows: Internal: - Overall response coordination - Coordination between Mission/HQ/Base - Technical coordination - Security/log issues - Admin/finance and HR issues External: - Coordination with LGUs/Gov agencies - Coordination with UN/Cluster/INGOs etc - Coordination with Donor - Media/press releases Which coordination bodies will need to be set up? The Mission level coordination mechanism or EP coordination protocol to be used. Refer to the Mission and EP organization and coordination structure. No need for establishing new coordination bodies. What coordination will be required with national and local authorities? Different government agencies and departments are responsible during emergency. For illustration of government agencies role/responsibility, we adopt the recent UNWFP experience as outlined below. Please note this set-up might changes based on the new DRM bill and its IRR and need to be revised during CP revisions. Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 59/65

Coordination at different level has to be established and ensured during the response period. The illustration below shows the recent experience from UNWFP during typhoon ondoy and can be adopted during future emergencies. Please Note that some structure, like DCCs, are not active or established in all areas in the Philippines. Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 60/65

Donors Which donors will be targeted? ACF has a well established contact with number of Donors; through different agreement/modalities (FPA/AECID/ others?). Donors usually targeted are: - ECHO - GENVAL - USAID (??) - UN (through cluster: CAP/FLASH APPEAL etc) - AECID /ACCD/ Caja Madrid (funds managed by HQ) Emergency Kit Kit log admin Kit Log V3 Chapter Log and Admin in emergency (Annex 38) 19. External Communication Communication protocols Communication protocol is to follow the ACF communication guideline and/or Mission level protocol to put place. External communications requires prior approval from HoM Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 61/65

in advance and the content and message should be discussed. Using visibility and references to Donor in external communications might need donor approval. Not applicable at this stage Media strategy, Press release N/A Local authorities N/A: Will depend on where disaster occures Contact list See annex: 32 Contingency plan Philippines 6. Management and coordination 62/65

7. CAPACITY BUILDING AND CP FOLLOW UP 20. Gaps identification ACF response Capacity Assessment and Mission Training Plan As part of CP design, ACF conducted a capacity assessment at ACF mission level, except for Tandag base through SWOT analysis. The assessment result of different staff capacity per base at ACF Philippine mission is presented below. Table 1. Potential Emergency capacity requirement vs staff capacity Potential emergency needs Staff with training Staff with % Classification % Classification experience Immediate needs Search and rescue 4 11 low 8 21 low First aid 27 71 high 11 29 low Emergency evacuation 10 26 low 13 34 medium Water and sanitation needs Distribution, storage, processing Rehabilitation/development of alternative sources 12 32 low 12 32 low 10 26 low 20 53 medium Disposal of excreta 12 32 low 13 34 medium Disposal of garbage 20 53 medium 25 66 medium Personal hygiene 20 53 medium 27 71 high Insect and rodent control 15 39 medium 19 50 medium Food and nutritional needs Short-term distribution 14 37 medium 24 63 medium Long-term distribution 9 24 low 18 47 medium Supplementary/curative 6 16 low 8 21 low feeding Agriculture 17 45 medium 18 47 medium Nutritional monitoring 7 18 low 12 32 low Shelter needs Emergency Shelter 8 21 low 14 37 medium Buildings/structures 5 13 low 13 34 medium NFI distribution 13 34 medium 23 61 medium Safety and security needs Well-being 6 16 low 20 53 medium Safety of beneficiaries 9 24 low 17 45 medium Safety of Staff 18 47 medium 21 55 medium Contingency plan Philippines 7. Capacity building and follow up 63/65

Control of violence 7 18 low 12 32 low Control of abuse of power 7 18 low 5 13 low Others Rapid assessment 24 63 medium 28 74 high Integrated monitoring and 15 39 medium 27 71 high evaluation SPHERE standards 15 39 medium 16 42 medium Community preparedness planning 17 45 medium 20 53 medium Community risk reduction 14 37 medium 16 42 medium HR (training plan) Based on the assessment result the will plan and provide trainings to ACF staff to improve their response capacity in various core sectors and within ACF mandate. As starting point, ACF already conducted 5 days CP training during 16-20 August 2010 for core ACF staff in Manila. For other training planned at the mission level please refer to the annex 13a. Mission Training Plan. Material (purchase plan) Required material for trainings not yet identified. This is mainly due to that fact that some of the trainings are to be conducted on-job or through coaching and others are yet to be finalised, based on availability of training/resources. Funds (pre agreements) Refer to Mision training plan of 2010 Formats (questionnaires, Kit admin log ER, etc ) 21. Capacity building Description of capacity building activities to be implemented related to each phase of the emergency (mainly training, assessment kit purchase, contingency stock, etc..) This will be implemented as per identified weakness or areas of capacity improvement required during the SOWT analysis. Refer to table 1 above. 22. Preparedness plan budget Budget required for capacity building, training and contingency material Refer to Mission training plan, need to be updated soon. Contingency plan Philippines 7. Capacity building and follow up 64/65

23. Contingency Plan update and follow up Update frequency and responsibilities by position Every 3 months Contingency plan Philippines 7. Capacity building and follow up 65/65