Formerly J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting Global Light Vehicle Overview Prepared for Standard & Poor s October 2012 Volker Krueger Director LMC Automotive www.lmc auto.com 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Outline Current Global Environment European Economy Challenges, Winners and Losers Scenarios 2 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Global Economic Growth Real GDP Growth 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2% 3% Source: Oxford Economics 3 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
2011 Global Light Vehicle Sales Growth Global: 76.8M 4.3% N. America: 15.2M 9.3% Europe: 19.0 M 4.4% S. America: 5.2M 9.6% Asia: 30.4M 1.3% Russia: 2.6M 39% USA: 12.7M 10% Germany: 3.4M 9% Japan: 4.1M 15% China: 18.0M 5% India: 2.9M 7% Asean: 2.4M 4% Brazil: 3.5M 4% Source: LMC Automotive 4 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Global Light Vehicle Sales Trend Strong 2012 so far 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Millions 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: LMC Automotive 5 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Monthly (SAAR) Smoothed Annual Total LMC Automotive
2012 Global Light Vehicle Sales Growth Global: 81.0M 5.5% N. America: 17.0M 11.3% Europe: 17.9M 5.4% S. America: 5.1M 1.7% Asia: 33.6M 10.7% Russia: 2.9M 8% USA: 14.3M 12% Japan: 5.1M 23% China: 19.3M 7% India: 3.2M 10% Asean: 3.0M 30% Brazil: 3.5M 0% Source: LMC Automotive 6 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Global Light Vehicle Sales Trend Market to break through the 100 million barrier by mid decade, almost doubling in size since the end of the 1990s. Emerging markets, led by China, India, Brazil and Russia, have driven much of the recent growth and are expected to remain key drivers to future growth. Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 105 100 93 85 81 98 90 57 57 57 59 62 64 67 70 74 77 80 80 75 67 65 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Risk Source: LMC Automotive 7 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Global Production by Region Light vehicle production growth in Asia is expected to significantly outpace the other regions, despite sourcing changes which will see some Asian OEMs increase output outside of Asia. Share of Asian output to increase from 48% of global production in 2011 to 53% by 2016. Light Vehicle Production (Millions) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Africa/M.E. Asia Europe North America South America 6.3 5.9 5.5 17.3 5.1 17.0 4.3 16.3 4.2 4.3 15.4 14.9 23.4 11.8 13.1 22.4 21.1 19.9 19.2 19.2 20.5 36.9 36.7 40.8 44.6 49.0 52.5 55.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2.4 2.6 2.8 Why 53% and not 56% Source: LMC Automotive 8 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Outline Current Global Environment European Economy Challenges, Winners and Losers Scenarios 9 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
UK Recoveries from Recession 8% 6% Real GDP, Relative to Pre Recession Level 4% 1990 1993 2% 0% 1973 1976 Great Depression 1930 34 2% 1979 1983 4% 6% 2008???? 10% 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 Source: NIESR Months Elapsed Since Onset of Recession 10 8% 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Major Developed Economies 10% Real GDP Growth 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Japan USA W Europe Source: Oxford Economics 11 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Outline Current Global Environment European Economy Challenges, Winners and Losers Scenarios 12 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
13 European Consumer Confidence 5 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-5 -10-15 -20-25 -30-35 -40 Source: European Commission 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
14 German Consumer Confidence 20 15 10 5 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-5 -10-15 -20-25 -30-35 -40 Source: European Commission 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
German Car Market Sales Volume (mn) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 +9% 1% 23% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ave. 00 07 3.3 mn Year to date, registrations down 0.6% German unemployment lowest for 20 years But consumer confidence has deteriorated from last year. Source: LMC Automotive 15 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Spanish Car Market Sales Volume (mn) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 +3% 18% 11% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ave. 00 07 1.54 mn Source: LMC Automotive 16 Selling rate at around 0.73 mn units/year Confidence and economy dragged down by the scale of unemployment Will not return to 1.6 mn units/year rate this decade. 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Italian Car Market Sales Volume (mn) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 9% 11% 20% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ave. 00 07 2.37 mn Selling rate at just 1.3 mn units/year in recent months Tight credit conditions, fiscal austerity measures and climbing unemployment will continue to act as a drag next year. Source: LMC Automotive 17 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Car Sales in Western Europe 17 Millions 16 10+ year recovery 15 5 year recovery 14 13 12 11 10 9 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SAAR Moving Average Forecast Annual Source: LMC Automotive 18 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Volume Brands Under Siege 90% West European Car Market Share 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Economy Volume Premium 20% 10% 0% Source: LMC Automotive 1996 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2015 19 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Europe s Volume Brands Under Siege 90% Share of Total Volume Brand Sales Only by Brand Origin 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Brand Origin* E. Europe W. Europe North America Japan Korea * Note: Ford included as European brand (because of longevity in market); Opel included; Skoda East European. Source: LMC Automotive 1996 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2015 20 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
A Decade of Competitive Erosion 21 The consequences of Market Erosion: Source: LMC Automotive Catastrophic decline in W. European volume brand sales A need for geographical diversification Intense competition requires model proliferation Structural overcapacity 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Millions Car Sales, W. Eur, W. Eur Volume Brands 10 9 8 35% 7 6 5 9.9 4 3 6.4 2 1 0 2000 2012 LMC Automotive
European Production Recession 40 2009 2010 2011 2012 30 % change yoy 20 10 0 10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 20 30 22 40 Source: LMC Automotive 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
European Stocks OK at High Level Volume Change (000s) 400 2009 2010 2011 2012 200 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 200 400 600 23 800 Source: LMC Automotive 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Major European OEMs Stock estimates: initial results Days Supply 80 Benchmark 70 60 50 40 30 24 Brand A 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E Brand F Brand G Brand H LMC Automotive
Outline Current Global Environment European Economy Challenges, Winners and Losers Scenarios 25 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
26Political stress Downside risks remain significant US fiscal cliff Stalemate in the House would imply much larger fiscal tightening than in baseline (up to 3.5% of GDP in fiscal year 2013) Business and consumer confidence negatively affected Additional QE and weaker US$ to provide only partial offsets Trade and financial linkages lead to global slowdown Oxford forecast Eurozone avoids breakup. ECB and governments take significant steps taken to ensure Eurozone survival Risk premia fall, and consumer and business confidence gradually recover Recovery limited by high debt, weak job growth and fiscal retrenchment EMs robust as policy eases and growing middle class support consumer spending and trade 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Corporate stress Multiple Eurozone exits Fiscal austerity in Greece becomes unbearable; government falls, defaulting on all external debt Financial contagion spreads Run on banks in peripherals leading to credit crunch Cyprus, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland also forced out of the Eurozone China hard landing Commercial property crash & external weakness leads to banking sector stress Flight from risk leads to falling share & property prices Investment slumps in China as government recapitalises banks Asian supply chain affected as domestic engine of growth stalls Source: Oxford Economics LMC Automotive
Eurozone break up scenario Eurozone*: GDP % year 6 Forecast 4 Baseline 2 0-2 -4-6 Multiple exits -8 * Remaining countries -10 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics 27 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Scenarios for W. Europe Car Market Base Case Greek Exit Multiple Exit Sales Volume (mn) 13 12 11 10 Risk: 2.5+ mn 2011 TIV 12.8 mn 9 2013 2014 Source: LMC Automotive 28 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Concluding Remarks It is not likely that the planned/announced actions by Europe s OEMs will be sufficient to address the structural overcapacity. Stock problems of 2008/2009 are not being repeated, for most. Fiat, PSA, Renault, Ford and GM are all under pressure. Not clear how EU can help significantly (as Mr Marchionne as suggested) while the capacity problem is focused on only part of the European industry. Watch for: Eurozone crisis developments (obvious), China slowdown (Premiums), further model slippage or cancellation, big decisions on European strategy by volume OEMs (speculative, but distinct possibility). 29 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
vkrueger@lmcauto.com Accurate Real Time Automotive Forecasting and Market Intelligence 30 2012 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. LMC Automotive
Automotive Seminar & Live Webcast London Corporate Ratings 11 th October 2012 Copyright 2011 Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Heavy Duty Truck Makers Volatile Demand Flexibility Demanded Michael Andersson Director Corporate Ratings 11 th October 2012 Copyright 2011 Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ranking Table - Rated Truck Makers Company Ranking Ratings GLOBAL TRUCK MAKERS Business Risk Profile Financial Risk Profile PACCAR Inc. 1 A+/Stable/A-1 Satisfactory Minimal Scania AB* 2 A-/Positive/A-2 Satisfactory Modest MAN SE* 3 A-/Positive/A-2 Satisfactory Modest AB Volvo 4 BBB/Stable/A-2 Satisfactory Intermediate Navistar International 5 B/Negative/-- Weak Highly Leveraged Daimler AG A-/Stable/A-2 Satisfactory Modest Fiat Industrial SpA BB+/Stable/B Satisfactory Significant *Scania and MAN ratings equalised with VW 3.
Continued slowdown, but no crash, expected in 2012 and 2013 All markets showing signs of slowdown, however no 2008/2009 repeat expected European and North American markets at normalised leveles European slowdown in line with general economic weakening From manageable levels, demand, inventories and production in balance, however the North/South divide is deepening creating worries about Southern weakness spreading north of the Alps North American market slowing, somewhat surprising, on future worries Despite huge replacement demand and healthy fundamentals Brazil downturn expected due to new emission standards How deep and how long will the slump be is an increasingly uncertain question coming from very high levels the last couple of years Lower debt levels and improved cost structure support ratings All companies have stated improved flexilibilty after Lehman, this will now be put to the test No major rating changes for investment graded names expected in the near term Rating actions in 2012 Scania and MAN outlook raised following same action on parent VW Navistar rating lowered on company specific problems 4.
Heavy trucks A roller coaster ride demanding flexibility from OEMs *Source: EU, ACEA, ACT, FTR, Truck OEMs 5.
Europe Modest decline in total order intake, but North-South divide increasing Volvo Group European order intake *Order intake for European business of Scania, Volvo, Daimler, MAN 6.
US - Order intake turning negative again despite high replacement needs Source: ACT,FTR,Bloomberg 7.
Margins deteriorating - Flexible production and pricing discipline key *Global EBIT margins of commercial vehicle unit 8.
Solid credit metrics fo IG names, but headroom needed Column1 AB Volvo MAN SE Scania AB PACCAR Inc. Daimler AG Navistar Fiat Industrial Rating as of Oct. 4, 2012 BBB/Stable/A-2 A-/Positive/A-2 A-/Positive/A-2 A+/Stable/A-1 A-/Stable/A-2 B/Negative/-- BB+/Stable/B --Fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2011-- (Mil. ) Revenues 33 878,4 16 472,0 9 853,5 11 805,3 94 460,0 9 797,7 22 982,0 EBITDA 3 853,4 1 458,6 1 587,6 1 294,4 9 473,4 783,4 1 806,8 Net income from cont. oper. 1 994,7 679,0 1 058,8 802,9 5 667,0 1 235,2 624,0 Funds from operations (FFO) 3 224,6 1 311,8 1 450,4 1 077,3 9 433,0 695,2 1 332,4 Capital expenditures 1 162,2 580,7 517,6 279,4 4 673,5 405,0 631,3 Free operating cash flow 1 921,4 260,1 665,8 541,9 2 442,5 340,9 1 183,1 Discretionary cash flow 1 351,6 (36,9) 216,3 374,5 193,5 340,9 1 175,1 Cash and short-term investments 860,0 320,0 106,5 2 323,8 2 997,0 901,1 2 153,0 Debt 4 266,4 1 329,6 0,0 169,6 6 074,9 3 247,9 6 694,0 Equity 7 555,0 5 287,3 3 286,8 2 431,7 31 128,6 (176,3) 3 905,5 Adjusted ratios EBITDA margin (%) 11,4 8,9 16,1 11,0 10,0 8,0 7,9 EBITDA interest coverage (x) 10,1 6,3 36,2 67,0 13,8 6,5 2,5 EBIT interest coverage (x) 7,7 4,9 31,7 59,0 11,6 5,0 1,9 Return on capital (%) 24,4 14,9 43,6 44,6 22,5 24,1 12,2 FFO/debt (%) 75,6 98,7 N.M. 636,5 155,3 21,4 19,9 Free operating cash flow/debt (%) 45,1 19,6 N.M. 321,3 40,2 10,5 17,7 Debt/EBITDA (x) 1,1 0,9 0,0 0,1 0,6 4,1 3,7 Total debt/debt plus equity (%) 36,1 20,1 0,0 6,5 16,3 105,7 63,2 --Average of past three fiscal years-- EBITDA margin (%) 7,5 8,0 14,9 10,1 8,1 8,0 EBITDA interest coverage (x) 5,0 5,2 16,2 40,4 6,9 4,4 EBIT interest coverage (x) 2,5 3,6 13,0 26,3 4,7 3,6 Return on capital (%) 8,7 10,6 31,3 21,1 12,8 28,3 FFO/debt (%) 33,0 56,2 285,1 738,6 92,5 22,3 Free operating cash flow/debt (%) 19,2 44,4 207,7 732,3 56,3 26,1 Debt/EBITDA (x) 2,4 1,4 0,3 0,1 1,0 4,3 Total debt/debt plus equity (%) 43,0 23,1 12,5 3,8 18,8 138,7 Source: S&P 9.
Appendix 10.
Company Focus Scania (publ), AB A- /Positive/A-2 (a- SACP) Business Satisfactory Financials Modest Rating leeway Key Strengths Leading market positions in Europe and South America in heavy trucks and buses Up-to-date product range and the highest degree of component commonality in the global truck industry A conservative financial policy and a modest financial risk profile, very strong profitability relative to peers' Key Weaknesses Operations within industries characterized by high volatility and high capital intensity Risk from sizable operations in economically and politically unstable regions (Latin America) Low High Short-Term Dev Stable Outlook Softening order intake Outlook linked to Volkswagen Brazil somewhat worrying Strong net cash posh Declining but still high profitability and cash generation 11.
Company Focus MAN SE A-/Positive/A-2 (bbb+ SACP) Business Satisfactory Financials Modest Rating leeway Key Strengths Strong market positions in commercial vehicles in Europe and South America Leading market positions in diesel engines Diversification supported by business units prone to different economic cycles Short-Term Credit Factors Key Weaknesses Operations within industries characterized by high volatility, cyclicality, and capital intensity Structural problems within the bus industry Mature and competitive markets High fixed-cost base for some operations Positive Outlook Low High Weak H1 2012 on lower demand and competitive pressure Outlook linked to Volkswagen Brazil somewhat worrying Power Engineering remain stable 12.
Company Focus Volvo (publ), AB BBB /Stable/A-2 Business Satisfactory Financials Intermediate Key Strengths Leading market positions w/w in heavy CV, buses, and construction equipment Broad geographic diversity and up-to-date product line Strong liquidity, also in economic downturns Key Weaknesses Highly volatile, cyclical and capital intensive industry High operational gearing Large historical swings in profitability Rating leeway Short-Term Development Stable Outlook Low High Softening order intake (Weak US order intake surprising) Performing above ratios commensurate with rating Strong liquidity FFO/Debt > 35% Solid profitability and cash flow Debt /EBITDA < 3x expected in 2012 13.
US/EU market shares, US truck age, Iveco EU inventories 14.
S&P s Views On The State Of The Japanese and Asian Auto Sectors Osamu Kobayashi Director Corporate Ratings 11 th October 2012 Copyright 2011 Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Corporate Ratings Criteria Summary Business Risk Country risk Industry risk Competitive position Profitability/Peer group comparisons Financial Risk Accounting Financial governance and policies/risk tolerance Cash flow adequacy Capital structure/asset protection Liquidity 16.
Corporate Ratings: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix 17.
Ranking Table - Rated Automakers October 2012 Company Ranking Ratings GLOBAL AUTOMAKERS Business Risk Profile Financial Risk Profile Toyota Motor Corp. 1 AA-/Negative/A-1+ Strong Minimal Honda Motor Co. Ltd. 2 A+/Stable/A-1 Strong Modest BMW AG 3 A/Stable/A-1 Strong Modest Volkswagen AG 4 A-/Positive/A-2 Strong Modest Daimler AG 5 A-/Stable/A-2 Satisfactory Modest Hyundai Motor Co. 6 BBB+/Stable/-- Satisfactory Modest Nissan Motor Co. Ltd 7 BBB+/Stable/A-2 Satisfactory Intermediate Kia Motors Corp. 8 BBB+/Stable/-- Satisfactory Intermediate Ford Motor Co. 9 BB+/Positive/ Fair Significant Renault S.A. 10 BB+/Stable/B Fair Intermediate 18.
Ranking Table - Rated Automakers October 2012 Company Ranking Ratings GLOBAL AUTOMAKERS Business Risk Profile Financial Risk Profile General Motors Co. 11 BB+/Stable/-- Fair Significant Tata Motors Ltd. 12 BB/Positive/-- Fair Significant Peugeot S.A. 13 BB/Negative/B Fair Significant Jaguar Land Rover Plc 14 BB-/Positive/-- Fair Significant Fiat Spa 15 BB-/Stable/B Fair Aggressive Chrysler Group LLC 16 B+/Stable/-- Weak Aggressive Mitsubishi Motors Co. 17 B+/Stable/-- Weak Aggressive Aston Martin Holdings (UK) Ltd. 18 B+/Negative/-- Fair Aggressive 19.
Ranking Table - Rated Auto and Truck Makers October 2012 Company Ranking Ratings GLOBAL TRUCKMAKERS Business Risk Profile Financial Risk Profile PACCAR Inc. 1 A+/Stable/A-1 Satisfactory Minimal Scandia (pub.) AB 2 A-/Positive/A-2 Satisfactory Modest MAN SE 3 A-/Positive/A-2 Satisfactory Modest Volvo pub AB 4 BBB/Stable/A-2 Satisfactory Intermediate Navistar International Corp. 5 B/Negative/-- Weak Highly Leveraged 20.
Global Automaker Outlook Progression And Distribution Outlook Distribution: July 2009 - October 2012 21.
Asian Auto Sector - Our View October 2012 Japanese automakers are on recovery path from supply chain disruptions of 2011 Japanese automakers and suppliers suffered from East Japan Earthquake and Thai floods in 2011 Market share losses occurred on less inventory Strong yen added pressures on profitability Recovering outputs and sales are supporting the results of many automakers and suppliers Korean automakers (Hyundai & Kia) continue to grow and improve position and profitability Success in fundamentally enhancing product quality and brands and advancing global marketing capability Some modest additional share gains while Japanese automakers suffered from supply chain disruptions Economic uncertainty remains the key variable globally Consumer confidence remains fragile Europe is headed for fifth consecutive year of registration decline; 2013 could be sixth year China is slowing, but how much and for how long? Worsening Japan-China diplomatic ties amid a territorial dispute may put another burden on Japanese automakers Rating outlook is stable for most Asian automakers, but outlook on Toyota remains negative Honda shows strong recovery in 2012 and Nissan continues to show robust performance Ratings on Hyundai and Kia were upgraded to BBB+/Stable in March 2012 Outlook on Tata is positive based on our expectation that Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Tata s key subsidiary, will sustain its solid operating performance Outlook on Toyota remain negative because Toyota s overproduction in Japan has the potential to delay a recovery in its earnings 22.
Japanese Automakers - Challenges October 2012 Long-term decline in domestic demand and strong Japanese yen remain key challenges Domestic demand shows long-term decline since the peak in 1996 Total domestic sales during the first 8 months jumped 46% and we expect domestic demand recovers to 5 million units in 2012, but slowdown is anticipated after October as eco-car subsidies program ended Strong Japanese yen continues to add pressure on profitability Japanese yen appreciated more than 30% against US Dollar in the past 5 years (15% in the past 3 years) Around 40% appreciation against Euro in the past five years (25% in the past 3 years) Further expansion of overseas production and overseas procurement To minimize the effect of unfavorable exchange rates and declining domestic demand Overcapacity/ overproduction in Japan remain a major challenge Maintaining particularly strong position in ASEAN (Association of SouthEast Asian Nations) countries Can they maintain their leading positions in HV, PHV, and EV? Uncertainties in China China is slowing, but how much and for how long? Worsening Japan-China diplomatic ties amid a territorial dispute may put another burden on Japanese automakers 23.
Summary Of 2012 Regional Demand Outlook Region 2012 Estimate Comment and source U.S. 14.2 million light-vehicle sales First-eight months (SAAR) was 14.2 million. 2013 Recession case is 12.9 million (S&P estimates) Europe European passenger vehicle registrations down at least 7% Down 6.8% for first six months 2012 (EU27). But registration % change varies widely by country--flat or up in some and down sharply in others. (S&P estimates, ACEA and LMC Automotive Ltd.) Japan Passenger vehicles rise 12%- 19% We expect improved supply conditions and the government's new eco-car subsidy program to boost new vehicle sales and recovery from 2011 supply disruption events. (S&P estimates) Brazil China India Passenger vehicles rise single digit % Passenger vehicles rise single digit % Low single digit % for passenger vehicles Brazilian economic growth and currency levels are key. Tariffs and prospective capacity additions pressure OEs even if sales do rise. (S&P estimates and LMC) Slower-than-expected growth than in recent years; growth will likely vary by sector - luxury versus domestic automakers for example. (S&P estimates and LMC) Passenger car market grew 2.2% in fiscal March 2012, due to multiple hikes in fuel prices and high interest rates. Car sales in India fell for the first time in 10 months in August 2012 (S&P estimates and SIAM) 24.
Japan Sales Should Recover in 2012 Annual New Car Sales in Japan (Unit) Source: Standard & Poor s based on data from Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association 25.
Japan Strong Yen Continues to Add Pressure on Profits Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar and Euro (in Yen) Source: Standard & Poor s 26.
Japan Further Expands Overseas Productions Global Production by Japanese Automakers (Unit) Source: Standard & Poor s based on data from Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association 27.
U.S. Important Market for Japanese & Korean Automakers U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (thousands) 2000-2009 - 40% 1978-1982 -31% OPEC II 1988-1991 -20% Gulf War 2008-2012 +8% 1955-1958 -35% 1973-1975 -23% OPEC I 2003: 16.6 million 2004: 16.9 million 2005: 16.9 million 2006: 16.5 million 2007: 16.1 million 2008: 13.2 million 2009: 10.4 million 2010: 11.6 million 2011: 12.7 million 2012: 14.2 million (e) 2013: 14.8 million (e) Source: Ward s AutoInfoBank 28.
U.S. Demand Recovering U.S. Light Vehicle SAAR Trend By Month Cash for clunkers Source: Ward s AutoInfoBank 29.
U.S. Light Vehicle Market Share: Top 4 Automakers (%) 35.0 GM Chrysler Ford Toyota 30.0 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.3 27.6 26.3 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 23.9 14.5 9.3 22.9 21.3 20.7 19.4 13.3 13.1 12.8 13.1 12.1 11.2 10.1 10.4 18.3 13.6 13.3 24.6 17.3 15.4 13.0 23.8 16.3 15.1 12.9 22.4 19.9 16.8 17.0 15.9 14.7 11.0 8.9 19.1 16.5 15.2 9.4 19.7 16.6 12.9 10.7 18.2 15.4 14.5 11.4 5.0 0.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12* Source: Ward s AutoInfoBank * 2012 data updated for YTD August 30.
U.S. Light Vehicle Market Share: Next Tier Competitors (%) 12.0 Honda Hyundai Nissan Kia 10.8 11.1 10.7 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 6.6 4.3 1.4 0.9 9.6 9.1 8.6 8.2 8.1 7.4 7.0 7.2 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 7.4 4.2 2.9 7.8 4.7 3.1 9.8 9.0 8.2 8.0 5.1 5.0 4.0 3.8 0.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12* Source: Ward s AutoInfoBank * 2012 data updated for YTD August 31.
China Auto sales shows a low single-digit growth In 2009, Chinese auto market became the world #1 with 13.64 million units 32.
China Market Shares 18.0% 14.0% 16.0% 12.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Japanese 3 Detroit 3 Hyundai + Kia German 3 Toyota Honda Nissan Hyundai VW GM 33.
China Slow Down and Territorial Dispute with Japan Hard landing (5% GDP Growth) impact for Asian automakers Hard landing could impact ratings if lasts two years Hyundai and Nissan have relatively large China exposure currently Contagion effect of China hard landing excluded For Japanese Automakers, more risks and uncertainties Worsening Japan-China diplomatic ties amid a territorial dispute is putting another burden on Japanese automakers We view Japanese automakers are capable of absorbing the negative impact without significant damage to their creditworthiness Prolonged political confrontation may hurt Japan's macro economy and affect the credit quality of rated Japanese automakers 34.
Japanese and Asian Automakers 35.
Summary Of Four Rated Japanese Automakers Toyota is AA- / Negative. The negative outlook reflects our view: Toyota s overproduction in Japan has the potential to delay a recovery in its earnings Toyota continues to face adverse currency rates impacts Honda is A+ / Stable Strong recovery prospects in sales and profits over the next two years Honda solidly maintains its conservative financial policy and modest financial risk profile Nissan is BBB+ / Stable Robust financial performance expected in the next few years Renault s credit quality constraints upside potential in Nissan s ratings. Mitsubishi is B+ / Stable Gradual recovery in profitability expected over the next one to two years Strong position in ASEAN markets and cost reduction to support gradual improvement All four companies to show recovery in profits in 2012 Recovery in sales and continuous cost reductions support expectations for sustained profits Increasing production/procurement in vehicles produced overseas to gradually reduce exposures to Japanese Yen 36.
Summary Of Three Rated Asian (non-japan) Automakers Hyundai is BBB+ / Stable The rating was upgraded from BBB/Positive in March 2012 We expect that Hyundai will continue to maintain market position and profitability despite increasing competition In the first half of 2012, Hyundai increased its unit sales by 8% year-on-year Kia is BBB+ / Stable We equalize ratings on Kia and Hyundai, reflecting Kia s close relationship with, and expected strong support from, parent company (Hyundai) We expect that Kia will continue to maintain market position and profitability despite increasing competition In the first half of 2012, Kia increased its unit sales by 12% year-on-year Tata is BB / Positive. The positive outlook reflects our view: Tata will sustain its operating performance and maintain its debt protection measures despite an increase in engineering and product development expenditure at Tata fully owned subsidiary JLR (BB- /Positive/-) Tata s business risk profile is supported by JLR's improving competitive position and Tata s dominant position in the Indian commercial vehicle market 37.
Supply Chain Risk: Takeaways From 2011-2012 The earthquake in Japan and floods in Thailand affected our ratings outlook on Japanese automakers and suppliers in 2011. Supply disruptions impaired some operations in 1H of fiscal 2011 Market share losses occurred on less inventory Some modest share gains for non-japanese automakers Market shares of Japanese automakers are recovering in the U.S., etc. Events in Japan and Thailand did not affect our ratings or outlooks on any of the non-japanese automakers or suppliers. Supply chain disruptions need to be watched! No widespread changes to the supply chain yet? But automakers should have better visibility into supply chain More dual sourcing or qualifying new suppliers? Costly! 38.
Asian Auto Suppliers 39.
Asia-Based Auto Suppliers Many companies are affiliated with large automakers (such as Toyota Motor and Hyundai Motor) Limited universe when compared with the U.S. Denso, Aisin Seiki and Toyota Industries: More than 50% of sales rely on Toyota Motor and its group companies Hyundai Mobis: 80% - 90% of its auto parts modules sales rely on Hyundai Motor/Kia Motors Majority of corporate credit ratings are in the investment grade, but high reliance on parent /group is one of constraining factors for Toyota and Hyundai group suppliers Economic uncertainty remains; historical challenges (production volatility) will return 40.