CITY FLOOR REVIEW A floor-by-floor analysis of the City office market Q2 215
SECOND QUARTER REVIEW THE QUARTER IN NUMBERS Q ON Q Y ON Y Comment 377 floors available, totalling 2.85m sq ft 1% by floors (-3% by sq ft) -33% by floors (-42% by sq ft) Supply remained flat in Q2, having fallen 42% by volume over the course of a year. 65% of all floors on the market are classified as new or refurbished. 269 floors taken-up during Q2, totalling 1.63m sq ft 32% by floors (3% by sq ft) 6% by floors (-12% by sq ft) Another strong quarter of lettings, with significantly increased activity on mid-sized floors. The legal sector was the most active during Q2 accounting for 26% of take-up (by volume). 189 floors under offer totalling 1.22m sq ft -.5% by floors (-11% by sq ft) 5.6% by floors (-2.7% by sq ft) The amount of space under offer remains elevated, reflecting continued occupier confidence in the market and in the broader economic climate. 6,44 sq ft average size of floor taken-up 7,721 sq ft 7,214 sq ft Following the exceptionally large floorplates transacted in Q1, the average size of floor taken in Q2 fell considerably. The largest floorplates transacted were in, with an average size of just over 6,5 sq ft. 64 /sq ft City prime headline rents 63.5 per sq ft 6 per sq ft With take-up for Q3 expected to be broadly in line with Q2, the supply of available space will continue to be restricted. This in turn will exert further pressure on prime rents which we expect to finish the year in excess of 67.5 per sq ft. floors (5,374 sq ft) City office net absorption during Q2 215 96 floors 78 floors This is the sixth consecutive quarter of positive net absorption in the City.
DEMAND TAKE-UP BY POSTCODE 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..6.4.2. Million Sq ft Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 255 Source: Gerald Eve 279 Number of floors 257 24 269 By postcode, it was the increase in activity in and which drove the 3% uplift in space taken in the City during Q2. In, volumes were boosted by DLA Piper pre-letting 15, sq ft at 16 Aldersgate Street, and serviced office provider The Office Group committing to 41, sq ft at the White Collar Factory and,666 sq ft at 1 Angel Square. Serviced office providers have been particularly acqusitive during the first half of 215, accounting for 11% of total take-up in the City, as they capitalise on London employment growth growing at its fastest rate since the late 199s. It was however the traditional City occupier base which dominated take-up during Q2, with the legal, finance and insurance sectors together accounting for 54% of overall demand. Deals include Brit Insurance taking 5 floors (66,7 sq ft) at The Leadenhall Building, Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton taking 5 floors (6,115 sq ft) at 2 London Wall Place and Arthur J Gallagher taking 5 floors (53,345 sq ft) at 67 Lombard Street. TMT occupiers were less acquisitive during Q2 compared to Q1, perhaps due to a lack of appropriate and affordable space. Q2 215 TAKE-UP BY OCCUPIER SECTOR (SQ FT) (Excluding undisclosed tenants) Legal Finance TMT 13% Other Corporates Government Property 3% Insurance 26% 13% 4% Serviced Office Provider 5% Other Professional 5% 15% 16%
Q2 215 SUPPLY Here we detail our findings on the supply of floors by each postcode, indicating the number of available floors for each floor size category as well as the respective quality of each available floor. 377 floors 1% on Q1 SUPPLY 2.85m sq ft -3% on Q1 189 floors -.5% on Q1 UNDER OFFERS 1.22m sq ft -11% on Q1 28% ANGEL Despite the strong levels of take up in this sub-market, the number of floors on the market has increased for the third consecutive quarter. Several small, unrefurbished floors were returned to the market, although the proportion of new stock increased following the addition of 65 Goswell Road, due for completion at the end of 215. OLD STREET GOSWELL ROAD Floor size (sq ft) OLD STREET 1,-2,5 2,51-4, 4,1-7, 7,1-, CLERKENWELL ROAD HAC 37,925 sq ft,1-2, 59,93 sq ft 52,57 sq ft 2,1+ 9 8 2 Number of 7 available 3 floors 6 5 264,63 sq ft CHANCERY LANE A HOLBORN ST BARTHOLOMEW S HOSPITAL LONDON WALL FARRINGDON ROAD ST PAUL S FLEET STREET 61,214 sq ft ST PAUL S MANSION HOUSE Floor size (sq ft) MILLENIUM BRIDGE RIVER THAMES 1,-2,5 2,51-4, New Refurbished Unrefurbished City boundary Sub-market boundary Source: Gerald Eve Arrows indicate quarterly movement in the number of floors. 4,1-7, 7,1-,,1-2, 2,1+ 8 9 38,288 sq ft 2 Number of 7 available 3 floors 6 5 75,29 sq ft 24,986 sq ft 32,466 sq ft 94,16 sq ft 26,636 sq ft -9% Activity was fairly subdued during the quarter. However, despite take-up levels being below average supply still showed a quarterly fall as space was slow to be returned. It is only the schemes at 35 Chancery Lane and 5 Old Bailey which have been added to supply through the development pipeline during Q2.
LONDON WALL Floor size (sq ft) 1,-2,5 2,51-4, 4,1-7, 7,1-,,1-2, 2,1+ 8 9 198,94 sq ft 2 Number of 7 available 3 floors 6 5 327,741 sq ft 128,736 sq ft 147,778 sq ft 83,183 sq ft 3,226 sq ft -2% Strong levels of take-up during Q2 have further eroded the number of floors on the market. In contrast, the actual volume of space rose slightly with the addition of schemes such as 99 Clifton Street and 71 Fenchurch Street to availability. With over 8 floors currently under offer, further falls in availability are expected throughout 215. GREAT EASTERN STREET SHOREDITCH HIGH ST SPITALFIELDS -5% LOWER THAMES STREET RIVER THAMES ST KATHERINE DOCKS Floor size (sq ft) 1,-2,5 2,51-4, 4,1-7, 7,1-,,1-2, 2,1+ Following the letting of several floors at the Leadenhall Building and 67 Lombard Street, supply showed another quarterly reduction and the best space continues to attract significant interest. 43,175 sq ft 27,69 sq ft RIVER THAMES 9 116,333 sq ft 8 2 Number of 7 available 3 floors 6 5 2,917 sq ft 135,413 sq ft 149,868 sq ft
DEVELOPMENT AND RENTAL GROWTH OUTLOOK FLOORS IN THE DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..6 Million Sq ft 2 Number of floors 121 Given the continued confidence in the development market, we are seeing an increase in developers applying for planning permission with a view to starting on site speculatively, such as at 55 Gresham Street, 8 Fenchurch Street, 6/8 Bishopsgate and 15 Leadenhall Street. This will not affect the current restricted supply dynamics however, given the limited number of floors expected to be added to supply this year, and the improved, but still relatively small number of floors expected during 216..4 37 29.2. H2 215 In current availability H1 216 H2 216 H1 217 H2 217 Source: Gerald Eve CITY OFFICES TOTAL RETURNS AND COMPONENTS Until the current supply response from developers is able to meet demand, the environment of positive rental growth will continue. Supply is restricted, there has been a significant number of large lettings with more in the pipeline and the economy is fuelling occupier confidence and growth in employment. Prime rents have risen to 64 per sq ft during Q2 and we have seen the highest rent recorded in the City at the Leadenhall Building, where Affinity took the 44th floor at a reported rent of 9 per sq ft. Such deals are exceptional, but are emblematic of the pressures occupiers currently face. We are forecasting IPD rental growth of 9.3% this year and 6.5% in 216 as the occupier-driven phase of the cycle takes hold and rental growth drives overall total returns. 3 25 %, per year Phase 1 Investors Drive Returns > Low levels of development > Improving demand > Low levels of supply > Yield compression drives total returns Phase 2 Occupiers Drive Returns > Development resumes, but long lead times > Consistent levels of demand > Supply remains low > Rental growth drives total returns Income Return Yield Impact Rental Value Growth Total Return 2 15 5-5 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Sources: Gerald Eve, IPD
DEFINITIONS Availability Floorspace over 1, sq ft in size and available to move into within six months which may or may not be vacant but which is actively marketed by an appointed agent. We monitor availability in central London at an individual floor level as well as by the total volume of space. Each floor is assigned a floor size category and is graded for quality. The availability data covered in this report represents buildings within the postcodes,, and, as depicted in the map. The floor area in sq ft adopted throughout is the net internal area. Availability is accurate two weeks prior to the end of the quarter. Floors which are under offer but are yet to complete are not included in our analysis. Newly available space Space on the open market (including developments) which are within 6 months of completion. This includes units of secondhand space which are undergoing refurbishment. Requirement A declared requirement for office accommodation with appointed agents, which needs to be satisfied in the foreseeable future. Our requirements data covers all of the postcodes,, and, unless otherwise stated. If the requirement has a preferred size range, the average size of the requirement is used. Given requirements often include a range of targeted geographies, we have included the requirement for each of the sub-markets when analysing individual sub-markets, but, when calculating overall City requirements, duplicates are removed. Prime headline rents The rent being paid which may not take account of concessions such as rent free periods or other incentives. We have adopted the best achieved methodology and where there is no evidence; rents are recorded on the basis of the best hypothetical transaction which could be achieved at the end of that quarter. Our definition of a prime transaction covers a, sq ft office in a low rise, grade A building signed on a ten year lease. Incentives This refers to the concessions offered by a landlord to a tenant as part of the negotiation process. Incentives usually adopt the form of rent free periods, but can also be in the form of capital contributions or the fit-out of the building. Future supply This is essentially a review of development due to be delivered to the market and does not include space bought to the market in the future due to lease expiries or the natural churn of stock. We cover those floors over 1, sq ft in size which are being developed and are due to be delivered to the market. Refurbished: A floor which has been comprehensively refurbished and is of good specification, floorplate efficiency and image, but is in a building which is not new or been comprehensively refurbished. Unrefurbished: Poorer quality space, usually offered for occupation as is. Under offer Space which a prospective occupier has agreed in principle to occupy, but is most likely to not as yet be under any legal or contractual obligation to do so. Take-up Occupational transactions including offices let or sold to an occupier, developments pre-let or pre-sold to an occupier or an owner occupier purchase of a freehold or long leasehold. Quality of choice This is a subjective measure holistically assessing the appropriateness of current availability to modern office requirements. Whilst our figures may represent a large number of floors available in particular size categories or postcode geographies, the floorplate efficiencies or amenities on offer within this supply may not meet all the expectations of modern office tenants and the quality of choice would be lower. Floor / Floorplate As well as the total volume of space being marketed as available, we also monitor the number of floors which account for this total volume. We monitor whether it is a full floor or part floor which is being marketed, although for our statistics, we treat an individuallymarketed part floor as one floor. If a floor is capable of subdivision to accommodate two suites, but can likewise be occupied together, we use the total floor plate for that floor. Net absorption This measures the net overall balance of occupied space over a prescribed time period. We calculate net absorption by subtracting the change in available space (both by the number of floors and the overall volume of space) between two time periods from the amount of development completions added to the market within the same time period. For our calculation we assume that all available space is vacant on the premise that space that is marketed as being available is underused and likely to be vacated. Known sub-let space and lease renewals are not factored into net absorption except where the lease renewal includes the leasing of additional space, and then that additional space is counted. Pre-letting of space in non-existing buildings is not counted in net absorption until the development is completed and the tenant takes occupation. Floor quality New: Floor in a newly-developed or newly-refurbished building, including sub-let space in new buildings which have not been previously occupied.
CONTACTS Gerald Eve s City team provides specialist advice across a number of disciplines including agency, investment, lease consultancy, rating, valuation, planning and development and project management. To find out more about us and what we could do for you please visit our website (www. geraldeve.com) or contact the following people direct. CITY Simon Prichard Senior Partner Tel. +44 ()2 7653 6827 Mobile +44()7796 93334 sprichard@geraldeve.com Fergus Jagger Office Agency Tel. +44 ()2 7653 6831 Mobile +44 ()7787 558756 fjagger@geraldeve.com Andrew Mears Investment Tel. +44 ()2 7333 638 Mobile +44 ()7767 23381 amears@geraldeve.com WEST END Lloyd Davies Head of West End Agency Tel. +44 ()2 7333 6242 Mobile +44 ()7767 311 254 ldavies@geraldeve.com Paul Pride Office Agency Tel. +44 ()2 7333 6249 Mobile +44 ()7584 213455 ppride@geraldeve.com Graham Foster Lease Consultancy Tel. +44 ()2 7653 6832 Mobile +44 ()7774 823663 gfoster@geraldeve.com PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT Hugh Bullock Head of Planning and Development Tel. +44 ()2 7333 632 Mobile +44 ()7831 172974 hbullock@geraldeve.com Lisa Webb Planning Tel. +44 ()2 7333 6225 Mobile +44 ()7747 6739 lwebb@geraldeve.com Jeremy Randall Planning Tel. +44 ()2 7333 6328 Mobile +44 ()7768 617235 jrandall@geraldeve.com GERALD EVE S UK OFFICE NETWORK London (City) 46 Bow Lane London M 9DL Tel. +44 ()2 7489 89 London (West End) 72 Welbeck Street London W1G AY Tel. +44 ()2 7493 3338 Birmingham Bank House 8 Cherry Street Birmingham B2 5AL Tel. +44 ()121 616 48 Cardiff 32 Windsor Place Cardiff CF3BZ Tel. +44 ()29 238 844 Glasgow 1 West George Street Glasgow G2 2HG Tel. +44 ()141 221 6397 Leeds 1 York Place Leeds LS1 2DR Tel. +44 ()113 244 78 Manchester No1 Marsden Street Manchester M2 1HW Tel. +44 ()161 83 77 Milton Keynes Avebury House 21-249 Avebury Boulevard Milton Keynes MK9 1AU Tel. +44 ()198 68595 West Malling 35 Kings Hill Avenue West Malling Kent ME19 4DN Tel. +44 ()1732 229423 For more information on any of the facts and figures in this publication, please contact: Steve Sharman Tel. +44 ()2 7333 6271 ssharman @geraldeve.com Disclaimer & copyright This brochure is a short summary and is not intended to be definitive advice. No responsibility can be accepted for loss or damage caused by reliance on it. All rights reserved The reproduction of the whole or part of this publication is strictly prohibited without permission from Gerald Eve LLP. 7/15