5 Trends to Help You Maximize Self-Storage Profit and Facility Value R. Christian Sonne, MAI, MRICS Ray Wilson, MAI, CRE Cushman & Wakefield
Performance Performance-At-a-Glance Current Conditions Preliminarily Finding 4Q13 vs. 4Q12 New Supply Remains Very Limited Asking Rental Rates +2.3% Physical Occupancy +5.3% Rental Income +10.7% Demand Operating Performance Investment Market Increasing Continues to Improve 2013 Was Strongest in Recent History
Self-Storage Performance Index
New Supply - U.S. Census Self-storage Construction Put-In-Place (Millions of Dollars)
Rental Income vs. Historical Average (Nationwide All Facilities)
Physical vs. Economic Occupancy Trends
Asking Rental Rates REITs vs. Small Private Operators
Physical Occupancy REITs vs. Small Private Operators
Rental Income REITs vs. Small Private Operators (After Concessions)
REITs vs. SSDS Rental Income (Rental Income Seasonal Change)
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Forecasting the Future
Read - Option - Fast
Technology to Go Fast
Innovation to Play the Game
Self-Storage Data Reports Self-Storage Performance Quarterly Published quarterly National operating performance Supply and demand Construction pipeline Geographical demand trends Concession trends Operating performance by metropolitan statistical area (MSA)
Self-Storage Data Reports Self-Storage Expense Report 2013 Published annually Effective gross income and expenses ($/SF) Nationally and by NCREIF region and division
Self-Storage Data Reports National Rental Activity Report Published monthly Rental-rate trends Occupancy Rental activity (move-ins and move-outs)
Self-Storage Data Reports Metropolitan Statistical Area Report Publish this report for each of the top 50 MSAs Published quarterly Market conditions Performance Index Rental activity Occupancy Concessions Effective gross income and expenses ($/SF)
Self-Storage Data Reports Trade Area (3-Mile) Snapshot Report Published on demand Income Rental activity Occupancy Concessions Supply
Self-Storage REIT Performance
NAREIT Returns By Sector TOTAL ANNUAL RETURNS BY PROPERTY SECTOR (Returns in Percent) Office Industrial Retail Apartments Self Storage 1994 2.86 18.67 2.98 2.19 8.90 1995 38.80 16.21 5.10 12.26 34.40 1996 51.80 37.22 34.60 28.93 42.84 1997 29.01 19.02 16.95 16.04 3.41 1998-17.35-11.74-4.94-8.77-7.20 1999 4.25 3.90-11.77 10.73-8.04 2000 35.46 28.62 17.97 35.53 14.69 2001 6.65 7.42 30.42 8.66 43.24 2002-6.82 17.32 21.07-6.15 0.56 2003 34.01 33.14 46.77 25.49 38.14 2004 23.28 34.09 40.23 34.71 29.70 2005 13.11 15.42 11.80 14.65 26.55 2006 45.22 28.92 29.01 39.95 40.95 2007-18.96 0.38-15.77-25.43-24.82 2008-41.07-67.47-48.36-25.13 5.05 2009 35.55 12.17 27.17 30.40 8.37 2010 18.41 18.89 33.41 47.04 29.29 2011-0.76-5.16 12.20 15.37 31.62 2012 14.15 31.28 26.74 6.93 19.94 2013 5.57 7.40 1.86-6.20 9.49 Source Data: NAREIT Analysis - Calculated Based on NAREIT Data 5 yr Avg. Return '09-'13 14.58 12.92 20.28 18.71 19.74 5 yr Standard Deviation 12.42 12.09 11.54 18.49 9.66 10 yr Avg. Return '04-'13 9.45 7.59 11.83 13.23 17.61 10 yr Standard Deviation 23.97 27.89 25.51 24.50 17.94 15 yr Avg. Return '99-'13 11.20 11.60 14.85 13.77 19.48 15 yr Standard Deviation 22.03 24.22 23.97 21.68 18.72
Percentage NAREIT Returns By Sector 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Office Industrial Retail Apartments Self Storage 5 yr Avg. Return '09-'13 10 yr Avg. Return '04-'13 15 yr Avg. Return '99-'13
Occupancy & Average Rate Investment Trends 100 90 80 Self Storage Demand Metrics 12.0 10.0 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Cap Rate & Rentable SF Phys Occupancy (%) Avg Rate for 10x10 Unit ($) Avg Cap Rate (%) Rentable SF per Person
Investment Trends 700 Self-Storage Sales Trends 12 600 10 500 8 400 6 300 200 4 100 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 Total Sales: Average $/SF: Average Ro: NOI:
Number of transactions & Volume in Millions Self-Storage Transaction Activity 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Number of Transactions Transaction Volume (Millions) For the first time, single-asset trades made less than half of the sales transactions in 2013 in this sector. Given the overall size of this sector, consolidation will remain a long-term project.
Self-Storage Transaction Activity
Self-Storage Portfolio Activity 2012 & 2013 SELF-STORAGE PORTFOLIO SALES Sales Price NRA Price psf Pro Forma Cap Rate TTM Cap Rate Low $ 17,750,000 442,904 $ 40.08 5.25% 2.00% High $ 430,000,000 3,036,538 $ 305.08 8.98% 6.70% Average $ 160,918,475 1,343,952 $ 110.64 6.34% 5.32% 2012 Total $ 1,225,815,000 10,397,255 $ 109.64 6.70% 4.99% 2013 Total $ 1,509,799,080 12,449,925 $ 112.07 5.88% 5.59% In the sales arena, portfolios are in high demand as institutional investors look to aggregate assets and the industry slowly consolidates. In fact, the pricing gap is widening by as much as 100 basis points between overall cap rates for portfolio deals and those for single-asset trades, resulting in a premium for portfolio sales.
Total Maturing Loans in Millions CMBS Loans $160,000 CMBS Maturing Loans $8,000 $140,000 $7,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Self Storage Maturing Loans in Millions $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Maturing Loans Self Storage Loans maturing $0 Credit is increasingly available for buyers of self-storage assets. CMBS lenders issued $80.3 billion in 2013, up 82% from 2012. CMBS lender volume is forecast to reach $100-120 billion in 2014. [Source: C&W Capital Markets Update]
10-Year Treasury Interest Rate and Self-Storage Cap Rate 11 Treasury Interest Rate & Self Storage Cap Rates 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10-Year Treasury Interest Rate Average Self Storage Cap Rate Spread
Number of Starts Square Footage (000) New Construction Trends Total New Construction - Nationwide 40 1,200 35 30 11 1,000 25 11 8 800 20 7 7 8 14 7 9 7 9 8 600 15 26 400 10 5 18 14 15 16 17 3 9 18 19 18 22 22 14 200 0 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Starts New Alterations, Additions, or Renovations Total Square Feet 0
MSA Ranking MSA RANKING : UNDER-SUPPLIED Market Conditions - Regression: Conclusion Market Conditions - Index: Score Ratio of Household Income & Median 10x10 Non-CC Rent New Construction Renovations / Additions New York-Newark-Edison, NY-NJ-PA MSA under-supplied 124.27 1.84% 10 1 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA MSA under-supplied 116.62 2.02% 3 2 Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA under-supplied 114.31 1.76% 1 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA under-supplied 110.50 1.88% Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA MSA under-supplied 91.35 1.82% 1 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA MSA under-supplied 91.35 1.82% Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA under-supplied 75.24 1.24% Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Tonawanda, NY MSA under-supplied 69.06 1.65% 1 Richmond, VA MSA under-supplied 67.15 1.35% 1 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI MSA under-supplied 64.00 1.52% 2 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI MSA under-supplied 64.00 1.45% 2 1 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA under-supplied 63.18 1.13% Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN MSA under-supplied 62.10 1.32% 4 Rochester, NY MSA under-supplied 60.48 1.30% Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH MSA under-supplied 60.45 1.44% 1 Louisville, KY-IN MSA under-supplied 60.00 1.46% 2 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA under-supplied 57.75 1.14% Average 79.52 1.54% 3.4 1.1
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN MSA under-supplied 62.10 1.32% 4 Rochester, NY MSA under-supplied 60.48 1.30% Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH MSA under-supplied 60.45 1.44% 1 MSA Ranking Louisville, KY-IN MSA under-supplied 60.00 1.46% 2 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA under-supplied 57.75 1.14% Average 79.52 1.54% 3.4 1.1 MSA RANKING : EQUILIBRIUM Market Conditions - Regression: Conclusion Market Conditions - Index: Score Ratio of Household Income & Median 10x10 Non-CC Rent New Construction Renovations / Additions San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA equilibrium 132.88 1.50% 1 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA equilibrium 102.84 1.46% 2 1 Denver-Aurora, CO MSA equilibrium 101.78 1.73% 6 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL MSA equilibrium 96.24 2.22% 2 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA equilibrium 70.04 1.62% 13 1 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV MSA equilibrium 70.00 1.68% Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MS equilibrium 69.70 1.37% 3 1 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV equilibrium 69.03 0.91% 2 1 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA equilibrium 68.25 1.58% 1 New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA MSA equilibrium 66.00 1.38% San Antonio, TX MSA equilibrium 66.00 1.33% 1 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA equilibrium 64.00 1.21% 3 2 Orlando, FL MSA equilibrium 63.18 1.58% 1 Indianapolis, IN MSA equilibrium 60.72 1.29% Birmingham-Hoover, AL MSA equilibrium 59.80 1.27% Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA MSA equilibrium 59.48 1.27% 4 2 Kansas City, MO-KS MSA equilibrium 58.50 1.28% St. Louis, MO-IL MSA equilibrium 56.00 1.23% Pittsburgh, PA MSA equilibrium 53.90 1.29% Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC MSA equilibrium 52.50 1.25% 3 1 Average 72.04 1.42% 3.4 1.3
MSA Ranking MSA RANKING : OVER-SUPPLIED Market Conditions - Regression: Conclusion Market Conditions - Index: Score Ratio of Household Income & Median 10x10 Non-CC Rent New Construction Renovations / Additions San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA MSA over-supplied 127.60 1.60% 1 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA over-supplied 85.00 1.40% 9 7 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA MSA over-supplied 77.60 1.55% 1 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA over-supplied 69.70 1.72% 1 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN MSA over-supplied 66.00 1.41% 1 Salt Lake City, UT MSA over-supplied 64.80 1.36% 2 Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA over-supplied 64.35 1.18% 2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA over-supplied 61.20 1.17% 15 2 Oklahoma City, OK MSA over-supplied 59.80 1.24% Jacksonville, FL MSA over-supplied 59.40 1.42% Columbus, OH MSA over-supplied 58.96 1.16% 1 Memphis, TN-MS-AR MSA over-supplied 58.45 1.33% 2 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX MSA over-supplied 58.20 1.14% 1 Average 70.08 1.36% 3.8 2.8
Key Indicators CAPITALIZATION RATES (OAR) Survey Date Range Average PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q2 2011 6.75% 9.50% 7.50% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q4 2011 6.50% 8.75% 7.30% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q2 2012 6.50% 8.50% 7.00% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q4 2012 6.25% 8.50% 6.75% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q2 2013 5.75% 8.50% 6.55% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q4 2013 5.50% 8.50% 6.25% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey DISCOUNT RATES (IRR) Survey Date Range Average PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q2 2011 10.00% 12.00% 10.50% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q4 2011 9.50% 11.50% 10.25% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q2 2012 8.50% 11.00% 10.00% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q4 2012 8.50% 11.00% 9.75% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey 2Q 2013 8.50% 11.00% 9.50% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey 4Q 2013 8.25% 11.00% 9.25% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey OTHER INVESTOR SURVEY INFORMATION Survey Data Low High Average PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Q4 2013 Rent Change Rate 3.00% 6.00% 3.25% PwC Real Estate Investor Survey Expense Change Rate 2.00% 5.00% 3.00%
Self-Storage Classes
Self-Storage Classes Class A Facilities Located in one of the top 50 MSAs, usually with high barriers-to-entry Excellent location with access to attract tenants willing to pay rents in the upper percentile in the market place Superior construction and finish Characterized by above average maintenance and security Professional on-site and off-site management Class B Facilities Average location, access and visibility Construction quality ranges from average to good Maintenance and security ranges from average to good Full time on-site and competent off-site management Class C Facilities Secondary, less desirable locations with generally poor access and limited visibility Construction quality ranges from fair to average Maintenance ranges from fair to average with minimal or no security Generally managed by the owner and may not have an on-site manager Typically older facilities with growing functional and/or economic obsolescence
Self-Storage Valuation REVENUE AND EXPENSE ANALYSIS Physical Occupancy Economic Occupancy Net Rentable Area POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE Total Per SF Total Per SF Total Per SF Total Per SF Total Per SF Total Per SF Actual Rent (Occupied Storage Units) $ 645,067 10.93 $ 645,093 10.93 $ 655,423 11.11 $ 702,692 11.91 $ 713,700 11.53 $ 689,004 11.68 Rent Gain/Loss to Market - - - - - - - - - - 76,128 1.29 Base Rental Revenue - Storage Units $ 645,067 10.93 $ 645,093 10.93 $ 655,423 11.11 $ 702,692 11.91 $ 713,700 11.53 $ 765,132 12.97 Base Rental Revenue - Parking - - - - - - - - - - 7,056 0.12 Base Rental Revenue - Other - - - - - - - - - - - - Base Rental Revenue - Total $ 645,067 10.93 $ 645,093 10.93 $ 655,423 11.11 $ 702,692 11.91 $ 713,700 11.53 $ 772,188 13.09 Other Revenue 24,692 0.42 19,499 0.33 14,445 0.24 18,495 0.31 20,041 0.32 19,305 0.33 TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $ 669,759 11.35 $ 664,593 11.26 $ 669,868 11.35 $ 721,187 12.22 $ 733,741 11.86 $ 791,493 13.41 Vacancy and Collection Loss - - - - - - - - - - (69,256) (1.17) EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $ 669,759 11.35 $ 664,593 11.26 $ 669,868 11.35 $ 721,187 12.22 $ 733,741 11.86 $ 722,237 12.24 OPERATING EXPENSES 2011 Actual 2012 Actual 2013 Actual TTM 2014 Ow ner's Budget 87% 90% 94% 93% 92% 102% 99% 95% 96% 88% 59,010 59,010 59,010 59,010 61,890 C&W Forecast Year One Taxes $ 46,051 0.78 $ 39,943 0.68 $ 39,460 0.67 $ 35,006 0.59 $ 36,073 0.58 $ 44,612 0.76 Insurance 6,724 0.11 6,132 0.10 7,670 0.13 8,088 0.14 8,385 0.14 8,000 0.14 Repairs & Maintenance 13,469 0.23 20,706 0.35 36,963 0.63 20,440 0.35 25,572 0.41 26,000 0.44 Administration 31,323 0.53 30,468 0.52 26,657 0.45 23,413 0.40 29,546 0.48 29,000 0.49 On-Site Management 56,987 0.97 60,725 1.03 64,244 1.09 61,712 1.05 68,274 1.10 68,000 1.15 Off-Site Management 40,380 0.68 40,084 0.68 39,711 0.67 43,031 0.73 44,024 0.71 43,334 0.73 Utilities 5,546 0.09 5,730 0.10 6,723 0.11 7,121 0.12 6,665 0.11 7,000 0.12 Advertising 12,948 0.22 17,760 0.30 11,574 0.20 11,854 0.20 12,614 0.20 12,500 0.21 Miscellaneous 1,951 0.03 1,646 0.03 1,630 0.03 1,935 0.03 3,395 0.05 750 0.01 Ground Rent - - - - - - - - - - - - Total Operating Expenses $ 215,381 3.65 $ 223,192 3.78 $ 234,631 3.98 $ 212,599 3.60 $ 234,547 3.79 $ 239,196 4.05 91% 59,010 - NET OPERATING INCOME $ 454,378 7.70 $ 441,401 7.48 $ 435,237 7.38 $ 508,588 8.62 $ 499,194 8.07 $ 483,041 8.19 Compiled by Cushman & Wakefield Western, Inc.
Self-Storage Expense Report National Median $/SF Average $/SF % of Avg Exp T a xe s 1.08 1.27 27.0% Insura nce 0.11 0.18 3.9% Re pa irs & Ma inte na nce 0.34 0.38 8.0% Administra tion 0.45 0.48 10.2% On-S ite 1.02 1.11 23.6% Off-S ite 0.60 0.69 14.6% U tils 0.27 0.33 7.0% Adve rtising 0.21 0.26 5.5% Misce lla ne ous 0.00 0.01 0.2% 4.08 4.71 100.0% E ffe ctive Gross Income 11.65 Expe nse Ra tio 40.4%
Self-Storage Valuation SUMMARY OF REVENUE AND EXPENSES Stabilized Year For Direct Capitalization: POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE Annual $/SF % of EGI Actual Rent (Occupied Storage Units) $ 689,004 $ 11.68 Rent Gain/Loss to Market $76,128 1.29 Base Rental Revenue - Storage Units $ 765,132 $ 12.97 Base Rental Revenue - Parking $ 7,056 $ 0.12 Base Rental Revenue - Other $ - - Base Rental Revenue - Total $ 772,188 $ 13.09 Other Revenue $ 19,305 $ 0.33 TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $ 791,493 $ 13.41 Vacancy and Collection Loss $ (69,256) $ (1.17) 8.75% EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $ 722,237 $ 12.24 OPERATING EXPENSES Taxes $ 44,612 $ 0.76 6.18% Insurance 8,000 0.14 1.11% Repairs & Maintenance 26,000 0.44 3.60% Administration 29,000 0.49 4.02% On-Site Management 68,000 1.15 9.42% Off-Site Management 43,334 0.73 6.00% Utilities 7,000 0.12 0.97% Advertising 12,500 0.21 1.73% Miscellaneous 750 0.01 0.10% Ground Rent 0-0.00% Total Operating Expenses $ 239,196 $ 4.05 33.12% NET OPERATING INCOME $ 483,041 $ 8.19 66.88% Compiled by Cushman & Wakefield Western, Inc. DIRECT CAPITALIZATION METHOD Market Value As Is NET OPERATING INCOME $ 483,041 $ 8.19 Sensitivity Analysis (0.25% OAR Spread) Value $/SF Based on Low-Range of 5.50% $ 8,782,558 $ 148.83 Based on Most Probable Range of 5.75% $ 8,400,707 $ 142.36 Based on High-Range of 6.00% $ 8,050,678 $ 136.43 Reconciled Value $ 8,400,707 $ 142.36 LESS Capital Expenditure $ (21,363) $ (0.36) Adjusted Value $ 8,379,344 $ 142.00 R o unded to nearest $ 50,000 $ 8,400,000 $ 142.35
Self-Storage Valuation Assumptions Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Rent Grow th (Market) 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Rent Grow th (Income in place) 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% Other Income Grow th 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Vacancy & Collection Loss 8.75% 8.75% 8.75% 8.75% 8.75% 8.75% 8.75% 8.75% 8.75% 8.75% 8.75% Expense Grow th 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Tax Grow th 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Management % EGI (1) 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% Capital Reserves $/SF $0.12 $0.13 $0.13 $0.13 $0.14 $0.14 $0.15 $0.15 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE Actual Rent (Occupied Storage Units) $ 689,004 $ 711,397 $ 734,517 $ 758,389 $ 783,036 $ 808,485 $ 834,761 $ 861,891 $ 889,902 $ 918,824 $ 948,686 3.25% Rent Gain/Loss to Market $ 76,128 $ 78,412 $ 80,764 $ 83,187 $ 85,683 $ 88,253 $ 90,901 $ 93,628 $ 96,437 $ 99,330 $ 102,310 3.00% Base Rental Revenue - Storage Units $ 765,132 $ 789,808 $ 815,281 $ 841,576 $ 868,719 $ 896,738 $ 925,662 $ 955,518 $ 986,339 $ 1,018,154 $ 1,050,995 3.23% Self Storage Rental Rate/SF $ 13 $ 13 $ 14 $ 14 $ 15 $ 15 $ 16 $ 16 $ 17 $ 17 $ 18 3.23% Base Rental Revenue - Parking $ 7,056 $ 7,268 $ 7,486 $ 7,710 $ 7,942 $ 8,180 $ 8,425 $ 8,678 $ 8,938 $ 9,206 $ 9,483 3.00% Base Rental Revenue - Other $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Other Revenue $ 19,305 $ 19,884 $ 20,480 $ 21,095 $ 21,728 $ 22,379 $ 23,051 $ 23,742 $ 24,455 $ 25,188 $ 25,944 3.00% TOTAL POTENTIAL GROSS REVENUE $ 791,493 $ 816,960 $ 843,247 $ 870,381 $ 898,388 $ 927,297 $ 957,138 $ 987,939 $ 1,019,732 $ 1,052,548 $ 1,086,422 3.22% Vacancy and Collection Loss $ (69,256) $ (71,484) $ (73,784) $ (76,158) $ (78,609) $ (81,139) $ (83,750) $ (86,445) $ (89,227) $ (92,098) $ (95,062) 3.22% EFFECTIVE GROSS REVENUE $ 722,237 $ 745,476 $ 769,463 $ 794,223 $ 819,779 $ 846,159 $ 873,388 $ 901,494 $ 930,505 $ 960,450 $ 991,360 3.22% OPERATING EXPENSES Taxes $ 44,612 $ 45,950 $ 47,329 $ 48,749 $ 50,211 $ 51,718 $ 53,269 $ 54,867 $ 56,513 $ 58,209 $ 59,955 3.00% Insurance 8,000 8,240 8,487 8,742 9,004 9,274 9,552 9,839 10,134 10,438 10,751 3.00% Repairs & Maintenance 26,000 26,780 27,583 28,411 29,263 30,141 31,045 31,977 32,936 33,924 34,942 3.00% Administration 29,000 29,870 30,766 31,689 32,640 33,619 34,628 35,666 36,736 37,838 38,974 3.00% On-Site Management 68,000 70,040 72,141 74,305 76,535 78,831 81,196 83,631 86,140 88,725 91,386 3.00% Off-Site Management 43,334 44,634 45,973 47,352 48,773 50,236 51,743 53,296 54,894 56,541 58,238 3.00% Utilities 7,000 7,210 7,426 7,649 7,879 8,115 8,358 8,609 8,867 9,133 9,407 3.00% Advertising 12,500 12,875 13,261 13,659 14,069 14,491 14,926 15,373 15,835 16,310 16,799 3.00% Miscellaneous 750 773 796 820 844 869 896 922 950 979 1,008 3.00% Ground Rent - - - - - - - - - - - Total Operating Expenses $ 239,196 $ 246,372 $ 253,763 $ 261,376 $ 269,218 $ 277,294 $ 285,613 $ 294,181 $ 303,007 $ 312,097 $ 321,460 3.00% Operating Expense Ratio 33.1% 33.0% 33.0% 32.9% 32.8% 32.8% 32.7% 32.6% 32.6% 32.5% 32.4% -0.21% NET OPERATING INCOME $ 483,041 $ 499,104 $ 515,700 $ 532,846 $ 550,562 $ 568,865 $ 587,775 $ 607,313 $ 627,498 $ 648,353 $ 669,900 3.32% Capital Reserves $ 7,222 $ 7,439 $ 7,662 $ 7,892 $ 8,129 $ 8,373 $ 8,624 $ 8,883 $ 9,149 $ 9,424 $ 9,706 3.00% Capital Expenditure $ 21,363 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - -100.00% CAPITAL RESERVES $ 28,585 $ 7,439 $ 7,662 $ 7,892 $ 8,129 $ 8,373 $ 8,624 $ 8,883 $ 9,149 $ 9,424 $ 9,706-11.60% CASH FLOW BEFORE DEBT SERVICE $ 454,455 $ 491,665 $ 508,037 $ 524,954 $ 542,433 $ 560,492 $ 579,151 $ 598,430 $ 618,349 $ 638,930 $ 660,194 3.86% Implied Overall Rate 5.77% 5.96% 6.16% 6.36% 6.57% 6.79% 7.02% 7.25% 7.49% 7.74% 8.00% Cash on Cash Return 5.43% 5.87% 6.07% 6.27% 6.48% 6.69% 6.92% 7.15% 7.38% 7.63% 7.88% Year 1-10
Self-Storage Valuation Discounted Cash Flow Method PRICING MATRIX - Market Value As Is T erminal D isco unt R ate C ap R ates 8.00% 8.25% 8.50% 8.75% 9.00% 5.50% $ 9,149,226 $ 8,980,007 $ 8,814,714 $ 8,653,245 $ 8,495,500 5.75% $ 8,908,841 $ 8,745,116 $ 8,585,179 $ 8,428,933 $ 8,276,280 6.00% $ 8,688,488 $ 8,529,799 $ 8,374,773 $ 8,223,313 $ 8,075,328 6.25% $ 8,485,763 $ 8,331,707 $ 8,181,198 $ 8,034,143 $ 7,890,452 6.50% $ 8,298,632 $ 8,148,854 $ 8,002,514 $ 7,859,525 $ 7,719,798 Cost of Sale at Reversion: 2.00% Percent Residual: 57.78% R o unded to nearest $ 50,000 $ 8,350,000 Reconciliation FINAL VALUE RECONCILIATION As Is Value Per SF Income Capitalization Approach Discounted Cash Flow $ 8,350,000 $ 141.50 Direct Capitalization $ 8,400,000 $ 142.35 Final Value Conclusion $ 8,350,000 $ 141.50 Compiled by Cushman & Wakefield Western, Inc.
Self-Storage Valuation All-Cash and Leveraged Pricing Matrices All-Cash Purchase Price Capitalization Rate Cash-on-Cash Return IRR $ Amount $ PSF Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year 10 $ 8,850,000 149.97 5.46% 5.64% 5.83% 6.02% 6.22% 5.74% 6.13% 6.54% 7.22% 7.75% $ 8,750,000 148.28 5.52% 5.70% 5.89% 6.09% 6.29% 5.81% 6.20% 6.62% 7.30% 7.90% $ 8,650,000 146.59 5.58% 5.77% 5.96% 6.16% 6.36% 5.87% 6.27% 6.70% 7.39% 8.06% $ 8,550,000 144.89 5.65% 5.84% 6.03% 6.23% 6.44% 5.94% 6.34% 6.77% 7.47% 8.22% $ 8,450,000 143.20 5.72% 5.91% 6.10% 6.31% 6.52% 6.01% 6.42% 6.85% 7.56% 8.38% $ 8,350,000 141.50 5.78% 5.98% 6.18% 6.38% 6.59% 6.08% 6.50% 6.94% 7.65% 8.54% $ 8,250,000 139.81 5.86% 6.05% 6.25% 6.46% 6.67% 6.16% 6.57% 7.02% 7.74% 8.71% $ 8,150,000 138.11 5.93% 6.12% 6.33% 6.54% 6.76% 6.23% 6.66% 7.11% 7.84% 8.87% $ 8,050,000 136.42 6.00% 6.20% 6.41% 6.62% 6.84% 6.31% 6.74% 7.19% 7.94% 9.04% $ 7,950,000 134.72 6.08% 6.28% 6.49% 6.70% 6.93% 6.39% 6.82% 7.28% 8.04% 9.22% $ 7,850,000 133.03 6.15% 6.36% 6.57% 6.79% 7.01% 6.47% 6.91% 7.38% 8.14% 9.39% Leveraged (1) Acquisition Cost Cash-on-Cash Return Loan Fees & IRR (Hold) $ Amount $ PSF Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Amount Costs Equity Year 10 $ 8,850,000 149.97 2.68% 3.86% 4.38% 4.92% 5.47% $5,752,500 $57,525 $3,155,025 10.47% $ 8,750,000 148.28 2.71% 3.91% 4.43% 4.97% 5.53% $5,687,500 $56,875 $3,119,375 10.80% $ 8,650,000 146.59 2.75% 3.95% 4.48% 5.03% 5.60% $5,622,500 $56,225 $3,083,725 11.13% $ 8,550,000 144.89 2.78% 4.00% 4.54% 5.09% 5.66% $5,557,500 $55,575 $3,048,075 11.46% $ 8,450,000 143.20 2.81% 4.05% 4.59% 5.15% 5.73% $5,492,500 $54,925 $3,012,425 11.80% $ 8,350,000 141.50 2.84% 4.09% 4.64% 5.21% 5.80% $5,427,500 $54,275 $2,976,775 12.14% $ 8,250,000 139.81 2.88% 4.14% 4.70% 5.28% 5.87% $5,362,500 $53,625 $2,941,125 12.48% $ 8,150,000 138.11 2.91% 4.19% 4.76% 5.34% 5.94% $5,297,500 $52,975 $2,905,475 12.82% $ 8,050,000 136.42 2.95% 4.25% 4.82% 5.41% 6.02% $5,232,500 $52,325 $2,869,825 13.17% $ 7,950,000 134.72 2.99% 4.30% 4.88% 5.47% 6.09% $5,167,500 $51,675 $2,834,175 13.52% $ 7,850,000 133.03 3.02% 4.35% 4.94% 5.54% 6.17% $5,102,500 $51,025 $2,798,525 13.88% (1) Assumes 65% debt financing at an annual interest rate of 5.5% amortized over 30 years with loan fees and points of 1%.
Thank you! R. Christian Sonne, MAI, MRICS Ray Wilson, MAI, CRE Cushman & Wakefield 2020 Main Street, Suite 1000 Irvine, CA 92614 chris.sonne@cushwake.com ray.wilson@cushwake.com