i C O N T E N T S Page LIST OF TABLES... iii LIST OF FIGURES... v PREFACE... vii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 1.1 INTRODUCTION... 1 1.2 RATIONALE FOR METHODOLOGY... 2 1.3 MACROECONOMIC FORECAST... 4 1.4 INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC RISKS THAT CAN INFLUENCE THE FORECAST... 5 1.5 CONCLUSION... 7 CHAPTER 2: RETAIL TRADE SALES ANALYSES 2.1 INTRODUCTION... 8 2.2 RETAIL SALES PATTERNS BY OUTLET... 11 2.3 SEASONAL PATTERNS BY TYPE OF RETAIL OUTLET... 18 2.4 METHOD OF PAYMENT... 20 2.5 RETAIL SALES GROWTH TRENDS... 22 2.5.1 Retail trade sales growth by type of outlet... 24 2.6 CONCLUSION... 26 CHAPTER 3: RETAIL TRADE SALES FORECAST FOR 2015 3.1 INTRODUCTION... 28 3.2 RETAIL SALES FORECAST BY RETAIL OUTLET... 28 3.3 FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FORECAST BY PRODUCT GROUP... 30 3.4 RETAIL TRADE SALES FORECAST BY PRODUCT GROUP... 35
ii 3.5 CONCLUSION... 39 CHAPTER 4: OVERVIEW AND CONCLUDING REMARKS 4.1 OVERVIEW... 40 4.2 CONCLUDING REMARKS... 42 BIBLIOGRAPHY... 44
iii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1.1 KEY MACROECONOMIC FORERCAST RESULTS (% GROWTH)...... 5 2.1 MARKET SHARES OF RETAIL OUTLETS, 2005 2014 (CURRENT PRICES)... 11 2.2 MARKET SHARES OF RETAIL OUTLETS, 2008 2014 (PERCENTAGE SHARE IN 2012 PRICES)... 14 2.3 RETAIL PRICE INFLATION BY TYPE OF RETAILER OUTLET: 2009 2014 (YEAR OVER YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGE)... 16 2.4 HIGH- AND LOW-SELLING MONTHS PER TYPE OF RETAIL OUTLET... 19 2.5 METHOD OF PAYMENT BY RETAILER OUTLET, 2012 (PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL)... 20 2.6 PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE OF RETAILER TO THE ANNUAL REAL GROWTH IN TOTAL RETAIL TRADE SALES: 2009 2013 (CONSTANT 2005 PRICES)... 24 3.1 RETAIL TRADE SALES FORECAST GROWTH RATES FOR (CURRENT PRICES)... 28 3.2 RETAIL TRADE SALES FORECAST GROWTH RATES FOR (CONSTANT 2010 PRICES)... 29 3.3 RETAIL TRADE SALES FORECAST (CURRENT PRICES)... 29 3.4 RETAIL TRADE SALES FORECAST FOR 2013 AND 2014 (CONSTANT 2010 PRICES)... 30 3.5 FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FORECAST FOR 2015 (CURRENT PRICES)... 31 3.6 ANNUAL GROWTH RATES IN FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (%), 2013 2015 (CURRENT PRICES)... 32 3.7 FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE DEFLATOR FORECAST, 2013 2015... 33 3.8 FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FORECAST, 2012 2015 (CONSTANT 2010 PRICES)... 34 3.9 FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FORECAST, 2013 2015 (CONSTANT 2012 PRICES)... 35 3.10 FORECAST OF FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE INCURRED BY CATEGORY AND PRODUCT/SERVICE GROUP (CURRENT PRICES), 2012 2015... 37 3.11 FORECAST OF FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE INCURRED AT RETAIL OUTLETS (CONSTANT 2010 PRICES)... 38
iv 3.12 FORECAST OF FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE BY PRODUCT GROUP THROUGH THE RETAIL CHANNEL, 2012-2015 (CURRENT PRICES)... 39 3.13 FORECAST OF FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE BY PRODUCT GROUP THROUGH THE RETAIL CHANNEL, 2011-2015 (CONSTANT 2010 PRICES)... 39
v LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 2.1 MARKET SHARES OF THE TWO LARGEST TYPES OF RETAILERS FROM 2005 TO 2014: GENERAL DEALERSAND CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR RETAILERS... 12 2.2 MARKET SHARES OF THE OTHER TYPES OF RETAILERS FROM 2005 TO 2014... 12 2.3 MARKET SHARES OF THE OTHER TYPES OF RETAILERS FROM 2008 TO 2014... 15 2.4 RETAIL PRICE INFLATION BY TYPE OF RETAILER OUTLET: 2009 TO 2014 (YEAR OVER YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGE)... 15 2.5 REAL ANNUAL GROWTH IN RETAIL SALES (2003 2014) (CONSTANT 2005 PRICES)... 23
vi PREFACE The Economic Research Division of the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) has conducted a forecast for formal retail sales in South Africa on an annual basis for more than 25 years. Building on the past tradition and working in collaboration with members of the BMR s Household Wealth Research Division, the 2015 research calendar once again includes a forecast for formal retail sales. However, in response to syndicate sponsor members demands, the 2015 forecast also includes the results derived from a probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model. As in 2014, the 2015 report includes innovative analyses featuring seasonal trend analysis and breakdowns of retail trade sales patterns according to outlet type. These additions are largely complementary to the traditional BMR forecast that mainly featured a forecast by product group and retail prices. By taking into account the prospects of both the 2015 local and national economies, the BMR estimates formal retail sales to grow by 7.7% in nominal terms and 2.7% in real terms during 2015. At an estimated 5.3% average price increase in retail items for 2015, total formal retail sales at current prices are expected to amount to R831 518 million. Retail outlets that are expected to show the highest growth rates (in nominal terms) are clothing, footwear and leather retailers (9.6% nominal growth), followed by retailer hardware outlets (9.5% nominal growth). Turning to the forecast of retail expenditure by product group in constant terms, the BMR expects the highest retail demand increases for nondurable recreational and entertainment goods (8.2%) and computer and related equipment (6.1%). Overall, semidurable goods are anticipated to increase by 8.0% while durable and nondurables are most likely to grow by 3.9% and 8.0% respectively. It is important to note that because Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) uses 2012 constant prices when reporting on retail expenditure, while the SA Reserve Bank uses 2010 constant prices when reporting on household consumption expenditure, both 2010 and 2012 constant prices are being used in this report. Although different base-years are used to determine constant prices, the underlying constant price trends are similar. The report was compiled by Prof DH Tustin, Prof CJ van Aardt and Mr JA van Tonder. The typing and technical layout was done by Mrs E Koekemoer (BMR Senior Research Coordinator) while Mrs M Nowak (BMR Senior Research Coordinator) was responsible for the language editing. Prof DH Tustin Head: Bureau of Market Research